Chat with Jesse Rogers, Doug Padilla
Welcome to ESPNChicago.com! On Friday, Jesse Rogers and Doug Padilla stop by to chat about Chicago's baseball teams. First, Rogers at noon CT/1 p.m. ET talks Cubs and Padilla follows at 12:30 p.m. CT with White Sox chatter.
Rogers and Padilla cover Chicago sports for both ESPNChicago.com and ESPN Radio 1000.
Send your questions now and join the chat Friday at noon CT/1 p.m. ET!
Jesse Rogers (1:02 PM)
Hi all, welcome to our weekly baseball chat. We talk Cubs first. Bruce is in Colorado with the team, Im back home manning the phones for the inevitable trades that are coming...lots to talk about re the 2nd half which start tonight. Fire away!
Vac, Orland Park [via mobile]
Would You Consider The Theo-Jed Era A Success thus far?
Jesse Rogers (1:04 PM)
Of course not. But that implies its a failure. It neither. Its a work in progress. You cant even say its a success in terms of filling the minor leagues with prospects because we dont know what they will be and just because some random (yet educated) person says they have a good farm system now, it doesnt mean anything until it produces major leaguers...dont confuse activity with accomplishment...
I'm all for bringing up prospects slowly through the farm system. But when a guy seems to be dominating at his level (i.e. Albert Almora batting .330 at Kane County), what is the hesitation to promote him to the next level? What is the organization wanting to see out of a player like Almora before they bring him up to the next level of the minors?
Jesse Rogers (1:07 PM)
There's a lot of things behind the scenes they look at...first off, each player has specific goals they must achieve before moving up..some might have to do with BA or OBP or Slugging or defense...just because they are succeeding in one or several, it isnt enough in the Front office's eyes. For example, Javier Baez did not move up to AA until his walk percentage increased...they want one every 10 PA, he was getting near one every 12 so he got promoted..better to be safe than sorry too..Almora has missed time but he'll move up pretty soon in my opinion
What are the chances that we get a major league ready player in the Garza trade? i feel like thats a better option than getting 3 guys in the lower levels with how uncertain it is if or when they would make it to wrigley.
Jesse Rogers (1:09 PM)
I kind of doubt it..the problem is the rental aspect of it...a team that has a top prospect at AAA who's ready is a huge piece to give up for a 2 month rental...think teams feel safer giving up less proven commodities, etc. the main reason is the rental aspect..
Jason brush,Colorado [via mobile]
Can't the cubs bring up one of the young infielders to replace Barney. They can't hit any worse than he is?
Jesse Rogers (1:11 PM)
Yes, but can they field? And actually they could hit the same or worse if its too soon...you think its that easy to hit in the big leagues? Having said that Logan Watkins might get that shot...just dont underestimate barney's contributions on defense...and why give up on him at the plate until a minor leaguer is ready?..we're approaching that with Watkins so Barney better get that avg up
Ken, Fort Worth, TX [via mobile]
It seems to me that Castro does not meet the Sabermetric profile the front office wants at the plate or the field. Do you think he will got moved in the right deal?
Jesse Rogers (1:13 PM)
Yeah, that's still the $1,000,000,000 question...you are right about the profile but I believe there are excpetions to the rule..taking the extreme, lets say everyone else in the lineup does fit the profile and he's slightly out of it but he's so talented you can live with it...I can see that happening but we're not there yet...in either case, he has to produce in some capacity and he hasnt this season...there have been some decent at-bat, where balls to right field havent fallen in, etc but he's too talented to be this bad thru the first half...long-winded, he is absolutely tradeable, mostly cause of his age and contract but I wouldnt rush...lets see what he is, hopefully its not just this
Do you think Lake will progress well in his first stint in the majors?
Jesse Rogers (1:15 PM)
I wish I had a good answer for you...very interesting, thought they would give him more seasoning down there..I wonder if this is a one week cup of coffee thing or longer term...sveum will address that in colorado today..he got hurt in spring training so he's been behind...I do like the athlete in him..reminds me of Soler..
I've seen Mike Olt's name as a possible trade chip for Matt Garza. He's only had one exceptional year in the minors. Is he really someone you would trade a top of the rotation starter for?
Jesse Rogers (1:17 PM)
Yes, because, again, you are not getting 3 A+ propsects for a 2 month rental...Olt is good, who knows if he'll be great...basically you are rolling the dice with a trade like this because whats the difference, hes gone in 2 months anyway..if you trade castro or rizzo, thats diff. they are locked up...So, in this case, sure, Olt is probably worth it...along with more
Corey (Arlington Heights)
Junior Lake was just called up, what kind of playing time should we expect and where? Do you think Svuem's man crush on Luis Valbuena will affect his time?
