Adam Rubin

  (1:59 PM)

Thanks for joining me. It's the first Port St. Lucie-based chat of 2012. Let's get started ...

Dan (Manhattan)

Hey Adam, with all of the potential question marks with the rotation, how could they not bring in one pitcher to compete for a job?

Adam Rubin

  (2:01 PM)

$. Bottom line is Dillon Gee is not established, even though he had a terrific first half, and Johan Santana's health -- even with everyone optimistic -- is not established. And there's a dangerously thin safety net. Really, we're talking Miguel Batista, Chris Schwinden, Jeremy Hefner and Garrett Olson right now. And maybe Chris Young at some point in the middle of the year, if he re-signs.

Adam Rubin

  (2:01 PM)

$. Bottom line is Dillon Gee is not established, even though he had a terrific first half, and Johan Santana's health -- even with everyone optimistic -- is not established. And there's a dangerously thin safety net. Really, we're talking Miguel Batista, Chris Schwinden, Jeremy Hefner and Garrett Olson right now. And maybe Chris Young at some point in the middle of the year, if he re-signs.

Tony (Pt Jeff, NY)

with the payroll at 90MM approx, will ticket prices come down by a similar ppercent? will PSL money be refunded to offset the lower-end product being put on field?

Adam Rubin

  (2:03 PM)

I think you're being sarcastic, but ... ticket prices are modestly reduced, on average this year. And they are now switching to "dynamic ticket pricing." That means, if you project the Mets to stink, that you'd be paying lower as the game nears than if you bought a ticket early. That's because the price of tickets supposedly will fluctuate based on demand, while not going below the season-ticket-holder price. (The reason for lowering prices if demand if low is so the Mets can try to maximize how much they sell in-season, and people just don't go to StubHub or elsewhere where tickets are re-sold. But with the season-ticket-holder floor in place, it still stands to reason the resellers will have lower prices if people dump tickets.)

Chris Fiegler (Latham,NY)

How do you think that the New York Mets will Look in 2012?

Adam Rubin

  (2:04 PM)

Fifth place.

Michael C. (Westport, CT)

Can't something be said for watching a bunch of young players develop while getting really cheap tickets to major league games? Why does the season have to be all gloom-and-doom?

Adam Rubin

  (2:06 PM)

They're really not introducing young new players yet, if you're referring to Matt Harvey, etc. That's 2013. So we're talking about Lucas Duda and Ike Davis? That's fine. I wouldn't put Josh Thole in that category, or really Dillon Gee. Are they major leaguers? Sure. But it's not like we're biding time waiting for them to turn into the next David Wright and Jose Reyes, or whatever the equivalent would be for their positions.

Will (LIC)

My understanding from your recent column about the team's horrific financial situation is that the team has enormous loan payment obligations coming due in the next 1-2 years BUT will likely be able to refinance those obligations (i.e., kick the can down the road). Now I would imagine that the only thing the Mets can tell these lenders to persuade them to give them more time to repay is this: "In a few years, Wright, Santana and Bay come off the books, so we'll have an additional $55M in liquidity." So I guess what I'm asking is, should we realistically expect the Mets to re-invest any of that money back into the team?

Adam Rubin

  (2:09 PM)

I'd quibble with a few of your statements. The massive loans are fully due in those 1-2 years, but there are sizable interim interest payments, plus whatever legal judgment occurs and that $25M MLB loan and $40M Bank of America bridge loan. If cash flow is an issue, anything can trip them up. There's no guarantee banks will refinance those massive loans too unless there's progress, although the overall value of MLB teams has to bode well for that. But the Mets would see to be operating on austerity for at least one more offseason, until Jason Bay and Johan Santana's contracts potentially come off the books after the 2013 season.

Andy (Huntington, NY)

My expectations have been lowered just about as far as they can go, which leads me to this question - why do you suppose they spent so much (relatively speaking) on Francisco? Based on the current state of the roster/payroll, I don't think it would have raised too many eyebrows if they had gone with someone like Ramirez to close (or, as it turned out, cheaper options like Cordero or Lidge).

Adam Rubin

  (2:12 PM)

You've seen the Mets' past administrations look at the previous year's deficiency and try to patch that up. Lacking power? Sign Jason Bay. Etc. I think the logic was that it can be demoralizing not to be able to hold games late, and there's a big different between 85 losses and 100 losses on a team's psyche, etc. They obviously tried to time the market, while being aware there were more free-agent closers than jobs available. Perhaps they got it slightly wrong allotting a combined $9 million to Rauch and Francisco for 2012 salary. But they were cognizant that prices should have been depressed because of the excess supply and tried to jump at the right time.

