Chat with Brad Edwards
Welcome to SportsNation! On Monday, resident BCS expert Brad Edwards will drop by to chat about what the latest BCS standings mean to the nation's top teams going forward.
Send your questions now and join Brad in The Show at 3 p.m. ET!
More Brad Edwards: Chats
Brad Edwards (3:12 PM)
Sorry for the delay. Had to do a quick hit on CFB Live. Let's get started.
If at the end of year we have multiple undefeated teams, say Texas, TCU, Boise State, Iowa and Cincinnati, how will the BCS respond? Playoff finally?
Brad Edwards (3:14 PM)
This is easy. The BCS won't respond. There will be more complaining for every undefeated team that's left out of the championship game, but it won't impact the anti-playoff stance of the Presidential Oversight Committee. Eventually, there may be a plus-one or some kind of four-team playoff, but it won't happen as a result of anything that takes place this season.
Bryce (SLC, UT)
How much of TCU's jump over BSU had to do with the human element? How much had to do with TCU's complete domination of BYU?
Brad Edwards (3:16 PM)
TCU made a nice jump in the polls (the human element) because of that dominating win, and it happened at the same time as Boise State had a bad week in the computers because of losses by several previous BSU opponents. That combination is what allowed TCU to take over the "BCS Buster" spot in the standings.
Brad, do you see Iowa slipping in the BCS standings after playing Indiana this week? That is assuming they beat Indiana and the other top teams win this week.
Brad Edwards (3:19 PM)
Indiana won't help Iowa in the computers, and neither will Northwestern the following week. It might be enough of a negative impact to drop the Hawkeyes from No. 1 in the computers, but they could very well retake the top spot if they beat Ohio State on Nov. 14. Regardless, Iowa will continue to be highly ranked in the computer element because of its quality road wins. The issue for the Hawkeyes is the lack of support they have in the polls. This must improve for them to be able to capitalize if Texas loses.
Texas wins out, Iowa wins out and finally gets respect in the polls after a win at Ohio State, jumping past USC, Boise, Cinci, and TCU to number four, while remaining at number 1 in the computers. Who is number three heading into the SEC Championship?
Brad Edwards (3:24 PM)
This is an interesting question. Assuming Florida and Alabama go into the SEC Championship game both unbeaten, they will be the top two teams. If TCU, Boise State and Cincinnati don't lose, but Iowa moves past them into the No. 4 spot in the polls, there's a chance (I repeat, "a chance") that Iowa could gain such an advantage over Texas in the computers that they could be ranked higher in the overall BCS. The remaining schedule won't help Texas get a whole lot stronger in the computers, so the Longhorns need to continue to be impressive and get a good share of the second-place votes in the polls. If Texas ever becomes a distant third in the polls, they could have BCS issues, but I don't see that happening.
How can the media polls have Iowa at 8, yet the computers see them as 1? Close wins should count just as much as big wins, and no one in the top 5 is winning convincingly over strong opponents. The media bias in the polls is getting old.
Brad Edwards (3:27 PM)
Three words: Margin of Victory ... Computers aren't allowed to process it, so Iowa is ranked No. 1. The human element clearly processes it, so Iowa doesn't have as impressive of a profile in the minds of the voters. The "bias" is not only based on the failures of Big Ten teams in big games over the last three or four years, but it's also due to Iowa's narrow wins over Northern Iowa and Arkansas State this season.
Mike W (Chiacgo)
How does Univ of Cincinnati beat a conference rival by 30+ points with a backup quarterback drop 3 spots in the BCS? USC jumped them and they have 1 loss and beat Oregon State at home by less points than UC beat Oregon State on the road.
Brad Edwards (3:32 PM)
A drop in the computers is what caused this to happen, but unlike Boise State, Cincinnati has a good chance to bounce back in the computer rankings over the coming weeks because of teams like West Virginia and Pittsburgh still remaining on the schedule. But don't get your hopes up that UC will jump back over USC without the Trojans losing. Most voters believe USC is a better team, despite the records and the Oregon State comparison, and the polls dictate two-thirds of the BCS formula.
JL (Warrenton, VA)
Is it possible that this year will produce the weakest national champion in recent memory? There are several teams consistently winning ugly but there nowhere seems to be a dominant team.
Brad Edwards (3:36 PM)
It's safe to say that no team is looking like a typical No. 1 at this stage of the season. If Texas (at Oklahoma State) and USC (at Oregon) both lose on Saturday, the only thing standing between Cincinnati, TCU and Boise State and the BCS Championship Game is the Iowa Hawkeyes. And Iowa still has to play at Ohio State. It's not too crazy to think that one of those teams could be playing for the national title. And the way the SEC teams are struggling right now, it's also not crazy to think that the SEC champ could lose that game, especially after more than a month off.
