ESPN

David Schoenfield

  (1:03 PM)

Let's talk October baseball ...

RAYGORDN REID (PONTE VEDRA FLA 32082)

QESTION TO DAVID SCHOENFIELD AT 1.25 PM TONIGHT REDS OR PIRATES

David Schoenfield

  (1:07 PM)

I'm going Pirates for three reasons: (1) Like Liriano against Choo/Votto/Bruce. (2) Not exactly sure what Cueto will bring; I know he had good results in his two starts since coming back, but those were against the Astros and Mets. (3) Home field. One advantage there: Dusty will "wait" use Chapman until he has a lead, whereas Hurdle will use Melancon/Grilli in a tie game. So, good chance Chapman never even gets in the game.

zack (stl)

Who should the Indians have more confidence in going forward: Kazmir or Ubaldo?

David Schoenfield

  (1:07 PM)

Jimenez. Although ... if Cleveland does get by Tampa, Red Sox hit right-handers much better, so Kazmir will be a key starter in that series.

Steve (Orlando,Fl)

How significant is it that Cabrera joins Hornsby, Lajoie,and Wagner to ever be the only RH hitters in history to win at least 3 batting titles in a row?

David Schoenfield

  (1:08 PM)

Well, considering when those guys played, it's even more impressive to do it now.

Brian (Fort Wayne)

If you're Leyland, do you start Fister over Porcello? Porcello has been pitching well.

David Schoenfield

  (1:10 PM)

Three good starts at the end, two against the White Sox. Don't think that would be enough to sway me. Of course, he *could* go Verlander, Scherzer, Sanchez, Verlander (three days rest), Scherzer (full rest) since there are two off days, but managers are reluctant to start anyone on short rest.

Honus (Carnegie)

Pirates fan who is happy/surprised by your World Series pick, considering how down all of us were on the team's post-season chances last week. Why do you think they'll go all the way?

David Schoenfield

  (1:11 PM)

Well, I'll be honest: Voting a little bit with my heart there (Pirates over A's). That said, the postseason IS a crapshoot and any team can win. Pirates can pitch and they play defense. Reminds me in some of ways of how the Giants were constructed last year.

Will B (Bozeman)

The pirates DS? really? they are not even going to make it past game 4 of the NLDS against the cards, sorry to burst your bubble!

Tom (Dallas, TX)

I read the article 'Don't blame Washington', how does he not shoulder most if not all of the blame when they had 11 one run losses (18 overall this season) games after the all star break? His use of the bullpen in the last month was atrocious (see Feliz in the KC game, and Ortiz in the Tampa 12 inning game).

David Schoenfield

  (1:14 PM)

Not sure what article you're referring to. Felix in the KC game WAS awful, as was Ortiz. Look, I'm not going to defend Washington, but keep in mind: two starts from Matt Harrison, no Colby Lewis, Ogando missed half the year. Not all his fault.

Brian (Fort Wayne)

David- please no Trout/Cabrera MVP questions today...

David Schoenfield

  (1:14 PM)

Agreed!

Tarek (NYC)

How said is it that I'm spending my 40th birthday chatting with you! You're my boy blue, you're my boy!

David Schoenfield

  (1:15 PM)

I guess you survived Vegas!

James (KC)

My wife and I are planning a baseball trip next year to see a couple of ballparks, what are your top 5? She is the baseball nut.

David Schoenfield

  (1:15 PM)

Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Fenway, Wrigley, Baltimore.

Bren (Pearl River, NY)

True or False? One could easily make the case that Miguel Cabrera's Triple Crown winning season was the worst of his last four?

David Schoenfield

  (1:17 PM)

Lowest OPS, at least. By Baseball-Reference WAR, 2010 is the lowest. You know ... he actually ended up with a lower WAR this year than last, 7.3 to 7.2, due to worse defensive metrics.

rick (exton, pa)

Would Cespedes be a good trade candidate for Phillies? Power bat in rf and he is a fa in two yrs whom A's cant keep. Who says no...Biddle, Asche, and Ruf for Cespedes

David Schoenfield

  (1:19 PM)

I don't think the Phillies do that considering Cespedes didn't have that good of a year -- .294 OBP. Although I'm not sure Ruben Amaro pays attention to OBP. More likely, Phillies go after one of the free agent outfielders -- Choo, Ellsbury.

Ted (Wilmington)

When Wash spoke of having a short leash with Perez, who knew that the moment of truth would have been in the 3rd inning, with Longo at the plate?

David Schoenfield

  (1:20 PM)

Yeah, can't really fault Wash for not yanking Perez there. Although with two outs, runner on first, Delmon Young on deck, Perez probably should have been a little more careful and not give Longoria a hittable fastball.

