Chat with Adam Rubin
Welcome to ESPNNewYork.com! On Tuesday, New York Mets writer Adam Rubin will stop by to take your baseball questions.
Rubin has covered the Mets since 2003. He's a graduate of Mepham High School on Long Island and the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He joined ESPNNewYork after spending 10 years at the New York Daily News.
Send your questions now and join Rubin Tuesday at noon ET!
Adam Rubin (11:55 AM)
Thanks for joining me.
Why is Beltran still in CF? Why is Beltran still batting 3rd? If consistent playing time is what Beltran needs to get his act together, shouldn't Jerry put him someplace where his bad knee and rusty swing won't kill us?
Adam Rubin (11:57 AM)
Even if it's clear Angel Pagan is a better short-term answer in center field than Carlos Beltran, the Mets already picked a fight with Beltran and Boras over the surgery in January. That's a huge can of worms. Officially, Jerry Manuel said that if Beltran is having difficulty with reads in center, where he's accustomed, moving him to an unfamiliar position would only make it worse. As for third, if Wright and Beltran aren't in the middle of your lineup, and Bay is out, who is batting in the heart of the order?
Shuey Ofman (Cedarhurst,NY)
The mets should have traded lasting milledge for oswalt or manny when they were able to!i want to know what you think?
Adam Rubin (11:58 AM)
You're going way down memory lane. Several years ago, I believe it was Peter Angelos, the Orioles' owner, who nixed a three-team deal between Houston, Baltimore and the Mets.
i agree with you that Madoff has bankrupted the Wilpons, Have you heard anything about them looking for someone to buy up to 49% of the team so Jeffy can keep control?
Adam Rubin (12:00 PM)
Whoa! I never said Madoff bankrupted the Wilpons. You don't know exactly the impact, but you can surmise that it hurt them. Even if the person overseeing the recovery of funds for the government deemed the Wilpons net gainers, consider this hypothetical example:If you invested $1 million over 20 years. Your account said you had $10 million. You actually have $1.1 million.Does that feel like a net gainer/winner in the mess?Throw in litigation by Sterling Equity employees whose 401(k) was invested through Madoff, a depressed real estate market for their other business and dwindling attendance despite a high payroll and you've got a recipe for being stung financially.
Hey Adam, signing time for draftees is closing in. Any updates on Matt Harvey or Greg Peavey for that matter?
Adam Rubin (12:02 PM)
The deadline is the 16th, after next weekend. I suspect it would go to the wire with Matt Harvey, a Boras client and the seventh overall pick. The Mets obviously knew what they were getting into when they drafted a Boras client, so you'd imagine they're prepared to shell out cash.As far as i can tell, Greg Peavey (sixth round) is the only other unsigned pick in the first 20 rounds. I have no insight on his status.
Harry (Babylon, NY)
Why wouldn't Mets ownership hire someone like Billy Beane and say "here is our budget, now go out their and build us a championship caliber team"? Surely whatever they pay him would be far more cost effective than the "approach" they currently have.
Adam Rubin (12:03 PM)
So you want a GM who has full autonomy? That generally works best. Full autonomy is a myth anywhere, but it's clearly further away from that with the Mets than some other organizations.
Matt (new jersey)
Dear Adam,Do you believe that Jason Bay will return to form next season such as Carlos Beltran did in 2006 after a disappointing 2005 season?
Adam Rubin (12:05 PM)
You hesitate to fault an adjustment period for Bay to New York, since he was playing in Boston, whereas Beltran came from KC/Houston. Still, maybe there's merit to what you're suggesting -- since Bay never had a contract like that and felt pressure to justify it. Still, even the Mets didn't expect him to hit 36 homers like he did last year with Boston. They estimated 30. Obviously having six and due to be out for a while longer with concussion symptoms isn't what they envisioned.
Who will be managing this team next year? Is it Wally time?
Adam Rubin (12:07 PM)
From what I've heard, Jeff Wilpon was a little concerned even putting Wally Backman in the organization in Brooklyn, so there's always that factor to consider. But my logic in anointing Backman the frontrunner has to deal with two factors. I expect the Mets will go low salary with the next manager. Who would work cheaper than Backman, who has waited so long after the Diamondbacks gig unraveled? And if you're not going to make a big splash this winter, the Mets will be looking for something to sell to their fans. The '86 angle may not mean what it used to for the fans who clamor for winning, but Wally's hard edge and his inevitable ejections can be marketed.
