KC Joyner

  (4:00 PM)

Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!

Will CA [via mobile]

When is the best time of year to draft?

KC Joyner

  (4:02 PM)

Lots of answers to that one. Some owners like to draft right on HOF weekend to get the season kicked off as early as possible. Others like to wait until the regular season is about to kick off so that preseason injuries don't impact the squad. Chatters - weigh in on this. What's your favorite time to draft?

micah (atlanta)

PPR league - please tier these guys as keepers (we keep three): Stafford, J Charles, SJax, Lynch, R Mathews, Cruz, Helu. Thanks!

KC Joyner

  (4:03 PM)

Quick rating would go like this - Stafford, Mathews, Cruz, Charles, Jackson, Lynch, Helu.

Tim (El Cajon, CA)

KC, how do you think Eddie Royal will do with the Chargers? He had a good year with Shanny but then went down with the next 2 coaches. What that just because he didn't fit into their scheme maybe?

KC Joyner

  (4:03 PM)

He gives SD someone who can catch the dink/dunk throws but that really doesn't give him much in the way of fantasy football value.

KC Joyner

  (4:04 PM)

On a related note, there is great news - the 2012 TFS Fantasy Football Draft Guide is now complete (and can be ordered at www.thefootballscientist.com). Got lots of cool info in it.

Kram (Waikikeek)

Hi KC, some of your colleagues are suggesting QB and TE early in the draft. I am reluctant to do that because then I will miss out on the top preseason RBs. Do you have a sleeper RB this year? Last year you told us Matt Forte, who was producing like a top 3 RB before he got hurt. Can you give us any clues?

KC Joyner

  (4:06 PM)

I've got Gronk and Graham rated lower than most, as it really doesn't make sense to draft them before the WR1 choices. As far as sleepers go, not sure that Richardson counts as one but there are many reasons to think he'll be a top 10 RB this year.

Joe (Decatur, GA)

I saw you drafted Adrian Peterson in the ESPN expert mock draft. I have a hard time thinking he'll be a big factor in fantasy this year. Can you explain your thought process in drafting him?

KC Joyner

  (4:07 PM)

That was a two-part process, as the Peterson pick meant drafting Gerhart a bit earlier than he would normally be drafted. The idea there is that between the two of them, it will equal a top 5 player. A bit risky because of All Day's health status but the way the draft was working out, a chance had to be taken on him or that team would not have had an elite running back.

Rick (Irvine, CA)

I see you pegged Crabtree as a sleeper, is he the WR, you think takes the leap to start ala Nicks, a few years ago?

KC Joyner

  (4:09 PM)

The guide has Crabtree rated 36th, so he's a good WR but probably not quite a sleeper. Guide does say Maclin could be a breakout candidate.

Mark (Michigan)

Hey KC:Lions look improved on both sides do you think it will be them or the Bears in playoffs, with Pack winning division most likely? Liked your article "Patriots Will Have Most Improved Defense too, link: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8071100/nfl-improvement-expected-drafting-one-side-ball

KC Joyner

  (4:10 PM)

Thanks for that. As far as the Lions go, it all depends on Forte. If he holds out, Detroit should get that playoff spot. If Forte plays all 16 games, Chicago gets the nod.

Person (DC)

What's the current outdoor temperature where you are?

KC Joyner

  (4:10 PM)

Odd question. 86 degrees.

mike (mn)

How can you use numbers in a situation which has changed drastically from one year to the next... for Example, Kellen Davis wasn't used much as a pass catcher in Mike Martz offense but will be in a Tice offense, how do you factor this in? Also, speaking of TE the Gronk, Hernandez combo was a deadly matchup problem for defenses. Teams will likely try to emulate the Patriots a bit more, but which players are capable of putting up Gronkowski like numbers, and which players are capable of putting up Hernandez like numbers (Or at least seeing significant improvements as they are used in that type of role in the offense)?

KC Joyner

  (4:11 PM)

Can't see anyone replicating the big TE numbers this year. Many things point towards last year being an anomaly even for Gronk/Graham.

Aron (STL)

KC, using stats is their anyway we can compare Brian Quick to any receiver that a D-1 football?

KC Joyner

  (4:12 PM)

The issue with Quick is that his FCS stats were really good but they weren't dominant. He's got a ton of physical skill but if that didn't translate into dominating FCS competition, it might not bode well for his dominating NFL competition.

