Adam Rubin

  (11:59 AM)

Thanks for joining me. I'm live from Denver, where Mike Pelfrey takes the mound tonight ...

Chris Fiegler (Latham,NY)

Will Mets P Chris Young will be out for the season?

Adam Rubin

  (12:01 PM)

The Mets have not confirmed Young will miss the full season, but it seems fairly obvious. If he has the surgery, he would miss about 10 months, it would seem, at least if the Johan Santana track is any guideline. Santana had the same injury and had surgery on Sept. 14. He is due to return to the majors in July, if all goes according to plan. Young had this injury last year, too, according to John Ricco and rehabbed. But he only made three September starts, after the one in April, last year with the Padres.

Michael C. (Westport, CT)

If the Mets trade Reyes, shouldn't they insist the team that gets him must take David Wright's contract as well? He is the most overrated player in baseball. The last clutch hit he got was in Little League, if then. I know, I know, he's a great guy. Your thoughts?

Adam Rubin

  (12:02 PM)

Glad you're not the GM. I think there are plenty of teams that would take David Wright off the Mets' hands, even at his salary level.

Jason (NJ)

Outside of the box idea to the Reyes contract issue: Sign him to a frontloaded 5 year extension with a player opt-out after 2013. Reyes gets his $$$ and the option of re-entering free agency when he is 30 years old and the Mets keep a player in his Prime with less risk on the backside of the deal. Thoughts?

Adam Rubin

  (12:03 PM)

If he can get seven years, $126 million this offseason, he ought to take it somewhere.

Jason (NJ)

Josh Thole has been a big disappointment so far. How soon do you think Terry will divide the playing time at roughly 50/50 between Thole and Paulino?

Adam Rubin

  (12:04 PM)

Terry will start Ronny Paulino one game this series, even though the Mets see only righty starting pitching from the Rockies. I imagine it will drift closer to 50-50 if the production disparity continues, but not imminently. The Mets do see one left-hander in Houston too -- J.A. Happ on Saturday.

Rob (Fairfax, VA)

If the Mets lose another starting pitcher, what are their options? Besides D.J. Carrasco...

Adam Rubin

  (12:06 PM)

Pat Misch is in the major league bullpen right now. As long as he doesn't go too long without logging multiple innings, he could step in. The Triple-A rotation right now is D.J. Carrasco, Casey Fossum, newly signed Brian Sweeney out of the independent Atlantic League and younger right-handers Josh Stinson and Chris Schwinden. You can read more on that topic here: http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/columns/story?columnist=rubin_adam&id=6517371

Benny (Bronx)

If Reyes and Beltran are dealt for minor leaguers, will Mets tickets be given away like the newspapers A.M. New York and Metro New York at Grand Central?

Adam Rubin

  (12:06 PM)

Have you seen StubHub recently? You can get tickets for $4 or so right now.

Scot (Washington, DC)

Please predict the rotation for the 2012 season.

Adam Rubin

  (12:08 PM)

Wow. Well, scratch off Jenrry Mejia, who will still be rehabbing after Tommy John surgery. Johan Santana, Jon Niese, R.A. Dickey are three. Mike Pelfrey could be traded, but he could be No. 4. Perhaps Chris Capuano re-signs. Dillon Gee would be a viable option. And Matt Harvey, the first-round pick from 2010, certainly could be a strong competitor in spring training. There is always next year's free-agent class of Capuanos and Chris Youngs too.

Josh (NY)

Is there any scenario you can see where the Mets keep Jose Reyes? Each time he gets a triple I get more depressed.

Adam Rubin

  (12:10 PM)

I wouldn't write it off completely. The more fans clamor for him, the more viable it becomes, since the front office seems to at least marginally take into account fan reactions (Castillo, Perez are examples of that). It's just hard to envision a scenario where Sandy Alderson offers a seven-year, $126 million deal if it's available elsewhere. And as much as Reyes loves NY, it would be hard for him to leave $30 million or more on the table.

