Adam Rubin

  (2:00 PM)

Thanks for joining me, live from Port St. Lucie. Let's get started ...

Alex (Anaheim)

What are the odds Satin makes the team out of camp?

Adam Rubin

  (2:02 PM)

Not good, barring an injury. Justin Turner is going to be the backup, righty-hitting corner infielder. So I imagine Josh will go to Triple-A and continue to work on his versatility. The bench should be Turner, middle infielder Ronny Cedeno, Scott Hairston, Mike Nickeas (or maybe Rob Johnson) and a lefty-hitting outfielder. Right now that's Adam Loewen or Mike Baxter, but someone can get acquired in March.

Muddy (Hicksville)

Could you possibly give YOUR side of the Kazmir trade? Was it Peterson, Leiter, Franco or Duquette? And is it true Scott had "gangsta" issues?

Adam Rubin

  (2:04 PM)

It was a combination of things. The Mets were in semi-contention for the first time since the Wilpons bought out Doubleday, and Jeff particularly wanted to go for it. Bill Livesey, one of the "super scouts," had a past connection to Zambrano from the Yankees. Al Leiter and John Franco had a short window before retirement and wanted to win, and they had the ears of the owners. Rick Peterson thought Kazmir was susceptible to injury, and that he needed significant more innings in the minors to be ready for the majors anyway.

Johnson (Nashville TN)

What do you think happens to Collins this year if the Mets finish with only 70ish wins? Everyone understands this is a rebuilding year, but with Wright possibly gone after July does management want to start fresh again...

Adam Rubin

  (2:17 PM)

Sorry. Little internet disruption ... let's try again ...

Adam Rubin

  (2:17 PM)

Collins' 2013 option was picked up. That's not a major commitment, but if the team plays hard and fundamentally sound, there's a limit to the manager's impact on wins and losses and I bet we continue to see him in the dugout beyond this season.

Dennis (NYC)

Any thoughts about the Mets medical staff letting Ike Davis run out there with a lung infection? Why not make him wait it out and at the very least take medication?

Adam Rubin

  (2:18 PM)

Or you can give them credit for catching something in a physical and checking it out, something Davis himself was unaware of.

Matt (Connecticut)

What is happening at 2B-Murphy or Justin Turner?

Adam Rubin

  (2:18 PM)

Daniel Murphy is the guy, barring injury. Justin Turner will have to be versatile. TC says he'll even back up Ike Davis at first base.

Scott (NY)

Do you believe the new dimensions of Citi will have a strongly adverse affect flyball pitchers like Pelf?

Adam Rubin

  (2:19 PM)

Ideally, Pelfrey will rediscover his sinker and that's a non-issue. Certainly balls in the air will be more likely to leave the park. But it's not exactly going to be Citizens Bank Park. Studies show it should be fairly neutral -- right in the middle of MLB ballparks, or still ever-so-slightly favoring pitchers.

Phil (LIU Brooklyn)

What's Reese Haven's upside? If he's healthy, is he pushing for Murphy's spot?

Adam Rubin

  (2:20 PM)

Reese can hit. He's probably still learning second base, since he's been so injured since shifting from shortstop. Reese will start the year in the minors. Perhaps we see him in September, or earlier if Murph were injured and he's tearing it up in the minors.

Matt (NY)

Was TC trying to be hyperbolic with his sac bunting comment? A good saber guy like Sandy should know that you never give away a free out like that. With a pitcher and in very select situations, sure, but not leading the league by 10. That comment made me cringe.

Adam Rubin

  (2:21 PM)

I hope/think he meant improve the efficiency of bunting to lead the league by 10, not increase the frequency. Pitchers did not do as well in that category as he would like. They were practicing bunting today.

Kevin (FL)

Is Collins really angry at Tejada regarding him not being in PSL early, or do the quotes look worse than they are? He does realize that Ruben isn't doing anything wrong, right?

Adam Rubin

  (2:22 PM)

Angry isn't correct. But definitely disappointed. TC actually asked Tejada to work out in November at the Port St. Lucie complex with the strength guy to get stronger, and then to come to camp in mid-January so he really could start getting ready to play full-time major league shortstop. Tejada actually hasn't been reachable this winter, and that has been a disappointment to TC.

