Chat with Adam Rubin
Welcome to ESPNNewYork.com! On Wednesday, New York Mets writer Adam Rubin will stop by to take your baseball questions.
Rubin has covered the Mets since 2003. He's a graduate of Mepham High School on Long Island and the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He joined ESPNNewYork after spending 10 years at the New York Daily News.
Send your questions now and join Rubin Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET!
Adam Rubin (1:00 PM)
Thanks for joining me. We'll chat Mets for the next half hour or so. Then I need to head out to Citi Field for Mets-Marlins.
Chris Fiegler (Latham,NY)
When do you think that we will see Johan Santana back with the New York Mets?
Tony (Pt Jeff, NY)
How long on Santana? Doc mtg today when? When back to throwing? Would YOU shut him down for the year(no game throwing in minors/majors) to protect him and organization?
Adam Rubin (1:02 PM)
Santana is due to see the doctor in New York on Thursday. If he is having discomfort, it's hard to believe they would allow me to resume pitching in games Monday, which Sandy Alderson identified as the earliest possible date. What would be the point? Santana is returning from a torn anterior caapsule in his left shoulder. That's the surgery from which it took Chien-Ming Wang exactly two years to return to the majors, and not at the level he was pitching pre-injury.
Alex (Mobile, AL)
Callis at Baseball America just ranked Wheeler as a higher prospect in the organization. Can we expect him in the rotation by 2013? And if so, does this look right: Santana, Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Gee/Dickey... with a young Familia perhaps closing?
Adam Rubin (1:05 PM)
Projecting rotation two years out is not exactly a precise science. I don't think ANYONE would have projected Chris Young or Chris Capuano in the April 2011 rotation in August 2009. Let's see if Santana will ever regain his past form. But since the Mets will be obligated to pay him $30 million in 2013 with the '14 buyout, let's put him in. Dillon Gee and Jon Niese are the easiest to project. That leaves two spots. I have my doubts about Zack Wheeler on Opening Day 2013 -- that seems kind of quick. He'll throw his first Double-A pitch next season. But I wouldn't rule out seeing Wheeler in 2013 at the major league level. Matt Harvey is much easier to forecast in the 2013 rotation. He's college-groomed and already in Double-A.
Will Nick Evans be back up when he's eligible in place of Nickeas, or will they go a different direction with F-Mart (if healthy) or someone else?
Adam Rubin (1:07 PM)
Players have to deserve promotions, and I'm not sure you could justify promoting Fernando Martinez on those grounds. And he's only been back since the weekend anyway. (Terry Collins told me he needed a player earlier this year, but saw all the AAA averages in the .220 range and said forget it -- that it would be a bad message to promote a player like that.) I believe when Nick Evans' 10 days in the minors are served, he very well may return. That was the intention when Carlos Beltran first was traded.
Paul (Austin, TX)
I have been impressed by Sandy's signings of role players such as Hairston, Capuano, Young (DL), and Paulino, just to name a few. Do you think these players would be re-signed for next year or do you think Sandy finds a new batch of role players?
Adam Rubin (1:09 PM)
Well, Paulino is under their control for next season because he will not have reached six years service time. And because he's arbitration eligible and making about $1.35 million or so this year, he will be back with a relatively modest salary. Chris Young's career is in jeopardy. He had the same surgery as Johan Santana. I imagine Capuano is someone they will entertain re-signing, but someone may give him an attractive two-year offer elsewhere off this season. I can see them re-signing Hairston for a bench role. As it is, they're going to have to fill right field unless they're going to ordain Lucas Duda the guy. And they're not enamored with Pagan, so they could be looking for two starting outfielders. If you have Hairston as an option to step in, that would help keep things stable.
Did you hear that kid in the booth call Reyes' home run yesterday? I think that kid has a future up there
Adam Rubin (1:10 PM)
First pitch too.
Adam, a little bit of talk about Sandy not trading Izzy, Byrdak, and Harriston, but isn't the time to move mediocre relievers and bench bats in august for org filler (C to C+ prospects)?
Adam Rubin (1:10 PM)
If the Mets had won the past two days and were 5 1/2 behind the Braves, perhaps the answer would be different. For appearance sake, they wanted to try to remain competitive. But if you can get something for those guys now, I'd do it.
Art Shamsky (williamsport pa.)
