Good afternoon! Let's talk some football.
Let's just get this out of the way now: Favre Favre Favre Favre Favre Favre Favre Favre Favre Favre Favre Favre Favre Favre Favre Favre Favre Favre
Or, maybe it would be more accurate to say let's talk some Favre?
Based on your LT article and book, are the Bills ahead of the curve in not giving into Jason Peters' contract demand?
Blindsided shows the LT is only worth big dollars if it tops an already really good line off. Buffalo may not quite be there on that front, so holding Peters dollars back probably makes sense.
Lito Shepard is annoyed because the owner (Jeff Laurie) mentioned Lito?s poor YPA in an otherwise good report on Shepard. But he thinks the whole stat is bunk, as do most Eagles fans. Please explain why Lito really was bad last year and why the numbers rarely lie. And Part two, if a personnel man comments on YPA no one cares, do you think it was proper for the owner to comment? Thanks for making the work day better!
Lito was bad because his 8.1 YPA (yards per attempt for those uninitiated) ranked tied for 62nd among cornerbacks. He tied with Samari Rolle and Shawntae Spencer, both of whom aren't exactly in good positions to command top dollar. 8.1 is not a good YPA (5-6 is really good) and it is the best Lito's put up in his career.
The obvious question of the day....how does Favre improve Cotchery and Coles?
Vertically. Favre was best in the league in YPA on vertical passes (11+ yards or more downfield). Oddly enough, Favre will also improve the Jets with his bad decision rating. He was at 2.7% last season, which equates to about 1 in every 37 passes thrown into coverage. Pennington was at 3.7%, which is about one in every 27 passes tossed into coverage.
Let's assume Big Al has 5 years left before he takes the long dirt nap. Wouldn't he have a better chance of seeing his beloved Raiders win a Superbowl if he leaves Kiffen alone and actually lets him coach without having to watch his back?
I cover this very topic in Scientific Football 2008 (which, by the way, will be available for electronic download this evening). The nutshell is that Kiffin is a scheme coach (wants to win with playcalling - think Mike Martz) and Al is a personnel guy (wants to win with players) (both terms stem from an essay in Blindsided). Scheme guys want to control everything and Al isn't built that way so even if Kiffin is a genius, I don't think this partnership works out long term.
Part two: Do you think it's proper for the owner to comment on Lito's YPA?
Why not? He owns the team and obviously has done some reading up on the subject. Lito asking him to put out big dollars and I for one like it when owners do personal research into the matter. I'll take that over the absentee owner any day of the week.
Crazy question: Can the NYJ trade Favre to a 3rd party/team who can then trade him to Minnesota? I really want to see Favre vs. GB on Monday night
Great question. I haven't heard anything that says there is a non-trade clause in the Jets contract but I imagine there probably is.
So then I would be wise to keep Cotchery on my Fantasy League team then?
Absolutely. By the way, Cotchery's metrics have been just as good as Coles' for the last two years, so there's another reason to keep him.
Will you clarify "electronic download". Are those who purchased the paper version able to download the file or is it a separate cost.
Paper version purchasers through the site will have electronic access later tonight. It will be a PDF that will be sent to them.
KC, can't the personal guys and the scheme guys co-exist and produce a better team?
It's hard to explain in this format (it is about a 3,000-4,000 word essay in Blindsided) but the short answer is not really. Personnel guys build teams one way and scheme teams another.
KC, a fantasy question. I select 2nd overall in a 10-man standard league and will take AP (or LT if #1 goofs). What are your thoughts on grabbing one of the stud QBs and a stud WR in 2nd and 3rd? i feel like there are a bunch of RBs in the same category for rounds 4/5...thoughts?
I hate to give the standard answer but at #2 I'd still take a running back. Once you get past AP and Westbrook, it starts to drop off there pretty quick. You can still get an elite WR/QB later but you can't get an elite RB.
I also agree with The Owner .I think Lito's just a bit sore because the true hurt and kinda undermines his position. To be paid like a great corner, instead of a good one. Thanks for the facts, straight facts.