AJ (Nyack)

Are there any of the non-roster or minor league invitees that you believe has a solid chance to end up on the 25 man roster and if you had to pick just one, who would it be?

Adam Rubin

  (2:23 PM)

I suppose a second lefty for the bullpen such as Chuck James. There's really not a lot of competition beyond 1-2 spots in the bullpen, lefty-hitting outfielder and whether Mike Nickeas can hold onto the backup catcher role (with Rob Johnson seemingly the primary alternative).

Tom Davison (New York, NY)

Can you think of one logical reason why all 10 shares would need to close at the same time? It just seems to make little sense that a cash-strapped team would turn down 140 million now to have 200 million in a month or two. It's not like the 7 shares closing would have any effect on the remaining shares. Am I missing something?

Adam Rubin

  (2:24 PM)

Don't understand that either.

Bill (NYC)

How did this Kazmir thing get reported so oddly? First, they were going to watch him last Fri, then it was reported that, in fact, they didn't send anyone because they "simply had no interest", then yesterday Buster cites them as being a "finalist", then Sandy comes back and says while they're open-minded, they have yet to see him at all. Seems like a LOT of contradiction in there on what should be a pretty minor story.

Adam Rubin

  (2:24 PM)

Maybe some people are reporting things correctly and some aren't. I'd take Buster's reporting any day.

Steve (Charlotte)

Hey Adam... i realize the Mets are pretty broke, but wouldn't help a lot of they spend a little extra and brought in Oswalt? (if he would even come to the mets). It's not like he's going to break the bank at this point.

Adam Rubin

  (2:25 PM)

It would help. It's not happening.

Peter (Astoria)

Given the lack of pitching depth, should the Mets take a look at Wakefield? Notwithstanding his retirement, my understanding is that if teams call, he'll listen.

Adam Rubin

  (2:26 PM)

R.A. Dickey said it was Boston or retirement for Wakefield, and they're close. I didn't poke around beyond that, because the Mets are not spending money, and I doubt they'd employ two knuckleballers in a rotation anyway.

Chris (New Jersey)

If the Mets' players live up to their potential, such as Wright, Bay, Davis, and so on... Can the Mets make a push for the playoffs?

Adam Rubin

  (2:26 PM)

Not seeing it. Division too strong. Pitching inferior to rest of NL East.

Chris (NY)

Anybody in camp appear out of shape?

Adam Rubin

  (2:26 PM)

Yes

Ron (Tempe)

If/when injuries occur this year - who do you see as being the 1st few call-ups from the minors (position players and pitchers)? Hopefully some new faces and not old retreads (like Batista)?

Adam Rubin

  (2:27 PM)

It's ultra-thin. Miguel Batista, either as the long man or at Triple-A, is probably the first call-up for a starting pitcher. Catcher would be Rob Johnson (if he doesn't beat out Nickeas). Kirk Nieuwenhuis, if Andres Torres is injured and Kirk is clicking at Triple-A, could be a first-half call-up.

Matt (Connecticut)

Within the last two years, has Mejia proved enough to be a legitimate starter for the Mets' future? What have you seen from him so far this Spring?

Adam Rubin

  (2:30 PM)

He just starting throwing on a mound today. He had Tommy John surgery last May, and won't be available for regular duty until this May. I asked Paul DePodesta whether Mejia is a starter or a reliever going forward. He replied, "Open question." DePodesta added that his role this year is not necessarily his 2013 role. And, DePodesta added, that the Rangers have had success introducing players as relievers and then making them starters later. Combined with TC saying Mejia may not need any more minor league seasoning after his rehab and I took that as he could work in the major league pen in the second half if needed, then potentially go back to starting in 2013 if they decide so.

Chris (NY)

Is the interest in Kazmir genuine or is it a PR move?

Adam Rubin

  (2:30 PM)

Genuine.

Chris (NY)

Do you believe any Mets will be considered for trades by the ASB?