Adam Agresta (Glens Falls, NY)

When is santana gonna be back?

Adam Rubin

  (12:10 PM)

Santana should be on a mound any day, unless something happened in the past week I'm unaware of. That puts him on a track to return around the All-Star break, at least if there are no setbacks.

Dan (Manhattan)

With the resources the Mets had in the past, why is their minor league system so thin? Surely they could have spent more in the draft and internationally to avoid the current situation.

Adam Rubin

  (12:13 PM)

It's middle-of-the-road now. There are a lot of factors. They did not flex their muscles like other big-market clubs and outspend others in the draft. They whiffed a few times, like the year they took college relievers with their first two picks (Eddie Kunz and Brant Rustich). And I really thought they would exploit Omar Minaya's connections in Latin America more than they did. That said, the lower levels of the minors do have a fair amount of interesting players -- Matt Harvey and Matt den Dekker from the draft, among others, and Wilmer Flores, Cesar Puello, Jeurys Familia from the international signing route.

Kevin (Florida)

Harris, Hairston and Hu have been terrible so far. Is it the lack of better options that's keeping the Mets bench the same?

Adam Rubin

  (12:16 PM)

Well, it would have been interesting if Angel Pagan had come back without the setback, because you would have to believe Jason Pridie would have stayed at the major league level and Willie Harris or Chin-lung Hu would have been vulnerable. In the minors, Nick Evans would be the most viable option to replace Hairston, since they're both righty hitters. And I don't see that happening soon. On the left side, you have Lucads Duda, Fernando Martinez and Kirk Nieuwenhuis in Triple-A as outfielders. As well as Nieuwenhuis is doing with Buffalo, I don't know yet that he has addressed some faults that could be exploited at the major league level -- hitting curveballs and facing left-handed pitching.

limetfan (shirley ny)

Anybody have any clue whats up with Jason Bay and his lack of hitting for power? Besides his late inning deep fly out his power has been non existent

Adam Rubin

  (12:16 PM)

I'll give the Mets' stock answer: If we knew, we'd fix it.

Chris (New York, NY)

Is there any chance of a Reyes extension and a trade for Wright? Would get more in return or sure.

Adam Rubin

  (12:17 PM)

You would definitely get more in return. If you trade David Wright before the deadline, the new team gets 2 1/2 years of his services under their control.

Matt (Astoria)

Do you think the Mets' hitting coach should shoulder more of the blame for the obvious swing problems plaguing Wright and Bay? both are getting on top of the ball and hitting far more grounders than their statistical profiles suggest they should.

Adam Rubin

  (12:18 PM)

I would not imagine Howard Johnson is thrilled, since he is close to David Wright particularly. But I'm sure there's some small satisfaction that he is now somewhat absolved.

Jon (NYC)

Considering how well he is producing, could Reyes net the Mets a young, high-upside major league starter that could factor into the rotation for this year and the future? Homer Bailey for instance, or Madison Baumgarner. Would having a pitcher like that under control be more valuable than having a resigned Reyes (if the Mets could afford him)?

Adam Rubin

  (12:18 PM)

You're on the right track, I imagine.

Jason (Orange County NY)

The way I see it-Sandy Alderson has a huge job ahead of him-One that could go beyond his contract years-How do you see the Mets getting back into contention in the future-This is painful

Adam Rubin

  (12:20 PM)

If they get good prospects for Carlos Beltran, K-Rod and Reyes -- and consider trading Wright -- certainly there would a major short-term hit in terms of winning. But if they make the right trades, they can reinvent themselves. Look at what the Marlins did with their fire sales after winning championships -- although that's not an exact comparison because, except for Wright, the players will be free agents after the year.

Carl Weathers (Bronx)

Are you aware of any sabermetrics statistic that takes into account reached on error? I can't think of any and it seems like something that Bill James and his people would consider...ie a quick baserunner gets on base more by forcing opponents to rush throws.