Or he should at least prove he is capable of being the ballhawk he was a couple of years ago. Philly is willing to put up with a higher YPA if the CB gets some picks but when the picks stop coming, the YPA becomes an issue.
im confused...i am taking an RB at #2. i was talking the 2nd and 3rd rounds. I dont see too many elite RBs outside of the top 10....
Sorry, my mistake there. I like that approach because you can stock up on as many elite players as possible. You won't get a 2nd elite RB and I would think elite WRs and QBs would outweigh 2nd tier RBs, especially if you have a plan for some high risk/high upside style RBs.
KC, you've mentioned that Cotchery/Coles improve with Favre. How does that impact Thomas Jones? the guy still broke 1000yds last year and now has Faneca and a legit pass threat.
And a QB who will want to throw the ball 500 times. Jones will get better opportunities (i.e. more goal line chances with a better QB) but he'll likely get fewer chances with the ball due to Favre wanting to pitch it every chance he gets.
For Luis, Can you give the infomation to him. If jets trade favre to Minn Jets will owe Packers 3 first round picks for next three years.
I'm not sure of the validity of this but assuming Michael is correct, that's a definite hard pill to swallow.
KC, Why does Miami want Pennington???
In a good year, Pennington's metrics beat everything Miami's had out of that position of late. That's what they must be looking at, that and that Pennington could be had for next to nothing (relatively speaking).
Please let Joe from york that there is always an availability in our league for his type of drafting! Teams that dont draft a 2nd RB till the 4th round better get lucky.
J, I'd agree with you for many leagues but if Joe's league is a PPR league, going elite WR/QB may be a very viable option over a decent #2 RB.
For Michael: hence, my asking if the Jets trade him to someone else, who then trade him to Minn. I'm aware of the 3 1st rounder stipulation
Not sure how the league would take that but I imagine the Packers would want the 3 pick punishment enforced in any event. I believe Goddell would see it that way as well.
KC, don't you think Chad Pennington would be a good fit for the Kansas City Chiefs? 1.They need a QB 2.He knows Herman Edwards.
If I were Pennington, I'd fear that O line. I believe KC allowed the most sacks in the NFL last year (or were tied for the most). That's a rough situation to go to.
Two words for you KC: Madden Curse...the people at EA Sports tried to beat the system and throw a retired guy on the cover and look what happened...
Will it count as a Madden curse if the guy plays in a different uniform than what's on the cover? And doesn't that say something for the people at EA to put Favre on the cover the year he helps pull the biggest trade in the NFL since maybe the Herschel trade? Maybe they had some inside skinny?
I haven't read your book yet but I understand that you talk about Ray Guy and his chances of getting into the HOF. How do you envision his chance changing once he is eligible as a senior selection? Do you personally feel he belongs in the HOF?
There is a chapter in Blindsided that covers the best Hall of Famers. The methodology used was All Pro picks, with a high premium going to consensus All Pro picks (which is the most difficult single season honor to get). Guy had six consensus seasons, which is more than any eligible player around except Bruce Smith and Rod Woodson, both of whom will get into Canton in their first ballot. There are more reasons than that as to why Guy should go but the gist is he absolutely belongs.
KC - can you rank these corners best to worst...Asante Samuel, Nate Clements, DeAngelo Hall, and Quentin Jammer....to me these guys are good players, but not studs.
I'd put Samuel first because of he has the best combination of YPA and ballhawking skills. Jammer goes second because he has been one of the best shutdown CBs the past two years (under 6 YPA both times). Clements goes next then Hall.
Remeber before free agency when you told me the Vikings wouldn't spend a lot of money. What do you have to say for yourself now?
That I'm glad I was wrong. I love it when a team goes all out to improve their team, especially when they are in a situation where they are not very far away from being a Super Bowl contender. I'll take being wrong on that front every day of the week.
Yet another chat with no mention of the champion Giants. The NFL will pay for this lack of respect and we Big Blue fans will enjoy another parade down the canyon of heroes. And Favre can bring his 8-8 Jets as spectators!
