Good morning gang. Welcome to the fantasy football chat. It's too bad there's nothing going on in the NFL. No big stories or trades to report... oh, there's this one thing with a guy named Favre. Maybe we can talk a little about that? Who's up first?
We start 2 QBs, 3 RBs, and 3 WRs. PPR league. Would you take Brady with the 6th pick?
I've written an article in the Draft Kit saying I'd take Brady at No. 6 in a Standard League. With a 2 QB set-up it is even more important to grab that first QB early. No doubt of Brady at 6.
What does the favre deal to for Thomas Jones and the jets WR? Would this move jones up ahead of guys like turner, edge, ronnie brown?
Certainly for the Jet's WR corps of Cotchery and Coles, you have to give them a boost with Favre coming in. They're not going to throw any less with Brett under center! Jones was already an intriguing RB2 option, and I think his value definitely increases with Favre in place. Teams will play the pass more, even if its in the of making more picks, which is giving TJ more room to operate. Maybe not ahead of Brown, but definitely the other two.
Can Farve run block? I'd say the additional of Faneca has more of an impact on T Jones' value
That's why Jones was already rising. Favre adds that gunslinger element that was not there before. Chad's arm-strength didn't exactly stretch the field.
So now that the trade has gone trough with the jets can the bears now go after brett? I realize there is a draft pick clause with the vikings but do you think brett is sdone moving yet? THis will obviously effect fantasy a ton.
While there's no plot twist that I'd be totally surprised at any more in this ridiculous saga, I think Brett is a Jet for 2008.
Can the Jets now turn around and trade Farvre to the Vikings?
Can they? Yes, although there was a clause in the trade that requires the Jets to lose several #1 picks if they do so. They're not going to do that.
Is Ronnie Brown worth keeping in a keeper league if I have Ryan Grant already?
If you start 2 RB, then you probably need 4 or 5 to get through the season in one piece. Brown's recovery from injury may deflate his value, but I'd consider keeping him, on the assumption most team will keep 2 RB, and he's a better #20 overall back than most.
How does the Favre trade effect the Fantasy potential of Coles? Does he leap frog players like Driver and Ward as a solid WR3?
It definitely rises, though I like Cotchery better than Coles. We'll have to see which one of the two becomes Brett's fave during pre-season to know for sure. But I think Coles (or whichever Jet WR is #2) does leapfrog Driver. I'd still prefer Ward though.
Where should Darren McFadden go in RB heavy leagues?
McFadden probably falls in the last third of RB starters, making him at best a late 3rd/early 4th Round pick.
Do you know that the only off-season in the past four years Favre worked out intensively was before the 2007 season? Think of his '05 and '06 years. He obivously didnt work out this off season. Im not touching him with a ten foot pole. Give me Matt Schaub (this year) over Favre.
I don't disagree with Schaub's upside. Favre is not a #1 QB in a 10-team league, especially if you deduct points for INTs. He's learning a new system, new terminology and may struggle to develop chemistry with his WR early on. But I'd take him if I were Team 11 or 12 in a 12-team league.
How do you think this move will affect Farves play this year? Beter or worse than last years performance?
I think the Jets receivers can post numbers comparable to Jennings/Driver of last season. The weapons are there. Keller at TE also now becomes a decent option late. I think the Jets are still going to run more than GB did, so the final totals may not be as high as last season, but neither is he going to bottom out.
AJ, I have the option of keeping LT and losing a first round pick or keeping Ryan Grant and losing a 10th round pick. Am I crazy for considering keeping Grant and having all of my early picks?
The question comes to what you expect other people to be doing. By that I mean, if all the other owners are likely to keep players that cost them their No. 1, then you have a great chance at keeping Grant and still being able to re-select LT. Conversely though, if you keep LT and all others do as well (keep their No. 1) then you might still get Grant. I think when all is said and done, I'd rather have LT.
Is everyone going to forget about me?
Eli, you did good in the playoffs, but the Giants are, were and ever will be run -run - desperation pass - punt. You don't have the fantasy value, even if you have a Super Bowl ring.
I have the #1 pick in the first year of a 20 team keeper league. Since it is a keeper league, is LT #1 or is Purple Jesus? Also, are ya'll going to update the rankings anytime soon? It seems that with the Favre situation and some random injuries, things might have changed a bit since last month. Thanks.
Keeper league from hereon out, gotta go with Adrian. As for rankings updates, I am sure there will be several more revisions over the next few weeks, especially now that the Pre-Season is actually underway.
Where do you think Favre will go in the draft? Who is the better QB to draft first, Jason Campbell, Aaron Rodgers, or Eli Manning
In NYC leagues, he goes two rounds too early. I wouldn't take him before Round 7. I think Campbell and Eli are close, with Eli getting the slight nod. Rodgers has to prove it to me.
What kind of strategy should I take when drafting in a 16 team league?
You have to go with 2 RB and QB with your first three picks. There's 32 teams and with 16 teams, that's not a lot of room to wait. More than 1 WR gets stats for a team each week, not so much for RB and QB.
Alright, so we have covered RB's and WR's. How about the Jets TE's Baker, Franks, and Keller? Are they now fantasy relevant? No one really picks any of these three up so they are usually free agent fodder. Are they anywhere close to fantasy relevant with Favre at the helm?
I've already said, but it bears repeating that Keller now becomes a viable fantasy option. If Donald Lee was fantasy relevant with Favre, so too is the rookie Jet.
How does now having Aaron Rogers at QB effect Ryan Grant? Is he a top 5 RB? Top 10?
