Chat with Keith Law

Welcome to SportsNation! On Thursday, MLB Insider Keith Law will be here to take your questions on anything baseball related.
Law is the senior baseball analyst for Scouts Inc. Before joining ESPN, Law served as special assistant to the general manager of the Toronto Blue Jays and was a writer for Baseball Prospectus.
Send your questions now and join Law Thursday at 1 p.m. ET!
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Klaw (1:07 PM)
Klawchat, where it's always Snark Week.
Ryno Spirit (Chilandia)
With a defensive WAR of 3.4 and far better defensive stats than Brandon Philips, what's it going to take for voters to award Darwin Barney a gold glove this years?
Klaw (1:08 PM)
Teams that employ the overshift tend to have very screwy results in advanced defensive metrics. Barney's not as good as his numbers would indicate.
jason (muskegon mi)
Michael Wacha...while it is a good sign he is pitching well in his limited role his real test will be how he handles a lineup a 2nd/3rd time through over starter's innnings right?
Klaw (1:09 PM)
I agree. Reports on his velocity are quite misleading, and even a breaking ball can look better when a pitcher knows he can air it out over a ten-batter outing.
Scott (Waltham, MA)
your thoughts on Fangraph's rollout of FDP?
Klaw (1:09 PM)
Great stuff. I like the philosophy behind the new stats and the increased transparency.
David (Bethlehem, PA)
Hypothetical question - If Jake Locker picked baseball over football, is he more like Drew Henson or Matt Holiday with speed? Would love to see an insider article on top 10 amateur baseball prospects playing in the NFL....
Klaw (1:10 PM)
Never saw him play myself, but scouts who did tell me he was a potential star - could do absolutely anything on the field.
Matt (Boston)
Who do you think will be the better player between Webster and De La Rossa, long term? Thanks! Alwyas love your chats.
Klaw (1:13 PM)
De la Rosa. Not that I don't like Webster, but De la Rosa has more upside, at least.
Kevin (Chicago)
Is the AFL geared towards honing skills for better prospects and exposing them to better competition, along with giving some guys a "let's see how he reacts" shot?
Klaw (1:14 PM)
I think its main value is in getting additional reps. A guy like Rendon, who missed four months this year, gets another 100+ ABs out here. I'm just disappointed that the pitching quality is down this year but that's an inevitable consequence of the earlier signing deadline.
Jim (Memphis)
I know its early, but who do you project as next year's top college power bat?
Klaw (1:15 PM)
I did put up a too-early ranking of draft prospects for 2013, and had Austin Wilson as the top college bat, followed by Kris Bryant.
Bret (Toronto)
Thoughts on the Marcus Stroman suspension?
Klaw (1:17 PM)
Much ado about nothing, I think. Hurts his development somewhat, although I think the Jays should just call him up on Friday so that he can burn off ~30 games of it. The drug for which he tested positive sounds like a poor man's amphetamine and is often included in OTC supplements but isn't mentioned on the labels.
Sara (CA)
I like looking at WAR as a tool... but i'm losing faith in it. It bothers me that defense seems to have such a huge impact and yet seems to be so poorly measured. Coming from someone who watches Buster Posey daily, I find it ridiculous that he has negative defensive metrics... How do you account for these things when looking at WAR?
Klaw (1:21 PM)
For catchers, I prefer to back out the defensive metrics entirely - first basemen too. Just set their defense to zero and re-rank. And yes, it's a valid criticism of WAR, or at least of overreliance on it.
Nick (Boston)
Bundy is now at 103.2 IP with a start left at AA, a pretty reasonable amount for a 19 year old. Do you still think the O's messed up limiting his innings early and starting him in the Sally league?
Klaw (1:21 PM)
Yes. Why is that a "reasonable" amount?
David Joseph Smith (Washington)
What's wrong with Danny Hultzen. Does he have "Steve Blass" disease or will he work out of his command problems at Tacoma?