Adam, has anyone asked Sandy Alderson if there was any attempt by the mets to buy out Krod's option for next yr. the way the brewers did prior to trading him?
Adam Rubin (1:11 PM)
There was a report in the Times that K-Rod and his original agent told the Mets a few weeks before the trade that they, too, were uninterested in the option vesting. They felt they could do better than one year, $17.5 million on the open market.
Chris (Kew Gardens via Queens Village) [via mobile]
What's the starting OF look like in 2012?
Adam Rubin (1:12 PM)
I'm going to project Angel Pagan out, so it would be Jason Bay-FREE AGENT-Lucas Duda.
Can the Mets catch the Braves? 7.5 games out in 2 months seems very possible. What do you think?
Adam Rubin (1:13 PM)
I admire your optimism. There are a few teams in between too.
Dave (Wayne, NJ)
Hi Adam! Are you hearing anything regarding the Mets' negotiations with their draft picks, particularly Brandon Nimmo and some of the later picks (Phillip Evans?) Thanks so much!
Adam Rubin (1:13 PM)
Deadline is Aug. 15. I'm sure Nimmo will be announced by then.
Adam - does the amount of potential dollars the team can make from merchandising play a role when it comes to resigning Jose Reyes - besides David Wright I would imagine the team sells more Reyes related items than anyone else?
Adam Rubin (1:14 PM)
I don't think there's a tremendous amount of new Jose Reyes merchandise flying off the shelves at a rate that it would have any impact.
Are Turner and Murphy in the Mets' long-range plans as far as you know?
Adam Rubin (1:15 PM)
Sure. I would imagine Daniel Murphy goes to second base next year, with Ike Davis back, and Justin Turner has more of a reserve role, with starts at second base against some southpaws, and spelling David Wright at third base.
Michael Cardenas (Malverne, NY)
What do you think Terry has to do to get these ballplayers to walk in the ball park with confidence and play like the better team every night? Everyone's confidence level is not on the same page.
Adam Rubin (1:16 PM)
Not sure how you're drawing that conclusion. I'd say they've performed well for their talent level.
What is Santana's status? How many starts do you think he makes this year?
Adam Rubin (1:16 PM)
Pick a number, then take the under.
Outside of Byrdak/Hairston/Izzy, do you see anyone on the Roster who Sandy may trade this month once it becomes apparent that the Mets are not going to be contenders come Sept 1?
Adam Rubin (1:17 PM)
Those would be the guys. And because their salaries are minimal, they're probably waiver claims. So it would be dealing with the one team that claims a player, not an ability to trade them anywhere.
Hey Adam. Any idea when we will know who the PTBNL's are in the KRod deal?
Adam Rubin (1:18 PM)
Costa (Plandome, NY)
Going into 2012, the Mets cannot field a team that features Pagan and his sub-.700 OPS in center batting 5th or 6th. The problem is, who's out there to replace him in the $5m per year range?
Adam Rubin (1:18 PM)
Do you think that TC and the front office have seen enough of Murph and Pagan to not bring them back next year. Also do you think Murph's weekly and daily gaffes are wearing on his teammates.
Adam Rubin (1:19 PM)
Murphy is/was in the top 10 in the NL in batting. He never has and never will be a gifted fielder. But he works incredibly hard and can will himself to average defensively if he ever gets settled in one position.
who do you think the mets september callups could be, we've heard satin lutz martinez as position players maybe some other veteran position players. but what about the bullpen ? i dont want to see oconnor or dale thayer or even hampson ? do you think the mets call up holt whos been excellent lately as a reliver in double a ?
Adam Rubin (1:21 PM)
The 40-man roster guys -- or secondarily guys who need to be added to protect from the Rule 5 draft -- would be the candidates. Unfortunately, that's not a group of players demanding call-ups. Ruben Tejada should be back. And that makes me wonder whether it's even worth it to call up Jordany Valdespin, who would never play, and who has not been exposed to AAA yet and who has 28 errors or so as well as maturity issues. The waiver claim Mike Baxter would be a possibility. And Zach Lutz if he comes back from the concussion and stays healthy in August.
Do you get the sense that the Mets brass like Lucas Duda as a future piece? Could he realistically go into next year as our right fielder? He looks to be making real strides at the plate, driving the ball with more authority. Surprisingly decent arm in right as well.