Adam Rubin

  (12:22 PM)

Don't know, but I bet ESPN Stats & Info's Mark Simon does. You can email him at webgemscoreboard@gmail.com.

Micah (CT)

What is the brighest spot in the minors right now?

Adam Rubin

  (12:23 PM)

Has to be Matt Harvey, the top pick from 2010, out of the University of North Carolina. With the exception of one outing, he has flat-out dominated the Florida State League. I imagine he will be moving to Double-A very soon.

Dexter (pdx)

Wright & Beltran to an AL contender gets you a lot more than what Reyes can bring...

Adam Rubin

  (12:24 PM)

Wright gets you more than anything because he's got 2 1/2 years left under control. ... The interesting thing that has not been talked about is that do the Mets want the other team to pick up a lot of money? The more of the salary the Mets pick up, the better package they'll get. The more the acquiring team picks up, the less the package will be. Might be an interesting tug-of-war between the front office and ownership, with the ownership financial stake prevailing if a minority owner is not on board soon.

Ricky (NYC)

Is Wilmer Flores the next Reyes?

Adam Rubin

  (12:25 PM)

Completely different players. Reyes is fast. Wilmer's most glaring weakness is his lack of speed. That's why he's likely to move to a corner infield or outfield position.

Dexter (pdx)

If Jason Bay has a similar season to last year, any chance he can be moved with the thinking that he just can't perform in NYC?

Adam Rubin

  (12:27 PM)

If he doesn't perform, does someone want to pick up his final two years? He's due to make $16 million apiece in 2012 and 2013, plus a $3 million buyout of a $17 million option for 2014.

Chris (North Brunswick)

Any chance of Josh Thole being sent to Buffalo for a spell and making Paulino the everyday catcher? Seems like he isn't really playing well enough to keep his job.

Adam Rubin

  (12:28 PM)

Why not just adjust playing time at the major league level accordingly and have Thole work on his technique with the major league coaches on the side as an intermediate step before something more drastic like that?

Chris (North Brunswick)

What does Nasty Nick Evans have to do to get out of Buffalo?

Adam Rubin

  (12:29 PM)

Get claimed off waivers at the end of spring training next year perhaps. He's out of options. He also would have the right to declare free agency if he cleared waivers.

Matt (Astoria)

I still think Howard Johnson needs to shoulder more blame for Bay's problems. He is just not getting any lift on the ball. No Mets batters are, for that matter.

Adam Rubin

  (12:29 PM)

Bay and HoJo haven't been together since last July. I'm not sure you can still blame him.

limet fan (shirley ny)

Beltran prove yet he is more then a DH?

Adam Rubin

  (12:30 PM)

He started 21 straight games. That should make him far more marketable at the trading deadline. Let's see how he continues to hold up with the daily pounding. Even Terry Collins admitted being pleasantly surprised so far.

Micah (CT)

Adam I apprecaite you taking my question. There is a ton of rumors of the Mets trading off a ton of pieces. Do you think they can be a 500+ team in 2012? with FA signings and bad contracts running out

Adam Rubin

  (12:31 PM)

The division isn't going away. The Nats will have Strasburg and Bryce Harper next year. And the other teams should mostly be intact. It's going to be a rough couple of years.

Jon (NYC)

If the Mets do trade Reyes, do you get the sense that they feel they need to get a shortstop back or do they think that Tejada will be able to step in there?

Adam Rubin

  (12:32 PM)

They'd be much better served getting back as much pitching as they can. The reason Tejada is playing shortstop at Triple-A right now is to plug in after Reyes' departure, I believe.

Ron Davis (Rockaway )

i feel the Mets should get a new pitching coach. too many injurys to their young pitchers over and over. Parnell,Mejia and Beato to name a few

Adam Rubin

  (12:34 PM)

On Mejia, Warthen was the one who viewed him as a reliever because of all the stress on his elbow, which was not the prevailing organizational theory. And I don't think Warthen was the one who used Pedro Beato for three innings in Philadelphia. Nor do I think you can blame him for Bobby Parnell developing a clot.

