Fantasy NBA with Tom Carpenter
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Tom Carpenter (10:59 AM)
Hey everyone! Ready for another great session of rappin' fantasy hoops. Let's get right down to biz ...
Who wins this trade MKG & Waiters for Joe Johnson
Tom Carpenter (11:02 AM)
Mike, I like MKG for his hustle potential and Waiters (see this morning's fantasy hoops blog) for his upside in the second half of the season. But JJ clearly is the best player from this group, and in a 2-1 trade I will almost always take the 1, especially if the 1 is the best player in the deal. Adam Stanco and I discussed JJ and the Nets in today's Fantasy Focus Podcast (coming out this afternoon), and I really believe JJ is going to be a great play ROS, especially as a 3-point threat.
Ben (New York)
Does Amir Johnson hold his value once the the other Raptors bigs come back?
Tom Carpenter (11:05 AM)
Adam and I also spent some time talking about Amir in the podcast. When he was with the Pistons, there was a "free Amir" campaign to get him off the bench, but every time I saw him actually play he underwhelmed. That hasn't changed in Toronto, where he has had hot stretches like right now only to turn back into the proverbial pumpkin. Ride him while he's hot and cranking out nice steals and blocks, but Ed Davis is the long-term play to have once Bargs and Valanciunas are back.
Ben (New York)
I know a lot of people were high on Goran Dragic in fantasy this year, but has he reached bust status? Can he pick it up?
Tom Carpenter (11:09 AM)
I guess he is a bust if your expectations were extremely high, but he's doing about what I expected as a decent PG on a team that has little in the way of scorers who can put his passes through the rim. Low teen scoring, 6-plus dimes a steal and a three are pretty decent numbers in that situation. He could improve, but that may require the Suns to make a trade-deadline move that nets a legit scoring force.
I got offered anthony davis, jennings, and jack for my aldridge parsons and drummond, is this a good trade? Do you think Anthony davis will turn it around?
Tom Carpenter (11:11 AM)
This looks pretty fair for both teams, Cooper, especially if the team taking on Davis and Jennings is low in the standings and looking to make a push and if the team taking Aldridge and Drummond is looking for security going forward. I like Jennings a lot ROS now that Skiles is off his back and I expect a very nice finish to the season for Davis. Of course, I can't stop talking about Drummond, so I like both sides of this deal.
Trade Cousins for Randolph and Gay?
Tom Carpenter (11:14 AM)
I love big-time trades like that. As I said before, I prefer the 1 side of a 2-1 deal most of the time, but you can make a legit case for acquiring ZBo and Gay, because you get two guys who can be studs for one stud -- plus you can dump Cousins' risk factor (attitude) and his poor FG%. Go for it.
gay/shved for dragic/lillard. who wins?
Tom Carpenter (11:15 AM)
Looks pretty even overall, Brian. I would lean toward the Lillard side because he's playing lights out and Dragic is better than Shved, but there is the risk of a rookie wall for Lillard, who is being worked awfully hard early on.
are you worried about cp's injury where it ends up like varajao's?
Tom Carpenter (11:17 AM)
Not really, unless the Clips are hiding info. As it stands now, CP3 just has a bruised kneecap, so they are being cautious so it does't develop into something long term. Roll with Eric Bledsoe as a stopgap filler for CP3 and hope Paul is ready for next week when the Clippers play five games.
In the fantasy basketball blog today you advise to sell high on mayo. What do you consider to be selling high?
Tom Carpenter (11:20 AM)
Well, the answer to that question depends mostly on the other people in your league, Dan. If you're in a roto league, looks at your standings and try to find a team or two that needs 3s, steals, maybe some dimes or FG% from a guard spot. Then see what those teams have that pairs up well with Mayo and will help your needs. The bottom line is that you must trade players when they are playing well to max that value.
A. Bargani will regain his starting position back soon?
Tom Carpenter (11:24 AM)
That's debatable, Sal. Coach Dwane Casey said recently that Ed Davis would pretty much have to tank it to not keep his starting job. If he holds true to that, then either Bargs or Valanciunas will have to come off the bench in the frontcourt. You can make a case either way, but regardless, I think Davis' advancement is going to eat into the production of both Bargnani and Valacniunas ROS. Bargs likely is still at least a couple of weeks away from playing still.
who wins in this trade, marc gasol and klay for conley and josh smith?
Tom Carpenter (11:28 AM)
One thing I'll note first, Jeff, is that "winning" a trade means little -- although I've always wondered what it would be like to form a competition where you made up trades to see who posted the best numbers in each trade ROS. The bottom line with trades isn't who won the trade, but whether it makes your team better. This one presumably would be a wash, as both teams are trading similar talent for different stats. If the guy getting Conley and Smoove needs hustle stats, then he's improved his team. If the guy getting Gasol and Klay is set on hustle stats and needs 3s, then his team will be better too. Win-Win.
Ben (New York)
Who is a better injured stash Rose or Granger?
Tom Carpenter (11:31 AM)
Nothing wrong with adding Granger, Ben, but I am not expecting a whole lot from him. His best days have long-since passed and Paul George is the man now in Indy. I would take Rose and expect him to give you some pretty decent production soon after the All-Star break.
