Chat with Brad Edwards
Welcome to SportsNation! On Monday, resident BCS expert Brad Edwards will drop by to chat about what the latest BCS standings mean to the nation's top teams going forward.
Send your questions now and join Brad Monday at 11:30 a.m. ET!
Brad Edwards (11:32 AM)
Two weeks to go! If there's going to be a major shakeup, you have to figure it would happen this Friday. Let's start with your questions.
Who is most likely to be matched up in the title game if Oregon and Auburn both lose?
Brad Edwards (11:35 AM)
Speaking of a major shakeup, this would be it. You'd have to figure either Boise State or TCU is definitely in (BSU for sure with a comfortable win over Nevada), and there's certainly a decent chance they could play each other. Would be interesting to see if a once-beaten Auburn or another major-conference champ like Wisconsin would get a bump from the voters to try to keep this TCU-Boise matchup from materializing.
Clay (Hanahan, SC)
If Carolina beats Auburn in the SECCG are the Gamecocks locked into the Sugar Bowl via the SEC Championship or can the BCS select the highest ranked SEC school in the BCS instead?
Brad Edwards (11:35 AM)
South Carolina would go to the Sugar as the SEC champ.
when will the BCS tweak its process next - continues to worry me that at least two teams each year don't deserve to play (normally Big East or ACC for the last few but that may change as times go by)
Brad Edwards (11:39 AM)
This season is the first of the current four-year contract for the BCS. As of now, there is no BCS beyond the 2013 season. The negotiations for the next cycle, if there is one, will probably take place in early 2012. At that time, they can make any tweaks that have the support of the conference presidents and commissioners. The one you mention - putting some sort of minimum qualifying standard on AQ-conference champions - is almost certain to be brought up for discussion.
Blake (Crystal River, FL)
Have you evaluated individual computers to see which ones should leapfrog Boise State over TCU this weekend? If so, how many do you project will do so?
Brad Edwards (11:47 AM)
I haven't studied them yet, but I just took a quick glance after reading your question. It's interesting that TCU is at least two spots ahead of Boise in every computer, and LSU is wedged between them in four of the six. If the Tigers win at Arkansas, it's hard to imagine Boise jumping LSU, which means the Broncos will need to make the big jump over TCU from a couple of spots back. Still, I'd be surprised if they don't do it in at least half the computers, which means Boise will have to lose ground in the polls for TCU to have any chance of finishing ahead in the BCS.
Bradley Brakhouse (Nova Scotia Canada)
If Auburn loses at Alabama by less than 4 points and then beats S.C. in SEC Championship, will that scenario put Auburn in the Final 2 ?? Because in my estimation if they get blown out by Alabama, they have no shot ??
Brad Edwards (11:51 AM)
I agree that any chance Auburn has of surviving a loss requires it to be a close loss in Tuscaloosa, probably followed by a comfortable win over South Carolina. If that happens, the Tigers could still be ranked ahead of Boise and TCU in the computers, which would give them a shot if some voters want to see them play for the title. I think this is more likely to happen if Boise either loses or plays a very close game against Nevada.
Blake (Crystal River, FL)
You are the primary reason I watch the BCS Countdown Show. Why don't they give you more time to delve into the computer numbers for the viewers?
Brad Edwards (11:54 AM)
Thanks, Blake, but I feel pretty confident in saying that delving into the computers would cause more fans to tune out than tune in. Having the opinions of the other guys is better for ratings, and I understand that as well as anyone.
I guess Michigan State is the odd team out of the BCS unless Wisconsin or Ohio State lose, correct?
Brad Edwards (11:55 AM)
Michigan State needs the Buckeyes to lose. The only way MSU goes to the Rose Bowl is if it becomes a two-way tie between them and Wisconsin, which would be decided by head-to-head. Anything else would fall to the BCS Standings, which is a battle Sparty won't win.
