Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
Hey KC,your chats help keep me sane at work. Anyways I'm concerned with Cromartie and the chargers. Do you see him returning to his form from 07, with the return of Merriman and a more experienced Cason?
Glad I can help with your sanity! Regarding Cromartie, I think he'll be better because later in the year he seemed to be finding that balance between going after passes and covering receivers. He did too much of the former early on and it cost him.
Sweet, it's Learn Something About the NFL Chat! Or LSANC for short. Is there really any credibility to 40 times with any position? It's not like every play in the NFL is a 40 yard dash. I would be more interested in how quick someone is. How fast do they change direction, and how many steps it takes them to get to full speed. Top Speed is highly over-rated. Sure there may be a Randy Moss once in a generation, but is it worth wasting pick after pick trying to find one?
I agree with you wholeheartedly but I can also understand why the 40 is used. I've done some college breakdowns over the past couple of years and every time I do one, I am always frustrated to some level by the amount of information I can't get. These great NFL prospects should physically dominate their collegiate competition and they do, but it doesn't say how well they will do against better competition.
Any time you come out and say you want ___ interceptions in a season, teams will bait you and take advantage of that. Chargers just need to shut up and play...
Another good point. They might as well send a telegram saying "we are going to bite on double move routes, so please use them against us."
KC, Packer fan here. I have seen a couple of columnist's say that Daryn Colledge had a good second half last year, I would like to know what his metrics were because he did not seem that special to me. P.S. How do think Raji and Mathews translate into the new 3-4?
I've only got about four Packers games in so far, so my take on Colledge is mixed and a bit incomplete at the moment. I can tell you that I broke tape down on Raji and found that he was dominant in both a 0/1 technique (i.e. over the center) or a 2/3 technique (i.e. over the guard), so he should be able to contribute no matter how GB uses him.
K!C! FOOTBALL SCIENTOLIGIST! No question. Just wanted to point out something that has been bugging me lately. Every year at draft time, the 'experts' point out that DL and WR's usually take 2-3 years to bloom, and every year the 'experts' rip on DL and WR's who didn't perform in their rookie seasons, like the Redskins guys. Do any of the 'experts' read themselves? Can any of these 2nd year guys be failing already at those positions? (I guess I did have a question...)
Jake, I can always count on you for a good question! I do agree with the "do these guys listen to themselves" comment. Don't knock the picks if you didn't think they were going to work in year one in the first place! And, no, it is way to early to say that any of those 2nd year guys are failures.
What's next in the Brett Favre saga? Will the Vikings ask him to go for EKGs, CAT scans, and a full body of other tests or is this thing dead?
J.B., can you think of a situation where Favre could get some media coverage and would pass it up? He'll keep this thing going as long as he can, even if deep in his mind he thinks he's not coming back. He's a glory hound big time.
Hey KC, what's cookin'? Your colleague Matt Moseley seems to think that the Eagles would trade Sheldon Brown if someone offered a 3rd round pick. He's crazy, right? Isn't Brown one of the better corners in the league right now?
I know Matt well enough to know that if he says something like that, he's got good reason to (i.e. someone in the league probably told him that). In Brown's case, a deal like that would be a no-brainer for the other side. He was in the top five in YPA last year and even if the team change dropped that a bit, it would be more than worth the price.
Cromartie did have an injured hip last year for a majority of the season. So his quickness and change of direction were hampered for sure
I'd also be willing to give him a sophomore season mulligan. He's a better player than he showed last year, but add the injury to his mentality of trying to match the previous year (which none of the great ballhawks of the past were ever able to do) and it equaled a bad combination.
Good point on Favre. I guess at worst he could always sell autographed copies of the EKGs and CAT scans on EBay.
Very funny, yet somehow not entirely out of the realm of possibility!
How many good years do you think Charles Woodson has left in him? Do you see him continue to be a top-notch CB in the league as his career winds down?
Woodson was in the top 20 in YPA last year, so I wouldn't be thinking of his career as winding down just yet.
You ready to watch me stand on my head tonight?