Tony (Pt Jeff, NY)

Minors- outfield talent seems deepest, and then pitching- both now and in future years... WHY does infield talent seem so far behind for Mets? Last real infield talent for Mets was Wright/Reyes and that has been YEARS ago...

Adam Rubin

  (12:35 PM)

The unfortunate thing is Reese Havens has not developed because of rib-cage injuries. Otherwise, barring Reyes departing, you'd have a sound homegrown infield of Davis-Havens-Reyes-Wright.

Pablo (Bronx, NY )

Any update on Reese Havens? I know he was taking grounders a few weeks ago but has he started swinging a bat, and how close is he to joining the Double A team?

Adam Rubin

  (12:36 PM)

Last I heard, he was fielding in instructional league games, but they did not want him hitting. Farm director Adam Wogan said there's no point given weekly updates, comparing it to Johan Santana in being a longer-term horizon for returning.

Pablo (Bronx, NY )

We're a month away from the draft. Have you heard anything from scouts in regards to who the Mets are looking to pick at #13?

Adam Rubin

  (12:38 PM)

ESPN's Keith Law identifies potential Mets draft picks at No. 13 as LSU outfielder Mikie Mahtook, UCLA right-hander Trevor Bauer, Texas right-hander Taylor Jungmann and Columbia, S.C., high school right-hander Taylor Guerrieri. You can read a full write-up on the draft, with plenty of quotes from Paul DePodesta, here: http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/20635/in-depth-depo-on-draft

John (Madison, Wi)

Ruban Tejada, how is he doing this year? Is he a future SS or just a utility IFer?

Adam Rubin

  (12:40 PM)

He's hitting about .270 at Buffalo, which is good for him. The jury is still out, but I see him more as an elite backup middle infielder than an everyday player.

Scot (Washington, DC)

I'm starting to think Dickey's 2010 season was a fluke and that we are seeing the real deal this year, i.e. mediocre at best. Your thoughts?

Adam Rubin

  (12:41 PM)

He had a lot of bounces go his way last year. Now, division teams, at least, have seen him a little. The reality is somewhere in the middle between last year and what's going on now.

bambam (red bank)

With how the wildcard usually plays out a record around .500 in july usually will keep you within the race at least on the fringe. If they are do you think the Mets will try to go for it and keep their players.

Adam Rubin

  (12:42 PM)

You think the Mets will be close to .500 in July?

Mitch (NY)

Adam- any early word on who the Mets are targeting in this year's draft? Also whats the latest on Steven Matz?

Adam Rubin

  (12:43 PM)

Steve Matz, their top pick in 2009, is throwing off a mound following May 2010 Tommy John surgery. He may pitch in Brooklyn. He should be in games this summer somwhere regardless.

Kevin (Florida)

You mentioned the amount of salary the Mets pick up factoring in to the returns on potential trades. Was the Wagner trade a couple years ago all about the money? The Mets missed out on a lot to save $2 million.

Adam Rubin

  (12:44 PM)

The Mets essentially sold two first-round picks to the Red Sox for $5.5 million -- Wagner's salary and buyout and the money to sign those two picks. Chris Carter was about appearance and making it seem like a trade when it was a near-pure salary dump.

Dick Grundy (Brooklyn)

I originally agreed with your modest (yet pragmatic) prediction of Ike Davis's career numbers moving forward. Yet, to my surprise, he seems to be on track to exceed both the HR guess and the RBI total. Change your mind?

Adam Rubin

  (12:45 PM)

I'm still not sure he's going to be a big home run hitter. I think people make sweeping assessments after short, great spurts. I'm not saying it's impossible he's a 30-plus homer a year guy. I just still don't see that. If you want to tell me upper 20s, I can grant you that.

Zack (CT)

RE: Wagner. You can't forget that the Mets had to offer him arbitration in order to get those 2 picks. That would have been a huge gamble. Obviously he declined it, but that's hindsight.

