Chat with KC Joyner
Welcome to SportsNation! On Thursday, ESPN Insider KC Joyner, will be here to answer your NFL questions.
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
Gisele (via mobile)
How can you expect my husband to throw the ball AND run this chat for you?
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
She's right. Running a chat ain't easy.
Is Hakeem Nicks the best wideout in Football?
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
The way Mario Manningham played during the postseason, the question should be is Nicks even the best WR on his team.
Tommy (the big easy)
KC, whats your thoughts on the redskins QB options should they sign peyton, flynn, or orton Or trade up and draft RG3?
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
RG3 if the price is right.
T.A. Sedlak (Madison, WI)
Forgive me if someone recently asked you this. I've missed some chats. Last off season you said that Flynn hadn't shown enough to prove himself yet. Did the one game he played in this year help him at all? How big of a risk do you think he is?
KC Joyner (4:04 PM)
The nutshell take on Flynn is that not too much emphasis should be put on the Detroit game. That contest said more about the Lions secondary than it did Flynn.
Max (San Fran, CA) [via mobile]
We all know that the 49ers have an amazing defense and special teams. Would u say that adding Peyton gives them enough to win the big game next year?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
The 2011 version of Alex Smith was in many ways just as productive as the 2010 version of Peyton Manning. SF needs to stick with Smith and develop his talents. He's got top 10 QB potential and is not far from being at that level right now.
Scott (New Rochelle, NY)
Does Shoelace (Denard Robinson) have a breakout season for the Wolverines this year?
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
He does if they find ways to keep him healthy. That's part of why the Wolverines are said to be thinking about diversifying their offense.
Jim (St. Louis)
If the Rams end up wanting to draft Blackmon, do they still resign Lloyd?
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
Brandon Lloyd has been productive only when he has worked with Josh McDaniels. If St. Louis ends up with Blackmon, they shouldn't go too far to trying to keep Lloyd.
Josh (Washington, DC)
How well do you think Robert Mathis could convert to being a pass rushing 3-4 OLB?
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
Mathis has tremendous pass rushing ability and could ostensibly find a way to make it as a 3-4 rush LB. Still, his best fit is as a 4-3 DE.
Really? Hakeem Nicks had 28 catches, 444 yds and 4 TDs in the playoffs. Manningham had 13 catches, 189 yds and 3 TDs in the playoffs.
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
That was a bit facetious. I've been touting Nicks as a top 10 WR for a while now. His 2011 campaign really wasn't as good as he is capable of performing, but that still places him just out on the outside of the top 10 WR level.
Manningham the best on the team? Come on now, one great catch does not a better player make. Nicks dominated all throughout the playoffs, often with double coverage.
KC Joyner (4:10 PM)
Can you guys not take a joke? And don't forget, the chatters a couple of months ago had demoted Manningham to working at a Burger King drive-thru in my basement. I'm trying to do all I can to get him promoted out of that job.
Sean McKenzie (Van Wert, OH)
Hey KC, thanks for taking my question. I keep hearing that we shouldnt be surprised if Heckert pulls the trigger on CB Claiborne from LSU at the 4th pick. If he is so bent on getting someone to play next to Haden, wouldnt it be better to sign Brent Grimes, who is young, can play man and zone, and a solid open field tackler, instead of using a high pick on defense when we badly need offense? I personally think Blackmon should be our pick. Who would you rather have Grimes or Claiborne?
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
The thing about Claiborne is that he really is more of a big ballhawk CB than a shutdown CB. He had a YPA last year in the low 7-yard range, and if that number increases at the NFL level, it will make him a bit of a target. Grimes has posted 5-6 YPA totals and is better in coverage, so it depends on if Cleveland wants a second shutdown CB or a ballhawk.
Oh no your comments have ignited another WR debate LOL
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
It's funny, there were some nasty comments posted before the chat began that referenced previous WR discussions. It seems to be a sore spot.
Why don't I hear more about Seattle as a landing spot for Peyton? Seems like a great fit both ways to me.
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
That type of talk seems to be happening more and more. If Peyton is healthy (and that still seems to be a big question mark), he can give Seattle a shot at winning the NFC.
Do you know anything about VT cornerback Jayron Hosley? Everybody loves Claiborne, Janoris Jenkins and the guy from Nebraska, but Hosley was a beast all year for the Hokies.