Alex (Lin Island)

Any chance of a Victor Cruz or Jeremy Lin type surprise for the Mets in 2012? Possibly a young starting pitcher called up mid-season?

Adam Rubin

  (2:13 PM)

I really don't expect to see a glut of players making their major league debuts in-season, barring perhaps Matt Harvey and/or Jeurys Familia in September. If Andres Torres falters, Kirk Nieuwenhuis can get a look. I suppose Lucas Duda would be the closest thing to have the potential to really take off, but he's sort of a known quantity already.

pete (ny)

adam -- how long is francisco's leash as our closer -- i mean this tandem wasnt very successful in tor last year

Adam Rubin

  (2:14 PM)

There's not much of an alternative. It's Ramirez to Rauch to Francisco. The order can always be juggled at some point. But unless Bobby Parnell really finds something, those are the arms in some order.

Bill (NYC)

Adam, give me a prediction: star of spring training who comes out of nowhere to push for a roster spot (I'll call this the Blaine Boyer special) is: ?

Adam Rubin

  (2:16 PM)

Don't see it. Sandy Alderson said a couple of days ago that the roster is basically set barring injury -- except for two, or maybe three, positions. The openings are lefty-hitting outfielder (Adam Loewen, Mike Baxter or whomever they bring in at the end of camp) and last reliever. Mike Nickeas was the other one up in the air, but not quite to the same degree. So I suppose to answer your question I would have to name a reliever coming from nowhere. Not sure whom that would be. Josh Stinson did well in September, so there's always a chance with him. Robert Carson, I suppose, is a wild card as a second LH in the pen with Tim Byrdak. But he's going to need to demonstrate a ton of control and have a lot of things break right to break camp with the team.

Frank Calamia (Staten island New York)

Do you think David Wright will be a life long Met and also how do you think the Mets will fair this season

Adam Rubin

  (2:18 PM)

I don't know. And that's not a cop out. I don't think David or his agents know either. If it was normal with the Mets' finances, I'd say they'd always pay him a premium, like the Yankees do with Jeter, and it would get done. Let's see if the Mets win, too. I actually got the vibe yesterday talking to David that if the Mets seem like they're going to be uncompetitive when he's a free agent, he could very well walk. I do believe him though that he'd like to finish his career as a Met while playing on competitive teams and being paid a competitive amount.

Peter (Manhattan)

Does it seem strange to you, esp. in a depressing year, to have Sandy Alderson joking around so much, including about Mets finances, being reimbursed for gas, getting his wife a gift card at IHOP, etc.?

Adam Rubin

  (2:21 PM)

I think it's well-intentioned and trying to make light of the situation, but my personal opinion is it's not a good idea. It cements perceptions among fans -- PERCEPTIONS -- that he's an MLB plant, kind of divorced from his legacy being impacted by what happens with the Mets. It's like it's their misfortune, not his. At least I think that's how it's being perceived by a segment of the fan base. The tweets will get more serious in-season. They have to. People would revolt if there were jokes being made with a sub-.500 team. Sandy Alderson went to Dartmouth undergrad and Harvard law. I'm positive he's cognizant of that.

Correy (New Jersey )

do you think the mets could be the padres of this year and suprise some people ?

Adam Rubin

  (2:22 PM)

Not in the NL East. Rank the 25 starting pitchers in the division and see where the Mets' guys lie. That will answer your question.

Joe (Spencerport, NY)

Adam, can you please make sense of the deal with SNY buying stakes in the team? Aren't they owned by the same people? From here, it looks like robbing Peter to pay Paul. & neither Peter, nor Paul plan to hold onto Wright.

Adam Rubin

  (2:24 PM)

For tax purposes, etc., they're separate corporations. (I'll leave out a Mitt Romney reference here.) SNY is profitable, albeit with debt of its own. So if the Mets cannot borrow, SNY buying shares in the Mets gives the Mets money, and SNY has access to cash. If you had two businesses -- a failing restaurant and a profitable pet store -- your one store could loan your other store money.

Justin (hoboken)

Why do you even have chats while the Wilpons still own the team?

Adam Rubin

  (2:25 PM)

Because I wouldn't be doing chats for the next 30 years then.