Brian (Maumee, OH)
If Boise State defeats Nevada, does it truly matter what the score is? Nevada is a top 20 team that blew the doors off of Cal early this year!
Brad Edwards (11:59 AM)
I think this may be the most important question regarding Friday night's game. It seems the only chance TCU has of keeping its lead on Boise in the BCS is for the Broncos to lose poll support. That's only going to happen if BSU loses or doesn't look impressive. I'm sure many voters will consider it impressive enough if Boise just comes out of there with a win, but there are probably many other voters who believe a true national title contender shouldn't struggle with Nevada. I'll be very intrigued to see what happens with the polls on Sunday if Boise State wins by seven points or fewer, especially if it's a game where Nevada looked like the better team.
You mentioned that if Oregon loses, they are out of the mix for the NC game. But, Auburn might be able to withstand the blow and still make it. Right now, Oregon is ahead of Auburn so this seems a bit mixed up. Could you help explain this?
Brad Edwards (12:02 PM)
It really comes down to quality of loss, which has an impact in both the polls and computers. Losing in Tuscaloosa isn't nearly as bad as losing at home to Arizona or losing to a sub-.500 Oregon State team. Oregon would be penalized more for its loss than Auburn would (assuming Auburn's loss is to Alabama and is a competitive game).
Brad (Beverly, Ma)
Any chance Boston college contends for a BCS championship in my lifetime. Im 31.
Brad Edwards (12:03 PM)
Eat healthy and exercise, my friend
Brad, why do you think that Boise State didn't jump TCU this past week? Do think there is some sort of pressure to keep them from the title game?
Brad Edwards (12:05 PM)
Is this some sort of conspiracy theory? Boise extended its lead on TCU in the polls. The computers can't look at margin of victory, however, so they just see a home win over Fresno, which isn't all that impressive without the 51-0 score. If BSU wins by 14 or more at Nevada and doesn't jump TCU next Sunday, then we'll talk conspiracy theories.
If the BCS is eliminated in favor of a 16 team playoff, what would you do for a living?
Brad Edwards (12:08 PM)
I'd do the same thing Joe Lunardi does for a 60-something team playoff in basketball. There would still be ratings involved in the at-large process, and I'd keep breaking it down. For the record, I think that BC fan will see his team contend for a BCS title before you'll see a 16-team playoff. That's too many teams and would absolutely ruin college football's regular season!
Do you ever feel like slapping the other analysts on the BCS Countdown Show? I feel like Craig James has no idea what he is talking about and changes his mind several times during each show.
Brad Edwards (12:11 PM)
Craig and Robert took a lot of hits to the head from playing running back all those years. You have to cut them some slack if they forget what they said the previous week.
Marc (Malden, MA)
How much is the VA Tech loss to James Madison, hurting Boise State?
Brad Edwards (12:15 PM)
Looking back on it now, that may be the worst loss of the season in college football. James Madison finished 6-5 and won only one game by more than seven points. Without that loss, we might not even be having this Boise vs TCU discussion, because Virginia Tech would be ranked right up there with Wisconsin, Stanford and LSU.
Brad Edwards (12:16 PM)
Last question. Gotta run.
If Oregon faces Boise St. or TCU in the title game and Stanford wins out, what are the chances Stanford gets a Rose Bowl bid?
Brad Edwards (12:20 PM)
Despite some reports that the Rose might voluntarily take the other non-AQ team to fulfill its contractual obligation for this four-year cycle, I really don't see that happening. It makes sense to take an undefeated TCU or Boise this year to possibly avoid having a one-loss non-AQ in the near future, but I have a hard time imagining the Rose passing up a Big Ten vs Pac-10 matchup when there's a highly-ranked Pac-10 team out there that only lost at the No. 1 team in the nation and has a QB who might be the first pick in the NFL Draft. We'll see how it plays out.
Brad Edwards (12:21 PM)
Thanks, everyone. Brace yourselves for Friday. We could have a lot to talk about next Monday.