Adam Rubin

  (2:30 PM)

I believe they'll be sufficiently far back from the pack that they would quality as a seller by then, and certainly by July 31. Hope I'm wrong for everyone's sake watching, but don't think so.

Jova (NYC)

When do you see the Wilpons selling the team, or do you see them not selling the team despite the Mets hemorrhaging money and their financial woes?

Adam Rubin

  (2:31 PM)

Don't see them selling majority stake unless they lose badly in this Madoff-related lawsuit that's scheduled for trial March 19.

Matt (Connecticut)

What is the latest on the RF position battle? What have we seen from Jacobs' so far, or should we see Scotty there full time?

Adam Rubin

  (2:32 PM)

RF battle? Lucas Duda.

Chris (NY)

Any indication so far about the Mets willing to cut Carrasco?

Adam Rubin

  (2:32 PM)

I'm sure they'll eat the $1.2 million if he's terrible in spring training. They ate $18 million last spring training for Ollie and Luis Castillo.

Chris (NY)

Would the Mets consider trading Santana if he pitches well and they are willing to eat part of the contract?

Adam Rubin

  (2:34 PM)

The Mets would consider trading him, but no one will touch him since he's owed $31 million alone in 2013 with 2014 buyout. I mean, the Mets might have to eat $25 million next year for that to happen, and that's after Santana proves he can pitch. Ain't happening. He's a Met through at least July 2013, and probably for the duration of the contract.

Damon (Queens)

Which bull pen pitchers and contenders have looked the most impressive in their bp sessions so far

Adam Rubin

  (2:34 PM)

Nothing has really happened yet. Most major leaguers can hit a glove with no batter, to be honest.

Josh (CT)

Im surprised Izzy signing a minor-league deal with the Angels... Was it about being on a winning team?

Adam Rubin

  (2:35 PM)

Don't know. I'm sure he wasn't going to Houston just to pitch, though.

John (NY)

Followup on the trades questions - which pieces would be most enticing to other clubs and would the Mets consider parting with them?

Adam Rubin

  (2:36 PM)

Jon Rauch has a one-year deal and would be marketable at the trade deadline I presume. Same with Tim Byrdak. Maybe Mike Pelfrey, I suppose, although he's under team's control through 2013. Beyond that, hard to say. Mets mostly have young pieces now under their control, not guys in the final seasons of contracts.

Chris (NY)

Did the Mets opinion of Pelfrey improve this off-season or was his return a matter of need and cost?

Adam Rubin

  (2:37 PM)

$5.8 million on a one-year commitment actually is not that much by MLB standards. Chris Capuano got $10 million for two years as a free agent with the Dodgers.

Josh (CT)

Any updates on a possible Chris Young signing?

Adam Rubin

  (2:38 PM)

Terry Collins said Young was throwing at 180 feet on flat ground and the reports were positive. But this is the same surgery Johan had, and Young had it last May. So I'm skeptical of what Young could contribute this year. It seems though that Young would have an open invitation to a minor league deal with the Mets with limited financial commitment on the part of the organization.

Vic (Woodside, NY)

To answer the question about why all or nothing on the $200 million, typically any given investor will not go in until he knows all the rest are putting their money in. So, it gets done simultaneously. Makes sense -- if a business tells me they need $200M to stay afloat and then I put in my $10M and then everyone else bails, odds are I just lost $10M.

Adam Rubin

  (2:39 PM)

Plausible. But if SNY is buying four $20 million shares, why wouldn't they just do it now, and then the Mets could pay off the MLB debt and Bank of America bridge loan.

Ron (Tempe)

Is Santana's performance the difference between 100 losses and a semi-decent (75-85 win) season?

Adam Rubin

  (2:40 PM)

Well, you're asking if Miguel Batista to Santana in the rotation is worth 13-23 extra wins. Don't think mathematically that's the case, but obviously there's a difference between those two.

Kevin (FL)

Follow up on the Tejada question: some outlets are getting on Collins for publicly criticizing him on the lack of being early, your thoughts?