Klaw (1:22 PM)
I saw him a month ago and he was struggling with his landing point, but this is beyond that. I am definitely concerned.
Carlos Sanchez (WS no wait Birmingham no wait Charlotte)
Do you see me as a backup, everyday player or all star?
Klaw (1:23 PM)
Everyday player.
Greg (St. Charles)
Gut feeling - does Shelby Miller get the call at some point this season?
Klaw (1:23 PM)
I think so.
Josh (St. Albans, VT)
Which is more annoying, readers who think you and everyone else at ESPN should work for free or readers who think you hate any team?
Klaw (1:24 PM)
Readers who think I hate their teams are just whining. I have a daughter so I know how to tune that out. Sometimes I whine back at her so she knows how annoying it sounds.
zuke354 (Missouri)
Question about rosters....If a player were added to the roster (EX:Shelby Miller), would this year be considered an option year then since he spent more than 20 days in the minors?
Klaw (1:25 PM)
Only if he was optioned earlier in the year, which means he was already on the 40-man roster and then was assigned to a minor league club.
Nick (Boston)
We know it's pitching that causes arm injuries. Non-pitchers very rarely get their shoulders or elbows opened up. So why isn't it reasonable to err on the side of caution with young pitchers?
Klaw (1:25 PM)
Then clearly the correct answer is to never let young pitchers pitch at all. That way they'll stay healthy forever.
Jason (Nashville, TN)
Assuming the Braves make Medlen part of the rotation next year, do you think he can post a sub-3 era and a 6+ K/9 rate over a full season?
Klaw (1:26 PM)
I'll say ERA between 3 and 3.50.
Ryan (Bracebridge, ON)
Keith, which of the Jays 'Big 3' in Lansing do you think has the highest upside?
Klaw (1:27 PM)
I've always been an Aaron Sanchez guy.
Chris (Boston)
Saw your brief mention that Xander Bogaerts might be able to stay at SS. Was that based on a positive report you got from someone? Something else?
Klaw (1:27 PM)
Two positive reports in the last few weeks. I'd categorize it as "might," not "will." I'm saying there's a chance.
TL (Sacramento)
What is your opinion of the Casey Kelly/Reymond Fuentes/Anthony Rizzo for Adrian Gonzalez trade after the fact?
Klaw (1:28 PM)
Had they kept Rizzo, it would look like a steal for the Padres right now. Kelly alone will still make it look good.
MeisterNJ (Mendham)
Daniel Ruf just old for his level or is there something there?
Klaw (1:28 PM)
Just old for his level.
Ty (Silver Spring, MD)
Keith,Thoughts on Medlen? Is his control good enough to make him a #2? Instinct tells me you would have him as a back of the rotation kind of guy pre-TJ.
Klaw (1:29 PM)
He's shown better offspeed stuff and command post surgery, so he can be an above league-average starter now, whereas yes, I thought he was a back-end starter or even a quality reliever before that.
Nils (Stamford)
Would De La Rosa and Webster still be behind Barnes in an updated Red Sox top 10?
Klaw (1:29 PM)
No. Rubby isn't rookie eligible any more, but I'd rank him first, Webster second, Barnes third.
David (Bethlehem, PA)
Can an argument be made for Chapman as NL CY?
Klaw (1:30 PM)
An extremely poor one, sure.
John (St. Louis)
Now that it's official, what are your thoughts on Starlin Castro's contract extension?
Klaw (1:30 PM)
Same as they were before it was official - great deal for the club.
Sam (New York, NY)
I don't really see it discussed much, but why isn't the Red Sox next move to get rid of Larry Lucchino?
Klaw (1:30 PM)
Apparently he's John Henry's Rasputin.
Tom Tuttle (Tacoma)
Have you seen any of Nimmo yet? Obviously, he's all potential at this point, but he seems like one of those rare platers who has "the look".
Klaw (1:31 PM)
Several times as an amateur. Liked the tools, was concerned about the knee, thought he was less advanced than this as a hitter. The walk rate and overall approach are incredibly positive signs.