Derek (work) [via mobile]

Ruben Amaro says he's finally going to hire an analytical department! What took 10 years?

David Schoenfield

  (1:20 PM)

Go Phillies!

Eddie (Fresno)

Ron Washington has to be fired, doesn't he? The Rangers are at the point where the success they've had has become Wash's curse, since he can't get them the title they've come so close to. A new face might be what the team needs to achieve more.

David Schoenfield

  (1:22 PM)

Probably. Similar to the Red Sox hiring Francona in 2004. You knew Grady Little had to go, even if he wasn't a bad manager. Just gets to the point where there's a cloud over the manager's head.

zack (stl)

How bad was that call on Delmon's flyball? Also, would it be kind of insane/awesome if Delmon wins back to back ALCS mvp's?

David Schoenfield

  (1:23 PM)

As I tweeted last night: Delmon Young playing in big games in October. Just like Ruben Amaro thought he would!

Tarek (NYC)

Survived is the correct way to phrase it! Happy your M's ended in the top 10 worst teams. Do you think they go after Ellsbury or Pence?

David Schoenfield

  (1:23 PM)

Pence is re-signing with the Giants. M's probably pursue Ellsbury and Choo, hoping to land one. Of course, they need both!

Ken (Palo Alto)

Oakland over Detroit in 5. I know Detroit has more thunder and a deeper rotation, but Oakland is so much more athletic. Detroit has statues at the corners and Peralta in left? You've got to be kidding.

David Schoenfield

  (1:24 PM)

I have A's winning as well. Bottom line: Miggy has two extra-base hits in September. They have averaged more than five runs per game in July and August and under four in September. Not the same offense right now we saw all summer.

Mike (San Diego)

OK, fine, no Cabrera/Trout talk. Let's say there were two guys where one was REALLY REALLY good at one thing and not that great at the rest of the stuff he does and another guy who does everything at a very high level. Who would be considered more valuable. Let's call the first guy Schmiguel Schmabrera and the second guy Schmike Schmout.

Morris (Pgh, PA)

Who's your LVP, if you judge the same way most writers judge MVP candidates (i.e. in a team context)? I'd go with Jeff Francoeur in the AL: 50 wRC+ and poor defense/baserunning in a corner position. Quite possibly cost the Royals a WC berth. They were under .500 when they DFAed him and immediately went on a tear. In the NL, probably Jeff Francoeur. 19 wRC and poor defense/baserunning in a corner outfield position. The Giants were right in the mix in the NL West when they added him and immediately fell apart. After SF cut him they finished >500 the rest of the way.

David Schoenfield

  (1:27 PM)

Nice. Hard to disagree with that evaluation. Wade Davis was awful for the Royals as well. Not sure why they waited so long to take him out of the rotation. Or Mike Morse. Terrible for the Mariners and then useless for the Orioles. But my vote goes to Joe Blanton. 2-14, 6.04 ERA, 29 HRs in 132 IP. Ouch.

JP (Columbus, OH)

Dave, I'm a little worried my Reds are about to fall on some hard times in the next year or two. With Choo leaving, the Reds will be left with Votto as pretty much the only hitter in the entire lineup to worry about. Bruce will get his 30 and 100, but make lots of outs in the process. And the rest of the lineup - meh. The pitching will keep them in games, but I'm not sure they make it back to the playoffs next year. What say you?

David Schoenfield

  (1:30 PM)

But Billy Hamilton! No, I agree with your assessment. And don't underestimate losing Arroyo. He's been a 200-inning workhorse. We don't yet know if Cingrani can handle that kind of workload. As for next year, too early to say until we see what happens in the offseason. But Braves, Cards and Pirates all have a young nucleus, and if the Nationals bounce back, that will make it tough for the Reds.

Ken (Palo Alto)

Baseball pundits have way underestimated the Tribe and way overestimated the Tigers this year. The Tigers won exactly one more game than the Tribe. And while they did beat the Indians up in head-to-head, they went 78-65 against everybody else to the Tribes 88-55 against everybody else. So I don't know why so much is expected of the Tigers and so little of the Tribe.

David Schoenfield

  (1:31 PM)

Well, the Tigers did have a run differential almost 100 runs better, which speaks on some level to the strengths of the teams.

Mike (San Diego)

As a Cardinals fan, who should I be rooting for tonight? I understand the baseball differences, but I'm talking the important non-baseball stuff. On one hand, I like the Pirates more than the Reds, but if Pittsburgh wins, I'm going to be the only Cardinals fan in town. Is it worth being rooted against to see the Reds get knocked out?

David Schoenfield

  (1:33 PM)

Cards maybe match up a little better against the Pirates? I'm thinking of St. Louis' all-righty rotation facing Choo/Votto/Bruce. But it's probably a coin flip.