Adam Rubin

  (2:41 PM)

It was not malicious. TC even said maybe he's being selfish. I wouldn't have said that, but the tone was not outlandish.

Dan (Brooklyn)

Do you think Kirk Nieuwenhuis is capable of being full-time centerfielder at some point this season.

Adam Rubin

  (2:42 PM)

Kirk isn't a sure thing, but he's got a chance. This is only if Andres Torres falters, though. I'm not sure everyone is sold on Nieuwenhuis being a CF as opposed to a corner outfielder, but scouts I know think he can handle center despite his size.

Fred (NYC)

Does your journalistic integrity preclude naming said players who are "out-of-shape" at camp this year?

Adam Rubin

  (2:43 PM)

Not journalistic integrity. There's no one obese. A few guys can afford to lose a few pounds. And they will.

Jackson (NYC)

With the bullpen primarily set who are the contenders for the remaining 1 or 2 spots?

Adam Rubin

  (2:44 PM)

Locks should be Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramirez, Tim Byrdak and Manny Acosta. I still believe Bobby Parnell will earn the No. 6 spot, although he has a minor league option remaining so he has to earn it. Beyond that, you can have a second LH such as Chuck James (or Garrett Olson), a long man such as Miguel Batista, or guys you may be familiar with such as Pedro Beato or Josh Stinson.

Dennis (NYC)

If they are out of it at the deadline, do you see the Mets willing (or even in position financially) to eat part of Jason Bay's contract in a trade?

Adam Rubin

  (2:46 PM)

If they're out of it, part of the reason probably is because he's not performing. And the little secret is that it really could be three years left on the contract now. He has a vesting option that makes the four-year, $66 million deal a five-year, $80 million deal if he has 600 plate appearances in 2013 or 500 apiece in 2012 and '13. That's very attainable and pretty much makes him unmoveable too.

Matt (Connecticut)

Will it be easier for Murph to play at 2B with reduced errors? And, will Justin be backing up both Murph at second and Ike (on occasion) at first base, and is Daniel Murphy mainly 2B or can we see Justin at second and him at first on a rare occasion?

Adam Rubin

  (2:48 PM)

Murph will benefit from sticking to one position. He has bounced around so much between third base and left field and first base and second base. Justin is probably primarily a pinch-hitter and corner infielder now, since you have Ronny Cedeno as a middle infielder. But if there's a tough lefty or they want to give Murph off, I'm sure Turner will still get some starts at second base. Things never go as scripted, so I bet we see Turner and Cedeno on the field together in the middle at some point this season.

Harry (Babylon, NY)

Where does the team see Pedro Beato's role this year(minors?) and going forward?

Adam Rubin

  (2:49 PM)

He had to stay up at the major league level last year as a Rule 5 pick. Now, he's Mets property and can be optioned to Triple-A. Unless he's really, really good this spring, I bet he starts the year in the minors. The organization would like to use him as a starter under that scenario. Beato does not like starting. So pitching coach Dan Warthen calls it "50-50" as far as handicapping what Beato would do as a minor leaguer.

Chris (NY)

Do you think Alderson regrets taking the GM position at this point?

Adam Rubin

  (2:50 PM)

He has 2.5 million reasons or so a year not to regret it, but I'm sure he did not know the gravity of the financial constraints when he accepted. At least he has a sense of humor about it.

Nick (NY)

How long is the leash on Andres Torres? And if he falters which OF prospect has the best chance to find his way to Flushing this summer?

Adam Rubin

  (2:51 PM)

When you trade for a guy, you don't want to believe you're wrong, so I'm sure he'd get a long leash. And I bet there would be an intermediate step between leadoff hitter and benching, such as moving down in the order. It would be interesting to see if the Mets turned to Scott Hairston at that point or they felt Kirk Nieuwenhuis was ready. The earlier such a thing would happen in the season, the more likely Hairston would be a stopgap. And I kind of shudder to think of a Bay-Hairston-Duda outfield, defensively.

Nick (NY)

How will the seating work in between the current and former left-field wall?