Adam Rubin

  (12:46 PM)

He wasn't accepting arbitration to be a set-up man. If you know Wagner, you knew that.

ROB (UNIONDALE, NY)

I dont understand why there is all this talk of the mets trading reyes, what about wright? Reyes has been consistently good all season and wright has been the streakiest met thus far. I feel like you can build a team around Reyes, and come on they built CITI field with reyes in mind. REYES IS IRREPLACEABLE AND THATS THE BOTTOM LINE, AND WRIGHT CERTAINLY IS REPLACEABLE, What are your thoughts on the situation?

Adam Rubin

  (12:47 PM)

I think you're starting to hear chatter about Wright. By the way, I did write about Wright and a trade a few weeks ago, before he started doing poorly, and got some angry emails.

Steve (Brooklyn)

Why not fast track Harvey? I realize that he is young but he clearly superior to A, AA and probably even AAA. We should give him a chance in the majors. The Mets season is practically over, so giving a young pitcher a chance isn't a bad idea. Its not like he is going to be made a reliever. I don't see why we shouldn't fast track him.

Adam Rubin

  (12:48 PM)

The hitters are a little better in the majors than the Florida State League. The Mets should promote him when he's ready. He seems to have demonstrated he's ready to go to Double-A Binghamton. What's the rush?

Bryan (Union, NJ )

Hello Adam, Can you see Beato as a future closer for this team?

Adam Rubin

  (12:49 PM)

Pedro Beato arrived in Florida on Monday. He's not throwing right away off a mound there, though, assistant GM John Ricco said. He's eligible to come off the DL next week, and should return close to that. Not sure he's a future closer. I think the Mets would settle for productive bullpen cog.

Jon (NYC)

What is it specifically about Davis that makes you doubt he has 30+ home run power? Pretty sure all 7 of his homers this season have been of the no-doubt variety.

Adam Rubin

  (12:50 PM)

You're right. Perhaps I should adjust. I've just always viewed him as more of a line-drive swing. Maybe he's evolved and my thinking needs to as well.

Chris (NY)

Adam- I can see Matt Harvey as a future closer, reminds me of a Paplebon type. Agree?

Adam Rubin

  (12:51 PM)

Nope. The guy has multiple plus pitches. That's top-of-the-rotation starter stuff.

Terence (Long Island)

Can we please put to bed the whole "Wright is not clutch" idiocy? His career numbers are 302/382/512, while his high leverage aka clutch numbers are 304/394/479...almost identical

Adam Rubin

  (12:51 PM)

I will say his early numbers are superior to his more recent numbers in that category. Wright had amazing bases-loaded numbers his first few seasons in the majors.

Vinny (NYC)

Do these people suggesting we trade Wright and Reyes realize the return on a deal like that is rarely equal? The Mets would be taking a chance on prospects that may not develop into 50% of the players Wright and Reyes are. I realize cost comes into play, but simply dealing your top players doesnt guarantee you anything. Even the Erik Bedard deal a few years ago was seen as a robbery for the Orioles, but Adam Jones hasnt developed into a star.

Adam Rubin

  (12:54 PM)

Take a look at what Texas got for Mark Teixeira. It does work out. Or, look at even low-level deals. The Mets once sent Jason Bay to the Padres for Steve Reed. Oh, and there was that Omar deal with Montreal. He got Bartolo Colon for Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips. I know, I know, he thought he was going to be contracted. But yikes.

Joe (VA)

Do you think a lack of a true threat (read: Delgado) has messed up Wright over the years? In '09 there was no real threat with Delgado and Beltran down, same with '10 because Bay wasn't "the guy" and Ike has shouldered some burden, but he's no Delgado.

Adam Rubin

  (12:55 PM)

Many in-the-know people, including inside the organization, believe Wright cannot be THE guy. He needs to be a very, very good second or third piece. So, yes, you have identified an issue.

Tom (Jersey)

Just saying here, but Alderson's offseason acquisitions while not costly have been awful, C. Young predictably injured, Harris, Hairston and Hu have been terrible, giving him a mulligan but he's on notice with me!

