Fantasy NFL with KC Joyner

Welcome to SportsNation! On Thursday, ESPN Insider KC Joyner will stop by to chat and give you an early start on your fantasy football team.
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
More KC Joyner: Chats | @kcjoynertfs | NFL index
Buzzmaster (4:13 PM)
Hang on everyone. KC's had some storms whip through his area that have been playing games with his internet connection and power.
Kc Joyner (4:16 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
Kc Joyner (4:16 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
John (NY)
KC..how excited should I be about taking David Wilson on my fantasy keeper league?
Kc Joyner (4:17 PM)
Very much excited. Wilson may not get to be a bell cow but he will be a 250-300 carry/target guy in the future.
AJ (Keeper Land )
Please help Keep Stafford and lose a 4th round pick or Dez and lose a 5th round pick? this is a PPR league if that makes a difference.
Kc Joyner (4:18 PM)
Keep Stafford. The divide between the top 5 QBs and the next tier is large, so avoid that drop if possible.
brenden (ny)
is it worth taking peterson or charles in the first round? i believe it is boom or bust
Kc Joyner (4:19 PM)
Peterson lasted until pick 44 of our ESPN Experts Mock Draft. That's the second draft in a row he lasted until then, so a first round choice shouldn't be necessary, at least not right now.
Kc Joyner (4:19 PM)
Peterson lasted until pick 44 of our ESPN Experts Mock Draft. That's the second draft in a row he lasted until then, so a first round choice shouldn't be necessary, at least not right now.
Rick (MI)
Do you still think Mike Wallace is better than Calvin Johnson?
Kc Joyner (4:20 PM)
Metrically speaking, Wallace is still ahead of Johnson in many ways, but from a fantasy perspective, Johnson is No. 1 and it isn't really even close.
Rah-Steam (Hackensack, N.J.)
Which of the Raiders WR's would you pick first in a PPR league? I feel as if Denarius Moore will be a top ten receiver.
Kc Joyner (4:21 PM)
Moore would be the first pick (thinking he's got top 20 WR potential) but DHB isn't far behind him.
Ben Columbia SC [via mobile]
Is it worth giving up MJD as a keeper to get Trent Richardson for sure with my first pick so I can keep him in the future thx
Kc Joyner (4:22 PM)
MJD has had more carries over the past three years than any other RB. He's also nearing the career workload barrier that normally indicates a drop-off in performance. Get Richardson in his place.
anthony (LA)
brees or brady?
Kc Joyner (4:22 PM)
Brees. According to the TFS Fantasy Football Draft Guide, Brees has the second most favorable schedule among quarterbacks.
Kc Joyner (4:23 PM)
Related note - the draft guide is slated to be released on June 20. Pre-order prices are in effect until then. Check out www.thefootballscientist.com for more info (only site plug of the chat).
Joe (NYC)
KC, you won't get this unless you were a big fan of the Far Side, but it seems like your Wallace over Megatron article was just like Gary Larsen's 'Cow Tools'. People didn't understand and had a big problem with it, but in the end it made him more popular than ever.
Kc Joyner (4:24 PM)
The Far Side rules! And the funny thing about Wallace is that he is now seen as being at least close to Johnson's value territory. All he needs is one big year and that perception gap will be closed.
Max (Ankeny)
Any chance of Greg Little being a top 30 receiver this year?
Kc Joyner (4:25 PM)
The WR depth in this year's fantasy football world is so deep that a top 30 spot is probably not in his future. Still like his chances of being an underrated prospect.
Homer (Springfield)
Who do you think is a sleeper in the fantasy draft?
Kc Joyner (4:27 PM)
There are a lot of candidates. Will probably be writing an Insider article on that very subject, so can't cover all of them here :-)
Rob (California)
Hi KC, keeper league, keep 4 of 5, ARodgers, RRice, CJ2k, Jamaal Charles, Gronkowski. I see it coming down to Gronk vs. Charles. Thoughts?
Kc Joyner (4:28 PM)
Agree on that. Would keep Gronk, as Charles is now in a work share.
Craig (NJ)
Total hunch here scientist but I think Jake Locker is a big time fantasy sleeper. Am in a 6 pt passing TD league. THoughts?
Kc Joyner (4:29 PM)
Completely agree, at least as long as he wins the starting job. The Titans have a ton of vertical talent at WR and TE.
B (NC)
Do you think Cruz will post top 10 numbers again this year?