David Schoenfield

  (1:34 PM)

Cards went 11-8 against the Reds, 9-10 against the Pirates. Plus, Mat Latos has that bone chip in his elbow that's been bothering him ... so maybe you would rather face the Reds.

Alex (OH)

Re: Ken in Palo Alto, doesn't the Indians 4-15 record against the Tigers speak for itself?

Aaron (N Kentucky)

The Reds have nothing to worry about. The best manager in baseball and the best first baseman plus a top notch rotation and bullpen. They'll stomp the Cardinals in the division by 20 wins next year.

David (Chapel Hill)

I agree with the old-school writers who think "Valuable" is about more than percentage stats, and I also agree with the new-school folks who point out that RBIs are often merely a product of opportunity. My solution? WPA. Most under-loved stat out there. A WPA-based MVP ballot would look like this: AL: Davis, Cabrera, Cano, Trout, Holland; NL: Goldschmidt, Freeman, Choo, Kershaw, McCutchen.

David Schoenfield

  (1:38 PM)

That's Greg Holland, not Derek Holland. I like WPA, although it's biased towards players whose teams play in more close games. I do think it's reasonable to use WPA to suggest Cabrera has been more valuable than Trout (who hit his best in blowouts), but if you do that, than you have to say Davis has maybe been more valuable than Cabrera.

Jeremy (DC)

If the Rangers came back and tied it up and then won after the refs blowing that "catch" on Delmon Young's drive, how bad would the fallout be?

David Schoenfield

  (1:38 PM)

Was talking about that with Karabell at lunch. We still have seven series for the umps to blow a game.

Drew (Mpls)

Why in the world do you bring back a manager who just lost 291 games over the last 3 years? PLUS inviting back the whole coaching staff? Rick Anderson has had only 1 pitcher who didn't get worse the more time they spent under his tutelage (Johan). I'm excited for nothing. Long live Ray Miller.

David Schoenfield

  (1:41 PM)

Pretty amazing ... Twins have had two managers since 1987. Never quite got the Gardenhire love. Always had problems building a good lineup. His teams usually collapsed in the playoffs. Not saying he's a bad manager. How about trading Washington for Gardy?

Reynolds (St Louis)

So is Pence's deal the floor for Choo signing with the Cubz?

David Schoenfield

  (1:41 PM)

Choo is better and the same age, so I'd say yes.

Matt (Los Angeles)

David, I know it's playoff time and most questions will be centered around that, but I find myself fascinated by a big picture issue: the prospective Mike Trout contract. I know it's premature for such talk, but he's just put up the most impressive 2-season stretch for a player his age in the history of the game. That's a lot of history. It's not absurd to think we're looking at one of the 5-10 greatest players ever with another 10+ years at the top of his game. So how do you see this eventually playing out? If you're advising Trout, do you negotiate a big deal in the near future with the Angels to lock up that security or do you take him all the way to free agency and let the Dodgers roll a few Brinks trucks down the I-5? If you're the Angels, what type of deal would you offer now to lock him up long-term and do you think it would be enough? Thanks for the time!

David Schoenfield

  (1:46 PM)

If I'm Trout, what are the odds of a career-threatening injury? Pretty slim, right? Doesn't happen that often to position players. And he's so good that he's not suddenly going to turn into a .250 hitter. So I see very little risk if he doesn't sign. That said ... it would be pretty hard to turn down a contract that maybe buys out one year of free agency. That takes Trout through his age-26 season in 2018 and guarantees him probably $20 million in his last two arbitration years and than $30 million in that 2018. Then you hit free agency at 27.

John Theriot (Parts unknown)

Hey there Davy boy. I always enjoy your visits to the St Louis radio airwaves. So can we finally say the NL Central isn't the worst division in baseball?

David Schoenfield

  (1:47 PM)

Of course. Without looking, I assume the AL West had the worst out-of-division record.

Chris (Cleveland)

over/under 10 K's for Salazar?

David Schoenfield

  (1:47 PM)

Under. Assume Francona has a pretty quick hook and turns this into a bullpen game. (Salazar has thrown more than 89 pitches once and under 80 five times in 10 starts.)

Jesse (MN)

Thoughts on the Gardenhire extension? Perpetual mediocrity rewarded?

David Schoenfield

  (1:48 PM)

Twins are conservative. Not the worst strategy, but I guess they feel like he's the right guy to develop all the young talent that's coming up.

Jon (Gurnee)

I've been to Wrigley a few times. Can someone please tell me what is so great about that place? It is an absolute toilet. Just go to the bars.

Tarek (NYC)

Does McCann yell at Puig or Hanley to run the bases when they go yard against them? If so Kershaw should pull a Johnson/Kruk moment on him.

