Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:00 AM)

Good morning everyone! Let's get right to your questions...

Josh (Apex, NC)

Good morning! What is your guess as to how save opps will be split between Robertson and Soriano?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:01 AM)

I covered that in my Mariano Rivera injury spin a couple days ago -- check my archive for the link -- but I'm all in on David Robertson. He's completely deserving of the first opportunity, and frankly, having watched him pitch the ninth of a non-save, yet not outrageous lead, game showed to me that he's got the upper hand.

Dave (NJ)

J. Garcia a good play this week against Minor and the Braves?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:02 AM)

He's all right. Not outstanding, but in a league where I'm not being meticulous with my innings/starts cap management, I'd keep him in there.

Christian (Boise)

Tristan, confused as to whether or not ESPN FBB gave Chris Davis a win yesterday. It gave credit yesterday, but did it in final matchups? I'm a little confused. If a pitcher hits a home run, I don't get that do I?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:05 AM)

All I can say is that I've got a head-to-head league on ESPN and Chris Davis didn't get any credit for his win in that one. Granted, it's a custom scoring setup, but I still don't expect him to get credit in the final numbers. If I'm mistaken, someone here please speak up, but my understanding has always been, hitters get credit for hitting, pitchers for pitching, and neither for performance on the other side.

Sal (NJ)

Oh Great One! Start or Sit Jennings this week?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:06 AM)

It's a guess. Tampa Bay Times hints at it being an injury that will cost Desmond Jennings a day or two at least, but it also points out that more won't be known about his status until later today. That's all I can provide, sorry to say.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:06 AM)

My call, if it helps: I'd project two lost games and decide from there.

Nathan (FL)

So is Hamels getting suspended for throwing at Bryce?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:07 AM)

I doubt it. He'd probably get fined if penalized at all. And it doesn't matter for this week's lineup planning because I'd be shocked if he didn't appeal any penalty initially anyway.

Ron (MO)

Adam Dunn over under 36 Homers this year......

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:08 AM)

Dunn is on track to rank among my five worst calls of the entire year, though the last check I did of his pitch numbers showed he's hardly what he was pre-2011, it's just that he's not nearly as bad as what he was in 2011. If you want to say 35 homers, I'm fine with that. So I guess it means I'm taking the under, albeit with hesitation.

Caleb (Kansas)

Have any concerns about Matt Moore? Got rocked by a well-below average Athletics offense yesterday and has only had a couple of good outings overall. Chalking it up to an adjustment period, or something else?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:10 AM)

My quick analysis is that Moore's command is the issue. Jason Collette, a frequent guest on the Fantasy Focus podcast, tweeted a link, if I recall, yesterday showing how Moore's pitches are scattered all over the grid, backing that up. And none of that should be entirely shocking; Moore is a young pitcher so he might be nibbling as he adapts to this level. He's a sit, for sure, a cut candidate in ESPN standard, but I still say he has a bright future. It's merely that it's that ... his future, not present.

Jon (Philly)

U think Chris Davis keeps raking all year or is he a sell high?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:11 AM)

Somebody hasn't been reading "Hit Parade"! Lead story this past Wednesday...

Jay (NJ)

Arrieta and the Orioles the real deal? How would you rank the pitchers to own on this team?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:13 AM)

The Baltimore Orioles are unquestionably not the real deal. I'm sorry, Orioles fans, your team might be off to an impressive start, but it's not challenging for 100 wins. The pitching depth, simply put, is not there.Jake Arrieta being a fantasy-worthy option in the long haul? Sure. Jim Johnson a solid closer? Sure. Jason Hammel mattering, even if only on a matchups basis? Sure. Adam Jones and Matt Wieters budding fantasy studs? Sure. But I still say this team has an extended cold spell in its future, so tread carefully.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:14 AM)

Pitcher ranks: Jim Johnson, Arrieta, Hammel, Wei-Yin Chen, Pedro Strop, Tommy Hunter.

