Alan Schwarz

  (1:42 PM)

Well folks, I just signed on and see that there are a lot of questions piling up already, so why don't we start a few minutes early? Keep your hands and feet inside the car ....

Dan (Miami)

Do you discuss Eric Walker in your book? Have you ever seen the 62-page "pamphlet" that he gave Billy Beane?

Alan Schwarz

  (1:45 PM)

Yes and yes. Eric Walker, who was hired by the A's in 1982 by Sandy Alderson -- Billy Beane was still in the minors, remember -- was probably the father of the modern on-base revolution. His manifesto, Winning Baseball, had a huge impact on the A's philosophy through the '80s, long before Beane arrived in the front office. I discuss his influence a great deal in the book and have many of his original memos, but I can't publish them because of course Eric Walker owns the copyright. You can find Eric at his website "High Boskage House".

Aron (Boston)

Hey Alan, I just heard you on WEEI here in Boston! I was wondering if there have ever been statistics kept regarding B.A. against with runners on base as opposed to the bases being empty?

Alan Schwarz

  (1:47 PM)

These are relatively new statistics, but are in fact available on the ESPN website if you know how to find them. Go to pitching stats, and then the tab for "Opp. Batting". When you get there, choose the split at the top right-hand corner for runners on base, and you'll see the breakdown for that situation. (Remember to make the dataset non-qualified, since pitchers won't have enough innings in those situations to show up otherwise.)

Chris (Norwalk, CT)

Hi Alan, What exactly do we know about how/when the "unearned" run distinction came about? And, is it time to do away with it? It seems to be a flawed concept at best.

Alan Schwarz

  (1:49 PM)

Believe it or not, the distinction between "earned" and "unearned" runs began in the 1860s and 1870s -- and not to measure pitching! It was to measure DEFENSE. Back then, a ton of errors were made, about 10 per game, and there were wild fluctuations in the number of R and ER each team gave up. Meanwhile, back then, pitchers weren't considered all that important, so there were very few stats to describe them.

sarang - DC

Outside of individual records, what do you think is the most unattainable record in baseball is?

Alan Schwarz

  (1:50 PM)

If you're talking team records, I'd have to say the Yankees' 26 World Series championships. No one will ever catch them, and something tells me they'll add to it every now and then.

Nowlin (Lansing, MI)

Do you have a formula for normalizing today's stats to, say, 1975 numbers? I look at starting pitchers' ERAs in the 7.00s and 8.00s, and I wonder how I can adjudge their effectiveness when my frame of reference is the era of Jim Palmer and Ferguson Jenkins.

Alan Schwarz

  (1:51 PM)

Many people have done this. At the risk of plugging other websites -- hey Disney, if you don't like it, tell me soon! -- you can go to baseball-reference.com, which has a lot of stats that are "normalized" (the accepted term) for league average, ballpark size and all sorts of other things.

Mike (miami)

hello, i'm not for or against moneyball and the previous things Cook had written, but my problem with .obp is i think walks are valued too high... for a leadoff hitter, maybe not. but for someone like frank thomas, who should be driving in runs, not walking to first... plus, it will take probably 3 hits to score frank thomas from first... do I have a legitimate point here?

Alan Schwarz

  (1:53 PM)

One of the problems today is that our reaction to the undervaluing of the walk -- which was the case for decades -- is that many people now OVERvalue it. I just was speaking about this with David Neft (the brains behind the 1969 debut of the Baseball Encyclopedia) about this. I don't want to let the cat out of the bag, but he and I are going to work on something that I will write about in my New York Times "Keeping Score" column in September. Stay tuned!

Phil (Atlanta, GA)

Couple Greg Maddux questions here: Will we ever see the Maddux of old or are we stuck seeing an old Maddux? Does he still have a legit shot at another 15 win season and how does that rank among the streaks? Why does Clemens get so much more respect than Maddux when Maddux has done arguably as much as Clemens and has done so with arguably less "stuff"?

Alan Schwarz

  (1:57 PM)

I'm going to try to focus on stat-related questions, but figured I'd tackle this one since we have time....I think Maddux could definitely win 8 more games this year to finish at 15 yet again. I'm not a big fan of streaks in general, and I think we all know that wins are a pretty dubious measure. As for Maddux' reputation w.r.t. Clemens, well, you can thank two things: the Boston and New York media, and also the fact that Clemens really was a slight notch more dominant, stuff notwithstanding.

Jeff (New York)

Hey Alan, I'm a yankee fan and I'm worried about our starting pitchers. I mean javier vazquez, mike mussina and kevin brown will all be fine but what about lieber and contreras? Also do you think cashman will start making some moves to improve the rotation?

Alan Schwarz

  (1:58 PM)

I think there's virtually a 100 percent chance that Brian Cashman lands a pitcher in the next 4 weeks. When Rockefeller missed his limo, he didn't walk; he just ordered another one.

