Chat with AJ Mass
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AJ Mass (10:59 AM)
Good morning one and all. Monday has arrived, and with it, another hour of fantasy sports chattage. What's on your mind? Baseball? NCAA? Reality show eliminations? Second cup of coffee in hand... who is up first?
Chase Utley (Philly)
How far am I dropping? Behind Kinsler and Dustin P? WHould you draft Kemp or me?
AJ Mass (11:01 AM)
I think you're going to have to start considering a definite drop. It's one thing when the team plays it cautious with an injury in early spring, but when the player himself starts sounding worried... Kemp over Utley for sure.
Jason Jeffrey (Fort Lauderdale)
IS miggy a guy you should take in the 2nd round if hes still there?
AJ Mass (11:02 AM)
Miggy is a guy you should take in the first round.
Who would you draft higher out of last year's super rookies: Heyward or Posey? Thanks A.J.!!
AJ Mass (11:03 AM)
Posey for me, though because you have to select 5 OF in most leagues, I can understand why Heyward's ADP might be higher.
Rasmus vs. Stubbs - who'd you rather have?
AJ Mass (11:04 AM)
Stubbs, but I'm not feeling super exuberant about it.
Gots me the number quatro pick in a keepa league. Brauny or Tulo? Does Tulo drop because of his heel?
AJ Mass (11:05 AM)
I like Braun in this spot better than Tulo. Durability is certainly a factor.
J Upton or Cutch in a Keeper League? 3rd Round.
AJ Mass (11:06 AM)
You obviously haven't read my article on the Pirates in 30Q... I'm drinking the McCutchen kool-aid.
Thoughts on drafting multiple players from one squad in a head to head points league? Would adding Arod to my keepers of Tex and Cano be too many eggs in one team's basket?
AJ Mass (11:08 AM)
You do run the risk of the Yankees facing a hot staff, and suddenly you've got three goose eggs for a series. It's not as deadly as in the NFL, but it certainly can bite you. Still, if A-Rod is best value... you take him.
Martin Prado (Hotlanta)
For the positional previews in the draft kit, can you explaining how I ended up being "Top 10 Player I Wouldn't Draft" for both second AND third base?
AJ Mass (11:11 AM)
You qualify for both, and clearly both JQ (3B article) and I (2B article) agree.
Belt is off to a strong start this spring. What does this mean for Huff now and later in the year?
AJ Mass (11:12 AM)
I don't think Huff need worry... if Belt makes team (and that's still an 'if') Huff goes to LF and it's Pat the Bat who has to sweat it.
A-rod or Youk for 3B (in my league Youk is 3B eligible after only 5 games)?....thanks
AJ Mass (11:14 AM)
I'm more inclined to go with A-Rod on this one.
Decided to wait on Catcher, but can't pick which one: Miguel Montero, Jorge Posada, John Jaso, Russell Martin, or J.P. Arencibia?
AJ Mass (11:15 AM)
I really like Arencibia, especially after Jays got -then got rid of - Napoli.
I keep hearing about the Roy boys and Cliff Lee in Philly, but not much about Cole Hamels. What type of year do you see coming from this underrated arm?
AJ Mass (11:16 AM)
I hardly think he's underrated. In fact, I think if anything he's overrated. He's my least fave of the Phlood, but still I have him ranked in my Top 20.
Brian Wilson (San Fran)
AJ...did you see me pitch yesterday? How awesome is the beard? Admit it....quite impressive right?
AJ Mass (11:16 AM)
No. I did not. But you've got nothing on Evan Fjeld's moustache.
Would you keep Strasburg in a long term keeper league? It will waste a roster spot this season, but I was worst team in the league last year, not gonna be much better this year.
AJ Mass (11:18 AM)
Might as well keep him for now, see how your team does -- and if you exceed your expectations and need the roster spot, you can always trade him/cut him later on.
thoughts on russel martin? turnaround in NY?
AJ Mass (11:19 AM)
Bleah. With Cervelli hurt, I can see Montero up sooner rather than later.
Jayson Werth, final 2011 line? Is he worth rivera, if you have 4 closers?
AJ Mass (11:21 AM)
Werth can be a top 20 hitter if all falls right for him in Washington. With four closers, that's certainly worth getting rid of one of them, even Mo.
If Jake Peavy is able to start the season in the rotation and Thornton closes, what becomes of Sales? Setup? Minors?
AJ Mass (11:21 AM)
Sale will be the setup man, and IMO, the closer by September.
Same choice every draft: Kinsler or Brandon Phillips?
AJ Mass (11:22 AM)
I'm a Brandon guy, given the choice of the two.
Thoughts on Cliff Pennington? Is he batting leadoff?
AJ Mass (11:24 AM)
The injury is going to slow him down a bit this spring, and hopefully he can come out of the gate strong. I do like him a lot, but expect him to bat ninth.
Your Wack. Kinsler is a 30/30 threat that can possibly score and drive in a 100. Phillips can't touch those numbers. I bet you never win in any of your leagues. Just wack>>
AJ Mass (11:26 AM)
Here are some numbers: 120, 130, 121, 144, 103. That Ian's GP over the last five... I'm not taking that risk when 20-20 is a lock.
Give me your take on Tsuyoshi Nishioka? With the SS position so thin, I am looking for a real sleeper. Does T-Nish, as I like to call him, have any pop?
AJ Mass (11:27 AM)
He's going to be playing 2B, so I doubt he'll help SS depth any... I'm not sure to expect more than .270 and some steals.
Better pitcher since they are ranked around the same area...Danks or Lilly?
AJ Mass (11:28 AM)
Not a lot of space between them as you said... I'm looking for Danks to end up on top.