At the end of the day, what are the odds that a BCS bowl does what is right and picks a second non-AQ team when it's going to be held accountable by their advertisers and sponsors?
Brad Edwards (3:42 PM)
I don't think it'll have anything to do with advertisers, but it could happen this year. There's a chance that TCU and Boise State could both finish in the top 5 or 6, and if TCU comes out ahead and gets the automatic bid for the non-AQ teams, Boise has a realistic chance to be offered an at-large bid. There are four at-large spots into the BCS. In this scenario, TCU would have one of them. Odds are good that the SEC and Big Ten will get two of the other three. But if Notre Dame loses again and doesn't finish in the top 14, that gives Boise State a legitimate shot. The Big 12 might not have another team that could be considered, and the ACC and Big East might not have a second team that has a history of selling lots of bowl tickets. That would leave it as Boise State against the second team from the Pac-10, and depending which team that is, BSU would have a chance.
Why is OU still ranked? And do you think they will weasel their way into the Nationl Championship again?
Brad Edwards (3:43 PM)
Are you talking about Oklahoma? And are you drinking at work?
Iowa is number one in the computers. Does it stay that way if they win out?
Brad Edwards (3:46 PM)
I touched on this earlier, but just to clarify ... Iowa might drop from No. 1 during the next two weeks but would likely move back to No. 1 with a win at Ohio State. The only question would be whether the Hawkeyes could withstand the boost given to the SEC Championship Game winner. That's the one team that could possibly supplant Iowa as the No. 1 team in the computers at the end of the year.
What does Alabama have to do to get their passing attack back to the level it was a month ago?
Brad Edwards (3:47 PM)
I'm a BCS analyst, not an offensive coordinator. Sorry I can't help.
Jason (junction city)
Isnt it true that IF ohio state or michigan had the EXACT same results as iowa, they would be in top 3? As well isnt it true as well that IF baylor had the EXACT same results as texas , that baylor would be around 8-10 ?
Brad Edwards (3:52 PM)
Well, if rabbits could fly, then we'd have some serious air traffic control issues. In all seriousness, it's tough to argue with your theory. I can tell you that the computer rankings would be the same, but there's no question that factors like tradition do have an impact on the voters.
Zach (San Diego, CA)
end of the year...one spot left in the championship game (Texas and 1 SEC team lose) who gets in (assuming they win out)...Iowa or USC?
Brad Edwards (3:55 PM)
This could go either way. As of now, advantage USC because of the huge lead they have in the polls. With wins over Oregon and Arizona, USC's computer numbers are sure to improve, but the same can't be said for Iowa's poll numbers if Cincy, TCU and Boise all remain unbeaten. Although unfair to Iowa, some voters certainly have a difficult time shaking what USC has done against Big Ten teams in the last three Rose Bowls. And voters also have the right to excuse the USC loss because Matt Barkley didn't play. Some may be doing that already.
Why does it appear that the BCS championship game will be decided by who was ranked higher in the preseason polls? Shouldn't it be about what you've done throughout the season? If you put a black marker through all the top 10 teams names, and rank them based off of what they have done this year, Iowa would be #1. It's a shame such bias runs college football.
Brad Edwards (3:59 PM)
I'm not sure Iowa would be No. 1, but they'd look just as good as anyone else without the existence of preseason bias. There just isn't a great-looking team right now, and somebody has to be ranked No. 1. Florida probably has that spot due more to last year than this year.
Phil Knight (Beaverton, OR)
Can a 2-loss Oregon team make it to the Rose Bowl?
Brad Edwards (4:01 PM)
Sure, but the second loss better not be to USC. Oregon can lose another game and still win the Pac-10, as long as it doesn't lose to USC or Arizona. Losing to either of those teams could change the tiebreaking scenarios out of Oregon's favor.
Does Oklahoma State really have a chance to beat Texas?
Brad Edwards (4:03 PM)
Did Arkansas really have a chance to beat Florida? Did Tennessee really have a chance to beat Alabama? Probably not, but they almost did anyway. Oklahoma State is playing at home with what is, in theory, a better team than Arkansas and Tennessee have.
Joe (Evergreen Park, IL)
Why is Oklahoma still ranked in the top 25?
Brad Edwards (4:04 PM)
Should anyone really care who's ranked at the back end of the Top 25? Plus, Oklahoma could beat at least half the teams ranked in the Top 25. That probably has something to do with it.
Brad Edwards (4:06 PM)
Gotta run. It was fun, as always. We should have either a lot less or a lot more to talk about next week, depending on whether Texas wins or loses.
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