Rodgers' development will determine the value. Early on, teams are bound to key on the run and ask Rodgers to beat them. If he doesn't there's no reason to change that gameplan. If he does, then the Packers will likely give Aaron more to do, so again, Grant may not get the huge numbers. I see him as a possible Top 10, but more likely to be just outside, looking in.
Should i pick steven Jackson or Joseph Addai for my 4th pick in the draft if westbrook and a.p are taken
Those are clearly the next two choices at RB. I like Jackson a bit better, if only because he's more likely to find the end zone.
How much effort should I put into a kicker? Who are the top 5?
Step 1 - Put names of kickers in hat. Step 2 - Wait until your last pick. Step 3 - Pull name from hat. Step 4 - Read name, make pick.
What kind of numbers can Olsen of the Bears put up this year? Does he take the next step to stardom?
I think Olsen has two big issues... 1) Des Clark, who steals half the targets, and 2) the Bears are flipping a coin to decide who their QB is. Seriously. I don't put much faith in his getting serious numbers.
AJ please help. Better PPR RB- Gore or Lynch? How about for a keeper league- what totals do you expect.
With Mike Martz in SF, I think you gotta go Gore. He could easily get about 30-40 more receptions than Lynch.
Just how early do i take a defense? I really like Minn D to put up points and I think defenses often get overlooked as point makers. Your opinion?
Another issue I dealt with in an article in the Draft Kit... Defenses should also, in general, be taken no earlier than Round 9 or 10, and that's only if you have a strong feeling about the top 1 or 2. With any pick there is risk, but you're gambling too early on an 11-man unit, which is a lot more unreliable, year in, year out, than trying to predict the stats of a single player.
How early should Payton, or Randy Moss be taken?
Assuming a standard league, Moss might be my pick late in the first round, as long as I grabbed a solid RB with the other pick. He won't be there come the next time through. Peyton is a second round pick, but I'd personally rather get my RB situation in order before taking a QB. It's not like a dropoff to Romo or Brees is that bad... if I drop from say, taking Gore to taking LenDale... there's an issue.
I can keep either Big Ben or Mcnabb. Which one do you think will have the better year?
I like Big Ben more. McNabb will likely have the best single game for you, but will follow that up with a 10-30, 120 yard disaster. Ben will be steadier., week in, week out.
Defenses can be taken as early as round 6.. it depends on your SCORING SYSTEM.
Obviously, which is why I can only speak to a generally standard scoring system. If you're going to play in a league where you get 1000 points for a kick reutrn TD, I'll tell you to draft Devin Hester in the first round. I can't speak to everyone's rules at once.
How far does Marshalls suspension drop him in fantasy drafts?
Well let's assume he was Top 15 WR before the suspension, take away around 1/4 of the season (assuming time needed to regain rhythm) and you certainly have to drop him to at least 30th WR.
If your team last year was so bad that your keeper options were Rudi Johnson or Julius Jones, who would you go with? Knowing you'll be getting a decent RB with your first pick in this years draft. Thanks.
I would keep Julius, though I agree that's pretty slim pickings. I expect Kenny Watson to get some PT.
One thing I haven't seen covered is the Round 2 pick after taking Brady at 6. In a 12 team league who are you looking at there? The 2nd tier of RB's are gone, while the 1st tier of WR's is still in tact...do you take an elite WR and patch together your RB's or take an inferior RB?
I think you either take one of the top-5 WR and decide to tank RB entirely, or you go RB the next two rounds. If you go the first route, I'd actually consider taking a second QB in Round 3 so that I could trade him later on to fix my RB woes.
Where do you take Rivers?? His knee will be a concern for everyone, but I really feel like THIS is his big breakout season.
If you feel that way, then you'll still be able to grab him late, because not many will agree. I wouldn't want Rivers as my No. 1. But that's where it pays to know the minds of the other owners in your draft. you can wait longer on players if you know you're the only one high on them.
So basically taking Brady at 6 kills your team, unless you make a trade? How far does Roy Williams fall with out martz?
It doesn't kill your team... it's just putting all your eggs in one basket. Likely what happens next is the next eight picks include six RBs minimum, meaning you're getting at best the #12 RB. I say you take that back. But if you decide to go WR there, then yes, I think you're going to need to work to succeed. Not impossible, and actually, a worthwhile test of your owner abilities to take on.
Williams is still top-25, but definitely towards the tail end of that group.
There seems to be more value at WR then RB this year. If you can't get a top 8 RB, is it best to load up on WR then scrap together with the likes of Matt Forte and LenDale White?
I think, in general, there's always more WR available. Teams play 3-6 a game, all of whom can get you points. Usually we're looking at 1 QB and 1 primary RB - two tops. There's just not as much to go around. I'd rather get a whole bunch of forgotten WRs to cobble together my roster than to do the same with scraps at RB.
Who will be better in fantasy this year Jason Witten or Antonio Gates
Witten. Not entirely sure Gates will be 100% and there's the huge difference between the guys throwing them the ball.
Are RB's over-ranked? Seems like every year a lot of new one's come out of nowhere and a ton get injured. They are like the starting pitchers of football.
Again, it's all about the PT pie. Even if every team had a true 50-50 platoon in place, we're talking 64 RBs who would touch the ball each week, as opposed to close to 150 WR. That's why you have to take RB and QB before WR.
Thanks, gang. That's all the time I have. We'll have another chat this afternoon at 3pm. I appreciate all the questions. We'll see you the next time on Villa Allegre.