I still don't understand why Giants fans aren't Jets fans and vice-versa. It's not like the old baseball days where the intra-city rival was the competition for a title. These guys are in different conferences for crying out loud!
Good or bad PR for madden: Putting Farve on the '09 cover vs. a player that hasn't tested the patience of fans?
I'm sure EA looks at it as the only bad PR is no PR. People are talking about their game and that's a big plus.
Who is the starting TE for the Jets this season? Dustin Keller, Bubba Franks, or Chris Baker?
I'd give dollars to donuts it won't be Baker. He's a very good receiving threat at TE (the metrics say he is as good as Shockey) but his blocking leaves something to be desired and he makes mistakes in the passing game at times as well. Mangini won't take him out of the doghouse so I'd put my chips on Keller.
Its been a while......Did you see the Rivers interview from NFL Live? Do you see this as the year V Jackson finally takes a huge step forward? It's been a while since the Chargers had a really good WR and I think Gates missing time (if he does, which I hope he doesn't) will help Philip out in the long run because it will force him to trust his WR more.
Dee, I'm glad you posted because I wanted to let you know I dedicated the Rivers comment in Scientific Football 2008 to you. His review wasn't all positive, mind you, but I figured that was appropriate since those are the times you chime in! Regarding Jackson, he did get a lot better but the game by game metrics I ran on him for SF 2008 say he still needs to get more consistent.
Which CB rates better: Charles Woodson or Al Harris?
Woodson by a mile last year and by a few steps the year before. Why Harris gets the Pro Bowl play and not Woodson, I have no idea.
Would you like the Yankees if you were a Mets fan? And vice-versa? Same goes for the Cubs and White Sox. I don't understand why in baseball fans are supposed to hate the other city team but in football we should root for the both teams? What happens if one day there is an all-Meadowlands Super Bowl? Your team is your team KC! Root for no others.
I'm a Michigan guy but I'll pull for MSU in every game except when they are playing the Maize and Blue. I guess that might be easier because UM fans have OSU to aim their antipathy towards.
How many sacks can we expect between Taylor and Carter this year? Over or under 25?
I'd have to take the under there. I did sack type metrics for Scientific Football 2008 and found Taylor and Carter both put up more than their share of coverage/garbage type sacks. I don't say that to knock them but if last year is any indication, they'll need help to get sacks and 25 would mean they got a lot more help than I think Washington's D can give them.
KC, In our league we do 1pt for every 20yds(QB/RB/WR/TE), 6pts for TDs, -2INT/Fum loss. 1pt per REC. So my question to you is should i take Peyton Manning with the 6th or later pick? He does put up really good numbers every year!
Manning's value really depends on if Harrison is healthy. If he is, the Colts will have a dominant trio of WRs and Peyton is a 40 TD candidate. He'd be worth reaching for there but if Harrison is slowed by injury, Manning's a 30 TD candidate and probably not worth taking that high. I keep hearing Marvin's on the mend and will do fine but you'll have to decide if it's worth the risk.
I guess the mindset is different in the metro areas KC. Thanks for posting and answering my comments. P.S. I really have never seen such disrespect for a defending Super Bowl champ.
I'll give you the PS, Ryan. I mean, I've got Dallas as the NFC favorite but I've got the Giants giving them every bit of a run for their money. Spagnuolo might be the best defensive coordinator in the NFL (NY had the highest forced bad decision rate of any team) and Plaxico will be healthy this year.
KC why didn't the Ravens throw their hat into the Favre sweepstakes, was it likely a salary cap issuse?
I don't know if the cap was an issue. What I think would be the larger impediment is they aren't trying to set up for a one year Super Bowl run like they've been trying to do the past few years.
I know you speak glowingly of Roddy White, but on top of having a terrible QB situation, then entire offense has changed to a run based one. Won't that severly crimp his stats in 08?
Good question. Atlanta is still going to put up 400 passes this year and White will be the target on probably 120-150 of those. He's that much better than everyone else on their roster and he's a 9-10 YPA candidate.