Why is the NY media so quick to bury Carlos Beltran? He was arguably the best outfielder in baseball from 2006-June 2009, and everyone is saying he is done after 80 AB's. Jose R also had a slow start after a long layoff.
Adam Rubin (12:10 PM)
Jose had established his leg health in spring training. He was coming back from thyroid-related inactivity and it took a while. Beltran is in his 30s, with an arthritic knee and wearing a brace. I don't think people are burying Beltran, saying he's washed up. But you have to conclude he's diminished. Wherever he's playing next year, it will be the final year of his current seven-year contract, so you should get a lot out of him.
Gilberto Mendoza (Caracas, Venezuela)
Hi Adam, one question does a GM that made a trade Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips for Bartolo Colon still deserves to be a GM?
Adam Rubin (12:11 PM)
The Expos were contracted, no?
Terence (Freehold, NJ)
What do you think about the Mets' playoff hopes?
Adam Rubin (12:12 PM)
Ron Davis (Rockaway NJ )
3rd Wright, 4th Davis 5th Beltran
Adam Rubin (12:12 PM)
Rearranging the deck chairs. Doesn't matter the order.
Justin (Nashville, TN )
Taking a look at the Mets farm system, obviously Kirk Nieuwenhuis stands out to me. Have you heard scouts say how far he is away? His bat looks strong, I'm curious about his glove.
Adam Rubin (12:14 PM)
I just watched Kirk yesterday at the Buffalo-Lehigh Valley game. He'll be up at some point next year. I would like to see him called up in September if the Mets are out of it, but there's a crowded outfield already and he doesn't need to be added to the 40-man roster this winter.He's got a football mentality and running back frame, and moves well for a center fielder despite his size. If everything broke right, he could be a 20-20 guy in the majors. That may be asking a lot, but that's the optimistic projection.
Michael (New York)
Was watching EPSN baseball tonight last night. GM Jack Zduriencik firing of don wakamatsu now is probably a good thing in preparation for next year. Best to assess your players with a new coach now than the start of 2011. why can't omar pull the trigger now? what else is vested in manual? Clean house. Is that why omar did some cleaning by releasing cora and putting out the homegrowns during the last game in philly?
Adam Rubin (12:16 PM)
The official answer with the call-ups is to shake things up and try to energize the team with youth. The unofficial answers: The Mets could not allow Cora to reach 80 games, which would have caused a $2 million option for 2011 to kick in. And if you're not really in it, why not see if Martinez and Tejada can play at this level so you know exactly what you need this winter?
Dave H (Atlanta)
Do you think any of beltran's problems are due to the fact that he only hit against Single A pitching in his rehab and considering how long he was out, why not AAA.
Adam Rubin (12:17 PM)
Maybe marginally, but I don't think that's a very big factor. They throw plenty hard in the Florida State League. I'm sure you see better breaking balls in Triple-A.
Jeff Steinberg (Marlboro, NJ)
Who do you think has the best chance at breaking camp in 2011: Nieuwenhuis, FMart, or Duda. This is if Beltran was to be traded.
Adam Rubin (12:19 PM)
If Fernando can hold his own these last several weeks, it would be him, you'd imagine. But you would have a whole spring training to slug it out. And I think Nieuwenhuis may be the better prospect at this point.
Chris (Hackettstown NJ)
Why do people always bring up the Bartolo Colon trade when bashing Omar. If you actully dig up old analysis from the time it happened, most critics saw it as a good deal. Colon was a top young pitcher. I saw a Baseball Prospectus write up about the trade at the time that said Cliff Lee had a upside of a mid-rotation starter.
Adam Rubin (12:19 PM)
Baseball Prospectus didn't make the trade.
whats the record for most managers by one gm?
Adam Rubin (12:20 PM)
Was there one GM with the Yankees as Steinbrenner made changes every week?
whats gonna happen with reese havens if tejada florishes ?
Adam Rubin (12:21 PM)
Reese Havens may not play again this season, so we're getting ahead of ourselves. If Tejada flourishes, he'll be the second baseman next season and Reese will be playing in Binghamton.
