Chat with KC Joyner
Welcome to SportsNation! On Thursday, ESPN Insider KC Joyner, will be here to answer your NFL questions.
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
I have Jamaal Charles as my #1 overall player in a PPR league. What say you, KC?
KC Joyner (4:01 PM)
That is a very interesting way of looking at it. I'd probably still rate Peterson higher if only because there are many reasons to think he can hit the 2K level again. Charles had a great GBYPA last year and will catch the ball a lot in a Reid offense, so a top 5 ranking is definitely not out of the question.
Gray Hairs (Atlanta)
The old man has another Fantasy question, I am in a 16 team, 3 keeper league with a flex with standard scoring. I have to decide on Megatron (no brainer), Dez, D. Thomas and DMC. Running backs are a premium but keeping DMC over those WRs is tough. Your thoughts please?
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
The WR position is a LOT deeper than the RB position this year. Got to keep all of the quality running backs you can, so keep DMC.
Cowboys fan (Tx)
About what time frame does your draft kit come out at late June early July? Will it follow same concept as last years blue green yellow red rankings?
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
The draft guide looks like it is slated for a late June release date. It will once again have the color grade scale and will have some new and interesting metrics as well.
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
Should have a new site with pre-order pricing ready to go by some time next week.
KC, What are your thoughts on Doug Whaley being named the new GM of the Buffalo Bills? He has worked with some great talent evaluators through the yrs. With Mickey Loomis in SEA, Kevin Colbert in PIT, and Buddy Nix with BUF! Do you like this move by the Bills?
KC Joyner (4:04 PM)
Sure do. He's got an eye for talent and will likely make very good use of the Bills new analytical department.
Megatron >>>>>>> Wallace
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
Let's see, that's seven greater than signs. Got to think that number will drop off a lot this year, as Tannehill and the Fins offense will make a lot better usage of Wallace than the Steelers did the past year and a half.
Does Adrian Peterson have the best combo of speed and power any RB ever has? Last season he had 27 20+ yard rushes, the most ever. Hes had 2 seasons with 20 20 yard rushes and nobody else has had 2. Last season he had over 1100 yards after first contact, by far the most in the league. Hes also 6ft1 219lbs. He seems like the perfect RB.
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
He's by far the best RB in the NFL Today. He led the league both in GBYPA (good blocking YPA) and BBYPA (bad blocking YPA). He's the first back to do that in the many years I've been tracking those metrics.
Really enjoyed the TFS article on Rolando Mcclain from 2010, good scouting eye. What do you think of Fredrick addition to Dallas OL?
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
He'll be an upgrade but the big issue for the Cowboys offense isn't the offensive line - it's the playcalling. They aren't letting Romo take chances often enough and he isn't going to reach his full potential until they do so.
Most accurate QB on passes 15 yds downfield or more (and how can this stat be adjusted to compensate for weather and domes?)
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
One issue in compensating for weather is that weather can change throughout a game. It would be a really good idea to do bad weather splits for players even with that limitation.
Whats going to hold Jennings back more, injuries or Ponder?
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
Injuries. Ponder has the arm to hit downfield throws but it's hard to do that when the team has no downfield threats. Ponder will take big steps forward from his last in the league in vertical YPA showing last year.
Scott (Northglenn, CO)
Best combo of speed and power in an RB EVER? Eric Dickerson and Bo have to at least be in the convo...
KC Joyner (4:10 PM)
As does Jim Brown. Peterson is a great RB but he's got some work to do to rank as the best ever.
What are your thoughts on the Bills rookie QB EJ Manuel? He looks to have very similar traits too Cam Newton IMO? Big(6-5), strong arm, mobile etc..... Do you think they should play him from day 1 or groom him?
KC Joyner (4:11 PM)
In general, getting on the field as soon as possible is a good idea. Exceptions would be in cases like Elway (he wasn't ready because he was still figuring out the incredibly complex Reeves playbook) but given the Bills overall circumstances, unless something comes up, Manuel should be out from Day 1.
Isn't downfield passing, or lack thereof, more a product of anticipation + field vision compared to arm strength? Seems to me any NFL QB can throw a 50 yard pass.
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
It's definitely a lot more than strength. Accuracy might be as valuable as any other trait.
