Chat with Tristan Cockcroft
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Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:02 AM)
Good morning everyone! Let's get right to your questions...
Andrew Luck (Indy)
got some time to kill before my new job starts... drop the corpse of Alexei Ramirez for Allen Craig?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:03 AM)
In terms of offensive upside, Craig's is greater. This is a matter of positional needs/scarcity; Ramirez is a tough player to cut because of the lack of depth at shortstop. If you can get by without him, by all means, give it a shot. I'm guessing it's a fairly shallow league.
Dan (NY)
How long is it going to take for Craig to get every day ABs once he comes back?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:06 AM)
Following up, there are opportunities on that team, what between first base and right field, especially in times either Lance Berkman or Carlos Beltran is sidelined by injury (I expect both to miss games this season). So let's say initially, the Cardinals work him in slowly. Maybe he starts 3-4 times a week. But based upon his bat, I think he should factor in regularly within a couple of weeks.
Randy Wolf (currently somewhere in San Diego)
Will I pitch well tonight? My career numbers against San Diego really aren't all that great....
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:11 AM)
They're not? Hey, sure, he's got a near-four ERA in his career at Petco. But remember, the Padres aren't exactly the same team he used to face back in the day; among the individuals, Mark Kotsay (1.132 OPS) and Orlando Hudson (.955) are the ones who handle him best. Cameron Maybin, who is off to a miserable start, is 3-for-3, and Chris Denorfia homered in his only at-bat. Are you really that bothered by those stats? Wolf's hardly an elite fantasy play at Petco, but he's fine for streaming.
Billy (NYC)
Two call up questions, is Harper up for good? And when do we see Bauer?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:13 AM)
With Bryce Harper, it's all tied to performance. If he hits, he's not going back to the minors. There's no point now. But color me skeptical; maybe .260-15 will keep him in the bigs, and perhaps it should, but I stress the considerable downside in a 19-year-old. This is a challenge so few players have faced, and even fewer have met.As for Bauer, beats me. Doesn't sound like the "24" movie is happening, depressing as that is.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:13 AM)
In all seriousness, Pat Corbin's promotion to start today signals that the Diamondbacks do, in fact, want to wait a little longer on TREVOR Bauer (who I know was the true Bauer to which you referred). I think it's time to adjust that arrival ETA to about June 1. But it's coming soon.
Flynn (DC)
What is a good rule of thumb in comparing hitter versus pitcher value in your rankings. I'm trying to determine what grade of hitter would be a fair trade offer for Matt Moore. I think he's ranked around 40th in 60 ft. Thanks.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:15 AM)
Well, remember that it's 100 starting pitchers ranked, and 90 pitchers -- total pitchers, not just starters -- start in a standard ESPN league at any given time. Meanwhile, 125 hitters are ranked and you start 130 in ESPN standard. So we're talking about, say, a starting pitcher ranked around 50-60 being worth about the same as one of the bottom-ranked hitters. If it's a No. 25 starter? Probably worth, ballpark, a top-50 hitter.
Mike (Corus)
Mark Renoylds is killing me this year! Is it time to cut him or should I bench him and hope he still hits 30 HRs?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:16 AM)
I'll take a closer look, but Reynolds is the kind of player who was going to be streaky, just like this, in the first place. I'm not sure why this is terribly surprising to anyone.
Tom (Portland)
Hamilton likely won't be playng today. It is still nuts to stream Drabek vs Texas?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:17 AM)
Yes. The Texas Rangers' lineup is about so much more than merely Josh Hamilton. AL-only owners might have to use Drabek, because of a lack of viable alternatives, but he does not get my streamer's approval.
Terry (St. Louis)
Actually Hamilton said he probably will play today.Thoughts on Scherzer?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:18 AM)
Regardless, it's a bad matchup. That is completely the point. Whether you see Hamilton in there or not, Drabek is someone to avoid today.As for Max Scherzer, I'll cover him in more detail in tomorrow's "60 Feet Six Inches," so this one will be brief. Increased velocity, but also increased walk rate. I'm puzzled. But I'm also quite concerned at this point. He's dealt with so many rough patches now in his career that we can't simply write it off.