Kc Joyner (4:31 PM)
Not quite top 10, as the WR depth is so great this year. Thinking more like top 15.
Kc Joyner (4:31 PM)
Not quite top 10, as the WR depth is so great this year. Thinking more like top 15.
Scott (Northglenn, CO)
How would you rank the Eagles and Cowboys WRs in a .5 PPR league? Maclin, Dez, Miles, DJax?
Kc Joyner (4:32 PM)
Miles, Dez, Maclin, DJax. Maclin is the wild card, as he could be the best of that group this year.
Max (Ankeny)
When will ESPN fantasy football stuff get going? I can't wait much longer!
Kc Joyner (4:32 PM)
Not sure of the exact date but know that it will be in the very near future.
Jimmy N (Arlington, VA)
Long time, no chat there Scientisto!! Not even joking KCJ, the Vikings QB situation is such a mess with Ponder and Webb, am I crazy for thinking SAAAAGE might get a look? Why wont the Vikings unleash the fury??
Kc Joyner (4:33 PM)
Jimmy! Great to have you back in the chat. Hate to say it, but the Vikes are going to lean on the very prolific skills of Ponder. He's got the chops to be a top 15 QB in the near future.
Craig (Work)
How many carries is Run DMC going to get this year, and can he manage to stay healthy?
Kc Joyner (4:34 PM)
The Raiders would like him to be a bell cow, but those injuries just keep cropping up. If he stays healthy for a full year, he's a 275-300 carry RB (at least).
Harry S. Truman (Provo, Utah)
KC, in looking back at Tom Brady's career stats, I noticed that he was not statistically dominant until 2007. In fact, if you look at his first six years (in which he won 3 SBs), his numbers looked very similar to Eli Manning's numbers over the last four years. Do you think Eli can make the same statistical leap that Brady did, and what would it take for him to do it?
Kc Joyner (4:35 PM)
Interesting point. What it would take is an offense that asks Eli to pass the ball a ton, and that is exactly what the Giants are morphing into.
Scott (Northglenn, CO)
You have Peyton ranked # ___ among QBs, right after ___ and before ___...
Kc Joyner (4:36 PM)
Still finishing up the last of the TFS 2012 Draft Guide rankings, but at the moment Peyton is going to rank right about No. 12.
Snakes (Philly)
Scientist- shout out to BD (DC).... its his bachelor party this weekend! RG3 shoudl be drafted in what round to ensure I get him as a future keeper.... 6th?? (keep in mind its a DC based league)
Kc Joyner (4:37 PM)
RG3 is going to be a top 15 QB in most draft rooms, and in a DC based draft room he'll be a top 10 QB. Got to think of getting him as early as round 3-4 in that situation. The Skins paid a hefty price for him and so will Washington based FFB owners.
Craig (NJ)
Every year I draft Shonn Greene and every year he breaks my heart. Am I wrong to think this year will be different with no L.T. and a new OC who likes to run?
Kc Joyner (4:39 PM)
Greene was one of the least productive backs in the GBYPA metric last year and he will be losing goal line carries to Tebow. His lowered draft value may not lead him to be quite the disappointment he was in past years, but he won't be great, either.
Gorman (NoVa)
Lots of losses to the Ravens D this year...where do you think they rank fantasy wise for 2012?
Kc Joyner (4:40 PM)
The TFS Draft Guide has them rated as a mid-range D/ST1. Might be the kind of D one can get for a reduced price and still get very good productivity out of.
Norman (NY)
Is Demarco Murray worth a 3rd round pick or is the injury risk too great?
Kc Joyner (4:41 PM)
He could be worth as much as a round two pick, so round three is a good place to take him.
Dansby (Barber Shop)
Hello KCJ!! Which RB timeshare is the hardest for you this year so far?
Kc Joyner (4:43 PM)
Indy is one. Green Bay could be another. Carolina would have to be the worst in the sense that they have so many talented running backs.
Rah-Steam (Hackensack, N.J.)
Can Gronk and Jimmy G put up the same numbers as last season? Will there be as big a gap between them and the number 3 TE?
Kc Joyner (4:45 PM)
They were both very highly rated in the ESPN Fantasy Football ratings summit (Gronk was actually rated 14th overall), so their fantasy value could be through the roof. They will likely see some level of drop-off and when those two factors are combined, it might make it a better play to draft one of the TEs ranked 3 or lower.