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
Haven't had a chance to do a full breakdown on Hosley yet but he is definitely a ballhawk CB with tons of big play potential.
Whew, Scientist, you almost had me going there. Speaking of Manningham: 1) should the Giants retain him at market value, 2) what offenses would be a good fit for his skill set around the league?
KC Joyner (4:16 PM)
It may depend on Cruz. If the Giants want to reward him for his performance, it will be hard to pay him and Manningham and Nicks over the long haul. Manningham's skills are vast enough that he would really be a good fit in just about any offense, but a vertical pass offense is his best fit.
Tommy (hotel california)
KC, give me 3 first round talents that wouldnt surprise you if they fall in the draft ?
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
One that comes to mind immediately is Kendall Wright. Just broke down his 2011 season while researching the RG3 can be the next Cam Newton article and found some weaknesses in Wright's game.
Obviously the Eagles need to upgrade Linebacker and Safety. If they drafted Luke Kuechely and signed Stephen Tulloch and Laron Landry, would they be a Super Bowl contender next year? Or is that impossible with Vick at the helm
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
The Eagles led the league in sack/int percentage (i.e. the % of time they notched a sack or int on defense). All they really need is to stop giving up those huge plays. If they upgraded at LB & safety (and the moves you suggest would be upgrades), they are a bona fide Super Bowl contender.
How would you rank these unrestricted FA WR's? 1 through 5! Stevie Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Mario Manningham, and Marques Colston.
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
Funny you should ask that, as that is the article I will be researching this weekend. It will be posted on Tuesday and will include those five plus two others.
KC....with the new rookie pay scale do you believe 1st rounders are worth more (Jimmy Johnson scale) than they were a few years ago? Their signability is easier now.
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
You are spot with that assessment, Rich. First-round rookies are worth more now because they cost less (which is kind of ironic).
Vance (Nashville,TN) [via mobile]
Do you think the cowboys should try to get a rookie QB this year so he could learn behind Romo or sign a veteran QB like flynn?
KC Joyner (4:22 PM)
A vet would be the best choice, as Dallas has a Super Bowl window that should be open for the next 2-3 years. Would hate to see one of those years knocked out because the rookie backup couldn't keep the team in contention if Romo were hurt for a time.
Would you please comment on what is looking like a disaster happening in Tampa Bay. No one wants to come help coach this team with Greg Schiano. We seem to be looking at guys whos previous experience has not been good in the NFL. Former offensive coordinators who have not had any success in their rankings. Even college coaches wont even come down. What is happening here? Even guys out of work like Butch Davis arent biting.
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
There isn't a lot more to say than what you just said, Patrick. The Tampa situation does not look good.
Why do most pundits have Vontaze Burfict slipping in the first round? Burfict was a top-5 recruit in high school and is by far-and-away the best LB in the draft. I say top 10 for sure.
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
Some of it probably has to do with his perceived volatility. Teams like to sign players who they figure will play well week to week and Burfict is perceived to be not quite that consistent.
Mickey (St. Louis)
I say the Rams need to select Blackmon instead of Kalil with the second overall pick and then pick up some Off. Linemen in the later rounds to compete for a starting position. What say you?
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
The issue is that Blackmon had a subpar senior season. His YPA was only slightly higher than the composite YPA totals of the other top WRs on the OSU squad. That gives reason to think he isn't quite going to be up to Green/Jones rookie year impact WR status. I'd probably take Kalil.
Scott (Northglenn, CO)
Hey, KC, did you see that hold Brian Waters had in the SB? (stirring the pot)...
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
Sure did. And smiled when it happened.
Have you broken down Andrew Luck film yet? Clear top player or do you like RG3 better?
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
Just got done with a Luck analysis for the upcoming issue of ESPN The Magazine. Can't give the write-up away early, but suffice it to say that the tape review showed some weaknesses in Luck's game that casts some doubt on the thought that he is the next John Elway.
Go out on a limb KC the starting QB for the Dolphins next year will be?
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
Flynn. The Fins won't want to wait until the draft to see if they can fix their QB issue there.
BUT KC HE MADE THE PRO BOWL HES THE BEST LINEMAN EVER
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
It's funny, he actually had a better season that what I said about him a few weeks back. Having said that, he was still quite inconsistent, especially in the running game and it wasn't a shock to see the Giants find a way to test him.
