Eric Karabell

  (3:01 PM)

Hello to all, and welcome to the latest fantasy sports chat session. We'll be talking baseball today, but feel free to ask about football as well. I am watching Dontrelle Willis and Pat Misch pitch themselves off a big league roster at the moment... but I do LOVE the spring training baseball! So, thanks for showing up and here we go......

Bob (MA)

Afternoon Eric. All things being equal, who's your preference as a keeper this year? Wright or Lincecum? Thank you for your thought of this. I enjoy reading your chats.

Eric Karabell

  (3:02 PM)

Thank you, Bob! I enjoy the chats, too. I'd keep Wright. I don't really understand why so many people think the Mets third baseman will never be the same; he was a top 10 in 2010, and could certainly do it again. I have Wright in my top 20 overall.. I do not have any starting pitchers in my top 20. That said, I rank Lincecum fifth among starters.

Steve (IND)

Boo hoo Peyton. On to more important matters:12-team keeper league (4 year keeper max) with 5 players to keep. I have Trout on my pre-draft roster...do I hold onto him in favor of currently productive players (like Hellickson) or release him into the wild?

Eric Karabell

  (3:04 PM)

I'll be honest, I thought the Peyton Manning press conference today was very well done. He really is a nice guy, a professional. He was and should have been emotional about leaving Indy, but it seemed to be handled well. I'm a big fan. Anyway, sure, I'd keep Trout because there is just so much starting pitching available, and I don't think Hellickson is a top 20 pitcher.

Peyton Manning (Destination Unknown)

Tough day for me, EK. Don't know where I go from here but, wouldn't I be out of my mind to go to an NFC team. After all, the road to the Super Bowl would always go through Rodgers, Brees and my little Bro. AFC is weak. Am I headed for Miami or will Houston show some footballs and grab me? Oh yeah ... I need a 3B for my roto baseball team. Zimmerman or Lawrie?

Eric Karabell

  (3:05 PM)

I wouldn't bet against Peyton being productive in 2012. I can't rank him top 10 at QB until I'm sure he's healthy and of course the team he lands with is relevant - if it's the Browns, for example, um no - but can you imagine him in Miami and playing Tom Brady twice a year! Wow! And I'm going with Lawrie over Zimm now. A month ago I didn't, but Lawrie is so impressive.

Eric Karabell

  (3:05 PM)

Nice job, Dontrelle. Walks and hits and you're in Triple-A in a month...

steve (PTown)

Rank these pitchers:Latos, Pineda, Gallardo

Eric Karabell

  (3:07 PM)

Pretty sure my ranks say Gallardo, Latos and then, not all that close, Pineda. Gallardo is really good, safe K guy and he's not changing teams/ballparks.

Rob (New York, NY)

Keeper league- It came down to cutting Hanley for $65 or Lester and Ryan Zimmerman for $29 and $36 respectively. I cut Hanley. Right, wrong, toss up?

Eric Karabell

  (3:07 PM)

Yeah, obviously it's a different type of league to have prices like that, but let Hanley go. Frankly, I'd let them all go for those prices!

Dan (Vermont )

Better keeper: Avila or j.montero?

Eric Karabell

  (3:08 PM)

As much as I like Montero, he's not catcher eligible yet and there's no assurance he gets those 10 games in April. Avila had a big season and should do it again. Go Avila.

steve (PTown)

Eric:I am in a points league that permits each team to keep 10 players from the previous year. I have both Napoli and McCann on my team. Is it foolish to keep both knowing that only one will play? I was thinking one or the other might be good trade bait

Eric Karabell

  (3:09 PM)

If those catchers are two of your top 10, I'd keep them and worry about repercussions later, like a trade. And couldn't you play one of them at utility? That's 2 of the top 3 catchers, and should be a nice advantage at the position, depending on the rules. In part it depends who you are cutting, though.

Bealie (Pennsylvania)

Monkees Rule - nice lyric references the other day1st Round, I have fourth pick - let's say that: CABRERA, KEMP, and ELLSBURY is gone - who would you pick next? I went Ryan Braun - what do you think?

Eric Karabell

  (3:12 PM)

Yeah, I had fun last Wednesday getting as many Monkees songs as I knew into the chat, to honor Davy Jones after his passing. As for the baseball part, we're doing a cool Twitter Draft right now (search #ESPN Fantasy and #twittermockdraft and see it!) I had the second pick, and after Cabrera went, I chose Ryan Braun. I couldn't take Ellsbury over Braun or Pujols. Take Braun! I said it before, will say it again, nobody knows IF he did anything... so I will not guess that his body is different or his numbers will regress. He's been good every season, and will be again.