What does ROS mean?
Tom Carpenter (11:31 AM)
Rest of season ...
do you think ilyasova will bust out soon? i was hoping for one of his big lines after skiles was fired and he hasn't done much since.
Tom Carpenter (11:35 AM)
True, Nate, we haven't seen that bust-out game yet, but I think it's going to come. The important things to remember -- besides Skiles' wacky rotations being gone -- are that he has a contract that should force his way into big minutes, he has started the past four games, and he has taken double-digit shots in three of his past four games. I would hold onto him and give him another couple of weeks to get rolling. Go take a look at those post-All-Star stats from last season and expect something similar this time around too.
vic (no cal)
Batum for DWade. On its surface, sounds unfair - but Batum is outperforming the bigger name. Do I dare?
Tom Carpenter (11:39 AM)
I would rather have Batum than Wade. Batum is stepping into his prime and has basically no risk of his game tanking -- in other words he is all upside. Wade is aging, prone to injury and already seeing his minutes and role limited as the Heat focus on keeping him energized for the postseason. If you are trading Wade for Batum on Wade's name value, kudos. It's a nice move.
Are you worried about Melo regressing? I am in a keeper league and don't know what to do with him. I would love to move him for Kyrie or Harden. But what about say Paul George or Marc Gasol or Cousins?
Tom Carpenter (11:43 AM)
I think Melo can maintain this pace ROS and maybe even beyond, but as far as maximizing trade value, you should deal him away sooner than later. He certainly can't post bigger stats than he is right now, so his trade value is maxed. I would jump on Kyrie, give serious though to Harden. The other three, I would prefer to use in a multiplayer deal, where you deal Melo and an OK player for one of those guys plus another really good player.
Amir has been giving quality points and rebs this month. Not just a source for steals and blocks... also his FG% is solid. Plus, he's a warrior, playing with 2 sprained ankles!
Tom Carpenter (11:47 AM)
Hey, I wasn't knocking Amir, so much as being a realist. So far overall this season, he is posting the same mediocre stats we see from him every year ... stats that you can match off the waiver wire at most any time. He can post nice numbers for short stretches, but not the long term. And I don't play in any leagues that use the "warrior" stat. Amir is a nice option in deep leagues, though, particularly because he is a big man who can swipe and block balls.
speaking of stashes, who would you stash in the IR? -- bynum or Verajao?
Tom Carpenter (11:48 AM)
I really hold no expectations for Bynum, but I would stash him over Varejao to see if he really does return around the break.
Do you expect Ray Felton to continue his solid play when he returns?
Tom Carpenter (11:50 AM)
I guess that answer isn't in the Friendly Helping Book, eh, Jimmy? I do expect Felton to get right back to where he was statistically. He makes for a good buy-low guy if his current owner is getting impatient, at least if you can handle his rough FG%.
Ben (New York)
Please rank these PGs for ROS: Wall, Calderon, Jennings, Dragic and Lillard. Thanks!
Tom Carpenter (11:52 AM)
Lillard, Jennings, Wall, Calderon (esp in leagues that count turnovers), Dragic.
Best all round big man to own going forward in cat 9 h2h: Splitter,Koufos,Hawes,Seraphin,Sullinger or H.Barnes? Thanks
Tom Carpenter (11:54 AM)
I remain intrigued by Seraphin, but he won't bust out until/unless he gets big minutes. I want Harrison Barnes. I really love how he's looked of late, and most importantly, coach Mark Jackson is actually pushing him to be more aggressive. That's the blessing you want to hear for a rookie who has a ton of fantasy upside as an all-around stats stuffer.
Quick picks, who would you rather have down the stretch this season? Felton or Collison, Granger or Affalo, Hibbert or Bynum. Go!
Tom Carpenter (11:56 AM)
I'm starting to believe more in Collison at this point and would probably take him over Felton. Afflalo over Granger and Hibbert over Bynum ... just too much waiting on those injured guys at this time.
um, this may be a vague question, but who are some players who are owned less than 50% that should be in most/all leagues? thanks
Tom Carpenter (11:59 AM)
Ed Davis, Harrison Barnes, Kawhi Leonard all have quality long-term upside, while guys like the aforementioned Amir Johnson, Randy Foye and Eric Bledsoe have good short-term value.
With Ginobli out what do you think about Kawhi Leonard, would you drop matt barnes for kawhi?
Tom Carpenter (12:02 PM)
This is one of those situations where what we fantasy folks want just isn't likely to happen. At any point, Pops could just give the signal to turn Kawhi loose and he would explode as a fantasy option. Instead, they have a bunch of swingmen on their roster, even with Manu out, and Pops just picks the flavor of the day each game -- that means none of them will have a great shot at being a reliable play. Matt Barnes on the other hand has a locked in role and is churning out nice stats ... I'd stick with Barnes unless Pops suddenly decides to take the governor off Leonard.
Tom Carpenter (12:04 PM)
Boy, time really does fly when you're having fun ... and this chat session with all of you is always one of the highlights of my work week. I look forward to seeing all of you back here again next week, same time, same place ...
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