Chat with KC Joyner
Welcome to SportsNation! On Thursday, ESPN Insider KC Joyner, will be here to answer your NFL questions.
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
KC - It seems that most Fantasy Football experts tend to ignore the impact of when a team changes offensive coordinators and how that effects schemes (except when Mike Martz is hired/fired). For example, in New England, Bill O'Brien was the play-caller of the vaunted 2-TE offense and is now coaching at Penn State. Josh McDaniels isnt exactly a TE friendly OC (for FFL purposes). What's your view, generally speaking, on predicting the impact of an OC changing
KC Joyner (4:01 PM)
A lot of it depends on if the coordinator is the sort of coach who will adjust the playcalling to the available talent. Some coaches will run their system regardless of the players on their squad and that can limit the value of players who don't fit into their system. McDaniels won't be that type of coach (Belichick would not let him even if McDaniels were so inclined) so don't look for playcalling to limit the NE tight ends.
Hello KC, do you think Victor Cruz is the real deal? Can he remain a top 10 fantasy WR this year?
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
Depends on the definition of real deal. If that means "will he repeat his 2011 performance" the answer is probably no. If that means "is he a very good/potentially great NFL WR" the answer is probably yes.
Phil (Green Bay)
Hey KC, Ifyou had to choose between Sproles, Martin, or Cruz in a Dynasy league who are you taking? (TD HEavy League)
KC Joyner (4:04 PM)
Tough call. Would probably say Sproles but it's a close call between him and Martin. Sproles for now, that could change if the preseason shows Martin will be the bell cow in TB.
KC, I just wanted to say last year was my first year buying your draft guide and I won all 3 of my leagues. This year I will be getting the draft guide and the start'em/sit'em. Thanks for all your hard work. My wife also thanks for the new living room furniture we bought with all the winnings. I am in a great situation in my $350 cap league. I have Brady at $6 and Cam at $5. Do I look to trade one and if so which one would you trade or hold onto both since they are so cheap?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
Glad the guide was helpful! Brady and Cam are both blue-rated players in this year's TFS Draft Guide and since there are only 14 blue-rated players, it makes sense to hold onto both unless a simply awe-inspiring trade offer comes over.
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
Quick note - the 2012 TFS Draft Guide is now available for purchase. More info can be found at www.thefootballscientist.com. Only site plug of the chat.
How about Vernon Davis this year?
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
Really like his skills but am still not certain he will ever get full utilization in a Harbaugh offense. He may have a FFB point ceiling.
Jeff (Middletown, Ohio)
Serious keeper question! 12 team PPR dynasty league that TD's count for four points and you get bonus points (+5) for each 100 yard game rushing/receiving and 300 yard game passing. Which two do I keep from Ray Rice, Matt Stafford, and Calvin Johnson?
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
Got to go with the two players who will generate more overall points. That would be Rice and Stafford.
After McCoy, Foster, Rice, and MJD (in no order), who do you see as the safest bets at RB?
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
Chris Johnson has to be the next name up (and a case can be made for him to be rated even higher than that).
Have #1 pick in keeper league. My guys are MJD, Charles, Graham and AJ Green. Would you take Stafford (6pt passing tds) or Richardson (get to keep a rookie for free)?
KC Joyner (4:10 PM)
Tough call but Stafford has a blue rating (the highest rating in the draft guide) and Richardson has a green rating (second highest rating). Would have to say Stafford because of that.
What are your thoughts on Jay Cutler? 4,000 yards, 25 to 20 tds, 10 INTs out of the question?
KC Joyner (4:11 PM)
The interception total will probably be higher, as he had one of the highest BDRs in the league last year, but the yardage and TD totals are definitely in his achievable range.
Why do we keep hearing so much about the Texas Longhorn defense. They got run-up a few times last year. To be frank they were not very mentally tough at all last year. Are they being talked about strickly because of their experience and DC ? They still can't throw throw the ball so I guess it doesn't matter how good their defense is .
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
The thing about the Longhorns D is that they have two great CBs and a terrific strong safety. They did shut down more than a few rushing offenses last year, so they do have that type of ability to stop the run. Add in that the Big 12 offenses will take a step back this year due to the huge personnel losses in the passing game and it equals a path for the Texas D to have a dominant season.
Greetings KC, Which top 3 D's let up the fewest points this year? Thanks, Kevin
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
Hey, kmac, great to hear from you again! Hope the offseason has treated you well. Would say SF, Seattle and Pittsburgh would be the three best in that category.
Just curious, if I were to trade one who would you rather trade, Brady or Cam? I can keep each as long as I want, contract only goes up 10% a year which is nothing on those contracts
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
Depends on how long you plan on being in this league. If that answer is at least 3-5 years, trade Brady, as it is a risk to lean very heavily on QBs in their late 30s (which is how old he will be in that time frame).