Joe (Ann Arbor)

Hey Erik. Dan Haren has pitched at least 200 innings for the last 30 years. Do you see a slow decline for him? or do you see him producing for years to come.

Eric Karabell

  (3:13 PM)

Well, not 30 years, but he's had a nice run of durability! He's not Nolan Ryan! I don't see any reason to worry about injury. I'd expect 200 innings again...

Mike (SC)

What are your thoughts on quality starts vs. wins. Are there starting pitcher rankings that reflect quality starts?

Eric Karabell

  (3:14 PM)

Not sure if we have those ranks, but I can tell you I play in a league that counts QS and not wins and I really like it. How often does a guy go 8 innings and leave with the score 1-1 and you don't get a win and it's frustrating? Quality starts is a better, though not perfect, gauge of a strong performance.

E (CO)

Who has the higher ceiling between Hosmer and Lawrie? Would you opt for Lawrie over Hosmer simply because of position depth?

Eric Karabell

  (3:15 PM)

No. I don't think first base is deeper - at this time - than first base. I think Lawrie and Hosmer are so good, so special, wouldn't surprise me if both were first round picks by 2014. I'd prob go Lawrie though.

Sam (Suburbia)

I know your rankings say Romero > Pineda for this year, but would Pineda's upside sway you to keep him over Romero in a keeper league all things being equal?

Eric Karabell

  (3:16 PM)

Nope. It's not like Romero is old or sans upside himself. Romero is really good, too! I hope I am wrong about Pineda, and he's just fine in New York, but nobody knows.

Calvin (Hobbes' Tummy)

As much as you devalue pitchers in the first few rounds, do you believe it's important to get at least 1 SP early on? The only pitchers in the top 15 last spring that disappointed were Hanson and Jimenez, as I see it. (Johnson was at #16.)

Eric Karabell

  (3:18 PM)

Nope. Why is it important to have an anchor pitcher when four guys could act as No. 2 starters? It's about numbers. It's not like real life when you need an ace to stop losing streaks, or to pitch Game 1 in the playoffs... I'll take a CC or Gallardo if they slip, though...I think it's about value. It's always about that, no matter the fantasy sport. I can get my ace pitchers, closers, quarterbacks and shooting guards later!

avey (corvallis)

Eric, big fan...except can't you and Tristan do better than In'n'Out for dinner?!? Anyways, dynasty league, rather have: Price and Latos or Posey, Cain and Hultzen?

Eric Karabell

  (3:20 PM)

Really? I'm not sure there is anything better than In n Out burger for dinner... I had my burger animal style AND the fries animal style ... and oh was it excellent. Anyway, you had a question? They need In n Out in the Northeast... I'd go with Posey, Cain and Danny there. Nothing wrong with Price or Latos, but Cain is at that level, Posey a top-5 catcher, and I think Hultzen, even sans the upside most project, will have a big career.

devito (brooklyn)

i know you hate drafting closers, but how about keeping one. I have 4 keepers set kemp1, prince 2, stanton 3, sandoval 7....and now deciding between konerko in the 5th or kimbrel in the 12th?

Eric Karabell

  (3:21 PM)

Love Kimbrel, but not excited to keep him. They're still just saves, easy to get. I don't see value in keeping Konerko in the 5th though...there's nothing else to keep?

E (CO)

You've written about not giving up on Jason Heyward a few times. Do you think he outproduces Desmond Jennings this year?

Eric Karabell

  (3:22 PM)

No, I think Jennings will run so much and score so much that he'll be more valuable, but I like Heyward to bounce back. Pretend 2011 didn't happen for him.

The Whaler (Erie, PA)

Eric you are the best in the world at what you do. What are your projections on Eduardo Nunez should he get 350 - 400 ab's this year? Love that steals and pop potential!

Eric Karabell

  (3:24 PM)

You're very kind, I appreciate it. I think Nunez could steal 30 bases if he was a starter, getting 400 at-bats... but I also think A-Rod will play 130 games. And Nunez didn't exactly shine defensively. So let's say under 25 steals.

Patrick (NYC)

Are you taking a SS in the first 5-6 rounds?

Eric Karabell

  (3:25 PM)

Depends who is available and when. Took Tulo in an ESPN mock yesterday, but I can't say if I need a SS in round 5 I'll overdraft Alexei Ramirez or Jeter. Um no.