Mike (Brooklyn)

Can it be said that Mike Trout might very well be a rich man's Freddie Lynn, and that the team that signs him should beware?

David Schoenfield

  (1:50 PM)

Well, Lynn was never quite Trout (although great in 1975 and 1979), plus he was already a bit injury-prone when the Angels signed him. Trout, so far, has been durable.

Mike (San Diego)

Replacing Gardy with Ron Washington because he can't win in the playoffs is like when the Chargers fired Marty and hired Norv Turner.

David Schoenfield

  (1:50 PM)

Excellent.

Jeff (OH)

How much weight does this argument carry in free agent negotiations: "The Giants overpaid for Pence, it was a bad deal, and we're not using it as a starting point for Choo"?

David Schoenfield

  (1:51 PM)

Tell that to Choo's agent. A guy named Scott Boras.

Jonathan (Denver)

St. Louis Cardinals 2 and Albert Pujols 0. But at least it wasn't about the money. Keep saying it, Albert. Someone might believe you.

Bobby ( Vegas ) [via mobile]

As a huge braves fan I might sound a little biased with this comment. I am really irritated that the braves never get any love nationally . Let's break down there season from my opinion.... NL east title ( that was supposedly the nats to lose ) , best home record in baseball, top 5 starters era, best bullpen in baseball, best closer in baseball. Offense I can understand a little inconsistent at times but freeman really should be MVP looks at his numbers and he's been the most consistent player in the league. With the struggles of uggla and bj and the injuries by far the most in baseball and this team still won 96 ball games that's just unreal! I believe we are a better team than the dodgers and that will show this weekend, outside of starting rotation we got them beat in every category... Any thoughts would be appreciated. Thanks!

David Schoenfield

  (1:54 PM)

I hear Braves fans whining a lot. They did get a lot of attention in April, when they had the hot start and Justin Upton was hitting all the home runs. You're right, it did tail off after that, mostly because there was never a race going in the East. Freeman kind of snuck up on anybody, and while he had a great season, it wasn't really a McCutchen/Kershaw/Goldschmidt season. But I don't think they were ignored.

Ed (Queens Village)

I'm picking Tigers-Dodgers WS. What are biggest obstacle both teams face getting into WS?

David Schoenfield

  (1:55 PM)

Health. Cabrera has two extra-base hits in September. Dodgers' outfield is banged up (no Kemp, Ethier hurting).

Jonathan (Denver)

Did Aaron really say that the Reds have the best manager in baseball? That's funny.

Tarek (NYC)

Yost resigned with KC. Sorry Royal fans.

David Schoenfield

  (1:56 PM)

That re-signed, not resigned! http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9753309/manager-ned-yost-agrees-2-year-extension-kansas-city-royals

Chris (Atlanta)

How do you feel the Dodgers-Braves series will shake out? You gotta think Kershaw will win one if not both of the games he pitches but the other three games seem like a toss-up to me

David Schoenfield

  (1:56 PM)

My favorite series of the first round. I have the Dodgers in 5, banking on This Is Clayton Kershaw's Year.

Free_AEC (South Jersey)

Ruben Amaro's new analytic department just issued their first report: "Continue war against Scott Boras (Choo). Posting process for Japanese pitchers (Masahiro Tanaka) not cost effective. Sign more Camden Riversharks outfielders and buy dancing shoes for Tyler Cloyd's Grandma."

Brian (Kansas City)

Will I ever see the royals in the postseason? It seems like even when we are good, it's not near good enough to get a postseason spot.

David Schoenfield

  (1:57 PM)

Chances just plummeted by bringing back Yost.

Jay (Kalamazoo)

If the Tigers can get even an 80% healthy Cabrera and Peralta picks up where he left off, where would you put their lineup in a historical context? 1. Jackson 2. Hunter 3. Cabrera 4. Fielder 5. Martinez 6. Peralta 7. Infante 8. Avila/Pena 9. Iglesias

David Schoenfield

  (1:58 PM)

Historical context? It's not even the best this year.

jeff, detroit [via mobile]

A's fan since '71 from detroit. Can my boys finally beat a major market team?

David Schoenfield

  (2:00 PM)

Sure. A's are good. Facing all-righty starters means Brandon Moss is in there every day, which is a good thing. You know, the A's only scored 29 fewer runs than the Tigers, and that's playing in a pitcher's park. Good, deep lineup. Need Colon to have a big series. I'm going A's in 4.

Drew (Mpls)

Bobby, yes you did sound a little biased. Listen, if ESPN loves your team or hates your team it has zero (ZERO!) impact on your chances of winning. Why are people caught up in this? Just be glad your teams season isn't over and forget about the national coverage.