Steve (NY)

what's your opinon on Derek Jeter? the guy has good stats, not the best, but it seems this guy comes through time after time in clutch situations.. stats can't account for this....can they?

Alan Schwarz

  (2:01 PM)

Derek Jeter drives a wedge between stat folks and traditional scouting folks. I believe that the debates have been so polarized that we really can't appreciate the benefits of each side. OK, so Jeter's (reputed) skills don't show up in the stats, particularly defensive ones. But I don't think that in itself means we can dismiss his influence on the Yankees. I say that, though, with two HUGE caveats: One, I think that clutch hitting is disastrously misunderstood (in particular by Derek himself, though that isn't the point) and I hate judging players by saying, "Yeah, but he has 4 rings." That was a product of far more than Jeter himself.

Paul Mocker - Goleta, CA

In the evolution of statistics, which ones will wind up being dominant? BPro's are the best (WARP, SNVA, and EQA) but I doubt they will become generally accepted by the mainstream. Your thoughts?

Alan Schwarz

  (2:03 PM)

We have to wait 10-20 years for this stuff to creep into the mainstream -- because it will take that long for the people making the decisions (writers, editors) to include them. It was the same way with stats we now take for granted, like OPS. It first appeared in print in The New York Times in 1984. The youth of one generation becomes the decision-makers of the next, and stats will ride on the coattails of that yet again this time.

YANKEE HATERS OF THE WORLD

STOP with the Yankees Chat. I have submitted 3 stats-related questions already without a response!!

Alan Schwarz

  (2:04 PM)

Hey, I'm trying to avoid that, too. Give me a break! I'm getting hundreds of questions and sometimes it's hard to sift through them deftly.

Alan Schwarz

  (2:05 PM)

Yankee Hater, point out your other names and I'll get to them....

Paul Mocker - goleta, ca

Did you interview Cook or Davey Johnson when doing research for the book? How many of the characters in the book did you get to interview?

Alan Schwarz

  (2:06 PM)

Alas, Earnshaw Cook died many years ago. But I did speak with Davey Johnson, who was a disciple, about him. I interviewed as many subjects as were alive: George Lindsey, Eric Walker, Steve Mann, Pete Palmer, Hal Richman, and dozens and dozens more. It was a blast.

Steve (NY)

can you explain how clutch hitting is disastrously misunderstood?

Alan Schwarz

  (2:07 PM)

This is explained in Chapter 10 of my book, which deals with the gradual discovery of luck's importance in baseball statistics. In general, it has been proven that while some hitters HAVE performed well in the clutch, that doesn't mean they will in the future. They usually just revert to their original performance, which means that it isn't an inherent skill, just a residue of randomness.

Barth (Detroit, MI)

I will be interested to read about Hal Richman, creator of by far the best stats-based tabletop baseball game. Is the market for tabletop baseball games holding its own against the Xboxes and PlayStations?

Alan Schwarz

  (2:08 PM)

I devote several pages to Hal Richman, who invented Strat-O-Matic when he was 11 years old. As for the market for these games, I'm afraid I have no idea.

Joe

Alan, ESPN.com recently added some cool features like DIPS ERA and Park Factor and Productive Outs to their stat selection. 1. What's the most interesting of these new pieces and 2. What else would you like to see there?

Alan Schwarz

  (2:10 PM)

I'm not big on productive outs, frankly, because teams that have a lot of them usually are the same ones with a lot of guys on base, which is the idea in the first place. (It's sort of similar to judging teams by LOB; it misses the point.) What would I like to see? I want to see someone program the method used by Harlan and Eldon Mills in 1969, which is detailed heavily in my book. It is very similar to the method resurrected by two guys at Yale last year, and featured in BusinessWeek.

Bobo in Boboville

Who are some of the new "heroes" that would be discussed in Version 2 of this book? You only mention Rob Neyer sparingly, and say nothing about Matthew Namee or Steve Treder or some of the others who are supposed to be next to carry the torch.

Alan Schwarz

  (2:12 PM)

You're right -- Rob is not discussed too much, as are several other important people: the APBA folks, Gary Gillette, and more. That's because I had to be aware of building a readable narrative, one that would keep peoples' attention, rather than trying to cover everything in detail. It's the difference between a history and an encyclopedia. As for the future guys, I look forward to watching that evolution as carefully as I just recounted the history.

Timy Williams

what is with the astros?? they cant pitch, they cant hit, and they have no relief. they trade for one of the most complete players in the game, they have a great rotation, and they have a dominant closer. how could they be 9 games back?? someone is about to get fired. how do i... er, jimy williams do at this point??