Robert (Texas)
General thoughts on Wade Miley? Looks like he's had some fortunate opponents. Trust him against the Mets on Friday?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:19 AM)
Matchups pitcher, simply put. Slider to get lefties, changeup for righties, but lack of anything truly overwhelming. In other words, against middling-and-below offenses, sure, go for it. Mets qualify.
Ruby (Seattle)
latest on Swisher?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:21 AM)
Nick Swisher is going to miss at least Monday's game, by all accounts, and I've heard the phrase "a few," which means it in all likelihood won't be just one. Plan accordingly. Shallow mixed: Probably time to sit him for the week.
Pedro (Atlanta)
Santiago, Thornton and Reed. Who ends with more SVs?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:22 AM)
I think Addison Reed will lead the 2012 Chicago White Sox in saves, Hector Santiago will get the next save chance and Matt Thornton will be the most valuable of the three through Memorial Day. Those are all "correct" answers to a White Sox bullpen question; the answers will be different relative to your league format. I think right now, Thornton is probably the smartest overall play. But you cannot get cozy, not in the slightest.
Mike (NYC)
Thoughts on Tony Campana?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:23 AM)
Hotshot speedster, but not sold yet on his bat. Pick him up and enjoy this while it lasts, but last year, a similar thing happened and he quickly cooled. Again, don't get cozy.
Erik (PA)
Better start this week: Lilly @ COL or Duffy vs NYY?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:23 AM)
If you must, Ted Lilly at Coors. I would hope that you don't have to.
Norm (New York, NY)
What kind of numbers are you projecting for Trout?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:24 AM)
I think he'll hit in the .260s, perhaps steal bases in the 25-30 range. Something in the neighborhood of Peter Bourjos' 2011 stats feels about right. Maybe slightly lower Player Rater rank overall.
Ryan (Minnesota)
How much should I value Giancarlo in a keeper league? His owner in my league is looking to trade him. He has a decent contract over the next two years ($17 and $20). How much of a factor is the ballpark vs his knee? In your opinion, which is the greater worry?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:26 AM)
The knee is the greater worry, because players with the kind of raw power that Giancarlo Stanton has can clear any wall. Besides, if Marlins Park plays as such an extreme pitchers' park, in a keeper league, wouldn't you consider the prospect that the team might bring in the fences a la Citi Field before long? I say good time to buy in a dynasty/keeper league, but the knee has me growing increasingly hesitant in redraft.
Tim (Calgary)
Where will Brett Anderson debut on 60ft6inches when he returns?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:27 AM)
He'll probably debut a couple weeks in advance of his 2012 debut, and I'd think he'll rank somewhere in the 50s in the edition closest to his actual debut date.
Chili (Big Bowl)
Do you think Downs keeps the closer gig for the rest of the year?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:28 AM)
I think he has the skills to do so, but I think the Angels would probably prefer to return him to a setup role with Jordan Walden back in the ninth, if they had their choice. Downs might force their hand; it's why I'd invest a noticeable amount in him, but not a back-breaking amount. He's going to be great in ERA/WHIP/K's either way.
Tom (Brooklyn)
Is it me, but Josh Johnson is getting "singled to death" I saw the recaps and its all single or "soft hits" What gives?? Bad Luck???
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:32 AM)
All I can say to that is that Josh Johnson has surrendered a .308 batting average on "soft contact," which is fourth-highest in the majors, and 20 hits on those -- 19 singles and one double -- which tops all pitchers.There might be something to that, and yes, I'd be careful not to read too much into his struggles yet.
Robert (Texas)
Johnny Damon is back! Assuming similar numbers to last year (16 HR, 19 SB), would you drop Reimold, Schafer, or Cody Ross for him?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:34 AM)
Ross is the name that stands out here, but I think I'd stick with what you've got. Damon is most likely going to be stuck in a platoon situation, meaning his counting numbers (R, RBI especially) will be capped, and you could probably pick and choose between players like him, Reimold and Ross as matchups and streaks dictate.
Jay (WI)
What is going on with the Dodgers closing situation? I have Guera, but don't want waste a roster spot on Jansen if I don't have to.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:35 AM)
I think you have to. Jansen has phenomenal skills, has been the one the Dodgers have entrusted with a larger workload of the two, and Guerra has shown obvious struggles at times so far. It's a must-handcuff situation, and I think Jansen is going to lead the Dodgers in saves from this point on. Frankly, I've felt since the winter that he'd wind up the 2012 team leader.
Arlo (Toronto)
Who will win the Stanley Cup?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:35 AM)
Blues over Rangers. Unless one of them loses.
Patrick (NYC)
What are your thoughts on Pedro Alvarez's recent hot streak?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:36 AM)
It's just that: A hot streak. Enjoy, cringe in fear at the next whiff streak that's inevitably coming.
Tyler Moore (Wash)
Am I startable in an ESPN standard league?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:36 AM)
No, but NL-only owners need familiarize themselves with this name. If Moore becomes the more valuable Nationals weekend pickup than Bryce Harper, I won't be that surprised.
Dan (Concord, NH)
Love the streamer's delight addition to the pitching columns. So far so good from Wei-Yin Chen. Does he crack your 60' 6" list this week? All that said, don't stream him this week vs. BOS, correct? Even in an AL only league? But feel free to talk more about Chen!
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:38 AM)
Thank you, Dan. Chen is still streaming/AL-only material, partly because his strikeout rate still isn't that encouraging and partly because I don't see him working quite as deep into games as I'd like (the A's matchup notwithstanding). I'd sit him for sure against the Red Sox.
Bobby (Boston)
NEED trade advice! I get Berkman and Andrus but would give up Billy Butler and Grant Balfour - which side are you on?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:41 AM)
I'd take the former side. Part of it is that I don't estimate the first basemen as substantially different in rest-of-season value, and if I can trade a closer for a shortstop like Andrus, I do it.
Arlo (Toronto)
And who will be in goal for this winning St. Louis team?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:41 AM)
Jacques Plante?
Ale (Cubicle)
TC!! time for the Pick-A-Side game.... Posey / Heath Bell or McCann / Guerra? who ya got? Thanks
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:42 AM)
Former side. Very interesting challenge trade there.
Andy (Miami)
Who is this Gerrado Parra guy? Seriously what is going on there?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:43 AM)
Good glove, decent speed, the kind of player an NL-only owner should be happy to have because he didn't cost particularly much. I don't expect him to keep this up, though.
Frank (DET)
What does Drew Smyly have to do to get some love on the 60'6"??? Dude has shut down NYY, TEX, and TB already. 9+ k/9...
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:43 AM)
Oh, he will. He will.
Troy (NH)
Drop Liriano for J. Saunders?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:44 AM)
I cannot believe I'm going to say "yes" to that, but based upon some of the stats I've researched for tomorrow's column, "yes" looks like the shockingly correct answer. Liriano is a mess, Saunders could help at the very least in the short term, but that spot might belong to a third, unnamed player before too long.
Jimmy (LA)
One last try. Trade pending and owner might cancel it. I know it is usually a good idea to take hitters over pitchers. But I have Heyward, Pence, Jennings already in the OF and HanRam at SS. Do I trade Willingham, Jeter, and A. Gordon for Hanson and Bumgarner in a points league?????
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:45 AM)
I would feel a bit more comfortable with a safer long-term pitching investment than Tommy Hanson, but that seems like a fair enough deal to me considering your situation. I'd advise you monitor Hanson closely and attempt a sell-high deal of him at some point soon...
Mike (Cubby Hole)
Saves leader for Angels - Walden or Downs?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:46 AM)
Jordan Walden from today forward; I am merely stressing Downs' ability to grab that job and run with it, but I think the team's plan has Walden more than likely returning to the ninth before long.
Brian (Ontario, Canada)
Chad Billingsly. Is he pitching as good as his numbers indicate? can he keep it up to some degree?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:47 AM)
He's on the list for tomorrow, unfair to completely answer that when I'll have something in-depth then. My gut reaction was that his matchups were awfully soft, but his lowered walk rate does support somewhat that he's legit.
Don (NY)
Just traded for Peavy. I'm a believer, are you?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:48 AM)
So long as he stays healthy, yup! No real worries otherwise.
Douglas (Pittsburgh)
Tristan, Anthony Bass. Your thoughts on him ROS?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:49 AM)
Underrated matchups candidate. Petco is a real boon to him, getting more K's than expected, as well as a healthy ground ball rate. Let's say NL-only worthy for now, streaming in mixed.
Andyo (Omaha)
What are your thoughts on billy butler is numbers and the "power" legit or a sell high guy?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:50 AM)
I believe in his power to the point that he could finish in the mid-to-high 20s in home runs. Any greater expectation puts him in the sell-high class, but that's still a very good player.
Pat (Bronx)
More respect for LaHair please - guy just flat out rakes
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:52 AM)
LaHair hasn't started a single game against a left-handed pitcher, and he's a lifetime .150 hitter against that side. Yeah, it's a small sample, 40 ABs, but that bothers me, that he's effectively a platoon first baseman. A role like that at a position like that is an obstacle, period. But for the record, his hot start is encouraging. Keep your fingers crossed the Cubs let him just play, every day.
Wade (Nashville)
Any thoughts on Danks and why he's struggling?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:53 AM)
Quick glance said throwing slightly slower and with less command, but I'm going to take a closer examination of him for tomorrow's 60F6I as well. Gut says be a little concerned.
Joe (California)
What is to much to give up to get Darvish? I was thinking Weeks and Craig (soon to come of the DL).
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:53 AM)
I don't think that's enough!
Brian (NYC)
Thoughts on Chris Davis. Is this just one of his hot streaks?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:56 AM)
Two things support Davis' candidacy for a breakout: His strikeout rate is the lowest it's been since he was in Double-A ball -- that's not to say it's phenomenal, merely improved -- and he's hitting .333 against lefties, assuring he won't be locked into a platoon. I've historically been a Davis fan from the skills angle; I've also developed a healthy fear of him because of all the disappointments he has had so far. So I'm buying, but at low cost for now.
Joe (NYC)
RE: Challeng trade above... what do you mean by "challenge trade?"
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:58 AM)
"Challenge trade" refers to two commodities, generally speaking, that are struggling, and you swap them for one another in the hopes that maybe new surroundings would help. In that trade, I was referring to the closers, Bell and Guerra, whose values have come into question recently.
Nate Ravitz (06010)
You most certainly wavered on your Jansen call early in the season, and Pod Vader probably has the the tape
Tristan H. Cockcroft (12:00 PM)
Certainly I did, and certainly it was the right thing to do. Anyone who cannot waver when evaluating the saves market is not going to win the saves category. It is a flighty stat, it is almost impossible to give blanket answers that are "correct," and you need to be incredibly reactionary. Just the market!
Jon (My House)
Is Fernando Rodney going to stick as closer? He seems like a different pitcher.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (12:00 PM)
He does seem like a different pitcher. Every day gets him closer to keeping that job ahead of Kyle Farnsworth. Frankly, I think there's reason to be confident that he will.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (12:01 PM)
OK, time to wrap things up for today. Thanks for all your questions, and sorry if I couldn't get to yours. Take care everyone, best of luck to you in your matchups this week, and remember, there is a game starting within the hour, so get those lineups set!
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