Jesse Rogers (1:19 PM)
As I wrote in the Cubs blog today...I think he gets the majority in the outfield..before Soriano got hot, he was sitting more and more...but 3rd as well, especially against a lefty...or he could simply sit Valbuena for a week just to get Lake some at-bats...whats the difference, right? But long term if he's going to be a starter I could see him replacing Sori in left
Any chance Rangers include Martin Perez in the Garza deal? I really like the hard throwing southpaw
Jesse Rogers (1:20 PM)
This is their best pitching prospect correct? It would be nice but with the rental aspect, I dont think they get him..prob getting the guys one notch below
Jay [via mobile]
If/when Garza is traded, does he become a rental? Or do you see his future team giving him an extension? Chances Garza returns in the offseason?
Jesse Rogers (1:22 PM)
Definite renatl in my opinion...good question about returning but I doubt it..Ive talked to a few sources and it hasnt really come up. Ya know, they would float that out there to him I think...What sticks in my craw is the Edwin jackson signing...why did he get that contract? My guess is simply durability and I suppose 52 mil is better than 75-80 or whatever Garza might get...I just dont see it here...
When does Bryant start playing? Thanks
Jesse Rogers (1:22 PM)
Will get it going in Az then report to Boise, Idaho when he's ready..hasnt played in a month..probably early next month
Jesse Rogers (1:22 PM)
Mike (Ingleside )
If the cubs can't get what they want, will they look at an extentsion with Matt Garza more seriously?
Jesse Rogers (1:23 PM)
Im going to say no. If they are ready to trade him then Plan B cant just be giving him 75 mil. That seems like a huge change in plans...let him pitch here and qualify him and get compensation would be the alternative but I doubt it..he's going..
Joe (ar) [via mobile]
What's wrong with Theo??? Doesn't he know he signed a COLLEGE 3b who wont need much development 2nd overall?? why trade one of the top 20 starters in baseball for Mike Olt a 3rd baseman. We all know that's what were getting before the news breaks.
Jesse Rogers (1:26 PM)
Ha, maybe...but the answer is "these things have a way of playing themselves out." Who says Olt and Bryant will both be big leaguers and why cant braynt move to the outfield..he might anyway...or maybe you flip one for pitching..these are good problems to have...you dont worry about that stuff too much...you do a little. i mean you dont stack yourself with 7 catchers and nothing else...but they'll find room for all if they need to
Joe (West Town)
After seeing him play in the Futures game, many people were calling Arismendy Alcantara the Cubs 2B of the future. I was under the impression that Logan Watkins had the best chance of getting that job if it doesn't workout with Barney. Any insight?
Jesse Rogers (1:28 PM)
Alcantara is behind Watkins in terms of who gets the next shot but he's on the rise...this minor league projecting game is fun but NO ONE knows which ones will come through...its silly to play the game too seriously...we've seen 30th rounders succeed and 1st rounders flame out..watkins is up next then alcantara and again, things will play out or someone will get traded, etc.
With declining attendance at Wrigley, and with the potential for August and September attendance to be at an all time low, are the Cubs at all concerned?
Jesse Rogers (1:29 PM)
They are always concerned but hoping the pay off comes when they turn the corner...a couple of prospects at Wrigley wouldnt hurt but they wont rush them...ive said it before, Theo has what any management type in a big market woudl want: one, true chance to rebuild with no pressure of attendance, wins/losses, etc. he has it...now lets see what he does..
Realistic chance that Soriano gets traded?
Jesse Rogers (1:31 PM)
For a long time i didnt think it would but Ive changed my mind because I think Sori has...I think the cubs gave him a subtle hint when his playing time was reduced here and there...the funny part is the rest might have ignited him...so more rest might good for his stats but also force him to re-consider..if he can DH everyday in a warm weatehr park, why not?
Jesse Rogers (1:32 PM)
Thats it for Cubs talk...Doug Padilla is up next for Sox...keep up with the blog and follow me on twitter @espnchicubs and bruce levine as well..he had great, exclusive stuff with garza just this morning from Denver..enjoy the 2nd half!!
Doug Padilla (1:34 PM)
Let's begin with some White Sox talk.
What player will bring the Sox the best prospect or package?
Doug Padilla (1:36 PM)
I'd go with Jake Peavy over Alex Rios as the player that can being the best haul of prospects. A starting pitcher like Peavy simply has more suitors and NL teams should really be yearning to bring the former Cy Young winner back to that league.
Doug, What do you think is the most likely scenario in regards to possible return in a deal for Rios, Ramirez, Crain, and Peavy?