Alan Schwarz

  (2:16 PM)

Lots of Astros questions I'll try to deal with here. I have been very disappointed with the Astros not just this year but several others recently. I do know that they're a little hampered by having to pay/play Bagwell and Biggio so much out of loyalty, when each is slipping offensively (though Biggio has rebounded a bit) and can't play defense anymore.....I certainly think they'll do better in the second half.....One poster asked if Clemens might be dealt to the Rangers. Wow, that would be incredible, huh? I have to assume Clemens has a no-trade but would at least consider it.

Mike ( Forest Hills, NY)

are the mets for real?

Alan Schwarz

  (2:20 PM)

I can't believe they're in this thing, which of course is in large part because the Braves/Marlins/Phillies haven't gotten going at all. The Mets certainly can't act like they're not in it, which is a problem -- they're too old to be trading prospects for veteran help now, because they're going to need young guys next year and '06. So Jim Duquette simply can't be forced into making a short-term risky deal that will hamper them for years. He's in the crosshairs, big-time. (Hey, maybe I'll do a column on that!)

The Editor at The Flatiron

The research necessary for this book must have been enormous. Two questions: 1. What is your favorite stat and why (really 2 questions)? 2. What is on the horizon for stats - are there new stats that will be hitting the mainstream soon?

Alan Schwarz

  (2:22 PM)

Cool....Flatiron Building....I really don't have a favorite stat, because no one number tells you really want you want to know; they all have to be understood in context. But if I want a quick-and-dirty number to tell me something about a hitter, I'll choose OPS, which is very easy to find nowadays......As for future stats, I can't wait until someone figures out how to do something credible with fielding. MLB.com is outfitting stadiums with cameras that will capture on-field data (runner speeds, hit trajectories) that will allow us to finally solve the Rubik's Cube of fielding skill. Expect those in about 2006 or '07

MIKE (WASHINGTON)

DO YOU TALK ABOUT BARRY BONDS IN THE BOOK. I THINK HE HAD A LOT TO DO W/ THE INTRODUCTION OF OPS AND OTHER STATS INTO THE MAINSTREEM. WHAT DO YOU THINK?

Alan Schwarz

  (2:24 PM)

Not a TON of Bonds talk, because the seeds of the on-base revolution were sewn years before Bonds broke in. But you're right, his ridiculous OBPs have slapped some people awake. One great Bonds quote in the book: After I discuss how a bunch of Harvard professors were devising new statistics to measure hitting, he said, "There are a lot of idiots at Harvard."

Travis (Chicago, IL)

Alan - Statis Pro or Strat-O-Matic? Grew up with Statis Pro here... thought/think it still is the perfect baseball sim. Where do you stand?

Alan Schwarz

  (2:24 PM)

Alas, I was a Strat-O-Kid. I remember getting Statis Pro and being completely befuddled. Scampered back to Strat and never looked back, though I stopped playing when I was about 14.

Tito (NYC)

Alan - Even though neither Keith Hernandez nor Don Mattingly seems destined for the HOF... I always felt that after watching both nearly every day for the peaks of their careers, that Hernandez was the more deserving. I can't imagine a more dominant 1B defensively.. and he had the MVP, batting title etc. In this age of ever-growing stats... do you think that Hernandez's worth might grow over time, while Mattingly's will begin to pale next to all the great power numbers of today?

Alan Schwarz

  (2:27 PM)

You gotta believe, Tito, that Mattingly and Hernandez were given all the due they deserved and more, given their New York addresses. Their defense was superb, of course, but that's hard to really quantify; your memories are legitimate but hard to explain without any sorts of numbers. As for Mattingly specifically, he had 6-7 great years but then almost nothing after that. His failing back just killed him, and his HOF chances along with it.

MIKE (SEATTLE)

WHAT IS THE MOST AMAZING STAT YOU HAVE SEEN IN THE LAST 5 OR SO YEARS.

Alan Schwarz

  (2:28 PM)

You know what? I think we're ABOUT to see it. Barry Bonds this year will hit an absurd percentage of strikes for home runs. While we don't have data to prove that it's the highest of all time, I think it's fair to say whatever it is, it will be. That number will be simply ridiculous.

Jimmy,Beantown

How do you think the redsox will do?

Alan Schwarz

  (2:30 PM)

Several similar Red Sox questions.......I said last week, after the Sox lost 3 to the Yankees, that for all the doomsaying, it was probably going to be the low point of their year, and people shouldn't overreact just because we were in the midst of it. The Sox are still a good team, and Theo Epstein is sure to land an arm for the stretch run. (Probably not Randy Johnson, rumors of which he has called "Internet BS.") The Yankees have built too much of a lead for a division title to be a reasonable expectation, but I still say they're favorites for the wild card, by a considerable margin.