David Schoenfield

  (2:01 PM)

Somebody compiled a list of tweets the other day, listing all the fans who had complained to Buster Olney about their team not getting enough respect/coverage. I think there were tweets from fans of 29 teams ... all except the Marlins. So only the Marlins are apparently properly covered.

David (Chapel Hill)

I have no problem saying that Davis has maybe been more valuable than Cabrera. Winning a close game as opposed to padding a big lead is exactly the type of "valuable" that OPS and WAR don't measure, so I wouldn't call that weighting a "bias" -- it's the stat's whole point! Remember in 2005 when A-Rod won the MVP despite the big clamor that Ortiz was the one coming up with all the big hits? Ortiz's epic 8.8 WPA totally bears that out, and I'd like to see the stat become a point of reference for that sort of argument going forward. (Plus I like how elite set-up men often rank higher than closers, backing up what many of us already believe about saving your best guy for save situations.)

David Schoenfield

  (2:05 PM)

I hear you, and sometimes WPA does reflect clutch hitting -- Davis and Goldschmidt were great in late innings/close games this year, for example. I'm just saying that since the Tigers had more blowouts than the O's or D-backs, Cabrera had fewer opportunities to deliver those late-inning hits. It may not have made a difference this year, and Cabrera was actually pretty bad in late and close situations (I believe).

David Schoenfield

  (2:06 PM)

The other issue is this: Is a run in the ninth inning of a close game worth more than a run in the first inning of a close game? By WPA, it is, right? Isn't that kind of like saying a win in September is worth more than a win in April, when a win is a win. (Playing devil's advocate here; like I said, I do like WPA.)

David Schoenfield

  (2:07 PM)

Plus -- sure, Greg Holland was great. But would you really take him over Scherzer or Darvish or Iwakuma or Chris Sale?

Mike (Brooklyn)

Does Morton have the stuff to keep the Bucs in this series? He has to be the linchpin for that rotation, right?

David Schoenfield

  (2:08 PM)

Well, Burnett will start Game 1, so he's the key guy since he would get two starts. Sure, Morton can do the job. Gets groundballs, keeps the ball in the park, maybe a good matchup against the Braves' swing-for-the-fences offense.

Claymax (Tampa)

Is WPA even statistically stable? Sounds like something that would vary a lot from year to year.

David Schoenfield

  (2:11 PM)

I may since it does depend on context to a certain degree. Let's look at Cabrera. By oWAR past four years (offense only): 7.0, 7.9, 7.8, 9.0. By WPA: 7.5, 7.6, 4.8, 6.7. So ... dipped way down in 2012, despite which he won the MVP.

David (Bel Air, MD)

If you've got a pitcher who can be nearly unhittable, but only for one inning per game, shouldn't you have him always pitch the FIRST inning at home? That's the only time when the score is guaranteed to be close.

David Schoenfield

  (2:15 PM)

I've seen that theory proposed, as in the Braves should have started Kimbrel last year in the wild-card game, to ensure he gets in the game. You could make that argument for Chapman this year. Of course, this would never happen, but my approach would be: If you're Dusty Baker, you can't lose this game without getting Chapman in it. OK, you're not going to start him, but you have to use him a critical situation if it arises. But I'm pretty sure we won't see him unless a save situation develops for the Reds. (Or maybe in extra innings.)

Mike (San Diego)

The problem with WPA is that it's still too context dependent. You're giving players credit for their teammates putting them in better situations. I don't see how the work of others can enhance or devalue how you view someone for an individual award.

Will. B (Montana)

Look DS i know the dodgers or braves are the sexy pick for the WS in the NL, and the pirates are the team you wanna pick with your heart. I know the cardinals are boring, but the cards have much much much more postseason experience compared to every team in the NL. I know talent ultimately wins out, but are you really telling me that the cards post season experience will play no factor?

David Schoenfield

  (2:16 PM)

Postseason experience isn't really relevant, even though people like to say it. And if that IS your premise, how much experience do Shelby Miller, Michael Wacha and Joe Kelly have in the postseason?

James (Atlanta)

I know a lot of Braves fans personally that are whining about a lack of national media attention, and they're the same fans who have no clue what WAR is and think Freddie should be the MVP. So take that for what it's worth.

David Schoenfield

  (2:18 PM)

Not knocking Jonah here, but every stat guy is going to say Trout or risk getting kicked out of the secret stathead society. I've gone back and forth ... oh, wait, I promised no Trout-Miggy questions today!

David Schoenfield

  (2:21 PM)

I will just throw out some numbers. Trout hit .250/.436/.295 (0 HR) in late and close (117 PAs.) I believe Chris Davis hit 11 HRs in late and close situations. When the margin was GREATER than four runs (up or down), Trout hit .466 (86 PAs). Cabrera hit like .250 in those situations. Interestingly, Trout did NOT clean up on the Astros -- .297, one HR, four RBIs (they preferred to walk him).

