Chat with Adam Rubin
Welcome to ESPNNewYork.com! On Thursday, New York Mets writer Adam Rubin will stop by to take your baseball questions.
Rubin has covered the Mets since 2003. He's a graduate of Mepham High School on Long Island and the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He joined ESPNNewYork after spending 10 years at the New York Daily News.
Send your questions now and join Rubin Thursday at noon ET!
Adam Rubin (11:48 AM)
Thanks for joining me. I'm going to get started a little early because there are plenty of questions in the queue and Carlos Beltran has a 1 p.m. conference call, so I need to be wrapped up by then. (You can read check out what Beltran says via twitter @AdamRubinESPN and on the blog at http://proxy.espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/ later this afternoon.)
Pablo (Bronx, NY)
Do you think that this new front office will spend on the draft? Next year's draft is said to be very deep in talent, and i think the Mets should go all in.
Adam Rubin (11:50 AM)
One of the topics that came up the day of the press conference was the Mets' adherence to slotting -- sticking with MLB guidelines for how much a draft pick a selection should be paid. Here's what was said: "Where [Alderson] makes a decision that we should go after a player that may be different than the slot says, we're going to follow that," Fred Wilpon said. Said Jeff Wilpon: "I think we've gone over quite a bit. Maybe we didn't go for that reach player, and that certainly might change."
I know you'll get this question in a variety of ways today...but if you had to take a stab at it, can you give us your guess at the guys called back for Round 2 and then the eventual choice for Manager? My blind guess (so you're not alone in this) is Clint Hurdle.
Adam Rubin (11:53 AM)
Among internal candidates, Terry Collins is a lock (and the most likely internal candidate to actually get the job). I feel funny calling Bob Melvin an internal candidate, but he was a scout this year. He would be likely, too. And the Record reported Wally Backman will get one, although I'll reiterate that I don't believe he will emerge as the manager. (Cue the hate emails.) I heard DeMarlo Hale had a solid interview, but I don't believe they're going to go with someone without major league managerial experience. I can see Clint Hurdle getting a callback, and/or Don Wakamatsu, as well.
Ron Davis (Rockaway NJ)
is Wartham a slam dunk to stay. and why is that so if you need to cleanes the past you need to get rid of him as well. Chip was only a year so i do not have that same feeling . Dan has been here and in the system for a good long time.
Adam Rubin (11:54 AM)
Ownership recommended Dan Warthen and Chip Hale remain on the staff, and that Howard Johnson and Randy Niemann remain in the organization. I believe that will be adhered to. I don't think you can quibble with the pitchers' overall success last year, relative to the talent level.
Chris Fiegler (Latham,NY)
Who will be the Mets Manager in 2011?
Adam Rubin (11:55 AM)
I alluded to this earlier. This is a new front office, so I can't be sure. But just like I heard from the beginning that Sandy Alderson was the most likely GM hire, I hear the same thing about Terry Collins as manager.
Joe S. (New York City)
Regarding the Mets lowering prices, I don't think they're fooling anyone. If the team is terrible people aren't going to be persuaded to watch just because of a marginal price reduction. What they should have done is lower every ticket by 50% just for next year, announce it is a transition year and let people come watch the young players without shelling out big bucks. Then they can raise them the following year when they have money to spend on free agents. What do you think?
Adam Rubin (11:56 AM)
I think that's all well and good if the payroll was going to be $80 million next year. But even if they're not trying, it's going to be $140 million next year just by adding a middling starting pitcher, backup catcher, second baseman and relief help.
Angel Pagan got robbed of a gold glove. If Jeter is as classy as everyone says he is, he'd give him his. Who wants something they don't deserve anyways?
Adam Rubin (11:57 AM)
I don't think Pagan got robbed. The sabermetric-inclined people feel Ike Davis was the Mets' best candidate.
Chris (Brooklyn, NY)
With all the gold glove talk surrounding Ike Davis, I'd love your opinion on how this front office will view Davis. Is he the 1b of the future? If so, what kind of opportunity will he get to prove that on the field?
Adam Rubin (12:00 PM)
I don't know for sure, but I was heartened to hear that the front office really spoke passionately about building from within and the value of homegrown players in terms of the fan base and from an economic perspective. That has been said by past administrations, but it didn't feel like lip service this time. Obviously, Davis will sink or swim in 2011. But I have to believe he'll be afforded every opportunity to succeed.
Adam, as Met fans we always want homegrown players. We also cut them some slack when they struggle as opposed to free agents. Why am I hearing rumors of Reyes being available today? These types of players are hard to develop. I think it would be a big mistake to trade him. What do you think and what have you heard?