Mike (Pleasantville, NY)
Machado has cooled down after his hot first couple of games. Was he rushed, and would you start him in AAA next year or the Majors?
Klaw (1:31 PM)
I thought he was rushed, yes. A few months in AAA wouldn't hurt him.
Erich (CT)
Will Hechevarria ever hit enough to be an above average full time regular? Or is he John McDonald 2.0. I see him as a .240/.290/.350 guy and that kind of stinks.
Klaw (1:32 PM)
I'm not a believer in his bat. I do think he'll be a plus defender and it doesn't take much offense to turn a plus defender into an average regular at short, but I don't think he'll ever really hit.
Matt (DC)
As a Nats how geeked SHOULD I be about the future of Brian Goodwin?
Klaw (1:35 PM)
Great tools - speed, bat speed, glove - but his season was pretty weird, as he spent most of it old for the Sally League, then skipped Potomac (field issue) for AA where he scuffled. I'd like to see him return to AA next year and perform before I buy in completely, but I liked him quite a bit as an amateur.
Rob (DC)
The orioles made Bundy scrap his cutter, based on a belief that it would hinder his 4 seam velocity. Any truth to this theory? Isnt the cutter his best pitch?
Klaw (1:36 PM)
No truth to the theory. Eno Sarris did a good piece for Fangraphs examining the evidence and the general conclusion was that any such basis is weak - you should check it out. Bundy's cutter is his best pitch, and it's bigger than most cutters, more like a slider.
Frank (Illinois)
Thoughts on the Paul Ryan speech?
Klaw (1:37 PM)
I'll pass on that in favor of licking this live third rail over here, which seems like a safer move.
Jonathan (Los Angeles)
Hey Keith, have you ever flirted with vegetarianism? I recently started going veggie 4 days a week, and love how my body has responded to it.
Klaw (1:38 PM)
I did flirt with it, but carnivorism put out on the first date so that was that.
AA (Allentown)
I know sometimes pitchers come back a bit stronger after Tommy John, but what about position players? Just curious. And yes, I'm wondering what to expect from Craford.
Klaw (1:39 PM)
They don't come back stronger, but they come back healthy, compared to performance right before the surgery when they may have been pitching with a damaged ligament.
Mark (NYC)
Keith, is there enough-talent, within the Red-Sox's minor league system, to produce a competitive-team, near and future, without having to purchase 100-million dollar contracts, again? Also, how high is Bradley's potential; is it high-enough, to let Ellsbury walk, after next-season, knowing what Boras will ask for, or, do they need to keep Ellsbury at-all cost? Thank-youThanks
Klaw (1:40 PM)
I think they'll have to supplement from outside the organization, but now they have the financial flexibility to do so again. I'd be inclined to let Ellsbury walk given his health history and Bradley's emergence.
Christian (Washington, DC)
I'm going to be in the Chapel Hill/Durham area in early October. Any suggestions on where I should dine?
Klaw (1:40 PM)
I had a dish post on Durham eats a few weeks ago - had great meals at Rue Cler, Nanatacos, and Dame's Chicken and Waffles.
Free_AEC (NJ)
Is Jonathan Pettibone a stealth prospect? He's almost exactly one year older than Mark Appel.
Klaw (1:42 PM)
He was 3rd on my Phillies prospect rankings in the spring, so I don't think he's a stealth guy. His upside is somewhat limited by lack of stuff, but he can really pitch - good feel, good plan, should be an above-average command/control guy.
Erich (CT)
Harveys been great since being called up, but I didn;t really expect this so far. Convinced he can keep this production up?
Klaw (1:42 PM)
If he maintains this quality of stuff, yes, absolutely. Future ace.
Mike (Reno)
Top Chef Masters - are you going to blog on this week's episode ?
Klaw (1:42 PM)
Yes, after this chat.