Tommy (peyton's head)
If Luck doesnt have 12 10+ win seasons, 2 superbowls(1 victory), and 4 nfl MVPs hes a bust right?
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
That's part of the issue with Luck. The expectations are so incredibly high for him that even if he ends up being a really good but not elite QB, he'll be seen as a bust.
Packers went from top 5 defenses in 09/10 to dead last this past year. How do they get back on track? Still a lot of talent on that side of the ball.
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
The lockout probably hurt the Packers as much as anyone. There was a Magazine article at the beginning of the season that had a player noting that teams weren't able to use as many blitz packages because the lockout kept them from getting fully up to speed. GB lives and dies with the blitz, so that more than likely really hurt them. Give the Pack a full offseason and things should get back to normal.
Scott (Northglenn, CO)
So are the obvious RG III and Vick comparisons accurate, or who would you compare the Baylor product to?
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
He's like Vick except that he protects the ball a whole lot better. Bad thing is he also looks like he could have the same durability issues as Vick.
Have you broken down Mark Barron from Alabama yet? What do you think of him as a player?
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
He was very good in coverage (low 5 YPA if memory serves correct). Like his NFL prospects a lot.
Tom Brady (New England)
Wow I didnt know I was a big loser now wonder if BB will release me
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
Amazing that Brady is taking that much grief. Five Super Bowl appearances ain't what they used to be.
Hey KC, In terms of the Gmen thriving as the undersog--Where do you see them heading into next season? A 5th or 6th seed Wild Card team and the most dangerous playoff team or a 1st round bye like they were after their last SB championship? Thanks!
KC Joyner (4:35 PM)
I hope they are still an underdog, as then it would be easy to keep writing the "Giants are underrated" articles. But, the truth is they will almost certainly be seen as NFC East favorites now.
Kurtis (Houston, TX)
Is Arian the best running back in the game right now? He finished 5th in rushing this year, about 375 yards behind 1st place MJD. However he didn't play 15 total quarters (Almost 4 games), split a lot of games with Ben Tate, had top 5 in total TDs for all RB and played a huge role in the reception game. Not to forget he lost the best FB in the NFL last year (Leach) and played with several who consistently fought injuries - and finally, when Schaub went down, he basically finished the season in a one-dimensional office.
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
A case can be made for Foster, especially because some of the other great RBs (Peterson & Forte) missed games as well.
tommy (hurry my boss is coming)
whats your thoughts on boykin and charles from georgia?
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
Haven't done much on Boykin. Think Charles is highly overrated.
Do you think Greg Little can emerge as a true #1 wideout?
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
If he has RG3 throwing him the football, absolutely.
Am I crazy for liking RGIII over Luck? The games I watched Luck play did not impress me at all, including the USC game which was supposed to be his statement game, while Griffin was outstanding in big games vs. Texas, Oklahoma, and TCU
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
It all depends on what type of offense someone wants to run. RG3 operates best in a wide open pass offense, while Luck seems to work best with a pro-style, vertical pass to get ahead and run the ball to win offense.
Do you see the Dolphins going after any of Indy's FA's like Mathis, Wayne or Garcon to help sweeten the pot for Manning to choose them?
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
Maybe, but Manning would probably be most impressed with a big number next to the contract dollar amount.
Who is more deserving of the whopper FA contract: Brandon Carr or Mario Williams? Also can I get a Whopper, no pickles, from the basement drive-thru?
KC Joyner (4:40 PM)
Williams. Carr is good but Williams is elite. And Mario's not in at the moment, as he is trying to figure out which team is going to sign him to a huge $ deal. That means the drive-thru is unmanned at the moment and the line of customers is going around the block.
Do you see any truth to the rumor that the dolphins might be looking to trade B. Marshall this offseason?
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
Marshall hasn't exactly lived up to expectations (or at least what seemed to be the perceived expectations going in), so it wouldn't be a total shock if the Fins were thinking of shopping him.
I hear the Colts fired the Polians because they favored drafting RG3 over A.Luck?
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
Would find it hard to believe that Irsay would fire his lead personnel people over one possible future disagreement.
Do you like Mario to stay at OLB, or is he better off going back to 4-3 DE?
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
OLB, but Wade Phillips will almost certainly have him alternate between those roles in the same way he had Ware do that in Dallas.
now that football season is over will you please talk more hockey cause so tired of everything being basketball.there are lots of hockey fans out there like myself..thank you go flyers....