Chris (Boston)

I know you aren't doing Trout v. Miggy questions, but Jonah Keri lays out a pretty solid case for the former in his article today.

David Schoenfield

  (2:22 PM)

Oops, that was in response to Chris from Boston. Here's Jonah's piece on Grantland: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9751881/jonah-keri-hands-major-mlb-awards

Charlie (Chattanooga)

Re: discussion about Braves not getting attention. People in broadcasting will tell you that if you feel like they are biased against your team, that means they are doing their job right.

Free_AEC (South Jersey)

A-Rod received 10 years and $250mil 13 years ago. Manny Ramirez got 8 years and $160mil from the Red Sox the same year. MLB revenues have since gone up ten fold. Aren't the players underpaid?

David Schoenfield

  (2:23 PM)

If I had to guess ... yes, teams are generally making larger profits now than 12 years ago.

Tribe Fan (Cleveland Obviously)

Do you think the tribe should have limited Jimenez to a shorter outing and relied on the bullpen so that they could start him tomorrow for the wild card game?

David Schoenfield

  (2:24 PM)

No, they had to focus on winning that game and avoid the tiebreaker game. Plus, it still sets up Jimenez for Game 1 of the Division Series. I see the argument, but the goal is to win it all, not just the win the wild-card game. (Plus, you're probably not going to start Jimenez on two days' rest anyway.)

Monroe (Chelsea, Ohio)

Jeff (A's fan since 1971): the A's beat the Mets and Dodgers - pretty major markets and have two WS victories against "small" markets (SF and Cincy) since you became a fan. That's not bad, my friend.

David Schoenfield

  (2:25 PM)

That's going back a ways ...

Will. B (Montana)

My cousin just got hired as an "associate scout" for my cardinals, what does an associate scout even do?

David Schoenfield

  (2:26 PM)

I would assume he scouts a certain region and then the regional supervisor comes in to cross-check. But associate scout could just mean a part-timer as well. Ask your cousin!

Jonathan (Denver)

Will the Cubs get a percentage of the money that the Yankees end up paying Girardi to keep him from signing with the Cubs?

David Schoenfield

  (2:27 PM)

So you're saying Ron Washington is the next manager of the Yankes?

Tarek (NYC)

Re:Will. B (Montana) They go to starbucks for the scout.

Mike (Brooklyn)

Problem with all of these late game situation stats is that they're essentially meaningless because of the small sample sizes of the data. Unless it's projected over the course of several seasons, doesn't it all boil down to simple luck?

David Schoenfield

  (2:30 PM)

Well, yes and no. They aren't predictive; just because Chris Davis was awesome in late-inning situations this year doesn't mean he'll be awesome next year. But it did happen. Why ignore what actually happened? The MVP Award or what have you isn't about predicting the future but evaluating what did happen.

David (Chapel Hill)

As a Mets fan, I LOATHE the Braves, but I do think their team is good enough to do well in the postseason. They'll pitch and play D; all they need is for one of their boppers to bop one at the right time.

WyattBurp (Detroit)

Hey, Dave, thanks for giving the fans a forum. Hope the playoffs gives you plenty to write about. You have a great day.

WyattBurp (Detroit)

One last question. What's your opinion about Jhonny Peralta in the playoffs?

David Schoenfield

  (2:31 PM)

I'd use him. Maybe not in left field, but I'd put him on the roster.

Adam (Baton Rouge)

Dave,Enjoy your articles even though I don't always agree with your opinion... keep doing a good jobQuestion: Has there ever been an MVP that has never played in a postseason game? I am addressing this specifically for Trout but am also curious about winners that never ended up playing in one...

David Schoenfield

  (2:31 PM)

Ernie Banks won two MVP Awards but never played in the postseason. I'm guessing he's the only guy ...

Jim (SF)

I thought there were no Trout vs Miggy for MVP questions today? You are using a loophole by adding Davis to the mix!

David Schoenfield

  (2:33 PM)

And don't ignore Josh Donaldson. The A's get no respect.

Chris (VT)

Especially in playoffs where runs are a premium it seems that baserunners should be at a premium. Why don't we see more lefties bunt against the shift? I get that these guys are mostly power hitters but why not work at it? Keeping the defense from shifting should be good in the long run plus seems like an easy base hit.

David Schoenfield

  (2:34 PM)

I think we'll see hitters start doing this more next season. Fielders have adjusted, not it's up to hitters to adjust back.

Matt (Philly)

Howard in 2006 and Pujols in 2008. Quirky, b/c the year one guy won the MVP, the other guy's team won the World Series.