Mike (Chico, CA)

Now that Eric Gagne's streak is over, do you maybe see the Dodgers using him a little differently - as in tied games or even a run down to hold the opponent. There are times he goes almost a week without pitching. Thanks

Alan Schwarz

  (2:32 PM)

Yes, Mike, I do believe that Gagne has not been used as properly as he should be. Saves are a silly stat, made even more so by managers who use relievers in deference to it. I'm sure that Paul DePodesta, when the time is right, will speak to Jim Tracy about this.

Phil (Toronto)

what do you make of that whole ty cobb/babe ruth comparison.. and what's with those numbers.. with cobb being first, then ruth, teddy ballgame, gherig, and mantle... was that ops?

Alan Schwarz

  (2:35 PM)

Phil is referring, I think, to Earnshaw Cook's statistic I wrote about in the excerpt, which is posted on ESPN.com.....What do I make of the Cobb-Ruth comparison? I'd take Ruth, because he rose so high over his competition at the time, power-wise. That doesn't mean Cobb wasn't an astounding player himself, probably one of the top 5 of all time.

Steve (NY)

sorry, last one.. yes, i agree clutch performance in the past may not mean anything in the future and plays will revert back as you say... but there's still Jeter, walk off homeruns, backhand's, leaping into the stands twice... i mean, everyone in the world loves to dog the guy, but in 3 consecutive years in the WS he went .350 .350 and .409

Alan Schwarz

  (2:37 PM)

I don't think everyone likes to dog the guy. Some overreact in that direction to compensate for those who want to deify Jeter, particularly at the expense of superior players (like Alex Rodriguez for many years). But he is a remarkable player, no matter what side of the fence you might be on. Fantastic to watch, classy, skills all over the place, the whole deal. A wonderful, wonderful player.

Robert (Suncheon, South Korea)

How much better do you think Bonds is compared to the rest of the playing field (defensively and offensively)? Do you think he'll ever surpass Ruth as THE greatest player of all-time?

Alan Schwarz

  (2:40 PM)

South Korea, hello! ..... I think Bonds' defense is such that it's possible Alex Rodriguez' 2003 season at SS was more valuable in some respects. I'm really not sure because it's so hard to compare an all-around SS to a (stupendously) offensive LF. I don't think Bonds can go down as the best player ever, because Ruth was such a good pitcher. As for the best HITTER of all time, it's between Ruth, Williams and Bonds at this point. If Bonds keeps this stuff up for another year or two, he'll probably go down as the best, certainly the most intimidating.

Scott (New Lenox, IL)

What elevates Willie Mays over Stan Musial? Because from what I can tell from comparing statistics of the two, Musial was slightly better. Any thoughts?

Alan Schwarz

  (2:41 PM)

There's no question that Mays was the superior defensive player, by a lot. And as much as the NY market mythologized Mays, one needs to remember that Candlestick killed him. He probably lost 4-7 homers a year in that joint.

The Assistant at The Flatiron

Mr. Schwarz-- Out of all the people you discuss in THE NUMBERS GAME, with whom would you most like to actually watch a game, and why?

Alan Schwarz

  (2:42 PM)

I'd want to meet F.C. Lane, the editor of Baseball Magazine from 1908 into the '30s, who did sabermetric work that would blow away people today. The guy just did amazing stuff, long before data or calculators were available. An amazing mind, generations ahead of his time. (See Chapter 2.)

Jason (Columbia, MD)

Do Cook's probabilities for the 24 situations accurate today? How would those probabilities be affected by managerial decisions?

Alan Schwarz

  (2:44 PM)

The expected runs scored in the 24 base-out situations change a little every year, depending on league average runs scored, power, etc. I know several franchises that figure them out each offseason -- take a guess on one of them -- to refine how they handle strategies like the sacrifice bunt and stolen base.

Gary: (St. Louis, MO)

From top to bottom the cardinals are the best team in the majors. The cubs are not even half the team the cradinals are. Can I get your thoughts on that statement thanks

Alan Schwarz

  (2:45 PM)

I've always thought the Cardinals were better than the Cubs, though I must admit I thought the Cubs' problem was offense, which it has not been. Never underestimate Walt Jocketty. The guy knows how to build well-rounded clubs, and to make good deals at the deadline.

Nate, IN

This is in regards to poor statistics. Barry Larkin WAS a great ball player, but he is not worthy of an all-star appearance this year. From the looks of it all-time stats are now the telling factor, so where is Rafael Palmiero?

Alan Schwarz

  (2:47 PM)

I'm not a big Palmeiro guy, but he's growing on me a bit. Perhaps that's because I just got 150 e-mails ripping me for saying Fred McGriff's (almost) 500 homers shouldn't guarantee him a Hall induction? Palmeiro looks like he'll keep things up to the point where, even though he wasn't one of the top 2-3 first basemen of his generation, he still belongs in the Hall. The inclusion of Tony Perez makes keeping other 1B out difficult.