Stephen (Twin Cities)
You have been very patient in chats and on twitter repeatedly saying you see Mike Fiers as a 4/5 guy. At what point is it fair to re-evaluate?
Klaw (1:44 PM)
Sounds like you want to believe he's something more than that. I'm sorry, but I don't see it. He's had the benefit of facing some awful lineups too - last two outings came vs PIT and CHC.
Cosmo (Anytown, USA)
I don't have access to a smoker - better option for pulled pork: crock pot or low oven?
Klaw (1:45 PM)
I do it in the crockpot (slow cooker) all the time. It's more like carnitas than pulled pork, but it's still outstanding - the pork ends up poaching in its own fat. And that's a good thing.
George (Los Angeles )
Thoughts on Logan white, think this is finally the year he leaves LA?
Klaw (1:45 PM)
If they miss the playoffs, perhaps he'll end up the GM there.
Rich M (Toronto)
Thoughts on Bryce Brentz? Possible he's ready to debut around the same time as Jackie Bradley?
Klaw (1:46 PM)
Has power but is going to swing and miss a ton. Also needs to improve his defense, which surprises me since he was a CF in college but is below-average in a corner now.
Justin (DC)
If you were really as smart as you think you are, you would have gone on record saying that Kris Medlen should be in the rotation back in May or June.
Klaw (1:47 PM)
I don't know how smart I think I am, but I'm pretty sure I am on record from back then saying just that.
Klaw (1:47 PM)
BTW, how smart do I think I am?
Shawn (FL)
At what point does Bryce Harper need to smarten up and mature? Throwing your helmet down like that, especially as a rookie, is inexcusable.
Klaw (1:47 PM)
This didn't bother me in the least.
Keith (Manchester, CT)
Thanks Keith. J.O. Berrios has looked really good in rookie ball. Do you like him and any chance his ceiling could be as high as 2?
Klaw (1:48 PM)
Short RHP who's going to be a little flyball/HR prone. Love the present stuff, not much projection due to size, don't see him as a future 2.
@Jaypers413 (IL)
Thoughts on the decision to exclude Jorge Soler from both the AFL and winter ball?
Klaw (1:49 PM)
Very disappointed - I think it would have helped him, and obviously it would have been great to see him some more.
Mike (Pleasantville, NY)
I've heard the AFL referred to as a hitters' league, which I don't understand. If teams are sending both pitching and hitting prospects, shouldn't it be more balanced?
Klaw (1:50 PM)
They're sending better hitting prospects than pitching prospects; the ball really flies out here; and some of the parks (especially Surprise) are very homer-friendly.
Sean (New Haven)
Can Soler be added to the AFL at a later date?
Klaw (1:51 PM)
Yes, these rosters will change quite a bit even before AFL Opening Day.
Mike (Chicago)
Chicago being too aggressive with Courtney Hawkins?
Klaw (1:51 PM)
A week in high-A isn't going to hurt him.
Rob (Oakland)
Crick & Blackburn - Should the Giants skip Hi-A Cal League with them?
Klaw (1:52 PM)
San Jose's not a terrible place to pitch. It's at least an option, whereas it wouldn't be one if they were in Lancaster or High Desert.
Fred (Austin, TX)
Since his promotion to HiA, Puig has continued to hit. I suspect he is still advanced beyond this league. Do you think that AFL will give a better read on his true level- probably AA?
Klaw (1:53 PM)
Rancho's also a tremendous place to hit, and I've pointed out that Puig is pretty physically mature. AFL pitching this year might not tell us much more.
Ernie (WY)
Corn on the cob....how do you like yours cooked?
Klaw (1:53 PM)
Husked and grilled till the kernels start to brown, then topped with a little aioli, some crumbled cotija, and some smoked Spanish paprika. First had it at Toro in Boston, now I get it at the Hillside Spot in Ahwatukee.
Shawn (Chicago)
Are Vizcaino and Paniagua the Cubs' top 2 pitching prospects?
Klaw (1:54 PM)
Probably.
