Chat with Keith Law

Welcome to SportsNation! On Thursday, MLB Insider Keith Law will be here to take your questions on anything baseball related.
Law is the senior baseball analyst for Scouts Inc. Before joining ESPN, Law served as special assistant to the general manager of the Toronto Blue Jays and was a writer for Baseball Prospectus.
Send your questions now and join Law Thursday at 1 p.m. ET!
More Keith Law: Search | Chats | MLB Draft | MLB draft blog | Law blog
Klaw (1:06 PM)
I'm not allowing you to submit your own questions today. You haven't earned that right.
Robert (Vancouver)
I know you don't approve of Jamie Moyer occupying a roster spot, but does he have value in another venue, such as San Diego? He has had some good starts this year, he's SO/9 is a decent 6 and his K/W rate is 2:1. Is he done or is there the slightest potential he could make his slop work somewhere?
Klaw (1:09 PM)
The problem with looking at his peripherals is that he's exactly the kind of guy who'll be overrated by stats like FIP - extreme junkballers whose 'natural' BABIPs will ordinarily be higher than the league average. He's done.
Craig (St. Louis)
Gerrit Cole, cup of coffee this year, starting rotation next year?
Klaw (1:09 PM)
Don't see it. Debuts next year.
Garrett (California)
Keith, what are some realistic expectations for Andrelton Simmons the rest of this year? I know he's an 80 defender with and 80 arm, but will be more than a black hole in the 8 spot for Atlanta?
Klaw (1:10 PM)
More than a black hole, yes. An impact bat, no. I think he'll make a lot of contact, but won't hit for any power.
BD (DC)
Hear anything on Matt Purke yesterday?
Klaw (1:11 PM)
I saw on Twitter - I apologize, I can't remember the name of the reporter who tweeted it - that Purke was sitting 88-90 on the stadium gun. That's a bad sign.
Nick (Long Island)
Any word on if teams will get to see Giolito throw before the draft? He's running out of time.
Klaw (1:11 PM)
He's thrown several times already on flat ground. I'm convinced he goes in the top 20, probably top 15.
Klaw (1:11 PM)
And maybe top 5.
Gene Mullett (Columbus, OH )
Any chance Heaney is still around when Cleveland picks @ #15?
Klaw (1:11 PM)
Between 25% and 50%. Could go 9, don't think he goes higher than that.
Falco Lombardi (Miami)
Marlins are looking good, any chance they can take the division?
Klaw (1:12 PM)
The only team that can't take that division is the Mets.
Colin (Seattle)
Hi Keith- I know the Mariners are linked to Mike Zunino at #3 but do you feel that is the way they should go assuming he is still available then?
Klaw (1:13 PM)
I think he's one of 3-4 very reasonable options there. If Correa's still on the board, I'd take him over Zunino. But that doesn't make Zunino a bad pick, or a "wrong" one.
Ian (TN)
Highest/lowest Addison Russell goes?
Klaw (1:13 PM)
Highest is 11, Oakland. Lowest is 30, Yankees, but I doubt he gets past St. Louis twice.
Andrew (Hutto )
Which young gun should I pick up in my dynasty league? Brian Matusz, Kyle Kendrick, Tommy Milone or Wade Leblanc
Klaw (1:14 PM)
One of these things (coughMatuszcough) is not like the others.
Matt (DC)
For reference's sake, what was Purke hitting on the gun at his 'peak'?
Klaw (1:14 PM)
Heard he hit 97 often his freshman year. I saw 94 early in his senior year of HS.
Bret (Toronto)
Do you think Giolito signs if drafted out of the top-10, and offered something around $2M?
Klaw (1:15 PM)
No. No reason for him to take that little (relative to expectations/what he could get in three years).
Josh (New York)
According to Jason Hammel, the man in white is back doing his thing in Toronto. Your thoughts?
Klaw (1:16 PM)
I think Hammel shouldn't have said any of that - reeks of excuse-making. But an exec pointed out to me this morning that Bautista hasn't been the same hitter at home since the article came out. Most likely SSS.
Steve (CA)
Do you have bonus demand figures for the following 4 guys: Gallo, McCullers, Giolito, and Russell?