Adam Rubin (12:03 PM)
If Reyes is "available," it's in the same sense, I imagine, that Robinson Cano is available with the Yankees -- that it doesn't hurt to listen to what someone can command. I would be surprised if Reyes was traded for multiple reasons: You'd be trading at a time of low value, since Reyes is coming off an injury and is only under a new team's control for one year; who exactly is going to play shortstop then (Ruben Tejada wouldn't hit enough right now); and Sandy Alderson spoke of the value of homegrown players and the attachment fans have to him. That doesn't mean I believe Reyes is a lifelong Met. I believe he'll test free agency next offseason, even if he re-signs with the Mets. And I believe even if he re-signs with the Mets, he could be subsquently traded when he would have more value to other teams.
Mark Rak (Yorktown, VA)
Adam, Will Bobby Valentine even get an interview? It doesn't seem like due dilligence if you don't call in the best manager available on the market. Or is his supposed fallout with the Wilpons that serious? Thank you...Your thoughts?
Adam Rubin (12:05 PM)
It does not sound like Bobby V gets an interview. Alderson said he may add 1 or 2 candidates, but the field is largely complete. And if Alderson said the first round should be completed by the weekend and he's going to be in Puerto Rico on Saturday, it doesn't sound like he'll be near Connecticut, where I believe Bobby V is. ... On the relationship with the Wilpons, I've heard in the past that Jeff maintains a strong relationship, and if there are any residual hard feelings, it would lie with Fred.
Lee (Long Island)
Who do you think the Mets should go after this Offseason?
Adam Rubin (12:06 PM)
You're going to have to be realistic this offseason. Once Pagan, Pelfrey and Dickey get arbitration raises, the Mets' payroll already will be $130 million. And even if they don't try, they're going to have to spend $10 million more just to get a catcher, starting pitcher, perhaps a second baseman and bullpen help, particularly from the left side. Mark Simon went over realistic options, such as David Eckstein. You can read that analysis here: http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/11795/if-not-lee-or-crawford-or-werth-than
Mike (West Orange)
I think that this is the first offseason I can remember as a Mets fan (I'm 34) in which fans seem patient. I don't want the Mets to sign any big money guys and I would be fine with them sort of blowing things up. Now that there is a legitimate captain of the ship, I feel like I am ready to enjoy the ride. Have you noticed the same thing?
Adam Rubin (12:07 PM)
I don't know if everyone is as patient as you. People are wondering why it will take until Dec. 1 to hire a manager. But I certainly believe there's more faith/trust that the front office will do the right thing than any time I recall during my eight seasons covering the team.
Chances that Alderson trade Pagans and one of the infield prospects for some pitching and let someone -FMart, Duda, Evans, Murphy -- play RF till the 2012 dollars free up?
Adam Rubin (12:09 PM)
I don't believe you can trade low-cost options like Pagan. And then what do you do when Beltran is definitely out after 2011? I don't think any of the younger players you mentioned could adequately handle a full-time outfield role in the majors right now. And of those, only Fernando Martinez projects as a full-time major league outfielder to me. And that's a dicey projection because he annually has been unable to stay healthy.
Lee (Long Island)
When Carlos Beltran returned last season the Mets spiraled downhill. I think its time the Mets let him and go and play Pagan in CF. What is your take?
Adam Rubin (12:10 PM)
I don't foresee Carlos Beltran getting traded. He has gimpy knees and is making $18.5 million next season. How much would the Mets have to subsidize for him to play elsewhere? At least $10 million, and probably more. So you're probably best served seeing what he produces in 2011, knowing he'll have to give it every last ounce because he needs to set himself up for free agency.
Ira (Great Neck)
Hi Adam. I am a big fan for the Hale boys. Do you think either Chip or DeMarlo are going to be back for 2nd interviews?
Adam Rubin (12:11 PM)
As I mentioned, I heard DeMarlo Hale's interview went very well, but I do not foresee him emerging. Chip Hale has ownership support. And I think he would do a solid job. I'm betting at this point, though, that he remains third base coach.
The Wilpons said they'd be agreeable to eating some salaries. They recently said they're willing to be flexible regarding the draft and slotting. They've pretty much said they are willing to do just about anything...if asked. In year one under Sandy, how far will he actually expect the Wilpons to alter their previous positions in these two matters? I expect the Mets to eat one of Perez or Castillo's contract. Will Sandy ask for both contracts AND and an alteration to the previous handling of slotting the draft?