KC, why on earth do leagues continually have drafts prior to the final pre-season games? Every year some major guy gets injured. When will they learn?
You know what's even crazier than that? Teams that have drafts before camps even open. I had one person a couple of years ago tell me he lost his key fantasy RB during the first week of training camp (can't remember exactly who the RB was). I'm into fantasy football and all but that's just a bit too much even for my tastes!
Since this whole fiasco started, I've heard a lot of grown men who sobbed after a man who throws a ball retired blasting Ted Thompson for drafting horribly. I think he's done a fine job. Any metrics to back this up?
I hesitate to give Thompson a ton of credit for his drafts because I don't know how much difference Favre made to that offense last year. I think he made some really average players look really good but this year's metrics will show if that was the case.
your analysis of skill position O players, the D secondary and LB corps your metrics are spot on. However you lack a basic understanding of the line of scrimmage..... you need to blow up your criteria for your metrics on the scrimmage and start anew using criteria gleamed from talking to hard nosed NFL types who know the lines.... basically you need to expand your education
Ben, you obviously never read Scientific Football 2006. The run blocking metrics in that book were the most in-depth of any publication ever printed. Please review my work before criticizing it.
The injuries suck, but there is a major advantage of early drafts...the fantasy publications aren't out yet. Those with football knowledge are able to get sleepers before the mags list them as sleepers.
You know, that is the first good reason I've heard for having really early drafts!
Aren't u a FORMER BASEBALL player?? Ranking football now?? lol Please give me a expert answer. i have a ppr league 12 teams. i have the 4th pick. Stevie Jack? or Addai? or Gore? please rank in oreder. and would getting Romo on the snake back pick be crazy??? ThankS KC!
That's Wally Joyner you are thinking of! I'd take Addai, Gore then Jackson. And skip Romo on the way back. He's darn good but only on QB in the NFL has a more brutal passing matchup schedule than does Romo.
Have to agree with Ben. Your calling Green Bay's line bad run blockers last week is ridiculous. Wells is a great run blocker. And nobody but you would take Cory Redding over Vince Wilfork. You must be seeing incorrectly.
Rob, I did call out the Packers O line in general but I do not believe I called out Wells. And Redding did have a very good season against the run. His pass rush was non-existent but his run stuff numbers were quite good.
Hey Mitten Boy (Michigan), what's the plan for our ESPN fantasy league, you, me and Mickey thus far?
Travis, you are one of about a dozen people who have emailed me about the league. I'll be responding to those in the next day or so, just been busy pounding out the last sections of SF 2008. We'll definitely do a league, in other words!
Is brees your #3 QB then with romo having a tougher schedule?
I would definitely take Brees over Romo due to the schedule.
KC, Love the chats! Who do you think is the best LT in the NFL? I say Walter Jones!
I know he's only been in the league for a year but give me Joe Thomas for #1 LT.
Mikey! Travis not Mickey!
A correction from chat regular Mikey!
I'm a Mets fan and hate the Yankees. islander fan and hate the rangers. But i'm also a Jets fan and root for the Giants. Until the Jets/Giants play against each other in a SB, I dont get the "rivalry"/hatred. Speaking of the Jets, what about the defense? Will Revis develop into a shutdown CB, and can Miller be above average in '08?
I do like Revis but he isn't the lockdown corner he's being made out to be. I think he'll get there but last year his season long and individual game metrics were only OK. I'm not sold on Miller but he might be the best alternate option they have. I will say the secondary will be tested a lot more because Favre will want to win with shootouts.
Joe Thomas over Walter Jones and Jason Peters?
Yes sir, and that isn't a pejorative to those other two. Thomas had dominant run and pass blocking metrics. He's as good an OL as I've seen in the five years I have been doing this. Only caveat is he is a one-year guy but I don't think he's the type to drop off.
Do I email you my email address or something for FF? KC u going down!
Yep, just drop me a line at email@example.com. Well, I've got to hit the road now. Just an FYI, Blindsided is now in bookstores across the country so check it out if you get a chance!