Dan (Chicago)
Keith, wondering if you saw the documentary "Ballplayer" detailing the events surrounding the international signings of Miguel Sano and Jean Carlos Batista. Just watched it last night and was curious what you thought?
Klaw (1:54 PM)
I did and wrote it up on the dish too. Excellent film.
Lyle (NM)
When does Mike Zunino get called up to Seattle? April? June? Later?
Klaw (1:55 PM)
Midyear. I like Zunino a ton but he's getting wildly overrated based on a month at a level for which he was too old and now 40 AB in AA.
Bob (Bowie, MD)
If you had your 10 years in, who would you pick for the HOF this year?
Klaw (2:00 PM)
Bonds, Clemens, Raines, Bagwell, Trammell, Edgar, Biggio, Piazza, Schilling ... and one more. Tough call between McGwire, whom I've supported in the past, and Larry Walker, whom I've always seen as just outside of it.
Tom (FL)
What are your thoughts on Jose Fernandez in the Marlins system? Future ace?
Klaw (2:02 PM)
Ace potential, since he has size and two plus pitches. Needs to develop a third pitch, and while he has control I'm not sold on his command. So he has ace ceiling, but a lower probability of getting there than someone like Bundy or Miller.
Todd (Vancouver, WA)
Why does Japanese power not translate to MLB?
Klaw (2:02 PM)
I believe ballparks there are smaller.
Nick (AZ)
Have you seen or heard any reports on Max Fried's stint in the AZL?
Klaw (2:03 PM)
Didn't see him this summer since I got him twice this spring. Heard the velocity was down a little, although given how much he threw this year I'm not shocked.
Dale (KY)
What does a Director of Player Development do, and who is Brandon Hyde?
Klaw (2:04 PM)
Oversees the minor league system, including hiring coaches, implementing development philosophies, and creating and executing player plans. It's a big deal. I've met Brandon but haven't spent a ton of time talking to him.
jono (dc)
didnt you attempt to read the NYT Top 100 fiction books? How'd it go? Any thoughts on a good approach to try the same?
Klaw (2:05 PM)
I've been working my way through TIME magazine's list but still have six books to go.
Adam (Bowling Green, KY)
Thoughts on Josh Sale and 3 of his teammates testing positive for meth and amphetamines last week? It's not real big news around here and I live 5 minutes from the stadium
Klaw (2:05 PM)
Not good news. Probably shouldn't have hired Walter White as the team trainer.
James (Morgantown)
How big of a deal are Taillons first 2 AA starts? Do you think he will be an ace one day?
Klaw (2:06 PM)
More of a big deal that he's using his offspeed stuff more.
Dave (Portland)
In your review of A Naked Singularity I noticed that Wilfred Benitez plays a role in the novel. You should check out his fights vs. Antonio Cervanes, Carlos Palomino, and especially Sugar Ray Leonard.
Klaw (2:06 PM)
I appreciate the suggestion but I have absolutely zero interest in boxing.
Greg (CA)
Why haven't the Giants called up Gary Brown early enough to put on their post season roster? Their OF is very mediocre with Blanco and Pence, and Brown's speed would be a major plus moving forward into the playoffs. Is he really that unready? It would seem he would be easily the 4th best OF on the squad if not the 3rd.
Klaw (2:07 PM)
He can still be added to the postseason roster later, in place of a player on the DL.
Jim (Boston)
What is the best restaurant you have eaten at in the US?
Klaw (2:08 PM)
I think the best single meal I've ever had in the US was at Osteria Mozza in LA this spring. Firefly in Las Vegas never disappoints. I loved Toro in Boston and its spinoff, Coppa. Pizzeria Bianco here in Phoenix is amazing. I'm probably forgetting one or two but those come to mind.
Ben (Charlotte)
so you don't have Miggy C in your AL top 5 MVPs ... do you think a poll of MLB GMs and scouts would come to the same conclusion?
Klaw (2:09 PM)
Don't know. Don't care either.