Jhonny Peralta (Dtown)
Good day, AJ. Would you rather take me or JJ Hardy as a late round SS? h2h points league
AJ Mass (11:29 AM)
Same stats, essentially, so I go Peralta.
Where are you taking Ellsbury this year?
AJ Mass (11:31 AM)
I'm probably not... way different circumstances, including likelihood he bats 9th as well as Carl's presence. And that's before we get into the issue that he's proven himself to be an risk due to his inability to heal quickly.
In a league with Quality Starts instead of Wins would you draft pitchers sooner than normal or later?
AJ Mass (11:32 AM)
It might change up the order of my picks a bit, but not when I take them.
Follow-up to Ellsbury question...Isn't Brett Gardner essentially the same player, and can be taken much, much later in the draft?
AJ Mass (11:33 AM)
No, I think Ellsbury is a much better hitter and has double-digit home run potential. Gardner is a lot closer to Juan Pierre in terms of power, but with about a 50 points lower BA.
Brian (NY, NY)
What do you expect from Sandoval this year?
AJ Mass (11:35 AM)
Ballpark of 18-65-.280
On the topic of Ellsbury/Garnder...Same can be said for taking Torres later instead of Pagan?
AJ Mass (11:36 AM)
Hey, once you get into a draft, you have to do the dance of "do I wait" and pass on Player A and grab Player B six rounds later, etc. As long as you have confidence in your personal ranks and tiers, you should be able to roll with the punches, and get to what's real.
Final numbers from Heyward this year will be?
AJ Mass (11:38 AM)
Basically same as last year. I think there's growth potential over a few years, but needs to hit LHP better before I expect a huge surge.
Johnny Chimpo (Vermont)
Are there any lower-tier SS's who have a chance to get 30 steals this season?
AJ Mass (11:38 AM)
A healthy Pennington and a very lucky Theriot perhaps.
AJ - what's sadder - the B, C and D list celebrities on Trump's show (although a Canseco - Richard Hatch fight seems oddly appropriate), or the fact that Lil Russel will never win Survivor?
AJ Mass (11:40 AM)
The sadder thing? The people on Trump's show who actually believe they are celebrities... that's right NeNe... I'm looking at you.
Career BA: Ellsbury .291, Gardner .268. 50 points is a bit of an exaggeration.
AJ Mass (11:41 AM)
The 50 points referred to Juan Pierre hitting .300 this season and Gardner .250.
Freeman vs. D.Lee? - obviously bottom of the barrel choices - who'd you rather?
AJ Mass (11:43 AM)
I think you're exaggerating a bit on "bottom of barrel" -- D. Lee should get around 20 HR, and Freeman is a mystery. Rookies are always risky -- even the highly touted ones. I think I'd take Lee's stats and be happy for 2011.
Mitch (Rutland Vermont)
AJ. Love your comments but in a Non H2H league does it really matter how many games Kinsler plays? He had over 500 Ab in 2 of the last 3 years, had 18 and 31 HR in the 2 years over 500 AB, and over 25 SB in both those 2 years. Would you change your opinion on Phillips vs Kinsler if non H2H?
AJ Mass (11:45 AM)
There's still an element of risk... plus I'm not sure the average can stick if the power returns... AND he may be leading off this season, which also perhaps cuts back on RBIs.
How worried should we be about Morales? Just a few weeks at the start or an all year thing?
AJ Mass (11:47 AM)
Just a guess: I'd say he misses April for extended spring training and then joins team sometime in May.
Thought on Ike Davis? I think he is a big time sleeper.
AJ Mass (11:48 AM)
You'll get my thoughts on that in full later this week in NYM 30Q article... short answer is that Chris from ATL is right.
Most valuable player in nba fantasy playoffs?
AJ Mass (11:49 AM)
Not Allen Iverson. Sorry, NBA is not my bailiwick. Once they graduate from the Madness, I'm out.
In my keeper league I can take either D Wright or M Cabrera with my 3rd pick, Im already keeping Tulo and Pujols. Who do I pick?
AJ Mass (11:50 AM)
I can see the argument for Wright, given you already have 1B filled, but if you use a CO, you take Miggy and get 3B later.
Can you rank these guys for this season...Price, Latos, Liriano
AJ Mass (11:51 AM)
Price, Liriano, Latos.
You on the Gallardo band wagon?
AJ Mass (11:52 AM)
Sorry. I'm less on the YoGa bandwagon than the Lady GaGa bandwagon...
over / under on a 200/200 season from Cole Hamels?
AJ Mass (11:54 AM)
Under. But only because they'll have no need to have all four guys go over 200 IP, not that his K/9 won't be around 9.
can someone tell me if detwiler is worth a shot now? Nobody wants to answer the question! Thanks AJ!
AJ Mass (11:56 AM)
Is he a better last round gamble than Gorzelanny? Sure, why not. But unless you're in a deep NL-only league, 5th starter on the Nats isn't a whoop-it-up neighborhood.
Need help. In keeper league I'm torn between the future of Heyward with a 12th rounder versus the value of Stubbs in the 19th round. what do you think?
AJ Mass (11:58 AM)
I'd go with Heyward. Like I said, I think 20-10 is what you'll get in 2011, and it could easily be 25-15.
What would Francisco's final numbers be now that it appears he is the starting RF for Phillies?
AJ Mass (12:00 PM)
I think he ends up with 120 GP... 18 HR, .265 BA.
AJ Mass (12:01 PM)
The clock on the wall just hollered at me. That means it's time to go. Thanks for the chat. If I didn't get to you, find me on the Twitter. I'll be back on Friday, and until then... good luck and may the odds be EVER in your favor!