David Schoenfield

  (2:35 PM)

I thought he meant NEVER played in the postseason, not just in their MVP year (because, after all, Trout hasn't won an MVP Award).

Chris (VT)

So... If we say late game stats are more important. Typically we always hear that a teams best pitchers are starters. Isn't it safe to assume that on average late game at bats come against lesser pitching and thereby may not be as meaningful?

David Schoenfield

  (2:36 PM)

Not necessarily. When I refer to "late and close" the game has be close, so you're usually facing a team's best relievers, who usually have better ERAs than starters.

Julio (Dominican Republic)

Most experts picked Dodgers over Braves. Even tough, I'm a Braves fan, I tend to agree, mainly because Kershaw and Greinke can overpower the Braves lineup (can you say at least 10 K's per game?). Please tell me I'm wrong and the Braves will find the way to win their first playoff series since 2001, PLEASE!!!!

David Schoenfield

  (2:42 PM)

Sorry, I have Dodgers in five. Kershaw is The Man this year.

Tarek (NYC)

Who wins tonight and tomorrow? Going with Pitt 6-2, TB 4-1.

David Schoenfield

  (2:43 PM)

OK, everyone, send in your predictions. I'm going Pirates 4-2 and Rays 5-3.

David (Chapel Hill)

Mike in San Diego, WPA also PENALIZES you for NOT coming through with your teammates on base. It's not purely additive like RBI. It's WPA- subtracted from WPA+. If you lead the league in RBIs by 5, but also lead the league in RBI chances by 30, WPA will prefer the next guy who had fewer opportunities.

Taylor (Iowa)

Matt Adams, professional hitter and NLDS MVP

Quint (Indy, IN)

Dusty Baker has blown a 3-2 World Series lead a NLCS 3-1 lead and a NLDS 2-0 lead so only thing left is for him to blow something in the one game playoff like a 10-0 lead in the fifth inning

Alan (St. Louis)

.284/.335/.503, 17HR, 51RBI; .293/.354/.478, 13HR, 53RBIOne of those stat lines is a popular ROY candidate; the other is barely an afterthought. The second is Wil Myers, the first is Matt Adams. Is this an indictment of the strength of the NLs rookie candidates, or is Myers' case building off of his hype?

David Schoenfield

  (2:44 PM)

It's a much weaker crop in the AL.

Brint (Wichita)

Do you think there is any chance the Phillies trade Cliff Lee in the offseason? He had a really good season which should generate a market for him. From the Phillies' perspective, he is 35 years old and owed a lot of money. Realistically, they won't be that good next year. Shouldn't they trade him to try and get some nice, young players and free up some money?

David Schoenfield

  (2:45 PM)

I think the Phillies view themselves like the Red Sox (or Yankees): You don't rebuild. So I think they keep Lee and try and ... well, do something.

Jeremy (Arlington)

psssh...All Wash's fault....1 start by harrison.....garza sucks....cruz suspended (when it was a known possibility back in january)...berkman for napoli.....kinsler, pierzinski, lewis, feliz, ogando all on the dl at some point. garza sucks....being told to play profar even though he's clearly not ready....seems like its the Gm's fault more than the managers for not having a suitable plan in place....Could be worse they could be the Mariners...who's the manager there? I'll take Wash and 4 straight years of 90+ wins.

Wes (Memphis)

Interesting how every team with 90+ teams either made the postseason outright or at least had a direct opportunity (Rangers) while every team with <90 wins didn't make it. That should keep the howls about the current format somewhat calm at least for this year, but I'm still waiting for the season we have an 83-win WC2 knock out a 101-win WC1 in the play-in game.

Tim (Santa Monica)

If McCutchen didn't exist, who would get your vote for MVP? I would vote for Matt Carpenter.

David Schoenfield

  (2:46 PM)

I think my ballot would go: McCutchen, Kershaw, Goldschmidt, Carpenter, Molina.

Mike (San Diego)

Just because relievers have lower ERAs than starters doesn't make them better pitchers. Look at Luke Hochevar's numbers this year.

David Schoenfield

  (2:47 PM)

No, but they are more effective in the context they're used in (one inning at a time).

Wes (Memphis)

Tell Julio to breathe easy. I'm no sold on the Dodgers as favorites either. There's a reason they won just 92 games in a weak division.

Brian (Fort Wayne)

I have to disagree with anyone who doesn't like this playoff format..these wild card games are exciting.

Andrew (KC)

While I'm not a huge Ned Yost fan, wouldn't it be tough to not bring back the guy that just led the team to the most wins since 1989?

David Schoenfield

  (2:49 PM)

I suppose there's that argument, but a smart front office evaluates on more than wins and losses. Maybe he's the right guy, maybe not. All we see from the outside is lineups and strategy and it's pretty clear that Yost is a little lacking there.

