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May 14, 11:26 AM ET
Fantasy Baseball w/AJ Mass

AJ Mass
  (10:58 AM)

Good morning gang! We're here for an hour of fantasy baseball goodness. Watch out for spoilers! Fringe. Gamel. Celeb Apprentice. Reimold. Lost. Let the games begin.

Gamel (WI)

GAMEL gamel gamel gamel. Gamel Gamel? Gamel gamagamagama gamel!

AJ Mass
  (10:59 AM)

Gamel indeed. Expect him to get a few pinch-hit appearances before a start though. You'll need to grab him off waivers now, but don't start him yet.

Brad (Denver)

Hey AJ, Daily Notes ranks Ervin as the 5th best starter today. Seems a little high for his first start of the season.

AJ Mass
  (11:00 AM)

He wouldn't be allowed back if the team didn't think he was ready. I think he has a pitch count which might make a win less likely, but call me optimistic.

Dan (Detroit)

Nolan Reimold ... you buying?

AJ Mass
  (11:02 AM)

He's better than Montanez, and should get a few games in with DigDug, Pie and Scott hurting... so I'm buying the PT. That's half the battle. I think Gamel is better, but might not get as many ABs right away.

TJ (Mass)

Who would you rather have from here on out, Joe Mauer or Russell Martin?

AJ Mass
  (11:03 AM)

Mauer, without a doubt. He's a pure hitter who may well win the batting title again.

Out of the Box

Page not found?

AJ Mass
  (11:04 AM)

It's there... try again.

John Locke (Island)

Dead or Alive? Start WayRod @COL, King Felix @TEX, or neither?

AJ Mass
  (11:06 AM)

Leaning towards neither on Wandy and Felix if you're the type to play the matchup game. As for Locke, I think you got your answer last night fairly clearly.

Alex (Houston)

Got offered Damon and Hunter for Morneau? I have Fielder at first base sohuld I make the move?

AJ Mass
  (11:07 AM)

Yes, I'd pull the trigger with Prince in tow.

Steve (PHILLY)

Nolasco has been getting bombed....Drop him for Dallas Braden or ANdy Pettitte?

AJ Mass
  (11:08 AM)

I think we've reached the cut loose point for Ricky. I'd give Dallas a try.

Gary (Long Island)

Who was the other dude with Jacob on beach in beginning of episode? Is he in the guise of Locke? Thoughts on Nolasco?

AJ Mass
  (11:10 AM)

That's the big question to be answered next season, is it not? My guess is it has something to do with Smokey. As for Nolasco, read question above...

Roger (NM)

Magglio has been terrible. Should I drop him for Mark Teahen?

AJ Mass
  (11:11 AM)

Indeed, and the rumors of an outright waiver have been floating around. Insane! I don't think I'm cutting him just yet personally, and Teahen isn't a long term answer... but I'd certainyl shop him on spec that he ends up in a different uniform and gets his groove back some.

Shaun(NYC)

How can you say "we got a pretty clear answer last night"? Nothing is ever clear on that show.....and the great Jacob gets killed that easily? BTW, Out of the Box link is still not working.

AJ Mass
  (11:13 AM)

Fair point, but by "clear" - I mean as far as the writers can be trusted not to change the rules, we got our answer in the box, or rather out of the box... which is working on my computer... from the main fantasy page.

Jack Bauer

Am I in the wrong place?

AJ Mass
  (11:13 AM)

Indeed. See: Tristan's chat for all your Banty-quatro needs.

Mike (Minneapolis, MN)

I notice that Co Co Crisp hasn't made the top 100 hitter rankings, and yet guys like Michael Bourn are making it. What gives? I'm tempted to drop Magglio for Co Co, umpire's push or not, and don't want to go the Morgan/Bourn/Tavarez/Pierre route for SBs. Crazy?

AJ Mass
  (11:14 AM)

Not crazy. He was in the top-100 on my list.

Joe (NJ)

Do you think Wainwright or Oswalt will be better? I was thinking no worse then SP3 for each since I have Halladay and Bills.

AJ Mass
  (11:16 AM)

I like Wainwright better than Roy going forward. But with Doc and Chad, he's definitely no better than No. 3.

Tim (ABQ - NM)

BJ Upton 3-6 last night...last chance to pick him up cheap right?

AJ Mass
  (11:17 AM)

Well, if he goes 0-for his next 12, no. If Upton's owner hasn't made the move yet, it's not likely he'll be moved to do so AFTER a good game. I think the ship may have sailed if he has indeed righted his.

Observant

you like to say "indeed" a lot

AJ Mass
  (11:17 AM)

Indeed.