Paul (Ithaca NY)
Is there a real chance Castillo, Perez, K-Rod, and/or Beltran will be moved before next season via trade or release? Right now they are over paid and taking up roster spots and not producing. Also, do you see any major moves on staff before the season is over?
Adam Rubin (12:22 PM)
I refuse to believe Ollie will actually be in a Mets uniform on Opening Day 2011. I have my doubts about Castillo, too. I suspect the Mets will try to trade Beltran, but I promise you no one is taking him at $18 million. I also cannot foresee the Mets paying part of Beltran's salary to have him play elsewhere. K-Rod is your closer potentially for the next two years if he finishes 55 games next season -- and a very expensive one at that.
Do you have any insight as to why the Mets don't admit their mistake in the Oliver Perez contract? Why would an organization handcuff their manager by letting players that don't produce at a major league level occupy a roster spot. THey are consistanly short handed on the bench and in the bullpen.
Adam Rubin (12:26 PM)
They don't understand sunk costs, are stubborn, don't want to admit mistakes, think they can rehabilitate him and salvage some of the money they've spent, don't understand the ramifications of playing with a 24-man roster ...
Adam - Great work, great insights. If a team approached the Mets with a proposal for either Reyes or Wright and all things being equal who would you deal?
Adam Rubin (12:26 PM)
If it was a worthwhile trade, sure. But not just to switch things up.
If Wally Backman becomes the Mets Manager next year, do you see Bob Melvin being the beach coach?
Adam Rubin (12:27 PM)
I have zero insight on whom Wally Backman would want on his staff. Or who would be placed on his staff, which may be more accurate. Perhaps guys from the system like Ken Oberkfell, Tim Teufel and Ricky Bones would be rewarded.
Tom (Staten Island)
Did the Mets miss the boat in not trading Angel Pagan before the trading deadline and while his everyday value was at a high?
Adam Rubin (12:28 PM)
The Mets need to hold on to their productive pieces making $1 million or less a year. They need players who offset the high salaries, or else it doesn't work.
Billy (New York)
I know they have bigger problems but do u think the fences at citi canyon will be brought in?
Adam Rubin (12:29 PM)
Wright's homer totals are back to respectable numbers overall, so I don't think much is going to change.
Like Rick Ankiel, why not make Ollie an outfielder, trade Beltran and all will be fixed ...
Adam Rubin (12:29 PM)
Thinking outside the box?
Brian Smith of Fangraphs said yesterday that the Mets have the best farm system in the division, only they lack a Stanton/Brown/Heyward/Harper type blue chipper. To that end, why did they draft a pitcher instead of a high-upside type bat? Our own Stanton would fill a lot of seats in 2013
Adam Rubin (12:31 PM)
I thought I tweeted that yesterday -- that a scout at the Triple-A game said the Mets were the deepest in the division if you included players with 1 year or less of service time, but that the highest-end guy(s) were missing.The Mets drafted a pitcher in the first round because they're going to desperately need another reasonably priced starting pitcher. And a strong young cheap pitcher can get you anything in a trade anyway.
Mike (Jersey Shore)
What's the chance the Mets release Castillo and Perez this winter if they can't trade them
Adam Rubin (12:32 PM)
They have to on Perez. I imagine you can eat enough of Castillo's contract, or match up a bad contract, to find some taker. I mean, hypothetically, if you ate $5 million of the $6 million owed to Castillo, someone would take him as a $1 million second baseman, no?
Do you think the Mets should Jeff Francouer to open up right field for Fernando Martinez
Adam Rubin (12:33 PM)
Jeff Francoeur will not be a Met in 2011, I strongly suspect. And Fernando is going to play against right-handers, at least, the rest of the way. Frenchy should start Wednesday because the Mets are facing a LHP, Colorado's Jeff Francis. I can see both Francoeur and F-Mart starting tonight because Jerry said Sunday he's sitting Beltran today. We'll see, though. Maybe he'd use Carter and F-Mart in the corners, with Pagan in center. Carter had another clutch pinch hit Sunday in Philly.
Do Mets fans have anything to look forward to in 2011?
Adam Rubin (12:34 PM)
Watching Fernando Martinez, Ruben Tejada, Josh Thole and Ike Davis swim or sink.