Mike (miami)

what are your thoughts on Cook's ideas for starting a relief pitcher and having sluggers bat first? The first one is interesting, the sluggers hitting first seems a bit stupid, yes, they may get more AB's.. but i think it will hurt the team as a whole throughout the game.... your thoughts?

Alan Schwarz

  (2:50 PM)

Two things -- I was asked by a GM last week what I thought the next great innovation in baseball was going to be, and I said that someone is going to come along and figure out a FAR better way of deploying starting pitchers, whether in a 4-man, 8-man (4 IP each) or whatever rotation. The five-man is not the most efficient way of using $6 million arms....As for the batting order, most studies I've seen have determined that it matters a lot less than people assume. Casey Stengel used to bat Bob Cerv or Elston Howard leadoff sometimes. Bobby Bragan did the same thing with the '50s Pirates and '60s Braves. In general, since I don't think it matters a whole lot, no manager will want to bother with the uninformed hullaballoo that would undoubtedly follow.

Robert (Suncheon, South Korea)

Oh yes, the Soju is going down just fine thank you. Do you think that Bonds tries to copy Ty Cobb on the on-deck circle? Tobb used to do that to intimidate the opposing team. And I believe that it's been effective for Bonds as well.

Alan Schwarz

  (2:52 PM)

This question is making me wonder -- what if Cobb ever met Bonds in person? What's the over-under before they started swinging at each other and broke out the switchblades? About six seconds?

Hogcard (Chicago, IL)

Is the 500 home run mark still an automatic shoe in for the HOF? I'd hate to think players like Sosa and possibly McGriff will be there someday.

Alan Schwarz

  (2:54 PM)

Goodness, I hope not. Many people (including HOF voters) seem to think it is, but hopefully by the time the McGriffs of the world are eligible, a ton more players will have crossed the mark and people will realize that it isn't the special number they grew up with. These are the same people who say that we have to lower the career W magic number to 250 instead of 300. Why should we lower it for wins and not raise it for homers, when it's so obvious that each is reasonable?

Stuart (Baltimore)

an 8 man rotation, with 4 ip....what?

Alan Schwarz

  (2:55 PM)

2 starting-caliber pitchers pitch 4 innings each every four days. Oakland tried something like that about 10 years ago.

Ryan Penner (Winnipeg, Manitoba)

In regards to what Robert said, do you think that Bonds COULD eventually eclipse Ruth if he were to maintain his present levels for a few more year (into say 2007)?

Alan Schwarz

  (2:57 PM)

Oh goodness, yes. Also, I have a very hard time holding Ruth's accomplishments up as unattainable standards. It's very important to remember that the major leagues Ruth played in didn't have Pedro Martinezes and Gary Sheffields. Derek Jeter wouldn't have been ALLOWED to play on the 1927 Yankees, for the sole reason that his father is black. Makes you wonder about the good ol' days, huh?

Joe (Toronto)

CAN WE GET TO SOME PROSPECTS QUESTIONS. Firstly, I don't think Mauer is the No. 1 prospect. I think it's Alexis Rios. He is a five tool player, had better stats, and is overall better than Mauer or Upton. Where would you rate him?

Alan Schwarz

  (2:59 PM)

Well, Joe, we're kind of sticking to stats today, but since I'm a Baseball America columnist -- and will be doing a chat on baseballamerica.com tomorrow, as well -- I'll do this one. Yes, I think people have forgotten about Rios -- I even picked him as the AL rookie of the year this year even though he started in Triple-A. I'll never look good for that, of course, but Rios has a ton of tools. He's an elite prospect. I'd probably take Mauer or Upton at this point because of their premium positions, but boy, does Rios make it tough.

Pierre, Miami

Who is the most OVERRATED active player???

Alan Schwarz

  (3:00 PM)

I'm sorry, I can't help but laugh. This poster's name can't be a coincidence......How about Alex Sanchez? His average could be emptier than a hydrogen atom.

carolyn st nc

What is your best memorie in baseball

Alan Schwarz

  (3:01 PM)

Carolyn has asked some nice questions.....I'd say when I walked into a major league clubhouse for the first time, totally intimidated and ripe for abuse, and Joe Carter walked up to me and greeted me warmly and professionally. I'll never forget it.

Frank, Houston

Suppan, Carpenter, Marquis??? Can these guys carry the Cards to the postseason? I think not!

Alan Schwarz

  (3:03 PM)

Yeah, but look at the competition. The Brewers and Reds can't stick in it, can they? The Astros will have to get one heck of a hot Andy Pettitte to climb back in with the Cards. The Cubs are probably the most dangerous but are so iffy with the health of the starters. Very, very weird division.