Scott (Northglenn, CO)

If Harvin is truly available, don't the Broncos HAVE to offer a 2nd rounder? And maybe a first?

KC Joyner

  (4:13 PM)

Harvin's been an injury magnet both in college and the pros. Denver might just decide it doesn't want to deal with the headaches that trading for him would entail.

Joe (Decatur, GA)

Best time to draft? After the 3rd preseason game. You know who the starters are for most teams. If any major injuries happened, you know about them. Most of the guys who play a lot in the 4th preseason game are fighting for a roster spot...therefore likely won't be a fantasy factor until later in the season (injuries), etc...

KC Joyner

  (4:14 PM)

One vote for after the 3rd preseason game.

Jason (NY)

Every sports fantasy draft is best done as close to the start of the regular season as possible. You know more about whos on the roster and whos hurt etc.

KC Joyner

  (4:14 PM)

One vote for a draft after the preseason ends.

Craig G. (Fairfield, CA)

Hey KC, can you rank the NFC West QB's in the order you would want them on your team? Thanks!

KC Joyner

  (4:16 PM)

Can do! For a fantasy team, it would be as follows: Smith, Kolb, Bradford, Seattle QB (got to wait to see how the QB battle develops).

Nick (Chicago)

Anything wrong with grabbing Richardson over someone like CJ2K or DMC in a keeper league where you keep 1 rookie for free?

KC Joyner

  (4:16 PM)

Richardson over DMC is good. CJ2K should rate over Richardson.

KC Joyner

  (4:17 PM)

CJ2 rates quite high on the TFS running back cheat sheet.

John (Hartford, CT)

What to make of the Bucs? I doubt Freeman repeats his TD/INT ratio from 2010, but with no lockout, new coach, VJax, RBs, I could see the whole offense improving this year.

KC Joyner

  (4:18 PM)

Lots to like about Tampa Bay but from a fantasy perspective, there are a lot of question marks. Got Jackson rated highly but am not quite as sold on Freeman (like his talent, but it will take a while to get this offense to gel).

Scott (Northglenn, CO)

Monday before the season opener is our draft day...that being said, we have guys that will draft players that get hurt in the preseason and are out for the year -- so not everyone stays p to date...

KC Joyner

  (4:19 PM)

It's just hard to believe that fantasy owners wouldn't keep up to date on that type of stuff. Incredible. But it does make for fun stories when that person is told about the incredible screw-up they just made.

Dennis (MI)

is Frank Gore still in the Top 8 of running backs?

KC Joyner

  (4:20 PM)

Not quite, as he ranks 12th on the TFS Fantasy Draft Guide cheat sheet.

Rob (Frankfort, IL)

PPR league 3 keepers...We start 2 QB, 3 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, K, D...Aaron Rodgers for $18 and Matthew Stafford for $10 are no brainers...My other options are Chris Johnson for $26, Jamaal Charles for $16, Jordy Nelson for $1, Julio Jones for $1 and Dez Bryant for $1...Who do I keep???

KC Joyner

  (4:21 PM)

Johnson is going to have a great year, but it's hard to justify him versus the $1 price for the WRs. Would say that Jones is the best option at $1.

KC Joyner

  (4:21 PM)

But you really can't go wrong with just about any of those choices. A good place to be!

Scott (Northglenn, CO)

Rank these AFC West RBs in order - Mathews, JC, DMC, MacGahee...on how you see them producing this year kind sir...

KC Joyner

  (4:23 PM)

The TFS Draft Guide has Mathews tops among that group, followed by DMC, Charles and McGahee.

Joe (San Francisco, CA)

2nd year purchaser of your book. Had a question about CJ1K. While I understand your point about standard plays vs counter plays, how does this solve the bad blocking problem? Bad blocking 60% of the time with little o-line change does not sound like a problem that got fixed. Did you look at good vs bad blocking by pieces of the season? (games 1-9 vs 10-17?) Thanks.

KC Joyner

  (4:24 PM)

The quick answer is that CJ did get better blocking down the stretch. There's more to it but that's the answer that can fit in the chat.

KC Joyner

  (4:24 PM)

And thanks for getting the guide again!

phill (pa)

Is'nt richardson a rather odd selection for a rb considering the division he plays in or are you thinking he's going to get the carries because he has a rookie qb

KC Joyner

  (4:25 PM)

It's as much that the Browns had much better run blocking than they were given credit for last year. They ranked in the middle of the league in good blocking rate but were dead last in GBYPA because of how bad Hillis played. Richardson will do a lot better job of getting yards with the blocking Cleveland's front wall gives him.