Adam Rubin (1:22 PM)
If you're going to part with Pagan and need two outfielders, then Lucas Duda is certainly a possibility for 2012 Opening Day right field.
Keith (Stillwater, NY)
Why hasn't Brandon Nimmo been signed?
Adam Rubin (1:24 PM)
Same reason at the deficit ceiling debate didn't get done until the 11th hour -- because people stick to their guns until they're under the gun. The deadline is Aug. 15. It'll be done. You know how many of the top 16 picks in the entire draft are signed? Two, at least according to Baseball America's database.
Is Jaun Lagares a legitimate prospect?
Adam Rubin (1:25 PM)
I've had people speak very highly of him. Arm strength in outfield. Bat speed. Ability/willingness to go other way.
Do you think Justin Turner and Daniel Murphy are the main contenders competiting for 2B next spring?
Adam Rubin (1:26 PM)
Assuming Ike Davis is back, Daniel Murphy needs a spot to start, so I would say so. And then Ruben Tejada could be a backup middle infielder or the starter at shortstop, depending upon what happens with Jose Reyes.
Adam, what do you do with Murphy next year when Ike returns? Do you leave him at 2B and live with the glove?
Adam Rubin (1:26 PM)
We'll know later this week, but last time Ike spoke, he sounded like he was headed to surgery.
How was the mood in the clubhouse once Beltran was traded?
Adam Rubin (1:27 PM)
Ho-hum. Everyone knew it was going to happen. Then it did. Probably would have been more dispiriting if Sandy Alderson did trade Jason Isringhausen, Tim Byrdak, Ronny Paulino, etc. Then you'd seriously have to question how they could possibly finish the year even marginally competitive.
David (New York)
I shudder to ask, but why doesn't Ike just have the surgery and get ready for 2012?
Adam Rubin (1:28 PM)
Because you don't have surgery if you don't it. Dillon Gee presumed he needed surgery for a labrum issue a few years ago. The doctors told him just to rehab, and it's worked out pretty well. They supposedly waited as long as they can now without impacting 2012 availability, so decision has to be forthcoming very soon.
Glenn (Staten Island)
Hey Adam, do you know when Darin Gorski will be moved up to AA? Also, which players are earning a September call-up? Satin? Valdespin?
Adam Rubin (1:29 PM)
With Jeurys Familia back from the DL and Matt Harvey already up there, I'm not sure there's much room, but I have no asked. There's no harm in pitching in the Florida State League playoffs and getting that experience. St. Lucie won the first half.
I know you mentioned Fulmer should be making his debut shortly in the GCL but do you have a specific day?
Adam Rubin (1:30 PM)
I presume any day from what Adam Wogan made it sound like.
Is pagan dehydration something to be concerned about long term, or just something that happened?
Adam Rubin (1:31 PM)
He had blood tests that supposedly found nothing. I presume they were looking for anemia or something like that. I imagine it was a short-term, hydration-related issue and nothing more.
Adam, have you heard anything on the Picard lawsuit?
Adam Rubin (1:32 PM)
The hearing is Aug. 17 to listen to arguments and perhaps rule on the Wilpons' motion to dismiss, or rule in their favor on a summary judgment. They've seemed pretty giddy the lawsuit was moved from bankruptcy to federal court. We'll find out with the judge's ruling.
Is the front office's opinion on Thole growing sour?
Adam Rubin (1:33 PM)
I'm sure it's not euphoric, but when you have a catcher making close to the major league minimum and don't have a ton of cash, sometimes you have to be patient.
Doob (Cologne, Germany )
Do you agree with the notion that while the Mets minor league system still lacks high-ceiling prospects beyond Harvey, Wheeler and eventually Nimmo, it does have a plethora of solid 2nd tier prospects that project as future major leaguers, albeit not as "future core" players ? If so, doesn't it make sense to keep Izzy, Byrdak, Harris & others if a trade merely brings you another Zack Lutz, Brad Holt or Josh Edgin in return - when you already have a bunch of those ?
Adam Rubin (1:33 PM)
I don't think plethora is the correct word.
Yu Darvish. Are the Mets interested if he is posted? He'll be expensive, but the SP FA market is pretty thin. Also, if the Mets REALLY want to get butts in the seats and eyes on SNY next year for a team that will still probably be average, they would be hard pressed to find a bigger attraction than signing the top Japanese pitcher.