Adam Rubin

  (2:52 PM)

They'll have a row of seats between the old and neww wall in LF, as well as additional seating where that Mo's Zone crevice was in right field.

Reid (NYC)

What's the mets minor league options at catcher? With too many questions surrounding Thole (batting, defense & game calling) is it really realistic to expect to see him all year or do the mets have a prospect we haven't seen

Adam Rubin

  (2:53 PM)

No upper-level prospect on the way. Kai Groaneur and Francisco Pena are the two higher-level "prospects," and neither was even invited to big league camp. So it's the free agents they signed from outside the system as the safety net -- Rob Johnson, Lucas May and Vinny Rottino.

Chris (Barbosa)

Ruben who do you see closing games for the Mets in the begining of the season?

Adam Rubin

  (2:54 PM)

Frank Francisco is the closer. No question.

Tom (NJ)

What do you think it would take for Wright to be offered a contract extension this year?

Adam Rubin

  (2:54 PM)

Not sure the timing, but next winter at the earliest I imagine. He's under their control with a team option for 2013 anyway. And the team's finances will be clearer then, so it makes more sense to wait.

Ron (Tempe)

Who are the grittiest "gamers" on this team? Any young guys?

Adam Rubin

  (2:54 PM)

Daniel Murphy.

Danny C (NY)

Do you think Wheeler or Harvey can make the rotation at any point in the season?

Adam Rubin

  (2:55 PM)

Harvey in September, possibly, to set up a 2013 rotation bid.

Danny C (NY)

Do you expect Mejia to pitch at any point this year? If he can, do you think he can be effective?

Adam Rubin

  (2:55 PM)

He should be ready for minor league games in May. And I mentioned earlier I can see him in the major league pen in the second half, reading between the lines.

Harry (Babylon, NY)

Based on their contracts what is the chance Jason Bay stays a Met longer than David Wright?

Adam Rubin

  (2:56 PM)

Well, Bay probably vests for 2014. And David is an open question after 2013. So if you told me only one would be a Met in 2014, I'd bet Bay. But I'm not sold on them parting with Wright.

Chris (NY)

If the mets acquire Kazmir will he be viewed as a starter or reliever?

Adam Rubin

  (2:56 PM)

I imagine he would be used as a starter in the minors for a little bit.

Chris (NJ)

Ruben, over/under 75 wins for the Mets.

Adam Rubin

  (2:57 PM)

Under

Steve (Rochester)

Assuming rotation of Johan, RA, Niese, Pelf, Gee....who is on call as spot starter or injury replacement?

Adam Rubin

  (2:57 PM)

Miguel Batista is probably first on the list. Other options are Chris Schwinden, Jeremy Hefner (claimed off waivers) and ex-Pirates left-handre Garrett Olson.

Matt (Connecticut)

Frank Francisco-closer no question right?

Adam Rubin

  (2:57 PM)

No question. And Jon Rauch on the nights Francisco is not available.

John (NY)

Is there an innings limit on Johan's contact for 2014 to kick in a la ABs for Bay?

Adam Rubin

  (2:59 PM)

Yes. It will be much harder for him to achieve than Bay, especially since they say that even a healthy Santana will be limited to no more than 27 or 28 starts. His contract vests for 2014 with 215 innings in 2013 or 420 innings combined between this year and next.

james (new york)

what do the mets think about Den Dekker

Adam Rubin

  (3:00 PM)

Definitely needs more development time. He only has a half-season of Double-A under his belt, and needs to cut down dramatically on his strikeouts. But he can run and catch the ball in the outfield. Not a can't-miss prospect, but he's got a chance. They only invited two non-roster prospects to camp -- den Dekker and Matt Harvey. That says something.

Chris (NJ)

What about Parnell will he close games?

Adam Rubin

  (3:01 PM)

Only at Buffalo. If he makes the team, he's going to start low on the ladder and have to demonstrate he can handle a late-inning role. Rauch and Ramirez will be the primary righty-throwing set-up men.

JB (New York)

Give us something to be optimistic about this year

Adam Rubin

  (3:02 PM)

No lines at Shake Shack. ... I kid. It will be fun to see if Lucas Duda can validate the second half of last year. And if you keep an eye on the minors, just how well Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Jeurys Familia progress.