Scott (Northglenn, CO)
How did the Bills Oline rate last year as far as good blocking rate? Will that drop off signifcantly? I see that as the only thing that can hold CJ Spiller back...
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
Believe it or not, the Bills rank first in the league in good blocking rate. They had issues pass blocking but they could mash front sevens quite effectively last year. Don't see them repeating as the top team but don't see a huge drop-off in their future.
Chris Fiegler (Latham,NY)
Who do you think will be the Best NFL Offensive & Defensive Rookies of 2013?
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
Tough call. I'll take Austin on offense and Lotulelei on D.
Frank Drebbin (thinking of baseball)
Nice beaver! Thanks, I just had it stuffed!...Doug Martin a sleeper for #1 RB in fantasy? Plays all 3 downs adn gets back 2 All-Pro guards who got hurt last year...
KC Joyner (4:16 PM)
The return of Frank Drebbin! We need more questions like that. I initially ranked Martin No. 3 at RB in the ESPN Fantasy Football Rankings summit. The big issue for Martin is the TB O line (it ranked next to last in GBR) but the returning starters up front should fix that. Definitely have him rated as a high RB1.
I have seen a few other writers on this site say they think Fitz is easily a top 10, proably top 5 WR this year. I know the Cards QB play was miserable last year, but is Palmer really that big of an upgrade?
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
Put it this way - from a fantasy football perspective, Palmer racked up more than his share of games that would place him as a top 10 talent at that position. He's not a dominant QB but the Cards QB play after Kolb went down was simply atrocious. He is that big of an upgrade.
Adrian Peterson drafted in the second round of your ESPN fantasy league draft last year was a great pick-up even though it was mocked at the time!
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
Peterson's draft stock kept moving up as the preseason progressed, as it started to become more clear that he was going to be able to start in Week 1.
How were Demarco Murray's GBYPA numbers last year? DAL OL GBYPA%?
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
Murray had a 6.0 GBYPA last year, which ranked tied for 36th. Dallas O line had a 43.0% GBR, ranked 20th. Room for improvement in both areas.
Rich (New York)
Thoughts on Geno Smith and the Jets draft?
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
All things considered, Smith's numbers weren't that impressive last year. He's had the recurring questions about his maturity and is going to a team that seems to embrace controversy in all the wrong ways. This has a look of potential disaster written all over it.
Bryon (West Seneca,NY)
With EJ Manuel, Robert Woods, Da'Rick Rogers and Marquise Goodwin added to the Bills offense to go along with CJ Spiller/F-JAX and Stevie Johnson. Do you think the Bills can be a offense that can put some PTS up on the board?
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
Don't forget that league high GBR, either. The Bills could have a powerhouse O if, and it's a big if, Manuel can step up out of the gate.
Who are your TOP 5 Players(So far) for FF this season?
KC Joyner (4:22 PM)
The top 5 will all be RBs, as that position is so thin this year that the entire first round in nearly every draft room should be occupied by RBs. I'll have more specific rankings in the near future.
What do your metrics say about Victor Cruz? Is he worth the big contract the Giants are about to give him?
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
Cruz seemed to let the contract situation bother him too much last year, as he was hit/miss. Take out of a couple of big plays and his numbers were mediocre in many ways. I wouldn't give him a monster contract but rather a very good one that had some reachable and lucrative production goals, just to make sure the 2011 Cruz returns.
So, what you are saying is that you mght have an interest in trading for Peterson then, to make him your keeper once the league is up and running again this season. haha
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
Yep. Peterson is going to be one of those backs who wins leagues this year. It will be a big plus to have the first pick in any re-draft room.
Bert (St. Paul, MN)
How do you like Chris Ivory's chances in NY?
KC Joyner (4:25 PM)
The Jets ranked 14th in GBR, so it's not as if he is going to a bad run blocking team. Like his chances with the caveat of the Jets aren't going to explode in points this year, so he might have a ceiling.
A number of analysts were low on M. Goodwin, the UT speedster, because of his low production. Isn't it possible Mac Brown didn't use him properly?
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
Part of that had to do with Mike Davis, the Longhorns other speedster. Davis had fantastic numbers last year and that probably led to them using Goodwin less often and in different ways than they might otherwise have used him.
Of all the current street free agents, whom has the best chance to sign somewhere and become a Pro Bowler?