Chet (LA)

Is Yonder Alonso a keeper in a 12-team, 15-keeper league? He's not in the top 250 of THC's list.

Eric Karabell

  (3:26 PM)

He will so regret that! Yes, keep the Padres first baseman!

Mick (Rockville)

Please name the top five pitching staffs in MLB this year-think this determines some of the best potential closers for the year too

Eric Karabell

  (3:27 PM)

I don't agree. Sometimes the best teams don't generate nearly as many saves as mid-range teams like the Giants that don't score much. There's no correlation here. I mean, how many times has Mo Rivera led the AL in saves? Answer: 3 times in 15 seasons as closer.

E (CO)

Can punting saves be justified in a league that includes quality starts? Presumably, one can load up on starters to get more Wins, K's and QS right?

Eric Karabell

  (3:28 PM)

The theory is that no league would use quality starts and wins, though. I don't like to punt anything, frankly. Do it in May if you must, but in a draft, nope. Remember, starters give up more runs than closers, too.

Hunter (Pence)

Eric, as the ultimate critic for Philly baseball, do you expect top-10 OF potential from me this year? Push for over .300, 25+ homers, and few steals? Or revert to .282, 25 HR, 20-ish steals?

Eric Karabell

  (3:30 PM)

I spent quite a bit on Pence in the USA Today LABR-NL auction on Sunday night, more than I expected I would need to. Yes, when Ryan Howard misses at least half the season and Pence is the cleanup guy, he's on his way to 25-100 and a big season, perhaps his best yet. And it's not a Philly bias thing... he's good.

Chris (Rye, NY)

why has Wainwright dropped so much from the foufth or fifth best pitcher down to the twenties after tommy john is supposed to make you better and what are your thoughts on him

Eric Karabell

  (3:31 PM)

It doesn't make everyone better. It's still a serious injury and it takes some pitchers longer than others to return to a top level. Some guys don't get their command back for awhile. I have no major concerns about Wainwright, but to say TJ surgery makes you better isn't really accurate. It makes you better than when your elbow was shredded!

Keith (VA)

I lost out on the SS run but ended up with Dee Gordon. While I don't expect any bombs from him, can we realistically expect him to get on base enough to steal 40+?

Eric Karabell

  (3:31 PM)

He's so fast that even with a .300 OBP, which is about what I expect, he can indeed swipe 40 bases. My concern is he will not help a fantasy team in any other category when he hits .260 with no power.

Jimmy (NY)

with the numbers you believe Pence could put up, would you rank him better than McCutchen or within a dollar or two in an auction?

Eric Karabell

  (3:32 PM)

Poor man's McCutch... let's not go overboard. I don't think Pence will run much.

Patrick (NYC)

Talk about David DeJesus - can he make an impact in an OPS league?

Eric Karabell

  (3:33 PM)

Doesn't seem to me to have much power, but in an OBP league, perhaps. He should lead off. If the Cubs go with Soriano leading off, that's just strange. DeJesus isn't much of a slugger, so a .400 slugging with a .350 OBP isn't a great OPS.

Clyde (Phoenix, AZ)

I focused on hitting early as you recommended and built a strong batting lineup. My top three starters are Madison Bumgarner, Matt Moore, and Jordan Zimmerman. Can my team flourish with these three at the top of my rotation?

Eric Karabell

  (3:34 PM)

Absolutely. One of them could easily break into the top 10 starters...they get Ks. It's the right thing to do!

Vinny (NYC)

How many guys hit 40+ HRs this year?

Eric Karabell

  (3:34 PM)

Just Joey Bats. Perhaps Giancarlo. It's hard to hit 40 home runs these days...

Bealie (Pennsylvania)

I know you support BERKMAN this year, but why so much hate from other espn guys?

Eric Karabell

  (3:35 PM)

Can't really explain. I'm not a hater! I think they point to his age and still recall his 2010 season, and think last year was a fluke. I don't think he'll be that awesome again, but solid. And I have no qualms drafting older players at a discount.

Nick (Yardley, PA)

Perhaps Giancarlo? Some analysts are predicting 50 from him. Care to discuss your expectations for Stanton? Thanks

Eric Karabell

  (3:37 PM)

He is what he is, but some of his value is dependent on the new ballpark, and we just don't know whether the new place will be like the old place. I doubt it's like Coors Field. Still, I see a breakout season and 110 RBIs.

Chuck (Durango)

What do you think of Melancon? My league counts holds.

