Fantasy Sports with AJ Mass
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AJ Mass (11:00 AM)
Good morning gang! We're back in business for another 60 minutes of fantasy chattage! Second cup of coffee is well in hand, so let's get right to the action. Who, pray tell, is up first?
wayne (va bch)
Early football question.I have to keep one; McFadden or Vick. TDs for both positions = 6 pts.All the big boys for both positions (Foster, Rice, Rodgers, Brees etc) will be gone.I really don't like either, but I have to go one way or the other. Help!
AJ Mass (11:01 AM)
I think there's always a dearth of RBs versus QBs. I'd keep DMC and try to grab a QB early on the redraft.
Is it safe to drop Drew Storen, or does he have a chance at saves?
AJ Mass (11:03 AM)
Might as well keep him for now. Tyler's done the job, but as we've seen this season (Bell, Axford, etc.) the bottom can fall out and the leash can get short quickly.
Ian Kennedy or James Shields ROS?
AJ Mass (11:04 AM)
Very concerned with Shields going forward. It's more than bad luck... so I'd roll with Ian.
For Votto and/or Ortiz replacement, take Luke Scott or Seth Smith? Daily OPS league.
AJ Mass (11:04 AM)
I'd look to Oakland for my answer here.
FOOTBALL! Out of all the injury risk RBs this season, who do you feel most confident with a 2nd/3rd round pick? (charles, Dmac, AP, Murray, Steve/fred jax)
AJ Mass (11:06 AM)
Health-wise it's Murray, though I'm not sold he's a legit talent just yet. If I'm taking a 2nd round flier, I go with Charles, then AP.
Youk or Morse ROS?
AJ Mass (11:07 AM)
Youk, and not just in terms of standing ovations.
FOOTBALL KEEPER!! Can only keep one WR & RB each position, Ryan Matthews or CJ2K , V-Jax or Harvin. Or keep Vick over any of them???
AJ Mass (11:08 AM)
I don't think CJ2K is done by any means. That said, I love Mathews to explode with Tolbert gone. Harvin is such a headache to his fantasy owners... but he wins out over V-Jax. I'd keep Vick over both WR though.
Hey AJ! Who do you like ROS, Victorino, DeAza, or Ellsbury?
AJ Mass (11:09 AM)
Jacoby, De Aza, Shane.
Carl (Fort Myers)
Please any update on Joey Bats??? how much time do u think he will end up missing?
AJ Mass (11:11 AM)
MRI will tell the tale. I would imagine it's a 2-week injury at best... but that's only a guess.
PPR: Rather take a chance on Charles, Forte or T Rich in Mid 2nd?
AJ Mass (11:12 AM)
We are going to be doing a Mock PPR later today. Not sure when the write-up will run, but it will be interesting to see how the recent signings impact things. Given Forte's deal, I'm inclined to go with him.
Are you concerned with Greinke? Seems a little mysterious that he's being given 10 days off
AJ Mass (11:13 AM)
I don't think so, given the bizarre nature of his ejection and back-to-back starts... I'd take it at face value and assume all will be well for his next start.
Fister or Sheets ROS?
AJ Mass (11:14 AM)
Nice to see Ben succeed after the long trip back... but I'm going with Doug.
Joe (Warwick, RI)
Chase Headley is getting mentioned as a possible trade candidate. Worth adding now in hopes that he may go to a hitters park?
AJ Mass (11:16 AM)
Not convinced he moves, but even if he doesn't, it's not like he hasn't been productive at PetCo. Worth the spec pickup.
3rd round too early for Eli assuming Brady, Brees, Stafford and Rodgers are gone?
AJ Mass (11:17 AM)
I think there's a bunch of QBs left at that point - Eli, Peyton, Philip, Cam, Michael... I'd wait until a few more went off the board in a 1-QB league.
Who has a better chance of a 2nd half surge - Anibal or Lester?
AJ Mass (11:19 AM)
Both fairly good candidates. I'd go with Anibal to have better stats, especially as an NL vs. AL pitcher.
Please rank ROS: Hosmer, Rizzo, Berkman, Cespedes
AJ Mass (11:20 AM)
Berkman, Rizzo, Yoenis, Hosmer.
I've been enjoying Dempster & Vogelsong, can they continue the super low ERA and WHIP? Buy, sell or hold?
AJ Mass (11:22 AM)
Always willing to move players for value. I think Dempster is an interesting case since that streak has been so publicized, I actually don't think you can trade him until it ends because of it.
Are you high on Rizzo or low on the other guys in TROY's question? Please just expand on your thoughts on Rizzo ROY and next year.
AJ Mass (11:23 AM)
I think we're dealing with such a small sample size, but the reason I am higher on Rizzo than most rookies is the fact he did fail the first time up and now has seemingly adjusted to his surroundings much better. That bodes well for him to be able to continue the good start well into the rest of the season and beyond.
Football!!!! 3rd pick in a 12 team league....assuming Foster is gone. Who do you prefer McCoy or Rice? Why?
AJ Mass (11:25 AM)
McCoy, but it's darn close. I don't think you can go wrong with either, unless they get hurt -- and injuries are a roll of the dice each year.
Have an open DH spot after the Votto injury, Cain or Colvin for the next month?
AJ Mass (11:26 AM)
I think Colvin has done enough to earn your trust... but of course, if it's speed you need, then maybe Cain helps you more.
Randi (San Diego)
AJ, love it when you do the Daily Notes, especially with your comments about Starting Pitchers. In your comment this morning about Shields versus Kennedy, surprised that you were so negative on Shields since you ranked them so close together in last week's re-ranks. What changed for you?