Adam Rubin (12:12 PM)
I believe both the eating contracts and slotting-philosophy change both are genuine.
Hi Adam! Do you think Wright will be a 30 HR guy in the future? Some say he's going to be more of a 20/25 guy. I think he can be a 30 HR player. Your thoughts? Thanks!
Adam Rubin (12:14 PM)
He hit 29 homers last year, so I suppose it's possible. But without alterations to Citi Field -- and Alderson said he has no interest in changing anything -- I think the 25 may be more realistic most years. You would hope David would cut down on strikeouts, and perhaps that marginally reduces the homer total compared with 2010.
Do you think the Mets would go after Werth for RF?
Adam Rubin (12:14 PM)
Not unless he's willing to work for $2-3 million this year.
Do you think meeting with Beltran is really about getting him to accept the move to RF?
Adam Rubin (12:15 PM)
I doubt they'd drop that on him in a first meeting. Alderson will also meet with Castillo in the Dominican this week (and Castillo probably won't even be on the team in 2011). I think it's about building goodwill, which had been eroded with the organization. That's going to be a fascinating dynamic in spring training, though, if Pagan's mobility is vastly superior to Beltran's.
Do you think they are interested in bringing Heath Bell back?
Adam Rubin (12:17 PM)
The Mets already have an $11.5 million closer for next year. Going forward, I don't think Alderson wants an ultra-expensive closer, and I think Heath is about to move into that category. That doesn't mean Alderson won't spend on a bullpen. I just think post-K-Rod that the money allocation for the bullpen will be more evenly distributed rather than heavily weighted toward the closer.
Ron Davis (Rockaway)
Golden gloves got tarnish when R. Palmario got one after 13 games in the field in the early 90's who cares. just do your job if some idiot wants to give you a trouphy fine why do fans care about this award.
Adam Rubin (12:18 PM)
I wouldn't place too much stock in Gold Gloves. I actually felt Ryan Zimmerman deserved at least one of David Wright's Gold Gloves. (And I will add that it's not the writers on the Gold Gloves. The writers do Cy Young, ROY, MVP and managers of the year.)
AJ (New York)
Best description of being a Mets fan ever on Family Guy last weekend http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRuboEJPdBMIt's sad because it's true (sigh). Anyway, I think there is too much emphasis being put on hiring a manager that will immediately galvanize the fan base. I certainly wouldn't mind a hiring that was a bit more anonymous if it was in the best interests of building a long term winning culture here (see Terry Collins). Yes there is a part of me that wants Bobby V back but I think someone that can fly under the radar and bring a sensibility back to this team that has been lacking for years is the right call.
Adam Rubin (12:19 PM)
I believe you're in the majority of fans, but the most vocal subscribe to another viewpoint.
Danny (Dyker Heights)
Guesses on who rounds out the coaching staff?
Adam Rubin (12:21 PM)
I'd like to see who the manager is first, since that person may have attachments to certain people. But I would think if it is Terry Collins, it would bode well for people already in the system -- maybe a guy like Ken Oberkfell, who is interviewing for the managerial job, or Tim Teufel (an '86 Met!!!). If you're locking in Chip Hale and Dan Warthen, you need a bench coach, first base coach, hitting coach and bullpen coach.
Harry (Babylon, NY)
In one of JP Riccardi's interviews he mentioned Daniel Murphy in a postive light. Does the new front office see something in Murphy that the previous regime didn't?
Adam Rubin (12:23 PM)
I really don't know. But if you look at the analytical point of view that runs scored and runs allowed are weighted equally, and pitching is more important than fielding in runs allowed, Murph has going for him that defense is a secondary criteria. I see Murph is hitting .300 or so in the Dominican Republic with Aguilas, but really have no feel for his fielding peformance at second base there. I'll be interest to watch that in spring training. I do believe they need to bring in a low-cost veteran second baseman like David Eckstein if Castillo is out, because you have to have a hedge against Murphy/Tejada not being able to cut it.
Ira (Great Neck)
I'd hate to see Terry Collins get the job. Maybe it's just me, but he already quit the Angels when the players turned on him, and he quit his managerial job in Japan. He has been praised by DePo for his role in developing players. Shouldn't a guy like that continue being in the minor league roll ?
Adam Rubin (12:24 PM)
The Angels thing was nearly 12 years ago. And it sounded like a toxic mix of players. From what I've observed, he had a fantastic rapport with Mets minor leaguers and commanded respect. You can always argue that people should stay in roles they're good in, but if he's the best managerial candidate, I'm sure they can find someone else competent to develop players.