Bob (Claremont,NH)

In a 10 team league with 6pts for a td pass which QB'S will go in that first round?

KC Joyner

  (4:26 PM)

At 6 points per TD pass, a case could be made that Rodgers, Brady, Brees and Stafford should all be first round picks.

Joe (Decatur, GA)

How do you like Greg Little as a sleeper this year?

KC Joyner

  (4:27 PM)

I like his talent and he should get a lot of targets. Got him rated as a WR6 right now but think he could offer at least WR4 value.

Leslie Nielsen (Airplane)

Just wanted you to know, we're all counting on you...why do you see CJ bouncing back this year? It was strange how he ran last year, don't know whether it was tentative, or not to get hurt, or what...whyd oes that change?

KC Joyner

  (4:29 PM)

It's been a while since we had some Airplane quotes in this chat! The short answer on CJ is that there were many factors that led to his early poor play. Those factors were fixed by year's end and should not be factors this year. The guide has more detail on that, but that's the quick overview of the story.

Manny (Austin)

Football Keeper Question. Can keep 3 guys in rounds originally drafted. My only decent keeper is Ray Rice (2nd rd) and am thinking of trading him for depth. I was offered Welker (7th), McGahee (8th) and Maclin (9th) for him. Hate trading Rice, but this gives me 3 solid starters (plus a fourth with my now free 2nd rd pick). Thoughts?

KC Joyner

  (4:31 PM)

The guide rates players according to a color grade system. Rice is a blue rated player (the highest possible grade and a very rare rating). Welker and Maclin are both green rated (second highest rated tier) and McGahee is a yellow-rated player. One blue for two greens and a yellow seems like a fair deal in this case, so pull the trigger on that trade.

Angry Mike (SF, CA)

Scientist, my man! Been a while. Before injury Demarco Murray looked like the real deal. Did my Cowboy love blind me to a mediocre player, or is there something there? As always, thanks.

KC Joyner

  (4:32 PM)

Murray had an 8.2 GBYPA and ranks 8th on the TFS Draft Guide running back cheat sheet, so your eyes did not deceive you!

Nordstrom (Buffalo)

Bills D has a monster front 7- will it be enough to stop us from getting torched? Or will we be Lions NorthEast?

KC Joyner

  (4:33 PM)

Got the Bills ranked as a low-end D/ST1. Really like the talent upgrades but am not quite yet ready to move them to a green-rated status.

Paul (Denver)

We draft the Sunday before the Thursday night game. That way there's no hard feelings or unequal advantage before the seasons starts.

KC Joyner

  (4:34 PM)

Having a late draft is great for avoiding the preseason injuries that can make for a very bad fantasy season. As long as it fits with everyone's schedule, it's the way to go.

Larry (Pasco, WA)

What type of impact does Melvin Ingram have on the Chargers 32 ranked 3rd down defense this year?

KC Joyner

  (4:35 PM)

He'll help but SD still didn't make it into the top 25 of the TFS Draft Guide cheat sheet rating.

Dan (LA)

KC, weird draft situation in a 12 team PPR. We can keep 1 player which results in us being moved, in random order, to the back of round 1 behind those who choose not to keep. Given that the best players will be kept, does it make more sense to keep Graham and get 2 more picks before in the snake than hoping to get Matthews, either AJ or Forte and waiting on late 2nd round scraps?

KC Joyner

  (4:37 PM)

Graham and Gronk both got that rare blue rating but they rank 34 & 35, respectively, on the overall rating list. Got to think drafting Graham that early might be too early.

Joe (Decatur, GA)

Do you see Julio Jones surpassing Roddy White as the Falcon's go-to WR this season?

KC Joyner

  (4:37 PM)

Yep. He actually rates in front of White in the TFS Fantasy Draft Guide.

Bobby (Madison, WI)

KC! I'll eb ordering the Draft Guide tonight. Every year you have "that guy". A guy who you rank way above other experts and then proves you right. Chris Johnson in 2009, Hakeem Nicks in 2010, Eli Manning in 2011. Who is it in 2012? Thanks!

KC Joyner

  (4:39 PM)

It's good to hear you will be getting the guide! Just hope that comment doesn't jinx this year's pick. There could be multiple picks that meet the requirement but so far CJ2K looks like the top one. He's apt to have a much better year than some are thinking he will have. Am also fairly sold on Maclin.

Wadd (Orygun)

Draft Monday night after the preseason ends. Keeper question, 10 team league. Keep Ray Rice as the #1 pick or No keeper and draft at 10 & 11. players get points for carries, catches and completions. Thanks boss.

KC Joyner

  (4:41 PM)

There are 12 blue rated players in the draft guide. If you could get two of those at 10/11, it would be better than getting Rice (who is, of course, in the blue rated category).

Craig G. (Fairfield, CA)

Do you think Steven Jackson is done? Would you rather have him, Michael Turner or Frank Gore?

KC Joyner

  (4:42 PM)

He's not done (he had a great GBYPA last year) but Turner is rated higher on the TFS Draft Guide RB cheat sheet.

Kevin (Mile High)

We usually draft on the Saturday before the first real games. That way adult beverages and the smack talking about everyones team can flow freely.

KC Joyner

  (4:42 PM)

Gotta like this approach.

Rob (Frankfort, IL)

Thanks for answering my question!!! The best time to draft is the weekend before Labor Day...It's been my experience that a lot of people go out of town Labor Day weekend...

KC Joyner

  (4:43 PM)

Good point on the Labor Day item. Holiday can make it difficult for everyone to draft.

Loghan (NYC)

i have the 1st pick (12th) in my ppr keeper league..am i crazy to go RB/RB since i think WR is pretty deep this year? possibility to get CJ and trent or DMC is very tempting..what do you think?

KC Joyner

  (4:44 PM)

If you could land two of those 3 RBs mentioned, that would absolutely be the way to go. WR & QB are both deeper talent pools than RB this year.

Paul (Denver)

Pick three out of four for my keepers in my ppr league- Stafford, AP, Graham, Mega? I'm thinking of dropping AD.

KC Joyner

  (4:45 PM)

Graham would be the one to drop. Peterson looks like he will be back at full strength and playing with a vengeance. Even if he does miss time, just draft Gerhart and wait out the 6 weeks until Peterson can get back on the roster.

Jeff (KCMO)

This is necessarily a fantasy question; but I dont want to sell you short on your football knowledge :) Do you think it's possible that the KC Chiefs are this years 49ers?

KC Joyner

  (4:47 PM)

Good change of pace question. It all depends on Cassel. If he can get his vertical pass game together and utilize the talent around him, the Chiefs can be this year's SF. If not, it will be time for Kansas City to get a new QB.

Scott (Northglenn, CO)

Other classic draft mistake -- drinking too much and waking up the next day saying " I drafted WHO???"

KC Joyner

  (4:48 PM)

Well, it's better than a lot of other things one can wake up the next day and not remember.

Craig G. (Fairfield, CA)

Can you give some of your sleeper RB picks? Maybe someone in the mold of James Starks, Stevan Ridley or David Wilson?

KC Joyner

  (4:50 PM)

Hillis could be one. The Chiefs have the OC who helped him to a great year in Cleveland in '10.

Tebow Walks (NYC)

Am I really running the Jets red zone offense? If so, isn't that Armageddon for Jets entire offense but maybe Keller?

KC Joyner

  (4:51 PM)

It's Armageddon to Greene and is a big part of why he ranked 28th on the TFS Draft Guide RB cheat sheet. It could also hurt Sanchez, as he had six touchdowns on the ground last year and all of them were on planned running plays.

Robert (Richmond, CA (79 minute flight to Seattle))

Who are your top 5 sleepers this season? And do you think Ryan Broyels is one of them?

KC Joyner

  (4:53 PM)

Broyles has a ton of talent but it's all going to boil down to if he can return from his injury quickly enough. If not, it could be difficult for him to get up to speed in midseason. Got to think he will be a very good sleeper in 2013.

Craig G. (Fairfield, CA)

In most rankings, Stafford leads the second teir QB group. Who would you put on his level?

KC Joyner

  (4:53 PM)

He's in the top tier group in the draft guide. He's on par with the other four blue-rated QBs.

KC Joyner

  (4:55 PM)

Well, it's been fun but the pizza is just about ready to hit the dinner table, so it's time to run. Quick notes - the TFS material is always posted on Twitter @KCJoynerTFS. The Draft Guide (which has over 400 pages of material and includes a slew of new metrics) is now available for purchase at www.thefootballscientist.com. Hope to see you all here next week!