Jeff (Portland)

So in your recent Hit Parade column you attribute Hosmer's woes to seeing less pitches in the strike zone, therefore, he is swinging at bad pitches? Why not take more walks until he sees his pitch? Do you see a realistic improvement? His average is killing me, but I can't just drop him. Projections?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:16 AM)

Actually the point to be made there is that sometimes, opponents work around certain hitters and the trend continues all year. Pablo Sandoval's bad year had a lot of that, and so did Evan Longoria's 2011. It's possible that Hosmer might rank among the hitters who see the lowest rate of strikes all season, in which case he has a decision to make: Take his walks and hope pitchers readjust, or be more aggressive at the risk of hurting your numbers. I still think he's a talented enough hitter that he'll get through it and thrive; I mostly threw that stat out there to help explain why he has performed as he has.

Relief Efforts Upcoming Edition (Baltimore)

Tristan much like H.Bell do you see marmol winning back the closer role? He's a fA in my NL only league and is he worth the gamble? Thanks

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:17 AM)

I only think that because the Cubs really don't have overwhelming alternatives. But I think Carlos Marmol stinks as a pitcher. Just being brutally honest. I don't think I help anyone if I can't be extreme in my opinions about certain players, and I've felt for a very long time that Marmol was grossly overrated. Cubs could have a very, very ugly bullpen all year.

James (MI)

If his name wasn't B. Colon would he be owned in all leagues?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:18 AM)

I don't think his name has anything to do with it, I think it's the rep. He's old, not in especially great physical condition and he has shown a history of breaking down in recent years, including during his shockingly good 2011.

Dan (CA)

Any news on Matt Kemp sitting yesterday? Injured or just rest?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:19 AM)

Injured. Hamstring. He says 1-2 days, but who knows. I'd take him as his word, because that's just not a player I'd be happy to have benched, then see him play five games with outstanding stats.

Carlos Marmol (Chicago)

Overrated? OK, I'm sure you were complaining when I was posting my sub-3.00 ERAs and 13K/9IP.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:20 AM)

Hey Carlos, when was the last time you had a walks per nine under four? And I'm being generous picking four.

Evan (Appleton, WI )

Pujols hit a homerun, should I trade him while his value is at its highest? :~)

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:22 AM)

Watch Albert Pujols go on some sort of absurd 4-5 homer week, considering he has that series in Texas coming up. I don't have the specific stat at my fingertips, but in the past couple weeks there are numbers to back up his being increasingly aggressive and increasingly unsuccessful, which I'd attribute to his pressing due to the media scrutiny revolving around his homer drought. Now that he's "off the schneid," I could see him going on a monstrous tear. So, no, it's actually buy time.

Brian (UT)

If Marmol can get back to throwing the fastball, rather than throwing his TERRIBLE slider, he could be good again. He can't throw the slider for a strike, he simply can't do it. If batters don't chase it, it's ALWAYS a ball.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:25 AM)

Agreed re: the slider, Brian, but want a fun stat? Since the beginning of last season, no pitcher has thrown the fastball for a lower rate of strikes (500 fastballs minimum) than Mr. Marmol. And that's exactly why I don't like him; he can't throw either pitch for strikes anymore.

bryant (slidell)

What is sale's value ros?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:27 AM)

Well, to evaluate Chris Sale the closer, let's assume for a second he can stay healthy the entire remainder of the year. In that case, I see him finishing as a borderline top-10 fantasy closer, probably a guy who, top of my head, I put 12th.But Sale's elbow questions bother me, as does the abrupt shift in role. I cannot assume a full, healthy season, and if he misses time in June, Addison Reed might take the opportunity and run with it. In my next "Relief Efforts," I might only be confident enough to rank Sale around 20-25th.

Brian (Providence)

Can we talk how hot Freddie Freeman has been hitting? Are you expecting a decline at all or is he a legit stud at the first base position? ROY projections?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:28 AM)

Freeman is going to stick somewhat closely to the hot-cold, streaky player pattern, but I demand patience from his owners (unless you're in one of those crazy leagues where people love to chase past stats and give up on cold guys after 10 days' of bad numbers). Overall I think he's absolutely a candidate for a .270 batting average and up to 30 homers.

Markoz (Raleigh)

How big a drop for Minor in this week's 60'6" ? Or just a bad day @ Coors?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:31 AM)

Bad Coors Field starts don't really register in the 60F6I rankings; like a TIE Fighter crashing into the Death Star, it hardly even scrapes the paint. Minor's bad start against the Pirates, however, is another matter. If I drop him, it might be up to 10 spots and related more to the back-to-back bad outings coupled with that one.