Doug Padilla (1:39 PM)
Lots of questions on what the exact return might be. Tough to get that specific. The front office has already identified the rotation as the core to build around. Expect a highly regarded infielder to be among one of the trade packages the White Sox receive. Pitching will be addressed too, even if the White Sox like theirs moving forward.
Nate (New Lenox)
Do you see the Sox trading Dunn to Baltimore and can we find a way to unload Danks huge contract?
Doug Padilla (1:42 PM)
Can't be sure about Baltimore specifically, but his June and July have given him some value and an AL team makes sense. Don't think the Sox have quit on Danks, but they'd listen to an offer, obviously. They don't seem to be shopping him. Still gets $15.75 million a year through 2016.
Doug, what is the likelihood Sale could go to the Rangers? I know it would take a huge amount of prospects with Profar at the center if it were to go down.
Doug Padilla (1:44 PM)
Sale is the guy the White Sox are going to build around. If somebody wants to offer a unheard of package, maybe the Sox say yes, but that doesn't seem likely. It's like splitting 10s in blackjack. Why would you potentially risk hurting a winning hand?
Doug, which teams do you see the Sox being the biggest trade partners with? I can see Rangers, Pirates, Dbacks, or even an AL Central team.
Doug Padilla (1:47 PM)
All contenders are in play, but the White Sox will likely avoid deals with division rivals. If the White Sox can deal for some prospects close to a breakthrough the idea is that the rebuilding process can start showing rewards in 2 or 3 years. Wouldn't want your former players hurting you then.
Doug, do you think at this point Rick Hahn is calling teams or is he playing the waiting game and waiting for the phone calls. I know that is a big deal, and if that is the case when will these trades go down?
Doug Padilla (1:50 PM)
This is always the interesting time when rumors of trades get out there and nothing happens. Just because a team decides it's time to deal doesn't mean the doors fly open that day. That last week of July is really the time when moves start to happen and teams can see how the market is unfolding. Hahn surely has some offers and is working on sweetening them, while getting more suitors to join.
What is the latest on Courtney Hawkins? Any ETA on his arrival to the bigs?
Doug Padilla (1:54 PM)
We are still perhaps three years away from seeing Hawkins. He's showing power at Single-A Winston Salem, but is struggling with a .193 batting average and a .268 on-base percentage. There is usually a dip during development for everybody and the hope is that Hawkins grows by leaps and bounds when he figures out how to put these struggles behind him.
With his recent offensive outburst, would you say Gordon Beckham has solidified himself as the 2B of the Sox future? Or would the team consider shopping him?
Doug Padilla (1:58 PM)
The White Sox certainly like how Beckham is playing now, but they probably expected this two years ago. He has two more arb eligible years and then becomes a free agent. Since he's making $3 mil this season, and more in subsequent years, the White Sox could move him at this deadline if the price was right. Tough call, though, because they like his makeup.
What is the likelihood the Sox trade Alexi and who would play short?
Doug Padilla (2:00 PM)
A year or two ago, would have said there was no way he's dealt, especially with his potential and team-friendly contract. He has clearly plateaued, though, ever since signing his deal. He has never really shown the power he had during his rookie season and all that talk a few years ago about how he should win a Gold Glove one day has long been a thing of the past.
Scott (Rockford, IL)
How long do you think Addison Reed will be on the White Sox? I'm looking to invest in a jersey.
Doug Padilla (2:03 PM)
That might not be a bad purchase. His salary is affordable and he is developing into a first-rate closer. Sure he has some wobbles at times, but at this stage and at his age, what he is doing is impressive. There is always the potential of using Nate Jones as the closer down the road and possibly trading Reed, but a power-throwing 1-2 punch at the back end of a bullpen that Reed and Jones provide is what teams drool over.
How have Keenyn Walker and Jared Mitchell been doing in the minors? Will we see them together in the Sox outfield in the future?
Doug Padilla (2:05 PM)
Neither one is particularly tearing it up this year. Mitchell was demoted back to AA earlier this year and his BA is hovering around the .200 mark. Walker is also at AA, with only a slightly better BA than Mitchell. Walker is certainly showing his speed with 31 steals. Mitchell was always expected to be the first to arrive, but he is in danger of getting passed up now.
Are there any current prospects for Sox fans to get excited about in their system?
Doug Padilla (2:08 PM)
Pitchers Andre Rienzo and Erik Johnson are creating the most buzz right now. Johnson is trying to overcome a groin strain. Rienzo is on a tear right now and could be set to join the big club soon. Reliever Daniel Webb and first baseman Andy Wilkins are looking impressive.
Doug Padilla (2:09 PM)
Thanks for the questions. As the trade market heats up follow ESPNChicago.com for all your info. Also follow on twitter at @ESPNChiSox.