Mike (Danbury, CT)
Is it just speculation that Jerry never formally asked Beltran to play RF? Do you think that the new management will be able to show Carlos that he is now hurting the team because Pagan is a much better CF at this point? Or does Carlos desire to prove he is still an elite CF in his walk year win out in the end?
Adam Rubin (12:26 PM)
I believe Beltran CF/RF had to be an organizational decision with the front office, not solely the manager's choice. I asked Jerry several times, and he had maintained it wasn't an option. I'm sure Boras/Beltran adamantly want Beltran to remain in CF. And center fielders have it in their DNA to stay there. I remember how unhappy Mike Cameron was with being told to move for Beltran.
Hey Adam, no question as of this second, but did want to thank you for your coverage and reassure you that we Met fans who aren't crazy appreciate your reporting and think you do a great job.
Adam Rubin (12:27 PM)
Thanks. Positive remarks are welcome, since you usually only hear from the unhappy.
Harry (Babylon, NY)
What's your take on Alderson's visits with Beltran & Castillo?
Adam Rubin (12:27 PM)
Just a goodwill tour. He had said early on he wanted to go see the Mets' injured players first. I'm not sure Castillo falls into that category, but Beltran does.
Jim Clark (LI, NY)
Will Carlos Beltran (and Jose Reyes) tel us why there went to a Canadian who is not licensed in the USA and is under indictment for illegal PEDs? Will sSandy Aalderson ignore this like he ignored Canseco and McGwire in Oakland?
Adam Rubin (12:28 PM)
We've got plenty of legal issues to follow -- Charlie Samuels, K-Rod, Santana. I think that one is not on the frontburner anymore.
Regarding Heath Bell, I think if they indicate they're going to a closer committee from the get-go, it will head off any KRod tantrums from occurring over his option trigger.... cause as we both know there is absolutely no way they are going to allow that to trigger (55 GF). So $7M or so that Bell will get (+ draft picks) could be money well spent.
Adam Rubin (12:30 PM)
I can't imagine the Mets, if K-Rod is on the roster, go with a closer by committee. It will be fascinating to see Rodriguez's usage next year. Because no one with the organization, deep down, can want him to finish 55 games and have that contract vest at $17.5 million for 2012.
Justin P (Staten Island)
Hi Adam,Do you think in 2012 the Mets might think above moving Ike Davis to the OF and signing Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez?
Adam Rubin (12:31 PM)
Ike played at least a season of OF at Arizona State, but I believe Ike Davis is now a first baseman for his major league career. Heck, people wanted him to get the Gold Glove.
Chris (Saratoga, NY)
Will Sandy bite the bullet and cut both Castillo and Perez?
Adam Rubin (12:32 PM)
I believe they will have to eat the Perez money -- that they will not find a taker for him. Castillo, at $6 million, they might be able to swap for a bad contract. I did this list of bad contracts around baseball a couple of weeks ago if you want to try to find a bad matching contract: http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/11484/toxicology-report-bad-contracts-to-swap
Joe (Columbus, GA)
I am a full time college student here in GA working towards a business management degree. Do you know if the Mets have intern positions available that could help me one day become a general manager of a pro sports team? who would I write to in the organization to find out?
Adam Rubin (12:33 PM)
They definitely have internships. Just call the main number for the Mets and ask.
IA (North Jersey)
Do you think the Mets would lose a ton of money in revenues (more than the last 2 years (if they indeed did lose money)) - if they just traded away the Santana's and Beltran's of the world away for some younger guys and focus on a core of young players to develop?
Adam Rubin (12:34 PM)
I think Santana is more untradeable than Beltran. He's coming off shoulder surgery and is under control for three more years at annual salaries up to $25 million. You would have to subsidize a ton.
What are the chances that Daniel Murphy is the starting 2B come the beginning of the season?
Adam Rubin (12:35 PM)
When the GM meetings are in Orlando next week, I'm hoping to start quizzing the front office people about things like second base, whether Thole is in fact the No. 1 and they only need a righty-hitting backup, when their estimate of Santana's return date is, etc. I really don't know their thoughts yet.
Is this front office really high on Murphy like the past front office? So we could expect him to make a run at the starting 2nd base?
Adam Rubin (12:36 PM)
I think it's viable, but to reiterate, I don't know yet.
Mike (Danbury, CT)
What compensation level would we get for Beltran when he walks next year? Does it depend on his production next season or would his reputation/previous production make him a Type A FA?