Brian (Charlotte, NC)

Pertaining to your comments on "gambler's fallacy", please post this comment to clarify to the readers your incorrect remarks. You commented specifically about Adam Jones, saying there is no reason to expect regression and noting gambler's fallacy. Over the next AB, sure, you can't make any predictions about whether he will make an out or get on base. Over a long stretch of time, you absolutely can make those predictions with high confidence. A career .250 hitter who is hitting at a .370 clip for example will simply not keep it up. That is not gambler's fallacy, that is a statistical fact called regression to the norm. We don't expect, for example, Ichiro to suddenly hit 46 homeruns this season. If he went on a hot streak and hit 10 HRs in 20 games, we still don't expect 46 HRs. The reason is regression quite obviously. Please don't comment on things if you don't know enough to answer the question. Thank you.

AJ Mass
  (11:20 AM)

Not to go nuts on this, but HRs and SBs are not the same as BA. Power is a measurable ability - some folks are stronger than others. Speed is too. Prince Fielder is never stealing 50. Batting average doesn't really have to do with either, and while a career .250 hitter may not "keep it up" if he's at .370, gambler's fallacy has no bearing on whether or not he does. If you want to talk about regression to a personal norm, that's a different topic, and has nothing to do with "GF" which is all about events with a FIXED probability, which BA is not.

AJ Mass
  (11:21 AM)

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/baseball/flb/outOfTheBox?page=ootb09514 For those of you having trouble with OOB... is this the link you're using?

Tony, (Evansville, IN)

Is Chris Young (OF) worth owning at all? Do you anticipate any kind of turn-around for him?

AJ Mass
  (11:22 AM)

No, I don't. And now that Parra is up, I'm not sure Young gets too much of a chance to turn it around.

Stephen (Dallas, TX)

Who ends up more valuable at season's end...Werth or Holliday?

AJ Mass
  (11:24 AM)

I think Werth does, though I'm not in the "No Coors, No Stats" camp with Matt - he'll improve once he gets around the league another time.

Matt (WI)

Who's got better stats come September: Russell Branyan or Mark Reynolds

AJ Mass
  (11:25 AM)

Reynolds by a nose.

Todd (Philly)

What do you say to the member(s) of your league that vetoes every trade - regardless of merit - any suggestion?

AJ Mass
  (11:25 AM)

Either A) We won't be asking you back next season. or B) We've changed the rules to eliminate owner vetoes.

Andrew (Baltimore)

To Brian in Charlotte: good job using a guy (Adam Jones) with barely a full season's worth of plate appearances as your example. Great, you know about regression. Now go learn about sample size.

AJ Mass
  (11:26 AM)

The math minor in me just giggled like a schoolgirl.

Ryan Zimmerman (DC)

Now that the streak has ended, what does my final line look like?

AJ Mass
  (11:28 AM)

In general I think hitting streaks are overrated. Not that they're not impressive when they get to 30+, but technically speaking, you could have a 30-game streak and still be hitting .260 or so. As for Zim, though, I think he's definitely top-5 for 3B the rest of the way.

Brian (Wantagh, NY)

Why do all of these anonymous posters in this chat think they have the authority of a Statistics Ph.D from MIT?

Shane (Boston)

Drop Abreu for Taveras in 10 team H2H?

AJ Mass
  (11:30 AM)

Nope. Abreu's not stealing 50, but I'm more confident in his BA the rest of the way than Willy.

Anthony (Raleigh)

Only have room to stash 2- Gamel, LaPorta or Weiters?

AJ Mass
  (11:31 AM)

I'd let LaPorta go, if only because the OF position is much easier to fill.

Douglas (Pittsburgh)

What's the signifigance of June 1st for calling up a player from the Minors?

AJ Mass
  (11:33 AM)

It's not really about a set date, Doug. It's about the timing of callups in relation to other callups which triggers the countdown towards free agency. That's why Wieters and Price are still down in the minors, though with Reimold and Gamel up, they're much closer to a callup than they were yesterday.

Eric (MA)

In your last OF spot would you start JUpton, Hawpe or Duncan? Or would you do the match-ups week-week?

AJ Mass
  (11:34 AM)

Although I'm high on Duncan, I'm even higher on Justin. He's my pick.

Mike (Nashville)

Rios...is it still "early" or are we looking at a regression?

AJ Mass
  (11:36 AM)

Rios is borderline Top-50 hitter right now even as poorly as his numbers look, so I think any "regression" has already taken place, and he's only got up to go. Now, have at it, Fermat and Friends.

Shairon Martis (DC)

Who am I and am I worth a pick-up?

AJ Mass
  (11:39 AM)

You're 5-0 and have almost half the Nationals' wins. The ERA isn't the greatest, but for whatever reason you're getting all the Wash run support. I can't count on the wins to keep coming in, and other than that, the value isn't really there - spot starter at best.