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
Nickell Robey. He signed as a UDFA with the Bills, so he's not technically a street FA, but he displayed some superb coverage skills at USC. If he can put on a few pounds, look for him to have a potential impact on that club.
All things considered, is the Vikes passing attack better this year?
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
Big time. Harvin was very good on short/medium passes but did not offer much in the stretch vertical game. Jennings and Patterson solve that issues and also give the Vikes medium/short pass abilities.
Gray Hairs (Atlanta)
Which running back do you think has a more productive season, Ivory, Lamar Miller or Mark Ingram?
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
Would have to put Miller on top of that list since Miami ranked second in the league in GBR last year.
Do you think Eli Manning and Hakeem Nicks have bounce back years? Are the Giants the team to beat right now in the NFC East?
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
The issue for Nicks is can he stay healthy? He wasn't healthy for most of last year. Since he is reportedly healthy now, he's got to be considered a bounce back candidate.
Do you think DeAndre Hopkins will allow the Texans to open up their downfield passing attack this year?
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
Funny thing is I was breaking down some Texans tape right before this chat. The thing that kept standing out is they only had one player the defense really had to account for in the passing game and it showed in the way they were trying to attack defenses. Hopkins ranked second in my NFL Draft WR article and he has the ability to stretch the field, so this should allow Houston to open up that passing game.
Ryan (Germantown, MD)
David Wilson with a breakout year?
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
Yep. He was a favorite in the ESPN Fantasy Football Rankings summit room because of how he ended the season and how NY isn't likely to bench him again after one fumble (he learned his lesson).
John.C (Bethlaham Park,NY)
If the Bills were too land Brandon Moore to fill the vacancy left by Andy Levitre signing with TEN? Would you think that would be a Great move for Buffalo? Especially since they already have a great GBR!
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
It would likely be a lateral move talent-wise and thus should keep Buffalo at or near the top of the league in GBR. Those pass game additions won't hurt, either, as they could prevent defenses from clamping down on the run.
A Player Named Gus (Santa Barbara)
How early would you take Megatron in a redraft? 6th?
KC Joyner (4:35 PM)
In a fantasy football re-draft vacuum (i.e. all things being equal), Megatron would not be drafted until the second round. I can't stress enough just how thin the RB position is. If an owner skips over an RB in round 1, the odds are quite high that team will end up with only one starting caliber RB and it is really hard to win games in that scenario.
What happned to your Red Wings? I see they drank the same we want to golf Kool-Aid as my Canucks! haha
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
Hey, I'm proud of how they came back against Anaheim. The Wings don't have the talent to make a Stanley Cup run, so let's give them credit for getting as far as their talent says they are going to get.
Can the 49ers beat Seattle at their stadium? They got beat pretty good last year. It was reported they dialed back the offense for that game, but I am still concerned.
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
What they need to do to be Seattle at Seattle is get an early lead. That takes the crowd out and forces Wilson to be a pure drop-back passer, which is not his strongest suit.
Gray Hairs (Atlanta)
I saw your comment on David Wilson, in a keeper league would you roll the dice on Wilson over DMC?
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
I'd keep Wilson over DMC in large part because the Giants offense is going to be much better than the Raiders offense.
Scott (Northglenn, CO)
Worried about Ray Rice, and the fact that Bernard Pierce looked good enough to take 10-12 carries away..keep him for a 1st and partner with Doug martin and be set at RB? Or tempted by Jimmy Graham for a 2nd, Cobb for a 12th or Kaepernick for an 8th?
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
There are reasons to be worried about Rice, as Pierce ranked third in the league in GBYPA, but having two quality RBs is going to be of prime importance this year. Don't give up Rice unless you have a starting caliber RB to take his place.
In terms of fantasy, would you keep Charles at $35 or Wilson at $15 instead of Kaep at $15 due to the depth at the QB position and lack of depth at RB?
KC Joyner (4:41 PM)
Would keep Charles at $35. Kaep will be a very good fantasy QB but not good enough to rate keeping him over a top-line RB.
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
Hey, hate to cut it a bit short but I need to hit the road a few minutes early today. Quick note - the TFS material is always posted on Twitter @KCJoynerTFS. Thanks very much for all of the interesting questions and I hope to see you all here next week!