Kc Joyner (4:45 PM)
They were both very highly rated in the ESPN Fantasy Football ratings summit (Gronk was actually rated 14th overall), so their fantasy value could be through the roof. They will likely see some level of drop-off and when those two factors are combined, it might make it a better play to draft one of the TEs ranked 3 or lower.
Phil (On a Smoke Break)
Hey KC. It's a rebuilding year as I traded away some picks to make a run last year. Give me a guy or two to target in the late rounds who may be a big impact guy next year.
Kc Joyner (4:46 PM)
A very late pick could be Stephen Hill. NY isn't going to throw the ball a ton but when they do throw it, it will be vertical and Hill is superb at those routes. Am thinking he could be this generation's Wesley Walker or Al Toon.
Scott (Northglenn, CO)
Where was Matt Forte taken in your last mock draft, with the addition of Mike Bush and the possiblity of a holdout?
Kc Joyner (4:47 PM)
Forte went 14th in today's ESPN Fantasy Experts Mock Draft 2.0.
Kc Joyner (4:48 PM)
Might have been picked a bit too high because of the holdout issue.
Blessing (Philly)
I've come in last two years in a row and need a corporate rebranding. What is the best team name you've encountered in your travels?
Kc Joyner (4:48 PM)
The chatters are always great for help with this type of thing. Any suggestions out there?
Mark (Michigan)
HI KC.What is your take on Greg Little this year, good sleeper value or still a project in work?
Kc Joyner (4:50 PM)
Getting Weeden at QB is a huge help, as Weeden has a proven history of helping others reach their potential. The guide has Little listed as a WR4 because of that.
jerry (Detroit)
Take Mike Wallace early or wait for Antonio Brown? For all the hype wallace only had what a little over 1k yards...
Kc Joyner (4:51 PM)
Brown also had more targets. Wallace is still a great fantasy player and could have a dominant year in an effort to land a big contract, but Brown is also in a contract year. If you have to pick only one, waiting for Brown makes sense as long his perceived value doesn't start to skyrocket.
Jeff Grpman (Detroit)
On bedrest for a few days kc. What is the best football movie out there?
Kc Joyner (4:52 PM)
My personal favorite is North Dallas Forty. Hilarious movie, but also one grounded in reality and makes viewers think about how the world of pro football works.
Mr. Burns (Springfield)
Is it worth keeping both Decker and Thomas if Peyton is only about 80% (as appears to be the case)
Kc Joyner (4:53 PM)
If Peyton doesn't get his arm back to where he can hit stretch vertical passes, Thomas loses a ton of his value. Decker would still be worth keeping if Peyton still has intermediate arm strength (which reports say is the case).
Ray Finkle (Lois Einhorn)
How should a fantasy player properly value Chris Johnson this year? 2K is out of the question, but he can't be as bad as most of 2011...
Kc Joyner (4:54 PM)
There are many reasons to think Johnson will have a fantastic season. Got him rated quite high.
Bob (DC)
200 budget--keep Antonio Brown for 13, Vick for 31 or neither?
Kc Joyner (4:54 PM)
Like Brown at 13, not very sold on Vick for 31.
Brett (CT)
Hey KC, do you provide updates to your draft kit up until the season begins, if we purchase in June?
Kc Joyner (4:55 PM)
Absolutely. The guide will get updated every 10-14 days until preseason kicks off and then it is updated every 7-10 days. I'll add a note to the site that addresses this in greater detail.
Jason (Bmore)
Glad to have the chat back! Is this the year Dez Bryant becomes a top 5 fantasy wr?
Kc Joyner (4:57 PM)
It is awesome to be talking about fantasy football again, isn't it! Lots of reason to like Bryant's 2012 potential but still have him rated as a high- to mid-range WR2. There is just a ton of quality WR depth in this year's draft.
AJ (Keeperland)
When is the experts mock draft 2.0 going to be posted?
Kc Joyner (4:58 PM)
I believe it will be posted in the next day or so. One of the participants is writing a reaction article that I believe will serve as the announcement.
Fester (Langhorne, PA)
Hey KC, what's the word? Be in touch soon. Just starting to get in fantasy mode.
Kc Joyner (4:58 PM)
Fester! Getting all of the old gang back - can't beat it!
Ryan (NYC)
Will Andre Johnson be his old self this year?
Kc Joyner (4:59 PM)
Depends on what is meant by his old self. If that means a dominant WR who loses significant time to injury, that sounds about right.