Whats up KC!? I'm not understanding the NO love for my Detroit Lions. Com on man! No way the Bears are better and I believe my team will push the Packers. With that said I firmly believe The Lions are a 12-4 team. Its not like this is a team with aging veterans, this team is loaded with young talent and for the first time figured out how to win last year. Fairly and Suh will finally show how dominate they can be this year and Titus Young is the next Victor Cruz. That secondary was totaled with injuries last year and a healthy Houston and Berry will be a tuff combo. Ths is a Top 5 team and major contenders for the Superbowl. Everything is in place! Go LionsThe TFS fantasy football guide is the best! Hands Down!
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
Rock, count me in on the Detroit bandwagon but with the caveat that they play in the NFC North. That division has one great team (GB), one team that could be on verge of greatness (Chicago) and a team that is on its way back up from mediocrity (Minnesota). Detroit can hold its own but this division is getting close to NFC East caliber talent-wise.
Which WR will RG3 target most in 2012?
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
Garcon. Shanahan will want to turn him into one of the best vertical WRs in the NFL (not saying that will happen, just that the goal will be to get him to that level).
jaime (New Orleans)
Whats the deal with Pierre Thomas? All he has done is produce when he has played. Why don't the saints show him any love?
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
NO has a ton of quality running backs and that talent level causes them to take the old next man up mentality. It's cold-hearted at some level but that's the NFL.
Dave (St Louis)
Do you think there is a chance that Steve Smith (stl) returns to his old Giants form? Do you consider him a sleeper going into training camp?
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
A deep sleeper in that he's been battling injuries for a while now. Want to see that he is fully healthy before signing off on sleeper status.
Which Manning do you expect to perform better?
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
Eli. Until Peyton starts to show that his arm strength is back to 100 percent, he has to be considered the secondary Manning.
DeSean Jackson back this year?
KC Joyner (4:22 PM)
The TFS draft guide has him rated a great flex starter but there are still too many weaknesses in his game to consider him a week-to-week fantasy football starter.
Which player that is currently undrafted (like Victor Cruz, Laurent Robinson last year) or being selected towards the end of drafts (Cam Newton, DeMarco Murray last year) could be a breakout candidate for ADP player of the year?
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
Bernard Pierce might fit that description. He's still battling for the backup role but if he wins it, he could get the same level of rush/targets as Ricky Williams along with getting a good share of the goal line carries (he scored 27 rushing touchdowns last year).
Scott (Northglenn, CO)
Always respect your opinion, but on the 3 keepers question...wouldn't it make more sense to keep Megatron over Stafford? It's not about most overall points, but how many points better a player is at his position? QBs are almost always the highest scorers in any league...
KC Joyner (4:25 PM)
Reason Stafford was ranked over Johnson is point consistency. Look at how Johnson had some off games down the stretch last year and Stafford pretty much had none of those. It's a close call but that put Stafford ahead of Johnson.
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
To put it another way, they are both blue-rated players in the draft guide but on the top 66 chart, Stafford ranks ninth and Megatron ranks 11th. It's really close, in other words.
Kevin (lake Zurich)
REcently, Jaws said that Flacco has the strongest arm in the NFl, do you agree with that?
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
At the very least, Flacco has one of the strongest arms in the league and a good case can be made for his having the strongest arm.
Can you give me one more College insight . How do you rank Landry Jones ? he is sort of a Tony Romo in that he gets very little respect but seems to shatter team records. he also got a special tutor for the offseason so that should help his consistancy. Thanks
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
The concern for Jones is that he struggled when some of his better pass catching targets were lost to injury last year. The best QBs find a way to get productivity out of lesser talents and Jones didn't do that. He's still one of the best QBs in college football (and one of the best QBs in the Big 12, maybe behind only Geno Smith) but he has to find a way to get over that hurdle.
Scott (Northglenn, CO)
Are there enough balls in GB for Randall Cobb to break out? He could take Driver's snaps...
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
Driver was fairly productive last year as compared to most WRs but he was behind the curve if compared to the other GB WRs. The Packers are almost certainly going to distribute some of his targets elsewhere and Cobb will get a good portion of those. Trouble is he will have to compete with Jones as well as Driver, so target volume could still be an issue.
Thanks and I agree with what you said. The Red River Shootout should be much better this year.
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
Gonna be a great game. Texas will be looking for revenge and Oklahoma will be looking to show last year wasn't a fluke. Gotta figure College GameDay could be on site for that one!
KC, going into an auction or draft meant, for years, RB, RB, RB. The league has changed a lot w/ RBBC's and more explosive passing games. If you're going into an auction who do you place more of a premium on - getting a top tier QB, WR or RB?
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
In the end, it's all about getting as many elite and near-elite players as possible, regardless of position. The talent distribution of the league means that doesn't require going RB/RB/RB and that QBs can be taken in place of top RBs.
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
Well, hate to cut it short but something came up and I've got to hit the road. Quick notes - the TFS material is always posted on Twitter @KCJoynerTFS. More info on the 2012 version of the TFS Draft Guide (400+ pages of analysis and metrics) can be found at www.thefootballscientist.com. Hope to see you all here next week!