Eric Karabell

  (3:37 PM)

I think he's kind of average, to be honest, and if Dan Bard does NOT win a rotation spot, then it's Bard and not Melancon getting the holds and potential saves for when Bailey is hurt. But that's just my opinion.

Jimmy (NY)

So McCcutchen will steal 15 more bases than Pence. Pence should have 15 more rbis, 10 more runs, more homeruns and 10 points higher in batting average. Thats not a wash to you?

Eric Karabell

  (3:38 PM)

I don't buy the difference in power numbers there. McCutchen is still improving as well. Why can't McCutch hit .280 or .290? And Philly's lineup after Pence isn't exactly great, so the differnece in runs... just sayin', I'd still go McCutch here. He can break out.

Patrick (NYC)

Is this the year that Nelson Cruz finally stays healthy? If so, his production is first-round worthy, right?

Eric Karabell

  (3:39 PM)

Health is a skill and I think Cruz has proven that health isn't something he thrives in. So I doubt he plays in 150 games ever.

Ian (SC)

Please tell me I'm not an idiot: I kept Hosmer and Moore over Harper and Trout in a keep-five league. Players go up two rounds per year and they'd be in the same slot (12-14). I figure Hosmer and Moore are enough ahead that by the time the other two are productive, they won't be bargains. Right? Right....?

Eric Karabell

  (3:40 PM)

Well, you minimized risk, and the players you kept are also superstars. I probably do the same thing there.

Mike (SC)

What pitchers will be sleepers in QS leagues?

Eric Karabell

  (3:42 PM)

Tends to be pitchers that get a lot of innings but don't win as much as top choices, and that's why they slip in drafts. For example, last year only 2 pitchers had more QS than Cain. But he never wins a lot. Guys like Buehrle and R.A. Dickey were unheralded in QS last season. Each had more QS than Carpenter, Price, Dan Hudson and Latos!

Patrick (NYC)

Who is the one guy that you absolutely must have on your team this year?

Eric Karabell

  (3:43 PM)

Nobody. I never enter a draft thinking that way.

Adam (Newtown, PA)

I've seen Chris Carpenter falling late in drafts. Are you concerned about his age/mileage or would you draft him w/ relative confidence?

Eric Karabell

  (3:44 PM)

Not concerned about him. I don't think pitchers like him, smart ones coming off consecutive seasons of at least 235 innings, just fall apart. It's not like he barely made 200 innings...

paul (MN)

Would you rather have PEDROIA/CARGO/Hanley or Pedroia/CARGO BAUTISTA?

Eric Karabell

  (3:44 PM)

Wouldn't it just be easier to say Hanley or Bautista? Take Bautista!

Jason (Parker, CO)

Any concerns that recent surgeries to Markakis, Hart or Crawford have season-long affects? Thanks.

Eric Karabell

  (3:45 PM)

Only Crawford. Knee injuries heal easier than wrist injuries... I wouldn't go near Crawford in the spot he's going so far. Hart if he slips I would. And Markakis I'm not terribly concerned about.

Benny (Burbank)

Do you see Kendrys Morales as game-ready by opening day? And if so is he a regular in that lineup with Trumbo and Abreu there (for now)?

Eric Karabell

  (3:46 PM)

I don't think he's ready in a month. I think Abreu is their DH until he underperforms, and Trumbo sees a major reduction in playing time, though he is also hurt. When Morales is ready, and it might be awhile, he should play over Abreu.

Shaun (Boston)

EK hates pitching...in a dynasty league would you trade Kershaw for Hosmer or Lawrie? They that special?

Eric Karabell

  (3:47 PM)

I don't hate pitching. It's a value game. And I'd be fine keeping Kershaw.

Bill (NY)

If Bourn is one of your keepers can you otherwise punt steals and keep a lesser player who does other things?

Eric Karabell

  (3:48 PM)

Not really. I don't think 60 steals wins any league's SB category. Why keep a lesser player under any circumstances?

Tim (Colorado)

You never answer pitching questions! Are you steering clear of Hanson this season-too much risk?

Eric Karabell

  (3:48 PM)

Yep, there's that word "never" again! I wouldn't say steering clear, but certainly I won't draft Hanson where he is going. Lot of risk.

CB (Kansas City, KS)

Who do you think hits more HR's this season Harper or Lawrie?

Eric Karabell

  (3:49 PM)

Harper isn't making the team out of spring training. Lawrie hits 25 homers, at least.

Patrick (NYC)

Do you think Tsuyoshi Nishioka will be rosterable at any point this season?