Klaw (1:17 PM)
Hang on, I'll send you my bonusdemands.xls file...
Matt (London, ON)
Apparently the Jays have been linked to Trahan for one of their two 1st round draft picks. Have you heard any names linked to their picks in round 1? Thanks Klaw
Klaw (1:18 PM)
You may want to check the projected first round I posted on Tuesday...
@Jaypers413 (IL)
Chances of Gausman going 1-1 as of now?
Klaw (1:18 PM)
Zero, or very close to it. I think Houston's mix is Appel, Buxton, Correa, Giolito. There could be others but I get the sense that's the decision set.
Chris (Lorton, VA)
Keith, there was a comment made in the mock 2.0 that you didn't reply to, and I thought it was a great question, so I'm pasting it below. Note, it wasn't mine. Apologies to John if he doesn't want it asked:K_Law. You mention the Nat's taking Wacha and his "Plus" change-up at 16. Being he's nothing more than a "likely Big leaguer" with a "limited ceiling", I don't see Rizzo taking him here. He's stated it a million times that "You can't teach guys to throw hard". Especially with the roid era over. Care to elaborate more on the Nats and this pick? Ty Hensley seems more likely given Rizzo's extreme affinity for big power arms. -John (Springfield, Va)
Klaw (1:19 PM)
Wacha is 90-95 and hits 97. Also, Rizzo hasn't taken a prep arm in the first round in ... ever? Brett Anderson was a second rounder. Am I forgetting someone?
Jared (CT)
Guesses on first guy from this class to make the majors?
Klaw (1:20 PM)
Marcus Stroman. Gets there this year.
Sage (Chicago)
Have any players family ever confronted you while on the job? Maybe they weren't happy with your reports
Klaw (1:21 PM)
No, although I do talk to parents quite often. I blocked a player's brother/cousin on Twitter recently for abusive language ... that might be the worst case so far, and really, it's not that big a deal.
the other Steve (California)
I feel like given the options for the Mets at 12 in your latest mock, Wacha would be the best pick. Am I way off base?
Klaw (1:22 PM)
I'd rather roll the dice on one of the upside HS bats there - would love to see them take Seager, who's in their mix but might still be an overslot guy there.
Klaw (1:22 PM)
Wacha's not a bad pick, though.
John (NY)
NYC banning sale of "large sugary drinks" - really?!
Klaw (1:23 PM)
It's rare that I've ever thought, "boy, am I glad I don't live in New York City" ... but this is one of those times. If I wanted Mayor Bloomberg in my kitchen, I would have invited him over for dinner.
Allen (Raleigh)
Can Evan Gattis play LF at the big league level? Is the bat good enough to crowbar him in somewhere defensively?
Klaw (1:25 PM)
If he could catch, he'd be a guy. But he's too big to catch, has to play 1b/dh, and isn't likely to hit enough to have any role there. Again, his age is a huge factor in his small-sample success this year.
Will (LA)
Is there any chance of Zimmer slipping out of the top 10?
Klaw (1:25 PM)
No. If the issue was his arm, I'd say yes, but I think he goes 5-6-7.
Chris Sale (Chicago)
Has your opinion of me changed any? Or are you just waiting for my arm to fall off?
Klaw (1:26 PM)
I would never root for a player to get hurt, even if I've predicted it would happen. I don't root for players to fail either. I'm not evil.
Brandon (Scottsdale, AZ)
Keith, you're living in Scottsdale now right? Let me take you out to Twin Peaks and some In-N-Out, my treat.
Klaw (1:27 PM)
You wouldn't get me in Twin Peaks unless you drugged me. (And that's not a suggestion.)
Brian (MD)
Any changes to your projection of who the Orioles might take or will we have to wait until tomorrow?
Klaw (1:28 PM)
I'm hearing Gausman more strongly with them today.
Mike (WV)
Should I be hoping that Dan O'Dowd miraculously gets fired before the draft? The Rockies management has been even more clueless than usual this spring...
Klaw (1:29 PM)
The owner says O'Dowd is "head and shoulders above everybody else." Unless that's the dreaded vote of confidence, I don't think O'Dowd's going anywhere.