Jer T (The Island of Staten)

I believe many fans were upset that Dan Warthan?s services were retained as the team?s pitching coach. How solid is his footing on the position. Do you have any concerns with him as pitching coach, especially with the Fab Four pitchers (Harvey, Wheeler, Famiela, Meija) they have in their organization that will be on the major level within the next 1-2 years?

Adam Rubin

  (2:26 PM)

Why would he be in trouble? Teams aren't run by the fans, and I say that respectfully. How could many fans make an educated judgment about Dan Warthen's ability to get the most out of the potential of his pitchers? Are fans cognizant of Warthen doing a game plan, and Ronny Paulino disregarding it?

Frank (White Plains)

What are your thoughts on Murphy at 2nd? Potential to be average defensively with valuable bat or just holding the spot for Havens/Valdespin, etc?

Adam Rubin

  (2:28 PM)

I don't know that Murphy will be average, but he'll will himself to a certain passable level. You have to remember he has been moved from third to left field to first to second to first and now back to second. He needs time at one spot to get acclimated. ... Also, he was hitting .320 when he was injured last year. He's not exactly a placeholder for a minor leaguer.

Steve (CA)

Do you expect to see a lot more balls flying out of the park with the fences coming in or no real impact?

Adam Rubin

  (2:29 PM)

Definitely more HRs. We plotted David Wright's fly balls over the past three seasons. Thirteen more homers would have been hit by him. And that doesn't even incorporate the psychological benefit of having less-intimidating dimensions. I believe we concluded there would be one extra Mets HR each three-game series. Not exactly fireworks, but more offense. Of course, the other team has the same dimensions. And it will be detrimental to pitchers' ERAs.

Billy (Boston)

Adam, can you blame the fanbase for just wanting baseball to start? I'm sick of all the litigation and financial talk and want baseball. I'm sure when you took the position with ESPN NY you couldn't imagine being a whiz in legal and financial documents.

Adam Rubin

  (2:30 PM)

It's more fun for me too when they win. Upbeat players. Lots of interest in stories. At least there's an emphasis on the farm system now, which is something I like following. After we conclude the chat, I'm going to write up something on Matt Harvey as well as center field prospects Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Matt den Dekker.

Mike (New Rochelle)

Thoughts on Kirk Niewhenhius (i think that is the correct spelling)? Chances to see him in CF this year if Torres doesn't get off to hot start?

Adam Rubin

  (2:31 PM)

Check the blog about 5 p.m. for a full write-up about him, with quotes. If Andres Torres falters, he has the best chance to fill the void. Otherwise, we're talking Scott Hairston as a plug, I think.

Matt (NY)

Honestly, I wish the Wilpons would take a page from metsGM's playbook. Make lite of their situation. I think what offends Mets fans the most is the lack of honesty. "We did nothing wrong" or "We're slashing payroll for baseball reasons" or "we expect to be compeitive" turns off fans. If they came out and said "We're going through a lean time, but we believe a full rebuild is the best thing for the franchise, and if you have patience, we can all look forward to brighter days," fans would be receptive to that. At least as fans we know we can trust Sandy, and that he has a firm grasp on reality. Every joke he makes makes me identify with him more. MLB plant or otehrwise, he feels for us fans, and understands how we feel. The Wilpons, for all their supposed concern about public opinion, have never realised this. A little honesty goes a long way.

Adam Rubin

  (2:34 PM)

When the Wilpons said Madoff has no effect on the Mets, it was an outright lie. They even deferred players' salaries because Madoff returns allegedly were 18 percent a year, so they made money by delaying payments to players (with some interest). You erode your credibility when you say things like that. You don't have to open your books. But you could have said: Look, we thought we had a lot of money with Madoff that now doesn't exist. It stings. We're going to do our best to minimize the impact on the ballclub, but some Mets business was invested in his funds. Bear with us and we'll get through.

Ron (Tempe)

If the season starts poorly for some of the young players (i.e. Tejada, Thole, Gee, Duda, Murphy), will we just ride it out and let them play every day? Do we have other options?

Adam Rubin

  (2:35 PM)

You have Ronny Cedeno as a backup middle infield hedge. Nothing in the way of a catching alternative. We went over starting pitching. Paper thin there too.

Adam Rubin

  (2:35 PM)

Anyway, thanks for joining me. I'm going to post something on Matt Harvey on the blog first, probably before 4 p.m. And hopefully something on Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Matt den Dekker before 5 p.m. I suppose I'll be back here next Thursday.