Brandes (Nashville)

I'm curious as to what you make of Gagne's streak. It's obvious to me that the streak is a manifestation of his dominance. Yet people want to take something away from it because of the "definition" of the save rule. Big deal if the save rule is a little shaky when it comes to the value of a save to your team. Is it any less significant than say... the value of getting a hit every game?

Alan Schwarz

  (3:04 PM)

Very good post.....I was actually on "Cold Pizza" yesterday talking about this. I think what people are doing is not tearing Gagne down, but trying to say that the save is a silly statistic to begin with. There are FAR better ways to illustrate what a monster Eric Gagne is. To do it with consecutive saves misses the point. The guy is the most dominant (at least for now) reliever of all time.....And with respect to hitting streaks, yeah, that's a dumb stat too, in my opinion.

Luis, Maryland

LIPS (Late Inning Pressure Situation) How great is this stat?? I think it is so great that broadcasters should post it in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings.

Alan Schwarz

  (3:06 PM)

It's an important stat, yes, but one needs to keep in mind that hitters who consistently perform ABOVE their usual levels in those situations are very, very rare. (One, because clutch hitting is rather illusory, and two, because most hitters decline in those situations due to better relief pitching.) You need a TON of LIPS data for anything that might be statistically significant.

david (Michigan)

But you must understand that Alex Sanchez does so much for the Tigers b/c he gets on base all the time with his speed. He is definetely not the most overrated. How about you pick on a guy who is hitting way below where they should be, and stop picking on my Tigers, they just beat the Yanks in a series!!!!

Alan Schwarz

  (3:07 PM)

Hey, I don't like the Yankees either!

Rich McDermott (Detroit, MI)

John Kruk, in my opinion, is a half-wit. He states that OBP isn't an important stat. Please tell me you disagree with him....

Alan Schwarz

  (3:08 PM)

Yes, I disagree with him -- though some people OVERRATE OBP, which is dangerous too....... How about this: I don't think Kruk is a half-wit. I think he's about a .178-wit. Anyone out there with a better statistic to figure that one out?

Brett, Green Bay

Everyone in Chicago brags about the Cubs pitching. Well, the Cubs took Clement, Prior and Zambrano in to Cheese Country and go back to the Windy City 0-3. If those three can't get it done against the Brew Crew then there is nothing to brag about. What do you think??

Alan Schwarz

  (3:09 PM)

I think your tongue is a little in cheek, but seriously, you can't overrate one three-game series, no matter what happens. The Yankees sweep the Sox, are deified, then lose 3 to the Mets, then lose 2 of 3 to the Tigers. Baseball is a game in which you need lots of information to form a credible opinion. Three games just doesn't cut it. (Nor do best-of-seven series in October, but that's a subject for another chat!)

Brian (Cleveland, OH)

Do you think the Indians will have a run just like they did in the mid-90's in the near future?

Alan Schwarz

  (3:11 PM)

The people who know the most about young talent -- my colleagues at Baseball America -- certainly think so. Mark Shapiro has done a great job of stockpiling guys. Imagine if Brandon Phillips were an asset....

Jason (Oviedo, Fl.)

Alan, do you think there will ever be a "batting eye" stat? Or some type of stat the details a batters ability to swing at good and/or bad picthes?

Alan Schwarz

  (3:12 PM)

That's hard to say. Some people think that BB-SO ratio speaks to that. Advanced stat services such as Inside Edge and others keep track of strikes swung at, bad-ball BA, etc. It's great stuff, though can't be taken overly seriously.

Rich McDermott (Detroit, MI)

LOL @ .178 wit. I'm not sure how to figure that one out, statistically, but it's probably safe to say that's about 1/3 of his weight. Thank you for answering my question! :-)

Alan Schwarz

  (3:13 PM)

Rich's response suggests that Kruk's wititude will rise with his weight. Very dangerous assertion.....

Alan Schwarz

  (3:13 PM)

(I should note that I'm only having fun with my ESPN colleague Mr. Kruk, who, I might add, was my favorite Phillie while I went to college in Philadelphia in the late 1980s.)

K.C. (Berwyn, IL)

Is there anyone that hasn't been voted into the HOF that actually deserves to be in?

Alan Schwarz

  (3:14 PM)

I believe that the HOF is a little too watered-down as it is, and we should be very careful about adding players who have already been considered. But if I had to pick one hitter and pitcher, they'd probably be Ron Santo and Bert Blyleven. I'm more confident on Santo.

Teryl Gaudet (Winnipeg, Manitoba)

What do you think of Bill James? Is he better than Rob Neyer?

Alan Schwarz

  (3:16 PM)

That's like asking if Charles Darwin is "better" than James Watson. Like hitters, each must be considered in the context of their surroundings. When you do that, without detracting at all from Rob's work, you realize that Bill James was probably the most influential baseball writer of the 20th century.

Luis, Maryland

Okay if you don't like LIPS..then how about VORP?? VORP(Value Over Replacement Player)estimates how many runs one player adds to a average team's run production.