Rob (ND)
Who are the Twins down to?
Klaw (1:29 PM)
Appel, Buxton, Zimmer, I think in that order.
Eric (Corpus Christi, TX)
I remember the hype about Furcal's arm when he first came up at 19 (or 21 as he turned out to be). Is Simmons's arm comparable?
Klaw (1:30 PM)
Furcal has the best SS arm I've ever seen. Simmons is pretty close, though.
Jack (LA)
Were/are you a fan of Jeff Buckley, who tragically died 15 years ago this week?
Klaw (1:30 PM)
I was not.
Chad (STL)
Are you picking in the Franchise draft, or did you already submit your picks and they are just staggering the announcement?
Klaw (1:30 PM)
Happened a while ago.
Ben (Leland Grove)
About where do you see Pierce Johnson getting popped?
Klaw (1:31 PM)
For a team that feels like his medical risk is low/none, he'll go in the 20s. I'm less sanguine than that - I talked about why in my scouting capsule on him.
Seth (PA)
According to a local writer the Pirates have NO intention of taking Marrero, have you heard this as well lately?
Klaw (1:32 PM)
That's incorrect, but I have said for a while now he's not a lock for their pick and they are exploring a lot of other options. Huntington doesn't fly to meet with a player they have no intention of taking.
Travis (Chicago)
Any reason to read into player workouts with a team? Or just front office due diligence?
Klaw (1:33 PM)
Due diligence. And players are invited to so many workouts that they have to turn some down. MLB should look into doing a combine. It would spare a lot of these kids a lot of unnecessary travel.
Rich (St George, Utah)
New Dodger prez Stan Kasten was recently quoted as saying that his philosophy is "grow pitching, buy bats." Do you A) believe the same is true, and B) equate that believe that the Dodgers will be pitching-heavy at the front of the draft yet again?
Klaw (1:34 PM)
I'm still trying to figure out why the team president is pushing a baseball philosophy. Isn't that the GM's job?
Josh (NY)
Sounds like Hechavarria could be up on Friday. I think most agree that the hitting isn't there, but is his defence as good as people are saying it is?
Klaw (1:34 PM)
He's a good defender. He's not Andrelton Simmons. I'm not sure why they'd bring him up when he has yet to hit at any level of the minors.
Brian (MD)
If the Orioles draft Correa, is there a better potential future infield in the minors than Machado, Correa and Schoop?
Klaw (1:35 PM)
Offensively, that's outstanding. Machado would have to be the SS and there's some question whether he stays there.
Andrew (SF)
Is Ike Davis toast?
Klaw (1:36 PM)
I'm giving him a pass on the year after Valley Fever - that can take a lot of strength out of a player.
Bob (KC)
Buy or sell - C.Buckel and Chafin end up as major league relievers?
Klaw (1:37 PM)
Sell.
Kevin (San Diego)
Klaw, as of today can you give me a few names I might hear when the Pads select at 7?
Klaw (1:37 PM)
Again, check the mock first round piece from Tuesday. And there will another update tomorrow.
Andrew (LaPlata, MD)
Manny Machado was liked but not loved at the draft. Then the prospect world fell hard for him in 2011. What did they see? The feeling I get is he'll be a solid regular, occasional All-Star if he can stay at SS, but the bat will never play big enough if he goes to 3b. What do you say?
Klaw (1:40 PM)
He was #2 on my draft rankings that year. I think you are way light on the bat. WAY light.
rob (richmond)
Too early to be concerned about Robbie Grossman's poor start in AA?
Klaw (1:40 PM)
Hamate injury in the fall. Another free pass, sort of.
JPF (Brooklyn)
Smoltz, Mussina, Pettite...who makes the HOF, who should?
Klaw (1:40 PM)
Yes, yes, no.
Danny (Right Here)
Were you aware of your rankings being screen-capped and posted on various message boards including ESPN's MLB general board?
Klaw (1:41 PM)
Yes, happens all the time. If you spot it and feel like sending me an email/tweet, we'll get it removed (regardless of what site it's on).
Walewander (Detroit)
Hi Keith,The only negative in Trevor Bauer's minor league record is that his walk rate is a bit high. How much of that is being too good for the hitters he's facing, and thus experimenting/messing around on the mound? Or is his command an issue? His K/BB numbers in college were very good. Thank you!