AJ Mass (11:30 AM)
Thanks... keep in mind that I don't do DN alone. Brian Gramling covers them on M-W. I handle the Th-Sun columns. I think we're always adjusting our opinions based on recent outings and as Shields continues to struggle, his value continues to drop.
Revere was just dropped in my league. Would you drop Span for him?
AJ Mass (11:33 AM)
No, I think I'd stick with Span, though the gap is not too large.
Phil (Sarasota, FL)
I'm confused. Last week in the 2nd half re-ranks, you ranked Hosmer 54th, Berkman 177th, Cespedes 235th, and Rizzo unranked. Now you rank them Berkman, Rizzo, Yoenis, and Hosmer. What happened to cause the change?
AJ Mass (11:38 AM)
This is a very fair question, and I'm not sure I can do justice to it here, but I'll try. They are different exercises. Simply put, if I am comparing four players independent of all other factors, I'm going to look at it differently than if I contrast them with the player pool as a whole. The truth is, the gap between someone ranked #50 versus
Eric Hosmer (KC)
So basically I lost 200 spots in the re-ranks after 4 games?
AJ Mass (11:39 AM)
Didn't say that. Have hopes for you turning it around eventually... do you do it in the next two weeks? Not as sold on that as in the next two months.
Beltran for Gio...one team is weak in pitching, the other is weak in hitting. Too one-sided?
AJ Mass (11:41 AM)
Sounds like a win-win to me. I do value Gio higher, but that doesn't mean I have an issue with the deal.
Honestly, should Eric Hosmer even be owned? His status is based only on one year... his rookie year.
AJ Mass (11:42 AM)
He has earned top 100 hitter value thus far, so I think despite the bad BA, he should be owned.
John Tudor (St Louis)
In a H2H League--would you trade Shields straight up for Anibal Sanchez?
AJ Mass (11:44 AM)
To sum up both storylines for the day, yes.
Eric (Iron City, PA)
OK, I'm pretty out of the loop on football news right now, but according to Conor's early question A Pete is a 2nd round pick now? Is that right?
AJ Mass (11:46 AM)
It's the injury that has us befuddled with Peterson. If we knew he was playing all 16, we'd put him in the 1st Round. If it's 10 games, he's closer to 3rd round. Throw in the off-the-field issues as well and that's why there's some concern.
AJ Mass (The Future)
AJ - you are WRONG!!
AJ Mass (11:47 AM)
On many things, yes. On others, not so much.
In yesterday's chat, Tristan said he'd only start Halladay today in deep, NL only leagues but the daily rankings list him today as the #2 starting pitcher. That's a pretty big gulf. As a Halladay owner, I'm curious to know where you stand. I get the "never start a pitcher when he comes off the DL" but Halladay seems to be a different beast -- not unlike say Sabathia.
AJ Mass (11:49 AM)
I wouldn't start him today either, precisely for the "never start a pitcher off the DL" reason. I just don't trust there not to be a pitch count, even with Doc. That said, the DN spits out ratings based on past performance that don't factor that in. I didn't write up today's, but if Doc is healthy, I can see his probability of success being that high, especially relative to other pitchers. Still doesn't make ME start him.
What does that even mean, top 100 hitter value? He hardly can string together a multi-hit game. I am curious then who the other 99 hitters are. And since Hosmer isn't hitting many HR or stealing many bases, isn't BA the only thing to consider?
AJ Mass (11:51 AM)
Nine home runs have value. Eight SB have value. Some 80 runs + RBI have value. Counting stats don't go away. You can argue with an opinion, but the math puts his value where it puts it.
Thoughts on the Big Brother pool of people? Early prediction for a winner?
AJ Mass (11:52 AM)
I believe the coaches join in at some point, meaning Janelle has best shot at the whole enchilada.
Chooch or Napoli ROS? Thanks!
AJ Mass (11:53 AM)
I'd rather have Chooch.
Tough crowd today.
AJ Mass (11:54 AM)
No, just a passionate one. I get why the questions are being asked, and it's fine that people disagree.
So, then the defense for Hosmer is that while he isn't performing up to expectation, he still has value. Those stats you mentioned seem to be easily obtainable, however, by many, many other players still available on the wire. Hosmer is my vote for biggest hitter bust this year.
AJ Mass (11:57 AM)
Every league's wire is different, so I can't speak to that. It's a function of whether you trust your pre-season evaluation of Hosmer being right or whether you're willing to throw it out completely. If we were right then, ROS should catch up. If we were totally wrong then, the stats he is currently putting up still have value given the category spread. As always, you are free to make your own projections, as none of us can see the future. Isn't that why we all play?
Logan (Hattiesburg, MS)
I get that you guys are held to impossible standards in trying to be consistent in everything you say across all types of rankings, and I'm not dogging you. But can you please elaborate on how ranking guys against an entire player pool and ranking guys against one another for the rest of the season can make such a drastic change in rankings? Thanks.
AJ Mass (12:00 PM)
For one it's the gap. The gap between players in a pool of 1400 players at all positions is far greater than comparing just 4. Also, consider the value of 10 HR in a pool of 1000 HRs versus the value of 10 HR in a pool of 50. They should be and need to be weighted differently. If I have to choose from any player I want to improve my team, it's far different form having to choose only from a select few, and it will change my view.
Hosmer ((Lonely KC))
I hope u all drop me and i blow up the stat charts in 3 weeks so my boy AJ can come back and say i told u so
AJ Mass (12:01 PM)
Will do no such thing regardless. The calls we make at the time with the info we have are the ones we make. Ask me tomorrow and the data will have changed. If you stick to one locked-in worldview, you're doing it wrong. Always be malleable.
AJ Mass (12:02 PM)
And with that, the hour is done. Happy to field any further Q's on Twitter (@ajmass) for those willing to keep the debate going. Until the next time, good luck and may the odds be EVER in your favor.