Detroit Fan (In Dallas)
Good restaurant to take my wife to in Dallas for our 20th anniversary?
Klaw (2:10 PM)
Best place I tried on my last trip was La Duni, upscale Mexican. A reader recommended the French Room at the Adolphus Hotel for fine dining.
Bob (Seattle)
Is there any chance that Matt Moore or Bryce Harper has a better career than Mike Trout (as some prospect lists had it earlier this year)?
Klaw (2:10 PM)
Any chance, yes. Likely, no.
Nancy Silverton (Los Angeles, CA)
Thanks Keith. Now try Pizzeria Mozza.
Klaw (2:11 PM)
I did, this month. It was awesome. Best part was the older couple sitting next to me at the bar - after they finished their pizza (before mine arrived), I asked the wife, "So? Was it fabulous?" and she just shrugged her shoulders and said, "Eh." I'd really like to know what kind of pizza would have made her say "yes."
Harry (LA)
Thoughts on Maronde's callup? Too early?
Klaw (2:12 PM)
He can help out of the pen.
Jason (Nashville, TN)
Are you coming back to Nashville for the Winter Meetings this year? A lot of great restaurants, new and old, are getting national attention lately.
Klaw (2:12 PM)
Yes. I'm taking suggestions and I've already got my eye on one fine-dining spot that showed up in one of the cooking mags I get.
Mickey (Dallas)
Thoughts on Max Kepler - this season a big step forward for a serious prospect or this season should be tempered because he is an Appy league repeater
Klaw (2:13 PM)
Big step forward. I think he can be an above-average regular.
Ryan (Lunch)
What's the best thing to get at Toro?
Klaw (2:14 PM)
The boquerones and the churros were my two favorite items. Most people love the "Kobe" beef sliders.
Brandt (PA)
What's your take on the Cole promotion? Is there a legit chance he's in the Pirates rotation on opening day next year?
Klaw (2:15 PM)
I think there's a chance but more likely he comes up in May even if they think he's ready in April.
Joe (DC)
Does a team like the Orioles defying the odds all season bug you or delight you?
Klaw (2:16 PM)
Neither. I do want to see the best teams in the playoffs, though, because I believe that's better for the sport as a whole, and I don't see the Orioles as one of the five best teams in the AL or ten best in baseball.
James (WV)
Do you think the Pirates will miss Robbie Grossman...he is seriously under rated, but really doesn't do anything great.. Does his plate discipline give him a chance to be an above average regular?
Klaw (2:17 PM)
I think that's a good description - no plus tools, but does a lot of things well enough, with a good approach that doesn't have Jaff Deckeresque passivity.
alex (tacoma, wa)
it seems that you don't believe steroids impact player performance much. What factor(s) do you think legitimately fueled the power numbers of the "steroid era"?
Klaw (2:18 PM)
I think it's more fair to say that I think we don't have a good handle on how much they impacted performance. I also think the overnight rise in offensive levels from 1992 to 1993 doesn't fit the narrative of a rise in steroid use, which would likely have resulted in a more gradual increase in offensive levels.
Ben (St. Paul)
You think there's any chance Clemens' comeback is to delay his HOF clock because he's concerned he's not a first ballot if the vote's today?
Klaw (2:19 PM)
Assuming he does play in the majors this year, then yes, I think there's a good chance of that.
James (WV)
Do you think the Pirates would be wise to trade Hanrahan this offseason? Seems like it would be a good sell high candidate...esp with his salary probably jumping to around 7 mil...NH seems to like to build the bullpen on the fly and has done a pretty good job...What kind of return is fair for Joel?
Klaw (2:20 PM)
I'd absolutely try to move him, since closer performance is so unpredictable anyway. One solid prospect, a potential everyday guy or mid-rotation starter, would be fair.
Klaw (2:21 PM)
That's all for this week. I'm taking a short vacation next weekend, starting Thursday, so I won't be chatting next week. Thanks for all the questions.
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