Alan Schwarz

  (3:17 PM)

I love the replacement-level concept. I'm not sure how "accurately" it works in practice, because that's so tough to determine. But the concept is extremely important to consider and learn from.

Todd, Michigan

Pierre, Miami? Brett, Green Bay? Please look out for double posters! Give everyone else a chance!

Alan Schwarz

  (3:18 PM)

I don't understand this, because I'm a little new to the chat biz.....but please bear with me. I'm answering as many good questions as I can, with priority to stat questions, since that's what my book is about.

Marty (Boston)

I don't see the bid for Santo..... i mean, what's his career BA .275?

Alan Schwarz

  (3:19 PM)

.277 BA but excellent power for 3B in a down offensive era, and great defense, and high walk totals. 3B is underrepresented in the Hall, so I think Santo is one of the few omissions around.

Jeff (Grand Rapids, MI)

Is there a way to compare positions across eras? For example, SS used to be a position full of light-hitting fielders. Now if you can't hit, you can't find the field no matter how good your defense is.

Alan Schwarz

  (3:21 PM)

It's a little jagged, but what I try to do is compare where the batter ranks in OPS (if I can choose only one stat, that would be it, though of course it isn't perfect) among players at his position. That way, a .788-OPS guy in 1968 who ranks second among shortstops can be seen as "better" (difficult term to use, but what the hell) than a .863-OPS guy who ranks sixth today. There are far more sophisticated methods than this, of course, but it's one I use occasionally to get a quick idea of what's up.

Rich McDermott (Detroit, MI)

When you are finished here, I know you mentioned that you have a chat tomorrow at BBA...could you let us know if you need to be a paid member to participate in that chat or not? Thanks!

Alan Schwarz

  (3:23 PM)

Hey, great question. Let me find out....

Matt (Oakland)

What do you think of the speech Joe Morgan puts on whenever he calls an Oakland A's game (e.g. all five games of the ALDS)? It always seems in the first couple of innings that he starts preaching the importance of "manufacturing runs" and all that other useless, ineffective crap used in "small ball".

Alan Schwarz

  (3:24 PM)

I respect what Joe accomplished on the field, obviously. But I wish he would allow more respect for other approaches. I think it's amazing that the skills for which sabermetricians love Morgan are some of the same ones that he rails against on TV. Very interesting, and fun to monitor.

Alan Schwarz

  (3:25 PM)

ANSWER TO PREVIOUS QUESTION -- Yes, everyone can chat tomorrow at baseballamerica.com at 2 p.m. No subscription necessary.

Steve, SF

Is there any evidence that Cook's book influenced the Earl Weaver-era Orioles and waiting for the 3-run homer?

Alan Schwarz

  (3:26 PM)

Good question, Steve. Although Earnshaw Cook lived in Baltimore and was a media darling in the mid-1960s, there's no evidence that Earl Weaver was a particular devotee. I remember asking Davey Johnson this and he said he didn't remember, but doubted it, because Earl had many of his own ideas. (Also, I don't see Earl slogging through the complicated notation in Cook's book.) That being said, it's possible that Weaver was influenced by Cook with Johnson as the intermediary.

Reggie, Indiana

Josh Byrnes, Dave Frost, Jeff Kingston, Keith Law and Jeff Luhnow are the new breed of front-office executives: fresh, IVY leaguers that heavily rely on statistics. What happened to the lost art of scouting???

Alan Schwarz

  (3:28 PM)

Nothing happened to it, Reggie. It's just being supplemented by other methods that might help uncover things that the eyes can't see. It's a shame that so many traditional baseball people feel threatened by the advances of statistics. There's no reason the two can't live very well together. The Red Sox are attempting to do this and I think are at the forefront of weaving together the two approaches.

Jason ( Oviedo, Fl.)

just read my question you posted, and I realized I worded it incorrectly. I meant to ask if there is or will be a stat detailing a batter's ability to get a base hit off of a potential strike and a hit off of a potential ball. Quite confusing, I know, probably more of a swing control/contact question.

Alan Schwarz

  (3:29 PM)

Actually, that's what these services do. They look to see where a pitch was/would be in the strike zone, whether the batter swung, and then what happened after he swung.

Mike (Milwaukee, WI)

Should the save stat be changed and if so how? I personally find it stupid when managers leave their closers in the bullpen even if the team is in a bind in the 8th inning.

Alan Schwarz

  (3:30 PM)

The save rule can't be changed because there are too many conservatives out there. But people in the know realize that top relievers being saved for only save situations is silly. THe Red Sox have started the trend toward addressing this, and I guarantee that other clubs follow as younger assistant GMS and managers come into the fold.

Andy (Jeff.IN)

I was just wondering when did they start making the catcher change out balls that hit the dirt?