John (New Brunswick)

Would you drop Luebke in a standard ESPN league?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:31 AM)

If I needed the DL spot, sure. The prognosis is not good. I'd wait if I could, but not at the expense of losing a greater asset.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:33 AM)

Gobs of closer questions flowing in this chat, and while I'm thinking about that, if you want analysis of all the weekend's news at that particular position, download today's podcast. I'm a guest on it; we discussed them all.

Lazar (Utah)

Where will jeter finish on the end of year player rater?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:33 AM)

Forty-seventh, naturally.

Seanl (LA)

Has wieters emerged as the top fantasy catcher?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:34 AM)

Yes. (Yaaaaay!)I give Carlos Santana and Mike Napoli a fighting chance at unseating him for the spot, but I don't think anyone will be unhappy with any of the three, in the top three.

Mike(San Diego) [via mobile]

Do you see Beltre's hammy lingering for a while? Him being out really hurt me last week (picked up Chris Davis to replace him...ugh).

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:37 AM)

There is nothing I love more than an injured player pinch hitting, pinch running or coming on as a defensive replacement during a weekend game entering the Monday deadline. The reason: Once a player appears in a game, the team cannot backdate a potential DL move before that date, meaning it's a signal that the team feels the player is close enough to playing health that it can risk spending the backdating flexibility. So I'd keep Beltre in there. I think he's close enough, and good enough, to risk it.

Jay (CT)

Are you starting Scherzer this week after this outing over the weekend?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:40 AM)

A start at Oakland, coming off an outing like that, is attractive enough to me. One note about Scherzer's start: He threw sliders 25 percent of the time, his highest rate in a start all season. He got 4 of his 9 K's with it. Maybe he'll keep that up in future outings.

avey (corvallis)

Would you have a problem dropping Werth for a "hot" bat (e.g., Polanco, Alvarez)?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:41 AM)

No, if only because I think Jayson Werth might miss quite a bit of time. Having watched that injury, I was reminded of when Hideki Matsui broke his wrist while playing left field for the Yankees some years back. Hideki played 51 games the year that happened.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:41 AM)

Oh, by the way, Pedro Alvarez given your two choices.

Dustin (NC)

Is Wainwright close to being back to his old self? Would start him against a hot hitting braves team or Cahill against the Giants? Thanks

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:43 AM)

I don't think he's at all his "old self" yet. He's not throwing the curve the same as he did during his great 2010. That said, he's improving, as I expect he will with time. I have Wainwright ranked a little higher for this week of those two, but if you're looking to avoid risk, I can make a case for Trevor Cahill. Wainwright's the one with greater risk/reward.

James (NY)

So Posey is out of consideration? Is it lack of Panda? Lack of general surrounding cast, or lack of ability?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:44 AM)

Not playing quite enough for my tastes.

Rick Vaughn (California Penal League)

Trade ?-- In a H2H Keeper League would you consider trading Andre Ethier for Eric Hosmer as a good "buy low" deal? Strugglin' w/this decision

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:45 AM)

I don't think that's a "bad" deal, I just think that Hosmer at his 2011 peak might not be far off what Ethier could do for you if he stays healthy all year. In other words, it's about how risk-averse you are. If you believe in Ethier, by all means stay put. If it was my team, I'd make that move.

Hank (Alberta)

Will Chris Davis be in your 60'6" this week?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:46 AM)

Yes, if only because he earned a win as a pitcher, thus earning my praise as another excellent example how bad a category that is.

Jeff (Rochester, NY)

Werth going on the DL before the end of the day? Rank these replacements PLZ: Austin Jackson, Willingham, Cam Maybin, Jordy Schafer

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:49 AM)

Hey, want to hear something fun? Nationals don't play until tomorrow night. They can sit back and wait at least another 24 hours to make that DL move, just to drive us nuts.To make you feel better: I have Werth in two leagues and am saddened I can't DL him yet either. But those are the rules.Check my "Hit Parade" for ranks on those guys. I do much more research there for rankings than I can possibly do here, where thoughts about individual players and situations are more meaningful. Josh Willingham stands out to me among that bunch. Jackson too.

Eric (Charlotte)

Good morning Tristan. Any word on Scott Downs' injury?Thanks

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:50 AM)

He's another player being re-evaluated today, but it's a knee injury, and I can't imagine he'd be available for Monday's game as a result. I'd make alternate plans if I could.

Mike (San Diego)

One of my leagues had a pre-season debate about wins vs. Quality Starts and someone who was very stern in backing wins made the argument that "if we did quality starts, you wouldn't be able to get wins out of your relievers". HELLOOOOOO...that's the point! Luck is a weak way to win a league.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:51 AM)

I understand if the rationale is that wins presents an equalizer between starters and relievers, which isn't present with quality starts, but you could not possibly convince me that relief wins are projectable.

Roger (DC)

Curious why you say Posey isn't playing enough -- he's had 3 ABs less than Weiters and 6 more than Napoli.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:53 AM)

At-bats are critical for Giants players. The good ones -- like Posey (and Pablo Sandoval) -- suffer in the counting number categories (runs, RBIs) because that's a bad lineup. So I'd like to see a guy like Buster Posey getting more at-bats than a catcher like Mike Napoli, because Napoli's lineup is substantially better.

Jim (NJ)

Middlebrooks this week?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:53 AM)

I'd play him in a deeper mixed or AL-only league. He's here to play, he's off to a decent start and I like the matchups.

Bernard (France)

Would you put Bautista in that same Hosmer category? Seems he is getting walks and HRs with a low average. Not seeing good pitchers or just bad luck with the BABIP?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:55 AM)

No. Bautista has actually seen more pitches in the zone this year than last, but he's also chasing more non-strikes than before. His decline in well-hit average -- percentage of at-bats that end in hard contact -- is most troubling. I'm not off the bandwagon entirely, but the slump bugs me, for sure.

Joel (NYC)

Does Tyler Greene start getting playing time? hit 2 hr and stole a base yesterday.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:55 AM)

He should. Don't know if he will, but he should. NL-only owners need take a look.

Jon (NYC)

Who is you 2012 "break out" player so far?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:56 AM)

If it's not Adam Jones, surely it's Jason Kipnis or Lance Lynn. I pick Jones because I think his performance is more sustainable all year.

Dylan bundy (Delmarva)

What do you make of my phenomenal start? How good can I be and when?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:58 AM)

I felt Bundy was pretty advanced in terms of development for his age entering the year, but it's still smart to move him along slowly. I think about a year from now we'll be seriously talking about his debut (if he hasn't made it already by then).I will say that I think if he debuts at 20 or so, he's going to endure a little bit of a rough patch initially in the majors. It's not easy to break into that division at that age. But the sky's the limit long-term.

Derek (Worcester)

I'm plagued with lack of DL slots... Is it ok to drop Farnsworth or will he regain the closer role when he comes back? Thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:00 PM)

I wouldn't count on it. So, yes, it's OK.

Mark (FL)

Capuano or Billingsley. Which Dodger arm would you take?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:00 PM)

Billingsley.

Joe (MD)

Better player this year - Trout or Jesus Montero?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:00 PM)

Montero.

Beechi (llini)

Allen Craig ROS?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:01 PM)

Valuable fantasy player in all NL-only, and I'd argue deep mixed and possibly every format imaginable. Everyone worries about the at-bats, but a guy with .290-20 potential given everyday time will find his way into a lineup. I'm confident. Good buying opportunity.

john (ny)

starting Humber in today's matinee?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:03 PM)

Yes.

Pete (Cincy, OH)

2 big disappointments: Ervin Santana and Phil Hughes- Which if either bounces back this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:03 PM)

I'm quite a bit more confident in Santana. Better stuff, better track record. And I'm starting to think Hughes is going to see bullpen time before this year is done.

Luke (MN)

What do you think about trading Encarnacion for Price?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:03 PM)

Fantastic, fantastic deal for the team getting Price.

Billy (KC)

Niese, Nolasco, Masterson. Which one?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:04 PM)

I'll take Niese. That's a difficult one because Ricky Nolasco might statistically finish a little higher on the Player Rater, but he's maddening to own. There will be a stinker like the one A.J. Burnett recently had in his future, and you'll have no idea it's coming.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:05 PM)

OK, time to wrap things up for today. Thanks for all your questions, and sorry if I couldn't get to yours. Take care everyone, and best of luck to you in your matchups this week!