Chat with Tristan Cockcroft
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Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:01 AM)
Good morning everyone! Late lineup deadlines today, yes, but plenty of questions to answer. Let's get started...
What do you expect from James McDonald ROS. Trying to sell high. What can I get in return you think.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:02 AM)
I'm a believer. His command is vastly improved upon last season. Frankly, I wouldn't be trading him for anything beneath a top 40 starter. Check my ranks: updated ones should come out tomorrow.
Phil Hughes (New York)
So I've been putting together a string of solid starts recently...Is it time for owners to buy into me going forward ROS in Standard Mixed Leagues?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:04 AM)
Having watched most of his recent outings, I'm a believer (to a certain degree). Hughes' value is rooted in win potential and strikeouts, but I think at the bare minimum he's a matchups candidate with AL-only value. Standard mixed: it's a worthy debate, yes. But I'm not quite fully there yet.
Will Clippard move up in relief efforts this week after he was announced as closer?...or does Storen coming back in July keep him lower. ROY Clippard,Putz,Soriano, or Casilla. Need to drop one.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:06 AM)
No, because Storen is expected back before too long. That's the main reason I've been ranking Clippard conservatively. I buy this on a short-term basis, sure. But in terms of long-term appeal, I think Clippard is the one who has to go ... if you MUST shed one.
Josh Reddick has been playing well but I think he may be coming back to earth a little bit.. JW how you feel abt him and possibly acquiring Justin Upton for him.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:08 AM)
Why is every Justin Upton trade proposal I'm hearing lately this slanted? I'd call this borderline objectionable. But if you can capitalize, good for you. Do it. Reddick's hot start is almost entirely rooted in an unsustainable HR/FB percentage. Total sell-high player.
Clay Buchholz -- are you a believer?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:10 AM)
In the aforementioned Phil Hughes class. His command has improved, he's getting ground balls more regularly, but I still can't go much further than matchups/AL-only/deep-mixed. Part of it is that he simply doesn't strike out enough hitters.
How scared would you be to roll with Randall Delgado this week for two starts?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:11 AM)
I'm kind of this and that on Delgado because, yeah, he faces the Yankees, but then the Yankees often struggle against youngsters they haven't seen before. It's a real risk/reward matchup. And the other is against the Orioles, which is fine. Check my ranking in the Forecaster, it should give you a good sense of his value.
Good time to sell Strasburg given his innings limit?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:12 AM)
If you can get the equivalent of, say, a top 15 starter, by all means. Otherwise? I'd stand pat.
Ticket Buyer (Closer Carousel)
Can you list the order in which one should own the possible closers in Oakland and Chicago (NL)?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:14 AM)
Oakland: I'm going heavy bidding on Ryan Cook. That's a team that leans upon skills in the closer role, and he's got 'em. Next: Grant Balfour. Then Brian Fuentes.Cubs: I really think James Russell deserves a shot, but it seems Shawn Camp might be the smarter add.
Chuck (New Jersey)
Do you think Goldschmidt has turned the corner ROS or is this just streak?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:16 AM)
I think it's just a hot streak, but I think that mostly because that's who he is, a streaky type. Kids who whiff as often as he does are going to frustrate you at times, just as often as they please you, as he has recently done.
Miguelito (Washington, DC)
What about Tim Hudson's match up w/ the Yankees this week makes his match up a 10 on the Forecaster?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:18 AM)
Well, he's actually a 9, but I admit that still pretty good. And here's my thinking: coming off an outstanding start, plus it's a home game, where Hudson tends to be at his best. I'm not terribly scared, though understand that rating was generated by the formula not accounting for his injury.
Bauer seems to have figured out his BB's in AAA, how's his time table look for a call up?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:21 AM)
Plenty of Trevor Bauer questions today, which I suppose I understand considering my historical Bauer love. I maintain that the Diamondbacks need to get this guy into the rotation by months end, but at the same time, let's not declare two minor-league starts a "cure." Command might be a slight question early in his career.