John (Hartford, CT)
Blessing, this year, you can't go wrong throwing The Avengers into your team name...
Kc Joyner (4:59 PM)
A cool suggestion for a team name.
John (Hartford, CT)
I have Nicks, Ben Tate, and D'angelo in a keeper league, all to favorable contracts, and all a risk due to position crowding or injury. Who's the best bang for the buck here? Also, is the chat league happening again this year?
Kc Joyner (5:01 PM)
Nicks. He's still the No. 1 WR in NY and that won't change even if Cruz keeps playing at last year's level. Chat league will definitely be a go, will be sending something out about that not long after the draft guide is complete.
brian (de)
Who are some Wr that could end up number 2 overall that may surprise people.... marshall?
Kc Joyner (5:02 PM)
Julio Jones would be the first name to come to mind. He was fantastic last year and if he gets 130-140 targets (a huge upgrade over his roughly 90 targets last year), he'll make a run at being a top 5 WR.
Your Name (Your Location)
I have Vick at a value keeper contract- but is he a top 10 QB this year? Has Philly done enough to rebuild their line?
Kc Joyner (5:03 PM)
This subject will probably be covered in a future TFS ESPN.com Insider article, but in a nutshell, Vick is a shaky pick for a top 10 QB spot. His productivity isn't as great as is generally thought and there is the durability issue.
Craig (NJ)
I'm crazy high on Robert Meachem. How high do you think he goes this year?
Kc Joyner (5:04 PM)
The most recent ESPN top 200 rankings have him listed as the No. 29 WR. He's got the skill to rank top 20 but has to prove he can deal with a larger workload. I don't think he quite does that this year, but he does step up to earn a top 25 WR spot.
Scott (Northglenn, CO)
What do you make of Mario Manningham? Like the talent, hate the QB...sorry Harbaugh...
Kc Joyner (5:06 PM)
Smith is actually a very good QB in many ways and he's got a better than average vertical pass history. SF will throw the ball more this year and that will make keep Manningham as a solid spot start.
Wig (Philly)
DeSean killed me last year. What do you think, should I buy low off a down year or is he someone I should avoid.
Kc Joyner (5:07 PM)
If you can land him as a WR3, he's a good option. Anything higher than that is too big of a price to pay.
Kc Joyner (5:08 PM)
Well, it's been fun but Mrs. Scientist will be calling the kids and me to dinner shortly, so it's time to run. Quick notes - the TFS material is always posted on Twitter @KCJoynerTFS. More info on the draft guide (which will be released early next week and currently has pre-order pricing available) and the start-sit service can be found at www.thefootballscientist.com. Hope to see you all here next week!
SportsNation on Facebook
THIS WEEK'S CHATS
- 11:00 AMNoleNation's David Hale
- 12:00 PMNFL with Dan Graziano
- 1:00 PMSweetSpot's Schoenfield
- 1:00 PMCubs, Sox with Levine
- 2:00 PMNFL blogger Kevin Seifert
- 2:00 PMGeauxTigerNation's Laney
- 2:00 PMBoxing with Brian Campbell
- 2:00 PMNHL with Katie Strang
- 2:00 PMNASCAR with Newton
- 3:00 PMNFL columnist Ashley Fox
- 4:00 PMNFL with James Walker
- 4:00 PMHornsNation's Strickland
- 11:00 AMFantasy's Eric Karabell
- 12:00 PMNFL with Matt Williamson
- 12:00 PMDawgNation's David Ching
- 1:00 PMMMA with Brett Okamoto
- 1:00 PMNBA Insider Chad Ford
- 1:00 PMDallas' Jean-Jacques Taylor
- 2:00 PMNFL with Jamison Hensley
- 3:00 PMFantasy NASCAR Focus
- 4:00 PMGatorNation's Mike DiRocco
- 5:00 PMWeAreSC's Garry Paskwietz
- 11:00 AMFantasy Sports' AJ Mass
- 12:00 PMPatriots with Mike Reiss
- 12:00 PMNFL with Paul Kuharsky
- 12:00 PMWolverineNation's Rothstein
- 12:00 PMTideNation's Scarborough
- 1:00 PMMLB Insider Keith Law
- 1:00 PMNFL blogger Mike Sando
- 1:00 PMJohn Oreovicz on Indy 500
- 3:00 PMBoxer Delvin Rodriguez
- 4:00 PMFootball Scientist KC Joyner

You must be signed in to post a comment