Adam Rubin

  (12:57 PM)

He did have only $10 million or so to spend. The positives, so far, have been Jason Isringhausen (who walked into camp), Pedro Beato as a Rule 5 pick and Chris Capuano if he does not break down. Ronny Paulino has hit so far and is a low cost, but he's missed a lot of time. Negatives: Hairston, Harris, Hu, Emaus, Boyer, Carrasco. Other signing was Buchholz.

Dick Grundy (Brooklyn)

I'm always amazed at how short-sighted Mets fans are. It's the whole Band-aid, short term (Minaya-esque) decision making that got us in trouble in the 1st place. Do you think Alderson has the patience to see this team through the doldrums of the next few seasons? He seems to be aware of Fan-clamor more than he should be.

Adam Rubin

  (12:58 PM)

I believe he understands there's a "process," to use his words. It's an awful challenge though, because as the Phillies fade over future years with age, the Nationals will be rising with a dominant core. And the Marlins and Braves aren't going away.

Adam (Eugene OR)

I've heard this team has been wanting to win ball games, then why is there no Talent to compete on a daily basis, inconsistent, AAA guys will never be able to compete. When do they start blowing this team up?

Adam Rubin

  (12:59 PM)

If they trade Beltran, Reyes and K-Rod, I don't think there's anything less to blow up. You'd have David Wright left from that infamous "CORE"

David (Atlanta)

Hey Adam, I really think the Mets should rebuild most of the roster. They just cant compete with the Phillies and Braves. and there a long way from doing so. The Braves have better arms in AAA than the Mets have on there 25 man roster. Tear it down and add as much young talent as possible. What do you think?

Adam Rubin

  (12:59 PM)

That's the way it's headed.

Jonny (L.A.)

Do you think in some sense that Terry Collins is sort of a caretaker for this team, to get them through the next difficult 3 or 4 years before turning over a possible contender to a younger manager currently being groomed (Teufel, Backman, etc.)?

Adam Rubin

  (1:00 PM)

It may turn out that way, but I don't believe that was the design -- except to the extent that if the Mets do go young, Collins is equipped to handle that as someone who has overseen farm systems and spent a lot more time at the minor league level than major league level in his career.

Scot (Washington, DC)

Any update on the sale of a "portion" of the team? Cohen still the front-runner? Why is this taking so long?

Adam Rubin

  (1:01 PM)

I was told it very well could be announced by the end of May. There was a report today Steve Cohen is not the frontrunner, despite the Post saying so.

Kevin (Florida)

RE: Tejada. Isn't "elite backup middle infielder" kind of an oxymoron?

Adam Rubin

  (1:01 PM)

Better to be good at a lesser role than the lowest tier of a bigger one, perhaps.

Tom (NYC)

What would a new minority owner mean for the Mets in terms of payroll? Could we expect them to raise the payroll and go after big money guys again in the winter?

Adam Rubin

  (1:02 PM)

I think the $200 million goes to paying off loans. I'm not sure how much of an impact it has on payroll. Maybe instead of going from $145 million this year to $100 million next year, it only slides to $120 million instead.

Malcolm (Brooklyn)

Any update on Wright and the back issues that have supposedly plagued him for the past three weeks? Is this why he has not been hitting? I am puzzled as to why Wright has been such a streaky, strikeout prone hitter the past two years as opposed to years before. Citi Field and no Delgado?

Adam Rubin

  (1:03 PM)

I have a write-up on that here: http://proxy.espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/22243/wright-mum-on-injury

John (New Jersey)

Adam, i love the mets more than anything. can you give me something to look forward to?

Adam Rubin

  (1:03 PM)

Matt Harvey in 2012.

Adam Rubin

  (1:04 PM)

Anyway, we've gone a little over an hour. Thanks for joining me today. There's plenty of info on the blog if you'd care to check it out: http://proxy.espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets