Adam Rubin

  (12:01 PM)

Thanks for joining me. Let's get started ...

Auggie (New York)

What happens if Lucas Duda doesn't get it together this year? Back to the minors? Obviously, there are contingency plans in terms of who steps in. But are there larger contingency plans in terms of what we do with him? Would a trade be possible, or is he too undesirable?

Adam Rubin

  (12:02 PM)

This is a make-or-break year, to a certain extent, for Lucas Duda. He's not young anymore. The problem is that you need a viable piece to outperform him. That does not exist within the system in the upper levels, so it would be contingent upon free agency in 2014.

Jim (NY)

You reported via TC that Shawn Marcum gets a cortisone shot in his shoulder every spring. Is this normal for pitchers? Does it become less of a problem for Marcum during season past?

Adam Rubin

  (12:03 PM)

Just talked to Marcum. He said he had it the past three springs. This time, it sounded like he had to twist the trainers' arms to get the cortisone shot. He said he had some tightness, but that's common for him in spring. He pledged he'll only miss the one Grapefruit League turn. We'll see.

Hector (NYC)

Can we get an update on Marlon Byrd's performance? Haven't heard a ton of buzz about him since he did so well the first couple weeks that he basically locked down his roster spot.

Adam Rubin

  (12:03 PM)

Good enough to be the starting right fielder.

dan (ny)

why is hawkins being given a job in the pen? hes barely pitched.

Adam Rubin

  (12:04 PM)

He and Scott Atchison were signed because of the back of their baseball cards, so to speak. Track records.

Mack (NYC)

Are you of the belief that the Mets should send D'Arnaud to minor league camp ASAP so that they don't lose the push-back of his years of team control if he gets injured and has to be on the Major League DL?

Adam Rubin

  (12:04 PM)

There's a balance between him absorbing info and being around major league staff vs. that injury risk. I suppose I'm OK with it. I mean, what are the odds he gets injured? (Ducking.)

Ed (Queens)

About when can we expect your win prediction for the team and your analysis? You do a great job covering the Mets, Adam!

Adam Rubin

  (12:05 PM)

Thanks. I'll give the prediction a day or two before Opening Day, as the team is ready to break camp. It's not going to be too positive.

Daniel (Woodside, NY)

Assuming Murphy is out to start the season and Wright is healthy, would outfield look like LF-Duda, CF-Cowgill, RF-Byrd with Valdespin at 2B?

Adam Rubin

  (12:06 PM)

If Murphy is on the DL and Wright is healthy, Turner is the second baseman. That means your five oufielders are Lucas Duda, Jordany Valdespin, Collin Cowgill, Marlon Byrd and Mike Baxter. I would say Baxter is the most likely to be primarily a pinch hitter. And Duda and Byrd are the most likely to start more often than straight platoons.

GJ Silverman (Poughkeepsie)

Adam, assuming Valdespin is a regular, where do you see his most likely defensive deployment?

Adam Rubin

  (12:07 PM)

If Murphy is healthy, it's going to be in the outfield. Probably center field.

Ray (New York)

Are all of these Spring Training pitching injuries just coincidence/a bad year? Or is there something deeper wrong with the system? Should the Mets look to add a sort of pitching health/development coach like the Rockies (I think) did a week or two ago?

Adam Rubin

  (12:07 PM)

I'm sure they're asking this question. They've had three strength and conditioning coordinators now in the past five seasons, so I don't think you can assign it to that.

Frank (New Orleans)

Is 82-85 wins a reasonable goal for the Mets this year?

Adam Rubin

  (12:08 PM)

Goal? Sure. Achievable? Doubt it.

Frank (New Orleans)

With spring training coming to an end what position battles are still being played out?

Adam Rubin

  (12:08 PM)

They may have made up their mind and not shared it yet, but I suppose Feliciano vs. Carson vs. Rice and Quintanilla vs. Hicks (though the latter is clear for Q in my mind). I suppose Burke vs. Familia, too, for the last bullpen spot.

David (New York)

Is there a chance we see any Long Island guys as high as AAA this season?

Adam Rubin

  (12:10 PM)

Steve Matz? No way. He'd aim for Savannah, off the top of my head. John Micone from Half Hollow Hills is not at that level yet. I don't know what the plans are for Craig Hansen.

David Gustafson (Minneapolis)

If Murphy is down for longer than anticipated, does Flores come up to play second base?

Adam Rubin

  (12:10 PM)

No. Turner.

Paul (Manhattan)

Hi Adam, great work as usual. There have been some rumors over the past week that Sandy is still looking to upgrade the outfield through a trade. What have you heard? Also, how do scouts feel about Valdespin in CF? He's got a good bat, but that can't be a viable medium or long-term solution can it?

Adam Rubin

  (12:10 PM)

Haven't heard about any outfield trades in the works. Valdespin is an athlete, but we've seen plenty of infielders in the outfield with the Mets. Not a fan of it in general.

justin (florida)

If Marcum isn't ready is there any chance wheeler fills in. Or would it be laffey

Adam Rubin

  (12:10 PM)

Laffey, it would seem.

JB (Manhattan)

Are you optimistic about den Dekker ever developing into a starting CF-leadoff type? He seems to have the tools, if he can get better at the plate. Is the Mets administration optimistic about/hoping for this?

Adam Rubin

  (12:11 PM)

Leadoff? He needs to make more contact and has power. I hope he becomes an everyday player, but it really is up to him to improve his discipline and make more contact at the plate.

Harry (Babylon, NY)

Hi Adam - you listed Reese Havens as a possiblilty to be cut from the 40 man roster. Does the front office still feel he can be a productive major league player or has his yearly injury proneness hurt his status?

Adam Rubin

  (12:12 PM)

It's pretty much a foregone conclusion that Reese ends up on waivers. I bet he goes unclaimed. The Mets need 4-5 40-man roster spots. Reese would be at the top of that list. I think his body has betrayed him and I'm not sure at this point he'll be able to reverse that, as well as he hit in the minors until last year.

dan (ny)

how safe is turner, because lutz ability to play first third and LF, and be that power bat off the bench certainly has more value than turner. youve reported some things on turner, whats the update in light of david wrights and murphy injury and what happens if they come back ??

Adam Rubin

  (12:13 PM)

I thought there was a very good chance early that Turner was in trouble, but not with the Wright and Murphy injuries. TC doesn't have a ton of sway, but he really wants him.

travis ( new york )

your opening day lineup

Adam Rubin

  (12:14 PM)

Tough. It's probably going to be a LH, Clayton Richard, so my guess:Collin Cowgill, cfJustin Turner, 2bDavid Wright, 3bIke Davis, 1bMarlon Byrd, rfLucas Duda, lfJohn Buck, cRuben Tejada, ssJon Niese, lhp

Jay (Manhattan)

Do you see the Yankees being a little less Yankee-ish this year as in any way benefiting the Mets? Aka in that they won't be QUITE as overshadowed as they would be by a firing-on-all-cylinders NYY team? Will that kick over some attendance towards Flushing, do you think?

Adam Rubin

  (12:14 PM)

I just think there's going to be a general anger level in New York. I don't think the Yankees' projected woes will lessen the Mets fans' pain.

Ray (Dallas)

Adam, I know Q is in the lineup today at second base but why doesn't TC consider Q @ second or third ?

Adam Rubin

  (12:15 PM)

TC's first priority is Turner. Feels he's hit at major league level. And the second priority is Valdespin.

Will (New York, NY)

also, two thing:what are the chances Den Dekker makes the team (especially given the injuries)? and if he does, will he start? I feel like it makes no sense to have Den Dekker riding pine. If he's up, he should play...

Adam Rubin

  (12:16 PM)

He's not making the team. He'd strike out 220 times this season as a starter. They have 3 lefty outfielders -- Duda, Valdespin and Baxter. And they don't have 40-man roster spots. (He's not on now.)

Michael (Staten Island, NY)

The Mets were solid in the first half of last season. Why should we not expect the same output and cohesion this time around?

Adam Rubin

  (12:16 PM)

Because they're due for a first half like they've been having second halves.

Ray (Dallas)

Adam, What are your thought on Tejada's performance this spring? If he doesn't shape up do you anticipate a trade?

Adam Rubin

  (12:17 PM)

He's the shortstop. His spring training batting numbers have been abysmal. But he has a track record at the major league level now. You can't go crazy over spring-training performance once guys have track records.

Kevin (New York, NY)

Any chance the Mets bring up dek Dekker over Baxter? Neither one is hitting right now, but obviously den Dekker is a better defensive outfielder and has more pop. Baxter is hitting .152 and den Dekker is hitting just over .200

Adam Rubin

  (12:17 PM)

Zero chance. Baxter walked six times in one game last year at San Diego. That will earn him a lifetime Moneyball roster spot.

Jim (NY)

One of my running projects is looking for Paul O'Neill type players - physically large prospects expected to hit for a lot of power who end up later on as high BA/OB guys with lower case power. Could Lucas Duda be that kind of player, better than 280, low 20's HR? He's kind of an armsy hitter.

Adam Rubin

  (12:17 PM)

I highly doubt it.

Joe (NY)

Why don't the Mets just let Zack Wheeler start the year with the team. No Santana No Marcum

Adam Rubin

  (12:18 PM)

The Mets actually have been good about introducing players under Alderson when they're ready, not succumbing to the temptation because of major league needs.

Jim (NY)

Collin Cowgill has showed a surprising amount of power in the minors - doubles and HR - for a small guy. Does the ball jump off his bat on HR's, are they gap doubles v running doubles. Could he win the everyday leadoff spot outright

Adam Rubin

  (12:18 PM)

Not about him, but I'd watch myself with spring-training homers. The wind often blows out and carries balls.

Harry (Babylon, NY)

Adam - is it fair to view this year similar to the 1983 season? I see very similar types of teams including the manager.

Adam Rubin

  (12:19 PM)

My bosses actually want me to write about that. I need to do a little studying.

Jim (Fairfield)

Hey Adam, I get what Sandy and Co are trying to do. Having a steady pipeline of home grown pitching is smart. But what I don't get is why it seems that developing these guys while maintaining a competitive Major League team are mutually exclusive? It seems to me you should be able to do both simultaneously.

Adam Rubin

  (12:19 PM)

I agree to an extent, although tanking things does have benefit if you look what the Nats did in getting No. 1 overall picks (Strasburg and Harper).

Will (New York, NY)

Hey Adam,Most of these injuries seem to be pulls and tweaks from coming into camp out of shape. Johan aside, I don't see anything that has potential to keep a guy out for extended time... am I right not to worry too much about the injuries to Wright, Murph, Turner, Marcum, and Kirk?

Adam Rubin

  (12:20 PM)

I don't think these are out-of-shape injuries. The side-muscle injuries, which are an epidemic, is because guys are too bulked up and work out too much on their core in the offseason.

Adam Rubin

  (12:20 PM)

Anyway, thanks for joining me.