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
Well, Mrs. Scientist is getting a bit back into hockey of late, so throwing in the occasional hockey question would be more than welcome.
Do you think that, over the past decade, the poor state of the AFC East has contributed to the Patriots long-term success? The best QB that the Phins, Bills or Jets had during that time was Chad Pennington! If the Pats switched divisions with the Ravens, are we talking about a Ravens dynasty?
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
The Patriots certainly haven't been happy playing the Jets the past few years, and Miami's record against them has been fairly good as well. Having in-division struggles hasn't kept NE from winning the division and that would probably have been the case even in another division.
bob shefelton (kansas)
i am a redskin fan from back when sonny and billy were the QBs,is payton going to the redskins?
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
Gut says no if Washington thinks it can land RG3 in the draft.
Cruz stated "he'd like to get paid" which I beluieve the Gmen will oblige to...What kind of terms are we looking at here?
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
He's going to want elite WR money, but the Giants will counter by saying he's only had one good season. They will rightfully think that he could be a flash in the pan and won't want to pay him the same kind of dollars that top wideouts who have posted multiple big seasons get.
KC, does Mark Sanchez make it through the season?
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
Make it through the season how? Injury-wise? Benching? Without having a UFC-style fight with Holmes?
Thoughts on Brandon Weeden?
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
Let's put it this way. Rookie QBs of late have proven it is possible to get out of the gate quickly. If Weeden can do that, he's got at least a 4-5 year window to perform. That's more than enough performance time to justify an early draft pick on.
Do you think the Giants/Pats are the best teams going into next year?
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
At the moment, yes, but FA & the draft will have a lot to say about that. It wouldn't be surprising if Baltimore found a way to move past NE by the time all is said and done.
KC, early pick for next year's Superbowl?
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
Green Bay and Baltimore. But I reserve the right to change my mind after FA and the draft.
Im just saying, the Patriots plow their divisional schedule every year. This is unprecedented in the NFL. Since 2001, Pats are:15-7 vs the Dolphins17-7 vs the Jets20-2 vs the BillsI think that if they played a tougher division, they would not be the perennial contender that they are.
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
Let's say they played against the Ravens and Steelers and those numbers moved to more like .500 (the ones against the Fins and Jets). It's a nine-game difference over the course of 11 seasons, which is not enough to say that NE would fall short of the playoffs.
Robert Griffin III (Far From Cleveland)
Is it just me or have the Browns ruined every QB they have touched since they came back inot the League? They could all have been Busts could they? I personally think the Browns should pick up a WR and an O Linemen with thier 2 1st round picks and maybe pick up somebody like Wheedon with the 4th pick in the 2nd round.
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
I've got a lot of faith in Shurmur and can't quite hold him responsible for where Colt McCoy is today. McCoy was never that good at Texas and is a mid-range NFL QB at best. RG3 has elite talent and Shurmur could do a lot more with this offense with Griffin as the pilot.
Being the Jets are locked into long term deals are have committed to Holmes now, it doesn't appear that have a lot of room to make major moves. With that said, I can't see this team being any better than 6-8th in the AFC and on the outside looking in come playoff time...Your thoughts?
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
The draft is deep enough at WR that NY should be able to upgrade at that position even with committing to Holmes. NY could also upgrade at other offensive positions through FA and the draft. That would help solve the personnel issues but still would not resolve the team chemistry issues.
Peter (Nacogdoches, TX)
The Texans seem to need a few areas, but WR & OLB seem to be the biggest need, especially if Mario leaves. What are some realistic free agent add-ons/replacements for both of those positions for the Texans?
KC Joyner (5:00 PM)
The WR class is deep both in FA and the draft. A lot of who they get will depend on which WRs are franchised tagged. Mario would be a great add (he and Andre could combine to be the best 1-2 WR combo in the league).
Are people going to stop paying WRs big money? WRs have been flourishing from the draft more and more in the last few years, so isn't that safer than paying an aging WR ie a Holmes?
KC Joyner (5:02 PM)
They may only stop paying top WRs big money if they are able to get the Jones/Green types who can produce from day 1. It still takes most WRs a few years to get up to speed and the vet WRs often don't have that lead-in time. Well, the hour has flown by but it's now time to hit the road and spend some time with my wife and kids. Quick note - the TFS material is always posted on Twitter @KCJoynerTFS. Hope to see you all here next week!