Eric Karabell

  (3:49 PM)

Nope. Not a fan. And awful defensively... one would think the Twins noticed that.

Kevin (Inland Empire, CA)

How early does Joe Mauer become a steal?

Eric Karabell

  (3:50 PM)

After the top 100 or so.

paul (ny)

Arod's final numbers this year? 280/30/100?

Eric Karabell

  (3:50 PM)

Absolutely. People let their hatred for him alter his rankings...

Steve (Denver)

Hey EK - Is this the year Colby Rasmus develops some consistency? Can he go 20-20?

Eric Karabell

  (3:50 PM)

I think he hits 25 home runs, but don't count on the speed.

Chris (SF)

More HR's Rasmus or Boesch??

Eric Karabell

  (3:51 PM)

Rasmus has more power, but Boesch should score many runs hitting second ahead of Cabrera/Prince.

The Whaler (Erie, PA)

How do you think the probably 32 year old Ubaldo will do this year for the Tribe? Post hype sleeper or just complete disaster?

Eric Karabell

  (3:52 PM)

I'm guessing he will not end up on any of my teams... partly due to where he's being drafted, but I'm not a fan.

Tim (Colorado)

If that's AROD's line shouldn't he be ranked higher?

Eric Karabell

  (3:52 PM)

Well, I rank him higher. I can't speak for anyone else's rankings.

Vinny (NYC)

In an auction, how true do you stick to your $ values? Will you go over based on need (position or statistic)?

Eric Karabell

  (3:53 PM)

Yep, all the time. It's about building a team, and if you have to spend a bit more on certain players, so be it. You'll find that some of your targets will also go cheaper. I wrote about my LABR-NL team today... some of those prices I could not have envisioned paying before it started.

Damon (Mo)

Motte could realistically be a top __ closer by years end.

Eric Karabell

  (3:53 PM)

The way he pitched last season, and assuming he keeps the job with this new regime, top 10.

Patrick (Chicago)

How bout some love for Patrick's in other cities? Where does Hosmer rank among 1B this season....below the elite guys but above solid, but aging, guys like Tex & Konerko?

Eric Karabell

  (3:54 PM)

I have him in between Teixeira and Konerko. But obviously better in keeper/dynasty leagues.

Jeff (Portland, ME)

Is Mark Reynolds a better grab than Moustaka, Freese, Gamel or Morel? The average is SCARY, but the bombs are so pretty.

Eric Karabell

  (3:55 PM)

There's ample proof that a fantasy team can overcome a low batting average or two like Reynolds, but I personally avoid hitters like him, even if there's a 35-homer season pending.

Tim (Tampa)

How much of an impact will Trout make this year?

Eric Karabell

  (3:56 PM)

Unfortunately, I don't think he gets 300 at-bats. The Angels have too many hitters that need to play due to salary. Not my call.

Mike (WI)

EK - love your analysis, but we never see results of your wisdom. Can you disclose how many league championships your insight has given you over the last few seasons?

Eric Karabell

  (3:58 PM)

Well, it's tough to answer this without appearing like a bad guy. I've won leagues. I think there's more to winning a league than simply knowing your stuff, though. But all I can say is I follow baseball very closely, and I do just fine, and hopefully those that ask questions of me are satisfied with the answers. That said, I preach that everyone should think for themselves. If I say Braun over Pujols, and you really want Pujols, then take Pujols.

E (CO)

Buster Olney stated yesterday that it looks like Melky Cabrera has figured it out and that 2011 wasnt a fluke. Your thoughts?

Eric Karabell

  (3:59 PM)

Well, I don't really know what "figuring it out" means, but I think Cabrera can be productive, but the numbers have to slip some now that he's in San Fran.

John (NJ)

Would you trade Greinke for Asdrubal in a keeper league?

Eric Karabell

  (3:59 PM)

Nope.

Greg (Ellicott City)

Please pick my last dynasty style keeper: BJ Upton, Wieters or Harper. Thanks.

Eric Karabell

  (4:00 PM)

Ha... I would say Harper, Wieters and then BJ Upton.

Bealie (Pennsylvania)

You ROCK Eric! Love your podcast and wit - keep it up man!

Eric Karabell

  (4:00 PM)

I will try. Thanks!

Eric Karabell

  (4:01 PM)

Oh, look at the time. OK, time to roll and see if the Phillies can score 9 runs in the bottom of the ninth. (Not that it matters in March!). Anyway, thanks for showing up and asking questions, have a great day and I'll be back chatting in this time slot next Wednesday! Adios!