Michael (New York)
The shake things up with youth sounds like a tremor. $2 million option vested in cora to kick in is petty. don't you think? where as you have these large salaries for players like Perez, Castillo. Omar pretty much knows this season is done. I believe... in FULL REFUND for 2010 games seen (2 with Perez, HOF game with Perez in bullpen).
Adam Rubin (12:34 PM)
$2 milliom ain't petty.
Adam- I believe your assesment of the Mets plans over the offseason have no merit. No whatsoever. Frankly, this propogation of a 'cheap' franchise is false and unwarranted. Hey, I know you need readers, but that is leass than honorable. The organization has continually added players to this team. And, unfortunately, at times, thsoe have been bad decisions, but to question their motives, is simply promting ones own interests and not being objective.
Adam Rubin (12:37 PM)
I haven't said the Mets are cheap. I've said they've failed to show discipline, and that it's how they spent the money, and not how much. If they only re-signed Pedro Feliciano this winter, and let guys like Francoeur, Maine, etc., go, their 2011 payroll is going to be the same as it was this year. You cannot tell me with dwindling attendance, a depressed real estate market, whatever Madoff impact there is, etc., that the Mets are going to spend more next year. Hence the conclusion that they're going to go with youth and not make a big splash this witer.
Tony (Pt. Jeff, NY)
PITCHING- They have an obvious need, but do not pull trigger on bringing up MISCH and GEE- why not? Bring up, give Pelfrey the "15DL" stint he needs to recoup his confidence and arm speed-leave Takahashi in pen, cut Ollie - maybe you catach lightning and answer questions- maybe not- but it couldn't hurt what they have and it avoids the NEW money issue- thoughts?
Adam Rubin (12:38 PM)
If the Mets are going to make a run, it's about getting Pelfrey on track and quickly, not about Misch and Gee.
Should the Mets trade Santana? They are not going anywhere and they can get a few prospects for him?
Adam Rubin (12:39 PM)
As well as Santana has performed lately, he's only in Year 3 of a six-year deal that now pays in excess of $20 million a year. Teams are not going to take on that kind of salary for a pitcher who may be at the edge of a decline, as his diminished velocity in the first half suggests. You get one $20 million a year pitcher on your staff, it seems. And the Mets chose Santana. So no Lee, etc.
Steve (Ambler, PA)
Shouldn't the Mets have tried to move Pedro Feliciano and get something for him. Lefty specialists from the pen seemed to have a lot of value, no?
Adam Rubin (12:41 PM)
Trading Pedro Feliciano would require the Mets to declare themselves out of the race, which they won't do because they're concerned with perception for ticket-sale purposes, etc. If they intend to re-sign Feliciano (and that's going to cost in excess of $3 million a year), then they might as well have held onto him. If he's going to walk after the year, or they're not going to offer him the dollars it will take, they should have traded him. Even if Feliciano hasn't been exceptional lately, he would have returned a nice piece. He's one of the elite lefty specialists in the game.
Adam, It seems that Bobby V won't end up leading the Mets next year. But where do you think he'll be headed?
Adam Rubin (12:41 PM)
Pure guess, but Seattle has Japanese owners and visibility in that market, so maybe it makes sense. Plus the GM and Bobby V worked together with the Mets.
RP (The Long Island)
Will Omar be the GM for 2011 and beyond? Is his keeping of the prospects this year all part of an actual "plan," or will the Mets get a new GM?
Adam Rubin (12:42 PM)
Will the sun come up tomorrow?
Sanpete (Bayside, NY)
Adam,Another week and more misery. Nothing is going to change for this team until said team is sold. And we know that is not going to happen. I actually found myself yesterday wishing Mark Cuban would buy the team. Mark Cuban. So with ownership staying, you HAVE to believe that even fan-tone-deaf Jeff and Fred will fire the GM. Omar has to know he is on borrowed time. Did you hear any rumors to the effect that they refused to let Omar make a deal at the deadline, since he probably will not be here next year?
Adam Rubin (12:43 PM)
I know what Fred said. And I interpret that as a vote of confidence for Omar.