Klaw (1:42 PM)
I think people are overreacting to a mildly-high walk rate. He's not wild. It's back to the "you can't scout a box score" problem.
Dale (Phoenix)
If Astros take Correa first, would you consider that a mistake?
Klaw (1:42 PM)
Not at all.
Adam (California)
Any specific teams linked to Kenny Diekroeger?
Klaw (1:43 PM)
I've heard Rays and Cards, but for a guy who's not a first-rounder, I wouldn't read much into that.
JP (Columbus, OH)
Todd Frazier - good enough to stick around for the next 8 or so years?
Klaw (1:43 PM)
As a utility guy, sure.
Dillon (NOVA)
Would you rather have A.J. Cole or Mike Foltynewicz?
Klaw (1:44 PM)
If Cole was 100%, he's the easy call. He didn't look right when I saw him in March, not his normal velo, and a slightly lower arm slot too.
Daniel (CA)
Stephen Pryor called up by the Mariners. Heard great things about him. How good can he be? All star closer?
Klaw (1:45 PM)
Plus fastball, inconsistent but occasionally above-average slider, below-average command.
the other Steve (California)
Saw Cashner the other night in relief, and he looked just flat out filthy with no effort. What's stopping him from starting long term?
Klaw (1:45 PM)
His shoulder.
Mike (NY)
Any chance Seager sticks at SS? He seems to have the tools to do so, just the body maturing could get in the way...
Klaw (1:46 PM)
Corey? I see virtually no chance of that. He'll get way too big.
Alex (St. Louis)
Keith, are you still hearing Smoral to the White Sox as the draft draws closer?
Klaw (1:46 PM)
He'll still be my pick for them tomorrow.
Jason (St Louis)
Do you think Appel is worth more than 7.2 mil, the slot number for 1-1?
Klaw (1:47 PM)
Yes, but most of the players who'll go in the top ten are worth much more than they'll be paid. Stephen Strasburg got (effectively) $19 million guaranteed over five years; what would he be worth now as a free agent? Or if the Nats could auction him off?
Joey (SD)
Way early, but is there a front runner for top pick in the 2013 draft? Dylan Covey maybe?
Klaw (1:48 PM)
Covey hasn't been good in college. I don't think there is a front-runner for next year's draft yet - some interesting first-round types but no breakout guy.
Scott (Harrisburg, PA )
Are the Phillies still highly interested on Mitch Gueller? And if so are they looking at him to pitch or play everyday?
Klaw (1:48 PM)
Yes, and as a pitcher.
Jared (CT)
Are there any top guys that you personally would not draft due to character/injury issues? (I realize at some point in the draft, anyone is worth the risk)
Klaw (1:48 PM)
A couple, but that's something I don't like to discuss explicitly, just factoring it into my rankings instead. Anything I know about players with bad makeup is second-hand.
John (Centreville)
Is Miles Head becoming a legit prospect? He's destroying the CAL league
Klaw (1:49 PM)
No defensive value, excellent league for power bats.
JP (Columbus, OH)
For future chat admittance consideration, where would you like us to send photos of our wives?
Klaw (1:49 PM)
(This answer has been removed by the ESPN Legal Department.)
Jim (Memphis)
Miss St pitcher Chris Stratton still a back of round 1 guy, or has his stock risen lately?
Klaw (1:50 PM)
He's been a mid-first-round guy for a while now. Could go as high as 8, likely to go in the teens.
Jerry (NYC)
Re: Stroman - what's the split on teams' beliefs on starter vs reliever? I'd assume more reliever?
Klaw (1:50 PM)
Nearly unanimous for 'reliever.'
Von Fricke (Alpharetta)
Keith, sent you a tweet about this, I wanted to ear the scouting report on Gueller and which teams are on him? Thx
Klaw (1:51 PM)
Scouting report (written by Jason) is posted. You can see a list of all posted reports, with several more in the pipeline, here: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/results/_/sort/name
Kevin (Jersey)
Dahl finished strongly. Any teams linked to him? Top 10 pick possible?
Klaw (1:52 PM)
He finished strongly after a so-so spring. Could go 10 to Colorado. Doesn't get past 16-17-19.
Klaw (1:52 PM)
One thing helping Dahl - there is no question that he'll sign right away if picked in the teens. This isn't the year to seek an outsized bonus for a player who's not in the top echelon of the draft class.
Darnell (NYC)
Keith is there any player you are hearing could go WAY higher than expected? ie a late #1 projected guy going top 5-10?
Klaw (1:53 PM)
No, but there will be someone like that - we're going to be surprised.
Chris (San Jose)
Michael Choice is really struggling in AA, with just 4 HR's. The K's are still there but it's not obscene. Is it just a SSS or was he doing something in ST that you saw that would cut off his power like this?
Klaw (1:53 PM)
He was awful when I saw him against major league pitching in ST - but he hadn't faced much pitching like that before, so I didn't want to overreact. Same guy he was in college, though. Doesn't square up enough hittable pitches.
chris (NYC)
When Zach Britton replaces Tommy Hunter in the O's rotation, will it make much of a difference? Where does Hunter belong?
Klaw (1:54 PM)
Hunter is a RH specialist.
@Jaypers413 (IL)
Do you think Casey Crosby is ready for Detroit?
Klaw (1:54 PM)
Could help in relief right now. Has virtually no history of staying healthy or throwing enough strikes. Great arm though.
John (Austin)
Any chance the Astros are going to move Carlos Lee and promote Jonathan Singleton?
Klaw (1:56 PM)
He's 20 and has exactly 200 PA above A-ball. What's the rush?
Rob (Fla.)
As you're tinkering with your mock drafts, does the perception of players change that much day to day or merely what you're hearing?
Klaw (1:56 PM)
It's entirely what I'm hearing. I don't inject my own opinions into assignment of players to teams. This is about who my sources think will be taken and by whom.
Stephen (Sacramento)
Did you think Trout would be this good?
Klaw (1:57 PM)
I rated him the top prospect in baseball two years in a row.
JMD (Virginia)
Wilmer Flores seems to be figuring things out with the bat. Does he have the glove to stick at 3B? If he does, then is he on the rise again in your rankings?
Klaw (1:58 PM)
He's in his third year at the level. I would hope he'd show some signs of improvement.
Ryan (Hanover, PA)
Would Bundy go 1.1 in this draft?
Klaw (1:58 PM)
Yes.
Chris (West Des Moines)
I was amazed to see your mock didn't have the Giants on a weak hitting middle infielder.
Klaw (1:59 PM)
Maybe I'm reading too much into this, but I wondered if Panik's weak start this year and positive early returns from Crick and Blackburn was at all behind the sentiment that the Giants are on HS players, mostly arms, like Eflin. That's probably me overthinking this.
Tom (CA)
Trumbo has looked really good this year. Do you think what we have seen so far is more like what he will be in the future, or is this just a hot streak?
Klaw (2:00 PM)
The power is real. The .396 BABIP will not last. I doubt you needed me to tell you that.
Mike (NY)
Why exactly is it so bad that he's in the 3rd year at that level? He's still 20. Not like you're talking about a kid who debuted at the level at 20 and is *now* figuring the level out at age 22 or 23.
Klaw (2:01 PM)
The quality of pitching he's facing isn't improving over that period of time, even as he's getting older and, one would assume, stronger and/or more mature.
mj (e-town)
What is your thought on MLB banning the "Barves" t-shirts? On the one hand they have a right to protect their trademark, but on the other hand I would think they could have found a better way to handle it (since I believe the proceeds were going to charity anyway).
Klaw (2:02 PM)
Incredibly ham-handed. Question for the lawyers out there - was there a parody/"fair use" defense for the trademark infringement as there would be with a copyright?
@Jaypers413 (IL)
Are you doing another of these chats Monday? Time?
Klaw (2:02 PM)
Yes, Monday and Tuesday, times TBD. I'll announce on Twitter.
Klaw (2:03 PM)
OK, I have to cut this short to record an Insider podcast with Kiley and Jason, talking about the draft. Enjoy your weekends and look for the updated first-round projection tomorrow.
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