Chat with Keith Law

Welcome to SportsNation! On Thursday, MLB Insider Keith Law will be here to take your questions on anything baseball related.
Law is the senior baseball analyst for Scouts Inc. Before joining ESPN, Law served as special assistant to the general manager of the Toronto Blue Jays and was a writer for Baseball Prospectus.
Send your questions now and join Law Thursday at 1 p.m. ET!
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Klaw (1:04 PM)
Slide and drop. It's Klawchat.
Frank (LA, CA)
Keith - do you still "root" for a specific team (I seem to recall you growing up a Yankees fan) or have you become completely team agnostic?
Klaw (1:05 PM)
Team-agnostic. Given my job, it's better that way.
Bill (Tampa)
Was Cain's the best pitched game in history.
Klaw (1:06 PM)
Kerry Wood's 20-K game comes to mind as clearly better.
Tim (London)
Is Belt finally turning thins around and becoming the player he is thought to be. Do you still view him as becoming an All-Star type of player??
Klaw (1:07 PM)
As much as I'm a longtime Belt supporter, I can't tell you we've got any evidence in his performance that he's turning it around right now.
Edward (Toronto)
So... Adam Lind is hitting .421/.487/.695 in Vegas right now. Is he fixed now, or is that all Vegas?
Klaw (1:08 PM)
I wouldn't take any hitter's line in Vegas seriously.
@Jaypers413 (IL)
Which level would you assign Jorge Soler to if the decision was yours?
Klaw (1:09 PM)
I haven't seen him live, but based on what I've been told, I'd start him in Peoria (low-A) after a week or so in the complex league, and if he rakes right away, be ready to move him to the FSL.
Jim (Rockville)
So, what do you think about Collins' decision to appeal the scoring decision on Dickey's one-hitter? Or is that a clown question?
Klaw (1:10 PM)
I'm not a believer in revisionism. It's over. The Mets only look bad by doing this.
Robert (Baltimore)
Drew Smyly sent to DL because of a gruesome blister. He said they happened alot in college ball. Does something like that ever factor into a scouting evaluation?
Klaw (1:10 PM)
IIRC, I didn't see Smyly in his draft year because he was a late scratch from the SEC tournament because of a blister. And yes, it can factor into an evaluation - it's a health issue.
Paul G. (Valley of the Sun)
Do you believe I'm a pretty good player yet?
Klaw (1:11 PM)
No, because I don't believe in things that aren't true.
Tony (Clearwater)
Byron Buxton... how good can he be? Should I make a drive to see him in the GCL?
Klaw (1:11 PM)
Definitely go see him - even if he doesn't hit right away, the speed and athleticism will wow you.
Gerry (Philly)
KLaw!! Ruben Amaro was downright giddy about Dylan Cozens in his draft analysis. Cozens wasn't even rated due to football commitment or character issues. Why all the excitement? What is his potential?
Klaw (1:14 PM)
He wasn't rated highly because he's not that good. Shoved his coach and told him to "f off" in the dugout during a game, so he was kicked off the team - the culmination of a series of incidents that turned many scouts off him, one even calling him a "bully." (Just what you want on your GCL team around a handful of 16-year-old Latin American kids.) And he's a big power-before-hit guy who put on 50-60 pounds in a single summer. Amaro is pumping up his draft pick, which is his job, but he's giving you half the story.
John (Green Bay)
Would AA be too much too fast for Wacha?
Klaw (1:15 PM)
No. His value derived from how advanced he was in college.
Jon (DC)
Wacha Wacha Wacha.
Klaw (1:16 PM)
The Cardinals need to play a clip of Fozzie Bear every time Wacha strikes a guy out.
Robb (Colorado)
So, Charlie Monfort, owner of the Rockies, says that O'Dowd is the best GM in baseball. Uh, I think he is ranking just a tad high. Maybe by about 28 spots. What do you think?
Klaw (1:17 PM)
I don't have O'Dowd as the best GM in baseball. Was that merely a 'vote of confidence?' I don't see why you'd even make such a comment about your GM when you don't have a starter with a sub-5 ERA in your rotation.
Jason (St Louis)
Starters are dropping like flies in St Louis. Considering his struggles would it hurt his development to bring up Miller for a couple starts?
Klaw (1:17 PM)
He's been down a full grade on his fastball all year. I wouldn't do it.
Dan (Washington, DC)
Is Tyler Moore a good bench bat, solid starter, or Adam Dunn clone future All-Star 1Bman?
Klaw (1:17 PM)
Bench bat.