Andre (Cologne, Germany )
How did the Mets suddenly come up with the deepest farm system in the NL East (and probably one of the deeper systems in Baseball) when it supposedly was among the worst and bereft of talent around this time last summer according to the National media and yourself ? Wasn't the real problem that these players just weren't as advanced a year ago ?
Adam Rubin (12:45 PM)
I'm not sold on it because of the lack of high end pieces. And I think the point is that if you go 10-15 deep, their pieces are good there relative to other teams, except where it counts most at 1 and 2.I still think Ruben Tejada may not hit enough to be a regular second baseman, even if the glove is exceptional. Josh Thole may be no more than a backup in the big leagues. Ike Davis may his .260-.270 with 18-20 homers and play above average defense most years. Fernando's reputation has taken a hit. Volume of guys who can play in the big leagues is different than having Jason Heyward or Stephen Strasburg or Domonic Brown or Mike Stanton or whomever.
Do you think that Jason Bay, after these concussion problems, will struggle, much like Church did?
Adam Rubin (12:46 PM)
Different caliber of player. But you're dealing with a player who has now been idle from physical activity for two weeks and counting. You saw what inactivity did to Reyes.
Is there any chance of the Mets trading Beltran and signing Carl Crawford? Or signing Cliff Lee.
Adam Rubin (12:47 PM)
As I mentioned on the blog yesterday, it's hard to envision the Mets throwing around big dollars this winter. They can always backload deals with low base salaries in 2011, but that's how the Mets got into the bind they are today.
Kevin (Stamford, CT)
Is it possible that the Mets could eat $10 million per year left on Santana's deal and trade him for a package including at least on blue chip prospect? Santana at 10-12 million per year would be reasonable to several teams, no?
Adam Rubin (12:47 PM)
The Mets won't eat Ollie's contract. They're not paying to have Santana pitch elsewhere.
In 2012 the sun may NOT come up! then we can start winning!
Adam Rubin (12:48 PM)
Feliciano ranks as a Type B free agent, the smart thing to do is offer him arbitration, if he accepts then you have him on a 1 year deal, if he leaves you get a supplemental pick. They got David Wright in that round. No?
Adam Rubin (12:49 PM)
I don't know what type of free agent Feliciano would be. Type B, I believe, just gets you a second round pick. Type A gets you a first-round pick (in the bottom half, or second round), plus a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds. David Wright was taken with one of those sandwich picks for losing Mike Hampton. Ike Davis was taken with the Braves' first-round pick (18th overall) for losing Tom Glavine back to the Braves.
Am I nuts or does Pagen not belong in the two spot? Move him to an rbi spot and move Thole to the 2 hole. Even as a rookie, he has good bat control and puts the ball in play. Thoughts?
Adam Rubin (12:50 PM)
You have merit. The Mets used to have Paul LoDuca in the No. 2 hole, and Thole hits for a higher average and primarily is a singles hitter.
adam you said 'if the mets make a run'. we all know there is no run left in this team. now is the time for ownership to make a statement, 'the sun coming up tomorrow' notwithstanding and start to think about 2011. i can wait for a championship contender, its the lies of 2009 being unacceptable, yet allowing everyone to keep their job for 2010 that is maddening. fire jerry tomorrow, release/trade ollie/castillo and move beltran this offseason. do the mets even have a plan adam? because to me, it is all reactionary. 2007/8, bullpen problems = jj putz. 2009 no power = jason bay. for once id like to see the mets out in front of it, instead of reacting a year late.
Tony (Pt. Jeff, NY)
With the infield struggling with errors, does Chip Hale deserve any blame? Seems the same problems at Arizona are showing up with the Mets.
Adam Rubin (12:52 PM)
I actually think Chip Hale is a very hands-on, hard-working coach. Jerry attributed Jose's lapses to being "lax" as the pitcher is about to deliver. Is that on Chip?
Is Mets ownership so concerned with how they are perceived through the media that they end up making moves in order to get positive press?
Adam Rubin (12:52 PM)
I believe media attention as it manifests itself in ticket sales is something the Mets place a greater emphasis on than other teams. The more rational approach would be: If you build a consistent winner the right way, the ticket sales will take care of itself.
Adam Rubin (12:54 PM)
Anyway, we did about an hour. Thanks for joining me. You can always email me at firstname.lastname@example.org. When I'm not inundated, I generally respond relatively promptly. Thanks.