Adam Rubin (1:34 PM)
I stopped at "he'll be really expensive ..."
Jo Jo B (Queens)
Johan, Niese, Pelfrey, Dickey & Gee... isn't that an excellent rotation next season? Seems like the Mets could contend with that group. What do you think?
Adam Rubin (1:35 PM)
Excellent? Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Oswalt is excellent.
Adam, I think the Mets biggest weakness, that they don't have an answer for next year, is the bullpen and specifically the closers role. Beato and Parnell have terrific stuff but have been inconsistent. If they don't show us something by the end of the year, do you think they will go out and get a free agent clsoer as long as he is not a type a free agent?
Adam Rubin (1:36 PM)
I don't think Sandy Alderson's model for constructing a team calls for a high-priced closer.
I disagree with you on that Rubin. The Mets depth has improved greatly on the farm this year and even Callis has said we're knocking on the door of the top 10.
Adam Rubin (1:38 PM)
I've seen a fair amount of Triple-A and Double-A games this year. Everyone is entitled to an opinion. They called up a third catcher when they traded Carlos Beltran. If you're asking me close to major league ready, I would point to that.
Any new word on the Einhorn situation? Last I saw it was being held up by JPMorgan Chase.
Adam Rubin (1:38 PM)
Bud Selig and sources with ties to both sides believe the completion of the deal will be announced this month.
For as great as murph's batting avg is, the fact is he only has 10 more RBI's than Bay. Do you really think Murph is a resonable option at 2B...you can't keep giving teams extra outs...and giving free outs on the base paths. I admire murph's toughness but he just doesn't know how to play the game. I'd rather see Tejada get a shot at 2B (assuming reyes is back)
Adam Rubin (1:40 PM)
And at which position are you making up the offense compared with Chase Utley, Dan Uggla and next year Emilio Bonifacio, when he moves to 2B with the Marlins?
Do you think Nieuwenhuis could potentially take over for Pagan in center next year?
Adam Rubin (1:40 PM)
He's not going to be handed the job Opening Day since he finished this year inactive following shoulder surgery.
hey adam, really curious to know why Zack wheeler is such a top prospect and yet is still in class a at the age of 21. Most stud pitchers it seems are at AAA at that time. And do you think with arm extension that looks similar to strausberg Giants foresaw arm issues?
Adam Rubin (1:41 PM)
He was drafted out of high school two years ago, so high-A is an appropriate level. I do not know why he would have seemingly graduated high school older than his peer group, if I've understood things correctly.
Adam - have the Phiilies become the team we thought the Mets were going to be after 2006?
Adam Rubin (1:42 PM)
Acquiring big-name free agents? Building a juggernaut? Yes. But, I would caution, they're going to get to the back end of these contracts in a few years and their window will have passed.
Do the Mets view either Kirk Niuewenhuis or Matt Den Dekker as potential long-term solutions in CF, or more as backups?
Adam Rubin (1:43 PM)
Den Dekker still has a lot to prove, but he's definitely opened eyes. He's not an Opening Day 2012 candidate either, though.
Do you think the Mets can get a legit return for Pelfrey and Pagan this offseason, or will they just be happy to rid themselves of the arbitration raises?
Adam Rubin (1:44 PM)
I'm sure they'll try to make deals with less cost-conscious teams. But it's hard to justify either making $6 million or more via arbitration, if that's what it would come to.
Is there a prospect that you have personally seen that you feel is in line for good things in the Mets organization that hasn't really been discussed much?
Adam Rubin (1:45 PM)
Going into the season my answer would have been right-hander Brandon Moore. But I saw him pitch once this year and he had almost abandoned his two-seamer and was throwing way too many sliders -- seven in a row the game I saw. I wouldn't discount him as a major league reliever if he gets back to what he was doing with Savannah in 2010.
What happened to Pat Misch? Is he a viable candidate for the bullpen in 2012?
Adam Rubin (1:46 PM)
Pat Misch is in the AAA rotation. He'll be a minor league free agent after the season. I can see him re-signing as inventory, but I doubt he'd be a serious candidate for Opening Day roster in 2012.
Adam Rubin (1:46 PM)
Anyway, need to pack up computer and head to the stadium. Thanks for joining me.