Rich (Bayonne, NJ)
Most reports are high on the Yankees first 2 picks and then some comments seem to say they reached on O'Brien. What is your assements of Hensley and Aune? And are there any other picks in the later rounds for the Yankees that you like ?
Klaw (1:21 PM)
I'd put Mikolas in the group with those first two. I was never an O'Brien fan, even though he was better this year (before the injury) than he was last year - I still doubt he has the glove to be an everyday catcher. Refsnyder's interesting, probably an extra OF, and I think Dugas will exceed expectations. They have some interesting prep picks after the 10th round but I couldn't tell you if any of those guys will sign.
Steve (California)
Any draft signings surprise you (good or bad) yet? Was that too much for Gallo? Surprised Correa took so little??
Klaw (1:22 PM)
Gallo's number made sense to me - first round talent with commitment to LSU. Very surprised Correa took so little. How do you think he felt seeing the guy behind him got 25% more? You can bet every other agent in the business will be pointing that out to Correa shortly.
Jeff (ABQ)
What's your feel on Appel? The Pirates tend to sign people others don't think they can. Does Appel really feel that he could make more money next year?
Klaw (1:26 PM)
I don't think Appel can make that much more money next year unless something were to change in the draft structure. I think all of the predraft deals going down hurt Appel, but I don't know if he can do anything about it if MLB won't enforce the rule prohibiting such deals. It's not an ideal situation but he may have to accept that he's getting $3 million instead of $6 million.
Jerry (NYC)
Lots of (comical) talk about den Dekker over in Rubin's chat earlier...he's still only a 4/5 OF correct?
Klaw (1:27 PM)
Correct.
Steve (California)
Is Mike Cameron a fair upside comp for Matt den Dekker? Good glove, some power, strikes out too much??
Klaw (1:28 PM)
It's a terrible comp. Cameron walked a ton and was a better defender. Den Dekker's a good defender who is probably a platoon bat at best.
Tom (Windsor)
Whats your thoughts of the Jays allowing Alford to play football, smart move?
Klaw (1:29 PM)
The only way to view this as a smart move is that they're paying $750K for what is essentially an indefinite option to sign him to a baseball-only contract after some linebacker takes his head off this fall. If Alford plays three years of football at Southern Miss, the odds of this contract working out for Toronto are extremely low.
John (Boston)
Next years draft class looks uninspiring at best. Is it going to be even weaker than this year?
Klaw (1:30 PM)
I feel like the top tier is weaker than this year's was. I'm hoping some guys will emerge this summer. If Ryne Stanek is really the best college starter in the class, I'd be disappointed.
Jason (Birmingham)
Hi Keith. Anything planned for Bloomsday on Saturday?
Klaw (1:30 PM)
Might go to the Mets game. Maybe Jim Joyce will be umpiring.
Ben (Leland Grove)
Chances of the Cubs locking up Wiseman?
Klaw (1:31 PM)
I think zero. He's not good enough to go play pro ball right now. Three years in the SEC will be good for him.
jono (dc)
Isn't overly simplistic to say testing and resulting lack of PEDs is a major contributor to the "golden era" of pitching? Wouldn't a greater contributor be teams taking better care of their pitchers through the minors and not allowing them to go 120+ pitches per outing. David Clyde would NEVER happen today.
Klaw (1:32 PM)
Exactly. It's also why the old dictum about high school pitchers being too risky to take in the first round is bogus.
Steve (California)
Re: Alford... Are there a lot of guys who have signed two sport contracts and became good major leaguers? Off the top of my head I can't think of one.
Klaw (1:33 PM)
Me neither. Nor could a half-dozen scouts/directors I asked. Even the kids who signed academic deals (play in the summer, go to school September to May) haven't panned out). You need those extra reps.
Jack (Toronto)
If the Jays do sign Alford to a baseball-only contract in the future, would this impact their signing pool retroactively?
Klaw (1:34 PM)
I don't believe so, because they'd be tearing up the original contract and signing a new one. The only question is if they did so very soon - say, in September - would MLB view that as an attempt to evade the cap.
Joe (Chicago)
Was Dylan Covey even considered for your 2013 watchlist? Has he really fallen that far (I understand his health concerns)?
Klaw (1:35 PM)
He has, unfortunately. But I'm hopeful he can regain what he's lost between now and the draft.
Matt (DC)
Brian Goodwin's been looking fantastic lately in Low A..is it time for a bump up?
Klaw (1:35 PM)
Yes. Old for that level. Can't take the stat line very seriously.
Drew (New York)
Are you as high on Wheeler as other scouts? Some have called him the best RHP prospect in the minors
Klaw (1:37 PM)
Nobody has called him that. Because he's not.
Steve (California)
Mets have been playing Wilmer Flores at 2B this whole week. That's....being kind here....wishful thinking, right??
Klaw (1:37 PM)
I'd say yes. Still think he ends up in an outfield corner or at 1b.
Joe (Chicago)
Can Mark Montgomery become a big league reliever? He's struck out about 40% of all batters he has faced since he has signed.
Klaw (1:37 PM)
Yes, definitely.
Brendan (Virginia)
Klaw, if you had a son making the choice between playing minor league ball or college ball, how would you advise him? Would college/organization options be the highest deciding factor?
Klaw (1:40 PM)
Depends on a number of factors, including how advanced the player is, how mature a kid he is, what the family's financial situation is, and what colleges are interested. In the abstract, I would generally counsel a legitimate prospect offered a good six-figure bonus to sign. Pro teams, while far from perfect, have the greater interest in developing the player for long-term success, and more resources to offer the player. But there are definitely players who will benefit from three years at a good college program.
Ben (Leland Grove)
Is Matzek officially back to who the Rockies first drafted?
Klaw (1:41 PM)
He has 51 walks in 69 innings. Really?
Bob (Sacramento)
If it's between signing as a 5th rounder or being a pitcher for Augie I'd tell my kid to sign for whatever they had to offer.
Klaw (1:43 PM)
There are coaches out there who are more cautious with pitcher usage, though. I've highlighted Vanderbilt for that. Outside of Gausman's usage the last two weekends, LSU has been very strong in that department under Mainieri and now Alan Dunn. But if the program has a history of overuse and/or pitcher injuries, then yes, that should be a significant factor in the player's decision.
Daniel (Washington, DC)
With the amount of players that don't make it to the bigs, I'm surprised that you didn't mention getting an education as a plus for going the college route?
Klaw (1:44 PM)
Education will always be there after pro ball, with the MLB scholarship plan to help pay for it - and MLB can't yank your scholarship after a year just because you didn't play well.
Trey (Boston)
What do you see Jackie Bradley being? All-Star, above average, or just average?
Klaw (1:47 PM)
Could be an All-Star caliber guy because of his added value on defense. Doesn't mean he makes AS teams, just that he's potentially a top-6 CF in the majors.
Daniel (San Diego)
Tony Gwynn was very careful with Strasburg, right?
Klaw (1:48 PM)
Very.
Mick (Chicago)
I'm still not seeing any stats for Drew Cumberland. Did he give it a go and his health failed him again?
Klaw (1:49 PM)
He retired again.
Jason (Birmingham)
Keith, do you ever read any baseball books?
Klaw (1:49 PM)
Very rarely.
Neal (Bel Air, MD)
If it was up to you, would Dylan Bundy be a September or sooner call up?
Klaw (1:50 PM)
I don't think there's a need to recall him this year, although I think he's more than capable of handling it.
Jordan (CT)
Machado is a 19 year old in the Eastern League, I'm assuming still no concerns at this point, right?
Klaw (1:50 PM)
Zero concerns.
Andrew (SF)
Colby Rasmus back on path to stardom?
Klaw (1:52 PM)
Again, I'd like to be optimistic, but we're dealing with a tiny sample here - and Rasmus isn't having great at bats, more great results.
Jason (St Louis)
Do you think Oscar Taveras could be ready by 2014 when the Beltran contract is up?
Klaw (1:52 PM)
Yes.
Ryan (DSM)
Odorizzi has looked good this year. Is he closer to reaching his ceiling as a 2/3 guy or is it just SSS and I should expect some regression?
Klaw (1:53 PM)
I don't see him as a 2 or a 1.
Klaw (1:53 PM)
I'll rephrase that: He could develop into a 2. It's more likely he's a very good mid-rotation guy. The offspeed stuff hasn't been as good as the raw stat lines would indicate, unfortunately.
BTG (NY)
No plans to read The Art of Fielding?
Klaw (1:53 PM)
No.
Justin (Indianapolis)
If Baltimore is still contending in July with If being the main word here could the Cubs land Bundy or Machado in a trade with Garza?
Klaw (1:54 PM)
No. Pretty sure I know who you root for now.
MeisterNJ (Mendham)
Tyler Austin seems to be sustaining his production so far. Do you see him becoming an average regular?
Klaw (1:54 PM)
Above-average or better.
Snakes (Philly)
Nats lefty Danny Rosenbaum a legit prospect for you? AA numbers are awesome.
Klaw (1:55 PM)
No - and you're overusing the term 'awesome' if you're applying it to a guy with 55 strikeouts in 88 innings.
Nick (College Park)
Does Gausman have the stuff to be a potent 1-2 rotation-mate to Bundy one day?
Klaw (1:55 PM)
I think so - solid 2. I think the late emergence of the slider may have led to him being a bit underrated by teams that scouted him more early in the year than late.
Doug (MT)
Why do baseball people talk of "recalling" a prospect who's never been up to begin with? Wouldn't he have to to be "called up" at one point before being "recalled" at a later point?
Klaw (1:56 PM)
Such a player was optioned to the minors at some point, probably in spring training. You recall a player on the 40-man roster, even if he's never played in a regular-season MLB game. You purchase the contract of a player who is not on the 40-man roster, thus adding him to that roster so that you can also add him to the 25-man roster.
Scott (Omaha)
Predictions for who wins the CWS? Very vague question, I know...
Klaw (1:56 PM)
I think I answered Florida over UCLA on Twitter the other day.
Brandon (RI)
Does Billy Hamilton's bat profile enough to hold down a starting job or is he more likely to play 4th OF for 5-6 teams?
Klaw (1:57 PM)
Too harsh. Plus I wouldn't rule him out at second base.
Ray (CA)
AJ Griffin is on a tear at AAA. Do you think he could be a decent major league starter sometime soon? I remember you saying you liked him a few years ago.
Klaw (1:58 PM)
I do, probably this year.
Rob (Chicago)
Thoughts on Hawkins signing with the W Sox? Is he any good?
Klaw (1:59 PM)
He's very good. Potential impact bat with defensive value in an outfield corner. They've needed a position player prospect like him for a while now - I liked the Beckham pick (obviously was wrong on him) but even he didn't have Hawkins' offensive upside.
Mike (Los Angeles)
Gary Brown and Michael Choice are both struggling big time at AA. Any longterm concerns about either one that you didn't have 3 months ago?
Klaw (2:02 PM)
Choice's ability to make contact has always been a concern. I was never a huge Gary Brown fan, but thought he'd hit enough to let the plus to plus-plus defense play in center and make him at least an average regular ... I'm very surprised he's struggled to this extent. He has a .279 OBP vs RHP. If you want to be concerned about Billy Hamilton, look at Brown - different side of the plate, but similar profile, 80 runner without power.
Jack (Toronto)
Matt Szczur, great prospect or greatest prospect?
Klaw (2:03 PM)
Injured semi-prospect. Out with a strained knee since June 1st.
Heetha (F)
Courtney Hawkins for Matt Garza straight up. What do you think?
Klaw (2:03 PM)
I think it's not allowed.
JK (Chicago)
With Jared Mitchell making great strides at a more advanced level but still lacking a ton of experience, what kind of path would you see him taking? Repeat AA early next year before getting a call up if he has continued success?
Klaw (2:04 PM)
I wouldn't ask a guy who's had this kind of success to repeat the level. Why wouldn't you send him to AAA?
mk (abq)
i realize it's only 200k, but still seems amazing the twins got buxton to sign for under slot. esp considering many are saying he is the best all around talent in the draft. any insights on how/why this happened?
Klaw (2:04 PM)
I believe he's still getting the biggest bonus in the draft.
de la (the 415)
Any under-the-radar guys who might be prominent in next season's draft whom we ought to watch for in the CWS?
Klaw (2:06 PM)
I don't know about under the radar, but I've mentioned Crawford and Whitson at Florida as two top guys to watch, as well as Plutko at UCLA and Stanek, Ficociello, and Suggs at Arkansas.
MeisterNJ (Mendham)
Hitting any minor league games in NY area while you're here?
Klaw (2:06 PM)
I'm not there very long, unfortunately.
Adam Manaa (California)
Any notable O's draft picks other than Gausman?
Klaw (2:07 PM)
Reviews of all AL draft classes: http://klaw.me/LcueYM
Greg (AZ)
Max Stassi is hitting, finally. He only needs to hit a little bit, considering he's an excellent defensive catcher, right? Does he still have a shot to be the elite catching prospect we thought he was in 2009?
Klaw (2:07 PM)
Needs to stay healthy, too. Hoping we've finally turned that corner.
Tony (Chicago)
Should the Cubs start to be getting excited about their fair system? Theo has added more talent in 6 months than we have had in 20 years. Do the Cubs actually have an above average farm system yet or still a ways away from that?
Klaw (2:08 PM)
Definitely time to start getting excited. Assuming Almora signs (and I assume he will) they'll probably have three guys in my top 50 after the season with him, Soler, and Baez. Also assuming Rizzo will no longer be eligible.
JJJ (La)
So what happens to Hicks now that Buxton is in the Twins system? Does this end his chances of making the Twins big league roster in the future?
Klaw (2:09 PM)
Hicks' chances of making the big leagues are not connected in any way to Byron Buxton. They are, however, connected to his inability to translate his tools into any sort of performance over the last year and a half.
Andrew (SF)
Will Darvish's walk rate improve?
Klaw (2:11 PM)
I believe so. But I'm surprised at how poor it's been so far, too.
Steve (Chicago)
I know a lot can happen from now until the 2013 draft, but is there any way Austin Wilson plays his way to the #1 overall pick?
Klaw (2:11 PM)
Sure, it's possible, but given the way Stanford forces its hitters to hit the ball the other way, the odds are against him. He'd need to just ignore them and start pulling the ball to show off that power - and basically dare them to pull him from the lineup.
Kevin (DC)
I agree 100% on wins being a poor stat, no argument here....but is it fair to jump on Eric in podcast when referring in a vacuum to one pitcher when they have won 10 games this year? For example, Lynn has ten wins and for a pitcher who is pitching well it is one example of him doing well. Yes, to use it to say Cliff Lee is having a bad season is not fair.
Klaw (2:13 PM)
But it's not evidence that Lynn is doing well. Lynn is doing well, He has a lot of wins. He could be doing just as well without all of those wins. He could have a lot of wins and be pitching poorly. It's a shorthand way of referring to a pitcher that needs to die a quick yet painful death.
Matt (California)
Seriously, what are the Padres thinking re Cashner. Re-converting him to a starter is a terrible idea, right?
Klaw (2:13 PM)
I think it's unlikely to work, and risks further injury. If the Padres' doctors believe he's not at risk, it's not a terrible idea - it's a good one, as he has the three pitches to be an ace. But from what I've heard, the injury risk here is too high.
Tom (Windsor)
Is Hechavarria probability of being able to hit in the majors rising?
Klaw (2:14 PM)
No.
Steve (California)
Mets drafted Stefan Sabol but are supposedly moving him to the OF? Why? I thought all his potential vlaue is tied to him being behind the plate. Is his glove that bad??
Klaw (2:15 PM)
I haven't seen him there since HS, but he was brutal behind the plate, yes.
Pat (Seattle)
Now that he can hit an outside pitch the other way, is Michael Saunders an everyday player or still 4/5 OF?
Klaw (2:15 PM)
Everyday player.
J (boston)
politics/stadiums issues aside, what are the top 3 cities (US or otherwise) that you think could handle an expansion team?
Klaw (2:16 PM)
Ignoring markets with teams now that could handle another? Austin/San Antonio and Portland are the obvious ones. Charlotte comes up a lot but I don't think the market is large enough.
Kevin (DC)
Fair enough on wins. One more question on bad announcing stats. Is it fair for an announcer to say that XYZ team or player has done well in RISP/clutch situations this year (past tense) as long as they don't imply that player is clutch or future performance will reflect that.
Klaw (2:17 PM)
Using the stats implies significance that isn't there. I'm not a fan.
Willis (Riverside, CA)
Made your Pasta w/ Mushroom Sauce the other night. Good stuff. In your opinion, why did Rahier fall in the draft? And how do you evaluate him when he skipped playing HS ball in favor of club ball. I'm sure there are good (wood bats) and bad (uneven competition) reasons.
Klaw (2:18 PM)
I've heard from scouts out that way that there wasn't clarity on how signable he was. You nailed it on the club team issue. Pros and cons.
Mitch (NJ)
Will Nimmo ever play? Does he even exist?
Klaw (2:19 PM)
Lot of prep guys from last year's draft will make their debuts next week in short-season ball. Bubba Starling is another.
brian (brooklyn)
Late to the party but regarding your answer from earlier on Cozens, he gained 50-60 pounds in one summer and has rage issues?
Klaw (2:20 PM)
I have no idea what you're getting at here.
Steven (Toronto)
Is TDA ready for a full time gig at the MLB level now?
Klaw (2:20 PM)
I think so (I'm assuming that's Travis d'Arnaud).
Al (Chicago)
How many clown questions today bro?
Klaw (2:20 PM)
Including yours?
Klaw (2:21 PM)
OK that's all for this week. I may be at the Mets game on Saturday night and, if so, hope to see some of you there. Thanks for all the questions.
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