Lineup decisions: Start Melk and Papi this week? They've been studs, but I'm worried whether they'll play the full week. Thanks!
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:23 AM)
Melky Cabrera: he's supposed to return to the lineup on Tuesday, so plan accordingly. It sounds like he'll play the full week. No major worries here.David Ortiz: I'm assuming this is about the DH, since I haven't heard any news of injury. The Red Sox have shown they're willing to play him at first base, with Adrian Gonzalez in right field. So maybe he sits one game? I wouldn't sweat it.
Based on your list you don't see Doolittle being a dark horse candidate in OAK? He's got a live arm.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:25 AM)
Sean Doolittle has been a pitcher for what, 12 months? This is effectively the Sergio Santos situation. I choose that name because, yes, it shows promise, but we're talking aways further down the road. I wouldn't add him today.
Are D. Brown and Gyorko pickupable in a large keeper league?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:28 AM)
Actually, I think Jedd Gyorko is an excellent sleeper addition in keeper leagues right now. Very good chance he'll see time with the Padres this season, perhaps even by the All-Star break. Tuck that name away even in redraft leagues.
Dan (Concord, NH)
Buy Low on R.Ibanez in an AL Only league? "Low" as in he hasn't done much these last couple weeks...? Also, sell high on Torii Hunter (big weekend, but in COL), Colby Rasmus, or G.Beckham? Thoughts on these guys? THANKS for chatting!
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:28 AM)
I'll go no, yes, yes, no.
Auto-Update (on Vacation)
When do you see Fister being pencilled into the line-up?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:29 AM)
Not this week. It makes all the sense in the world for the Tigers to be conservative with his recovery. Think next week, maybe.
Manny Corpas (Chicago)
I do have "closer" experience.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:31 AM)
C'mon, really? The Cubs' bullpen state has gotten this bad? Speaks volumes...But seriously, take a look at Corpas' K/9 rate this year. In Triple-A. THAT speaks volumes too.
Sonny (Charlestown, MA)
Where would Sale rank among pitchers in a keeper league?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:33 AM)
Wow, probably top-25? Like him a lot in keeper.
I have been trying to select decent match ups for Tim Lincecum and sort of spot start him, however I don't trust him too much as of late and have been relying more on upside. I got him off waivers so I didn't invest a draft pick in him, what do you think we should do with Lincecum?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:35 AM)
See, if you're a Lincecum owner, this is why you can't drop him, because people like Michael are going to be there to scoop him up and speculate. It's frustrating to hear this advice: If you are a Lincecum owner, you have little choice but to keep him around, cross your fingers and hope. I'm pessimistic, period. I've been pessimistic for weeks. But unless you float his name out there and get something like a top-40 starter for him, a guy maybe with less of a reputation but greater stats to date, you're stuck where you are.
Would you trade Mark Trumbo for Longoria?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:35 AM)
Danny C (Ronkonkoma NY)
Who is more likely to be dealt by the cubs - Garza or Dempster? Impact on either?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:37 AM)
Matt Garza, mostly because he'd fetch a greater return in my opinion (health willing between now and the trade deadline). As for the impact of a potential deal, win potential is the primary benefit, unless either lands in a particularly pitching-friendly venue, in which case the overall impact is obvious. And to talk a little about the win potential: That kind of in-season categorical boost is almost always exaggerated. I maintain that you invest in the skills, not the wins.
With Trevor Plouffe's multi-eligibility do you think he is a must-own in a 12 team league? What are your predictions for him for the ROS?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:40 AM)
I really don't know what to make of Trevor Plouffe. The guy was a four-year Triple-A veteran, albeit one who is still 25 years old, and who had .262/.316/.451 triple-slash rates at the level without outstanding potential in terms of either power or speed. (Homers at least better than steals; 15ish in the minors.) So I'm tempted to say "no," though maybe as a back-of-the-lineup type, he could be. I just see this being unsustainable.
Norichika Aoki has crushed it over last week or so. Any value here ROS? 12-team mixed viable?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:43 AM)
Sure, there's value there, but I'll point out that in spite of his hot streak he still hasn't locked in every-single-day at-bats. It could just be a hot spell, and I wonder whether he'll cool as the summer temperatures rise. Look at his Japan stats: Consistent .300-plus batting averages, but also generally 12-15 homers and steals just shy of 20. And since there's a translation needed, I can't see him being more than a .280-15-15 kind of guy here, at the most.
I have G Richards and E Santana Will activate J Weaver this week Do you think Richards could steal the starting pitcher position from Santana
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:44 AM)
Certainly he could. Performance often drives decisions. The next 5-10 days are going to speak volumes about the Angels' rotation, so if I owned Richards, Santana or Weaver, I wouldn't be making any firm plans in a weekly league.
Nathan J. (Geneseo, IL)
Tristian, thanks for getting up early and doing the 06010 podcast with TMR. Love having you on the show. 8-team H2H roto keeper (we keep 7) league. Was offered Allen Craig for Chris Sale. I could use a little help on offense, but Sale is outrageous right now. Do I hold him or give him away since I'm unsure he's a keeper for next season. Is Craig a Top 50 players for next year?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:45 AM)
Thanks Nathan, I love being on the show as well! Always a good time. As for the Sale trade, nope, not a chance. You can command more.
When do you consider a season lost and focus on rebuilding in a Dynasty format? I feel like my roster is solid, but the Roto stats are just not there.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:47 AM)
It is impossible for me to make that call because it involves careful examination of your standings, your roster and what you personally project for your players going forward. You sound like you're still too confident in your team to rebuild, though; I like that you believe in your roster and if that's true, it might merely take some retooling for you to get back in the hunt. But I will also stress -- and this is critical -- don't blindly believe in your team. The absolute worst thing a dynasty-league owner can do is to completely misread his or her team, foolishly go for it and burn future resources.Let's just say, if you've done this for awhile, you pretty much know when you're a contender or not. There's a feel to it.
scott (santa cruz mountains)
When do u think we'll see Hultzen?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:48 AM)
I originally thought September, but he's dominating Double-A ball so fiercely, I could see a Triple-A promotion coming soon, and perhaps a debut sometime shortly after the All-Star break.
Eric (New York)
Tristian, I sent you an email about a week ago regarding Tim Collins, on the top relievers list. Don't you believe he has the numbers to be ranked higher than he is? He's definitely better than Greg Holland and hes on the same team.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:52 AM)
I thought we discussed it, but Collins' performance warrants revisiting. No, I don't think he warrants a greater ranking, but you need to remember that "Relief Efforts" rankings put a heavy emphasis upon saves, because that's (unfortunately) what drives the majority of relievers' fantasy values. And in this instance, I see Holland being ahead of Collins in the "saves pecking order." Look at what Holland has done since returning from the DL: 0.71 ERA, 16 K's, 12 2/3 IP. Plus, he's being used like a traditional setup man, whereas Collins is being deployed as a multi-inning type, not so much a firm eighth-inning guy each night. I agree that Collins is great for ERA/WHIP/K's, but that's not the entire equation.
What do you expect from Oswalt ROS?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:54 AM)
I agree with Matthew's recent take if you caught his video clip about Roy Oswalt; I'm not that excited about the move. Ballpark is a real negative, Oswalt's strikeout rate had been dropping in recent years and I just can't see him being much more than a matchups consideration in AL-only/mixed. Maybe he'd crack my top-50 starters in some future "60 Feet 6 Inches." It's possible. But that's as high as I think he could possibly go, any week all year.
would you trade prado for mark trumbo?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:54 AM)
Mike (New York)
Wainwright ROS? As soon as it looks like he's getting back in to form, he seems to regress a little.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:55 AM)
That is the Adam Wainwright formula I outlined in detail in the preseason. Read the last 60F6I; updated insights are all over that piece.
Do you trust Edwin Jackson against NYY and TOR this week?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:56 AM)
Trust isn't the right word for it, because the proper answer to the inquiry as written is "absolutely not."
Tristan, how can I get into a league with you?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:56 AM)
I wish I could handle so many leagues as to take on those kinds of challenges, to be honest. But I've got a ton of leagues as it is. Though I'll say, maybe at some point I'll do a readers' league, if there's enough demand. We'll see!
rob (myrtle beach)
i know you have edwin ranked 35th in the forcaster,but would you trust him enough against the jays and yanks?thanks
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:58 AM)
Exactly. Pair this with the previous E-Jax question. Rank number outlines talent meeting matchups, accounting for the risk involved in my "trust" comment. I account for a lot with my rankings, and if you want to know what I think of a pitcher in a given week, you really need to be reading the Forecaster regularly.
What type of player is Gyorko for those of us who haven't followed him closely
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:59 AM)
Decent-average, good-walk kind of hitter, competent with the bat, shouldn't be terribly high-risk, has some pop as well. Also a third base prospect getting time at second this season, so could fill a tough position. But he's a Padre, so keep the Petco factors in mind.
Kings Raise Cup Tonight! (Los Gatos (CA))
I have Russell (Cubs) but they had Camp in in 9th for save (blown) the other night. Thus, I nabbed Camp too. Don't desire 2 spots for few Cubs saves. Shall I drop one?Have Fuentes (Oak) and he's struggled. Nabbed Cook too. Don't desire 2 spots on A's saves. Shall I drop one?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (12:02 PM)
(Unfortunately) I agree with you about the Stanley Cup prediction. Kings in excellent shape to finally wrap this thing up, even if they were massively outplayed in Game 5. Home-ice a huge thing tonight, I think.As for the closers, see, these are the kinds of bullpens we suggest you avoid when possible, and where guesswork is as effective as any statistical analysis. Seriously, if you put the names on a dart board and fired away, you might be as accurate as my answers today. That's the reality of it. I like to hoard skills: It's why Russell and Cook are the two most common names from those 'pens on my fantasy rosters. But that's how I play. You?
Tom (West Palm)
What's for lunch? Aceves days at closer ending soon?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (12:03 PM)
Turkey wrap. Getting hungry.I think Alfredo Aceves might be about the best choice the Red Sox have until Andrew Bailey returns -- perhaps a little after the All-Star break -- so no, I don't think so.
Jo (San Jose)
Hey Tristan! Just picked up Medlen. We have no bench in our league, so how long would you guess I'll be waiting for him to be promoted?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (12:06 PM)
I can't quickly reference the pitch counts from Kris Medlen's minor league starts, but I'd have guessed he'd need 3-4 turns there before being fully ready to go all-out for the Braves. So we're talking by about July 1, most likely. Maybe a week sooner than that. I don't know the depth of your league, but if it's NL-only, 12+ teams, I think you can justify being patient.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (12:06 PM)
OK, let's take two more...
Jay (New York)
Brian Roberts worth starting this week and going forward? Would be replacing Kendrick who's been killing me.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (12:08 PM)
I can't do it, but I'm known for being as conservative as possible with players coming off multiple concussions (Justin Morneau being another). Roberts is now 34 years old, probably will always be a risk to have his career ended at a moment's notice and he hasn't played a full year since 2009. So I'd take a look, maybe, in a deeeeeeeeep league. But I'd never feel comfortable with him as a starter, and certainly not over a player like Howard Kendrick.
Skip (The Studio)
Ben Revere going to keep up this production?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (12:09 PM)
I'm a Revere fan, from the "he can hit about .280 and steal 40 bases while playing solid defense" angle. Think of him as somewhat comparable to Denard Span, maybe slightly fewer walks but also a hint less injury risk. So I'd say yes, ride this streak, if what I just outlined is valuable in your league.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (12:10 PM)
OK, time to wrap things up for today. Thanks for all your questions, and sorry if I couldn't get to yours. Take care everyone, and best of luck to you in your matchups this week!