Adam Rubin (12:37 PM)
You will not get any compensation. I believe there's something in Beltran's contract that he cannot be offered arbitration (which you need to do in order to get the draft picks). But there's ZERO chance the Mets could offer arbitration anyway. You rarely, if ever, get a pay cut in arbitration. So you'd basically be inviting Beltran to come back in 2012 for a minimum salary of $18.5 million. That's a salary he's never going to come close to duplicating in free agency again.
Does K-Rod's option for 2012 vest if he appears in 55 games, or if he finishes 55 games?
Adam Rubin (12:37 PM)
55 games finished -- which, I might add, he did for five straight years before this past season.
Will Rudy Terrasas remain in the organization? If so will he hold the same title or be sent somewhere else? The drafts under his watch have been very bad besides 2008.
Adam Rubin (12:39 PM)
It's clear that even if Rudy Terrasas does remain with the organization, Paul DePodesta will be dictating the direction of the draft. Alderson did say he planned to have two executives directly under DePodesta -- director of scouting and director of player development. I suppose the incumbents in those roles would be Rudy Terrasas and Adam Wogan. However, within a year, I imagine there's a fair chance you'll see turnover in those positions.
Tony (Pt Jeff, NY)
What does Vasquez have left on his Yankee deal? AND would the Yankees trade him for Beltran(contract year DH who could also play outfield) --straight up OR would it take more?
Adam Rubin (12:40 PM)
I believe Javier Vazquez is now a free agent. The Yankees paid him $11.5 million this year, but I think that's it.
If Sandy Alderson came to you & asked for your opinion on how to right the ship, give me 2 things you would recommend.
Adam Rubin (12:41 PM)
Don't listen to media. Don't listen to fans.
Which current Mets rookie has the best chance to be a full time and productive player in the near future?
Adam Rubin (12:42 PM)
If you meant rookie this past year, Jon Niese qualified. He or Ike Davis. If you mean someone who will be a rookie in 2011, that would be tough. I don't know that there's anyone knocking on the door who will make a major contribution that you haven't heard of. OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis is the closest, and I'm not sure he'd qualify for your question.
Will Reyes be on the Mets in 2012?
Adam Rubin (12:44 PM)
I have my doubts, but don't know. I do believe he would like to stay in NY. And I do believe he will test free agency next winter, like Jeter technically is, rather than signing an extension this winter. Alderson said in his initial press conference that he doesn't mind giving six-year contracts or so to players who have two or three years of major league experience. When you get to a guy like Reyes, who will have seven-plus years in and approaching 30, it just depends how many years an external team would offer.
start brady or flacco this week
Adam Rubin (12:45 PM)
If you're relying on me, you're in deep trouble.
Harry (Babylon, NY)
What is with ownership's fascination with all things 1986?
Adam Rubin (12:45 PM)
I guess it sells. But there's nothing wrong with embracing history. And for a while the '86 guys didn't feel much love.
Ron Davis (Rockaway NJ)
i thought the Mets were going to interview Pete McCannon of Philly coaching staff what happen there?
Adam Rubin (12:46 PM)
I believe it's Pete Mackanin. And I don't believe I reported that. He was suggested to look at by someone in the organization is all I know.
Mike (Danbury, CT)
I just wanted to send a thank you to all the Veterans out there, as well as the brave men and women of the NYPD and NYFD. Thank you guys for all that you do to let us enjoy life in the best country in the World. Lets go Mets!
I see that you are still in denial that Ike is a premier defensive 1Bman. The Adam LaRoche comps aside, Davis has an excellent glove and a bat that could still develop further.
Adam Rubin (12:47 PM)
I'm not in denial about him being an above-average defensive first baseman who likely will get even better.
Ira (Great Neck)
Hey, if the Mets don't resign Feliciano, maybe they can make Ike the lefty setup man! :-)
Adam Rubin (12:49 PM)
As you're probably aware, he did pitch at Arizona State. I remember speaking with Mike Leake when the Mets were in Cincinnati. He said Ike throws pretty hard -- definitely in the low-90s mph.
Ron Davis (Rockaway NJ)
will Hank White aka Henry Blanco be the #2 catcher or somebody else who?
Adam Rubin (12:52 PM)
Don't know. He's turning 40. But if Thole's the No. 1, they can use a righty-hitting backup. A question for next week's GM Meetings.
Did the Mets ever try to trade for Carlos Zambrano last summer in exchange for Perez and/or Castillo? Heard a rumor but wanted to get your take...
Adam Rubin (12:53 PM)
I believe it was suggested, but the Cubs weren't interested. ... Well, I've got to run and get on the Carlos Beltran conference call. Thanks for joining me. Please check the blog/twitter for updates on what Beltran says.
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