Alan Schwarz

  (3:32 PM)

The catcher doesn't switch them, but the umpire does. This became very common in 1921, after Ray Chapman had been killed by a pitched ball the previous year. The leagues mandated that much cleaner balls needed to be used to protect hitters. So while many people believe that a "rabbit" ball was introduced around that time, it was probably this rule change, as well as the example set by Babe Ruth, that sparked the offensive boom of the 1920s.

brandon, manhattan, ks

you talk a lot about 'dumb' stats. what in your opinion are the 3 most relevant stats when determining the value of a player?

Alan Schwarz

  (3:33 PM)

Well, I suppose I might have used the word "dumb" but I hate to -- all stats have value, or can be overvalued, depending on how you interpret them. Disclaimer aside, the three I like to look at first are OPS for hitters, WHIP for pitchers, and tax bracket for weekly columnists.

Todd, Michigan

Reggie, Indiana?? Dang Double Poster fooled you again! Okay, How about I ask a question instead of yelling. Q: Have you noticed that whenever a fielder makes a spectacular play he leads off the next inning??

Alan Schwarz

  (3:34 PM)

Yep -- it happens about one-ninth of the time. Amazing.

Jon (NC)

I need to know when you are gonna finish up because I haven't gotten any work done the last hour and a half!

Alan Schwarz

  (3:35 PM)

Join us tomorrow at baseballamerica.com -- particularly if you are getting fired.

Alan Schwarz

  (3:36 PM)

I think we're going to wrap it up soon, folks. I'll take 5-6 more....

Julie (St. Louis)

Is quality start a valid stat or is it more of an agent's tool like some people suggest?

Alan Schwarz

  (3:37 PM)

As I've said, there are only degrees of validity, and then only in context; it's not one or the other. But I certainly like QS more than wins. It helps to tell you whether the guy pitched well -- not whether his team outscored the other team.

Jason (Columbia, MD)

and the 3 most irrelevant stats would therefore be...?

Alan Schwarz

  (3:39 PM)

I'd say that the most consistently overrated are batting average, wins, and tax brackets for editors.

Phil, Montana

Which cap do you think Mr. Maddux will wear in the HOF?

Alan Schwarz

  (3:39 PM)

SBLC ...... Scott Boras Law Corporation

Mike (NY, NY)

Regarding your HOF pitcher you would like to see in the hall (Blyleven). I happen to think it's a travesty that Jim Kaat is not a hall of famer, what a disgrace!! Would you vote for Kaat?

Alan Schwarz

  (3:41 PM)

Kaat's up there, too, along with Blyleven. That being said, I'd have no problem if neither were in, because I want to see the average talent in there as high as possible. Yeah, some people have been let in who weren't as good (Sutton, for example?) but I don't want to use that as the measuring stick for the future.

Joe (Toronto)

Thanks for answering my question before, but can you PLEASE ANSWER THIS ONE QUESTION. Give me in order your list of Top 10 prospects. PLEASE ANSWER

Alan Schwarz

  (3:42 PM)

Folks, you should know that Joe from Toronto has been the most persistent person out there, asking me this question at least 10 times. Wow! I'm afraid that I'm not a prospects expert, at least compared to my BA colleagues. I'd have to defer to them on prospect rankings. Sorry.....

Paul D, Toronto ON

Batting average is more overrated than RBI?

Alan Schwarz

  (3:43 PM)

RBI has its problems, too, like any stat. But at least it's directly related to scoring runs, while BA misses the points of both walks and extra-base hits. (This has been known, by the way, ever since BA was invented in 1872. It just took over 100 years for the mainstream to catch on.)

Stephen Smith, Albany, NY

Isn't the problem with the 8 pitchers, 4 IP going to be "who gets the win"? I remember when the Big Unit had that huge lead in game 6 of the 2001 Series I felt he had to be left in for 5, since you couldn't deprive him of a WS win . . .

Alan Schwarz

  (3:44 PM)

Yeah, that's a problem, but the team doesn't care about wins for each pitcher, but wins for the team. In fact, it would probably save them money in arbitration. Of course, it would be easier to get a win if you pitched innings 5-8, wouldn't it?

Jay (NYC)

The definition of clutch in the studies I've seen is what bothers me. Often the clutch moments that create impressions with fans happen in the 4th inning or involve NOT doing something, like striking out or hitting into DP's. Anyway to measure this?

Alan Schwarz

  (3:46 PM)

The whole clutch issue can be put into excellent focus by following the Mills system from 1969 detailed in Chapter 4 of my book. I honestly think it's the greatest advance in sabermetric history.

Alan Schwarz

  (3:46 PM)

Well, folks, it's been 2 hours, and I think I'm going to call it an afternoon. I truly appreciate everyone's interest. Hope you enjoy my book, and see everyone again soon.