JB (New York)

Will Johan be ready for opening day?

Adam Rubin

  (3:02 PM)

They've scripted it out for him to be ready. He'll pitch the March 5 Grapefruit League opener, then the April 5 season opener if everything goes according to plan.

Harry (Babylon, NY)

Is the financial situation so bleak that it doesn't make sense to sign Oswalt on a 1 year contract with the intention to flip him come July?

Adam Rubin

  (3:02 PM)

Would be a nice strategy. But it's not happening.

Andres M (Venezuela)

Any chance former rule V pick Elvis Ramires makes the team?

Adam Rubin

  (3:03 PM)

He's not in camp. He was a Rule 5 selection in the first place because he was not on the Mets' 40-man roster.

james (pearl river)

with all the prospects the mets are hoping turn out. if Den Dekker can hit with some consistency i think he can grab a spot in the OF in a few years

Adam Rubin

  (3:03 PM)

Certainly possible.

Rich (Long Island)

How long do you think it will take for the Mets to be in serious contention for a wildcard spot.. 2013? 2014? 2015?

Adam Rubin

  (3:04 PM)

2014, once Wheeler and Harvey are established -- assuming that works out -- and once Santana's contract clears and they can spend a little more freely.

Bill (midtown office)

Is it fair to say Peterson has been vindicated in his assessment of Kazmir's injury potential?

Adam Rubin

  (3:05 PM)

Kazmir made a couple of All-Star teams before his arm trouble. I'd take that few years of dramatic success over what Victor Zambrano gave the Mets. ... The problem wasn't even so much trading Kazmir by the way. It was that impulsive move with the Devil Rays, when other teams didn't even know Kazmir could be had. If they shopped more, they would have gotten a much better yield.

Steve (Syracuse )

I know it's early but is it realistic to expect Johan to be able to work 90-92 again even if he makes it through spring training healthy? From what I understand he was more around 87-88 in his last couple rehab starts. I'm concerned the change up can't be a real weapon without the mph separation from his fastball.

Adam Rubin

  (3:06 PM)

Too soon to know. As you stated, he touched 90 last summer in the rehab starts, but was 86-88 mph in the latter couple game-type situations. And now he's going to need to pitch every fifth to sixth day. Dan Warthen expects it to be erratic.

Ira (Long Island)

Hi Adam. If Tejada is having problems with his Visa, what exactly does TC and the Met organization want him to do about it? I don't get the disappointment that everyone so feels.

Adam Rubin

  (3:06 PM)

It wasn't so much a problem with the visa, as much as not picking up the visa.

Matt (nyc)

Plan in going down to psl on march 1-6, Any tips?

Adam Rubin

  (3:07 PM)

Team works out in the mornings on the back field around 10 a.m. Game times usually 1 p.m. Thursday nights SNY tapes at Duffy's, I believe, so you might be able to catch some players there too.

Phil (LIU Brooklyn)

If Rottino proves he can be an average MLB backstop in camp, shouldn't he get the over Nickeas because of his bat? how much does Rottino offer offensively?

Adam Rubin

  (3:08 PM)

My sense is that Vinny Rottino would need to make it as a third catcher, and that he'd have to almost count as one of the backup position players. That would probably require either Justin Turner or Scott Hairston being hurt, since they're the righty-hitting corner guys. And since Hairston is the primary backup center fielder, I'm not sure a Hairston injury could get Rottino on. It might have to be someone else who can play center field.

Reggie (Dix hills)

Adam, are the fences being moved in this yr at Citi Field, or just being lowered? i have heard both

Adam Rubin

  (3:10 PM)

You heard correctly. The 16-foot wall in left is now eight feet. But it's moving in too. And right-center is moving in. And the Mo'z Zone nook in right field is gone. Here's a precise look at the changes: http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/36278/changes-coming-to-citi-field

Adam Rubin

  (3:10 PM)

Anyway, I need to run. More articles to write. Thanks for sticking with me through the brief early interruption.