Chris (Chicago)

Finish this sentence: If the ______ (a team) didn't have ______ (a player), there is no chance they would be in the postseason!

David Schoenfield

  (2:51 PM)

Well, the way you phrased the question, you're looking at a team that barely made the playoffs, so it would have to be somebody from Tampa, Cleveland or Detroit, right?

Jeremy (Arlington)

Angels, Trout....oh wait...sorry

Morgan Conrad (Northern California)

As fan here. Josh Donaldson is still rated at the highest WAR on both fangraphs and baseball reference, for a player on an AL playoff team. Where will he finish in MVP votes?Also, after last year's ALDS, think the home plate umpires will be under a little more scrutiny about Verlander's strike zone?

David Schoenfield

  (2:52 PM)

I think it goes Cabrera, Davis, Trout, Cano, Donaldson. Aren't the umpires always under scrutiny?

Chris (Troy)

The high for HRs in the NL this year was 36. Only 3 players in the NL hit 30 HRs or more. Is it fair to say that the PED testing is working? Or is it just better pitching?

David Schoenfield

  (2:52 PM)

Probably both.

TJ (Detroit)

Dave, is a great season like Trout's for a team that is way out of the race by August baseball's version of a tree falling in a forest and no one is around to hear it?

David Schoenfield

  (2:55 PM)

No. That's saying we shouldn't care about what Mike Trout did because his team didn't make the playoffs. Why make that argument? Should we take Ernie Banks out of the Hall of Fame? I mean, the guy never played in a postseason game, so I guess his career was irrelevant?

Vladimir (Moscow)

Tribe 4 Rays 3

David Schoenfield

  (2:55 PM)

Idaho or Russia?

Jonathan (Denver)

If Pence = 5/90, then Ellsbury = ??

David Schoenfield

  (2:55 PM)

More.

Tarek (NYC)

Is Dodgers vs Sox the WS that MLB/Fox wants?

David Schoenfield

  (2:55 PM)

I would think that would get the highest ratings, yes.

Ken (Palo Alto)

Tribe over Rays, Salazar and Masterson combine to pitch 9 innings of 3 hit, shutout ball, with 15K's between. Tribe wins 3-0.

Paul (Albany, OR)

Why is the Dodgers division weaker than the Braves. True Wash ended up better than the Snakes, but everyone had over 72 wins AND there was no bottom feeder like Miami. At best a tossup otherwise NL West > NL East

Jeff (Columbus)

When Jhonny Peralta was with the Indians he was legendary for driving in four runs when the Indians won by ten and being invisible in close games. He would always end up with decent numbers but seldom contribute to a win. Are there any sabermetric stats that account for that?

David Schoenfield

  (2:56 PM)

Baseball-Reference tracks high leverage, medium leverage and low leverage, based on the situation.

Chris (Cleveland)

tribe over rays 5-1 and pirates over reds 7-4

Slough (Seattle)

Is the 1987 NL MVP vote the worst historically? Bad selection, which ended up maybe making the difference in getting Dawson into the HOF?

David Schoenfield

  (2:58 PM)

Probably. Dawson or Juan Gonzalez in 1996.

Jon (Bozeman, MT)

Rays 4 Indians 2, Pirates 3 Reds 1

Zachary (Palo Alto) [via mobile]

Braves and A's have identical records for the last two seasons. Both have "A" on their hats. Both teams have underperforming players at key positions with solid pitching. Seems like a collision course with destiny in the World Series, no?

Ken (Palo Alto)

Masterson:Tribe 2013 playoff run:: Lincecum:Giants 2012 Playoff run?

David Schoenfield

  (2:59 PM)

Definite parallel. Except Lincecum was used in the middle innings, looks like Masterson will be eighth/ninth? Although I'm curious to see how Francona uses him tomorrow if, say, Salazar gets in a big jam in the fourth or fifth.

Justin (New York)

With no Motte, Carpenter, Garcia (who was pitching well before his injury), Furcal, and a revolving door of rookie pitchers coming up and being successful how does Mike Matheny not get any MOY consideration? Hurdle should win but why is MM getting no love

David Schoenfield

  (3:00 PM)

Because the Cardinals were expected to be good! Don't you know how manager of the year works!

Dave (Appleton, WI)

Is Jim Leyland a HOFer or does he need another World Series title to get in the Hall?

David Schoenfield

  (3:01 PM)

Close. Another title clinches it. Probably gets in anyway. Pretty high up on the all-time win list.

Jonathan (Denver)

Predictions, huh? I say Dusty does something stupid.

David Schoenfield

  (3:01 PM)

OK, that's it. Have to run. Enjoy the game tonight!