Paul (Boston)

AJ, how do you value hitters vs. pitchers? Would you sell high on Adam Jones to get Peavy, who may never regain top form this year?

AJ Mass
  (11:42 AM)

In general, hitters have more value to me, since they contribute in more categories and pitchers can't really control wins (just ask Dan Haren and Johan about that, just to name two). That's not to say the top pitchers aren't valuable, just that they don't match up to the top hitters in my book. And I don't think it's time to sell high on Jones just yet... even with his being banged up.

Jeff, Huntington WV

Who are your top 10 SP moving forward...It seems like SP has the most volatility and I would like your advice...I mean Verlander from a bum to possibly top 5?

AJ Mass
  (11:44 AM)

That's the other problem with SP values... one bad game can kill a pitcher's season-to-date numbers far more than a single 0-for-4 from a hitter can. As for my rankings - there's going to be a posting today of all the ESPN Experts lists...

Todd (Allentown)

Yet last week you said that a Rollins for Broxton trade is fair (with a reliever in control of even less stats)....explain?

AJ Mass
  (11:46 AM)

I disagree. A closer is almost exclusively used in situations where they will earn what amounts to 20+ percent of their value. A starter can throw 7 shutout innings and not earn a win. A closer, most of the time, can earn the save on his own without the need of run support. Plus I don't like Rollins...

Andrew (Milwaukee)

I'm in a keeper league where I just got offered LaPorta and Tommy Hanson for Brian Roberts. Is this a "take and run as fast as you can" deal or am I missing something?

AJ Mass
  (11:48 AM)

It's simply the lure of the unknown. If the prospects are all they're supposed to be, Roberts isn't enough. If they don't pan out, as many prospects don't, then it's highway robbery.

Scott (NJ)

Kendry Morales is really flying under the radar. Is he a better option that Reimold?

AJ Mass
  (11:50 AM)

I agree he's not being talked about - and isn't *sexy* - the upside with a guy like Reimold is far higher, but we're basing that on zero sample size. For this year, I'd go with Kendry, but in a keeper league, I'd rather buy the lottery ticket and take my chances with Nolan.

Jimmy Rollins (Philadelphia)

Oh, yeah? I like Brendan better than you!

AJ Mass
  (11:50 AM)

Well played, sir. Well played INDEED.

To Andrew in Milwaukee

Really? I would have laughed out loud at LaPorta and Hanson for Roberts. Roberts is a top 40 hitter and top 3-4 at 2B. I see no way that could possibly be construed as fair.

AJ Mass
  (11:51 AM)

It was a keeper league.... if Hanson and LaPorta both end up as advertised in 2010 and beyond, it's a joke the other way. For this season only, I'm totally with you.

Evan (Atlanta)

No comments on Rickie Weeks for the whole chat. Or Todd Helton. What do you think about them.

AJ Mass
  (11:53 AM)

Weeks pretty much at his optimal output. Helton coming on strong, but probably won't top Weeks for the season on his own without Weeks coming back to him.

Maggie (Long Beach)

Where do you stand on the issue of "protection" for a hitter? IE- Either stinks since Manny got suspended!

AJ Mass
  (11:54 AM)

I think you put it pretty well. Lineup position isn't what's important, it's who is before/after you that plays a huge part in things.

john(ma)

MParra worth a pickup?

AJ Mass
  (11:56 AM)

Not at this time.

Nick (Princeton, NJ)

SP advice please!!! Zimmermann, Duke, Jimenez or Wang (when off DL next week)?

AJ Mass
  (11:57 AM)

Put up your Dukes.

bucholz (AAA)

When am I coming up, AAA is for kids

AJ Mass
  (11:57 AM)

I hear you Clay, but so far, the word is you're staying put for now.

Landon (IN)

Do you think Ervin Santana will be a top 25 fantasy pitcher by the end of the season?

AJ Mass
  (11:59 AM)

I think he could be, but I'm not going so far as to predict it. I think he's definitely someone who should be on a roster in a 10-team mixed, so that makes him at worst Top 50...

Jesse (Boston)

The answer to "Who lies at the foot of the statue" is "He who will save us all". Fielder or BJ Upton, which side are you on?

AJ Mass
  (12:00 PM)

Prince.

Adam (Cincy)

Please rank for 2009 and 2010: Hughes, Buchholz or Masterson. Thanks!!

AJ Mass
  (12:01 PM)

Clay.

AJ Mass
  (12:01 PM)

Hughes 2 and Justin 3.

AJ Mass
  (12:02 PM)

That's all the time we have folks, unless Jack and Co's bomb worked, in which case, this chat hasn't started yet... Thanks for the Q's and we'll see you the next time on Villa Alegre!