I'm ready to watch you have another game four-like performance. You aren't a road goalie!
hey dr.joyner. big ben is a top 5 qb! sometimes i wonder if the media, analyst, and fans are watching the same game. eli and rivers better?whatever
It's funny, the more tape I watch of Ben, the more I realize just how much he was doing on his own. That O line is not that good. By the end of his tape review, I might have to change my tune and put him back into KC's White Hot Top Five (to borrow a schtick from Current TV's Infomania - the funniest show on TV).
Any metrics on Ronie Brown? Some fans seem to think he never hits the right holes, and some think he is All-Pro.
I have yet to run Brown's totals in the same manner I ran the Bills RBs for the Times blog a few days back. In that analysis, I found that Buffalo's RBs did terrible when the Bills O line lost at least one POA block and did great when the line lost zero blocks. I'll be looking at that for every RB in Scientific Football 2009, so I'll get back with you on this one!
Hey KC, just want you to know (as odd as this sounds) someone is going around saying they are Xander from Philly and asking questions in chats. You dont have to post this, but do me a favor if you can...if anything else is posted by my name, its not me, so call him out on it. If you dont want to, no biggie. Thanks!
Xander, we'll have to set up some kind of code in advance. You know, email me with a "I'll use this word if it is me" and then I'll be able to distinguish the real Xander from the fake!
How are you going to measure how well I do when we have a front seven that can be blocked for forever?
One way I do this is by measuring the number of times a CB is beaten when there is a scramble on the play. That shows how the CB does when he has to cover longer than usual.
Would it be possible at all for someone like me to get my hands on coaches tape from the NFL? I would love to watch that. NFL network should show games that way. I'd re-watch every game.
Good luck getting coaches tape. I'd love to see everyone have access to those tapes, but if a guy like Dr. Z cannot open that door for the public (and he is only, as Peter King said, the best football writer of our time), than I don't think that door can be opened.
Obviously Ben has the rings but I will state my case for Rivers. His 4000 yards and 32/13 td to int season was the best in the league with no superstar wr. The Chargers were hampered by poor defense and if he had played with a Steeler defense or even a healthy team he would be playing for a title I believe.
I'll give you a lot on Rivers but the no-star WR bit may not be applicable anymore. Vincent Jackson had terrific metrics and even in an off year, Antonio Gates was one of the best TEs in the league. The poor defense also means a lot more passing, so I don't quite buy that as a negative for his stats. All in all, however, Rivers did great and finally convinced me he is in that elite QB class.
Everyone has been pretty hard on Pittsburgh's o-line. They seemed to improve in the playoffs last year. How do you think they will hold up this year?
I'm only a few games into Pittsburgh at the moment (I'm going division by division in tape breakdowns and the AFC North hasn't hit the radar yet), but from the games I've broken down, they aren't that good. I also have a bad feeling Pittsburgh is keeping them together just to show everyone they can win with the group that won the Super Bowl. A nice idea but I'd still like to see more talent up there rather than try to prove a point.
What do the metrics say about the Dolphins signing of Jason Taylor? How about your plain old scouts eye?
The issue for Taylor last year is that Washington mis-used him. They already had Andre Carter in what would be Taylor's natural position and so they had to use him in ways he wasn't as good at. I'm betting we see a return that is closer to the 2006 Taylor than the 2007 because Miami will use him in the right way.
So, what do you use when you breakdown all of these players?
TV footage. I've devised a system over the years that takes advantage of what the TV broadcasts do well while minimizing what the TV broadcasts don't do well.
Counter point: Rivers only attempted 9 more passes than Ben last season.
Is "Draft Guru" the easiest job in the world? I mean, if a guru screws up on a prediction most people aren't going to know about it (does anyone reread old analyses?) and if you do get called on it, just say something about level of competition or delayed maturation and you're off the hook. I think I could be a guru for the NFL, NBA or MLB.
Josh, that job may be getting a bit harder because there are people who are now tracking how good of a job the draft gurus do. There is more accountability in their future, in other words.
Hey KC, does Fred Jackson have decent metrics for what he does in Buffalo? I'm so glad they extended him.
Jackson did better on a number of run types than did Marshawn Lynch. He was also better at gaining yards when given good blocking. I agree the Bills made a great move in extending him.
So you are saying you watch the TV tape on mute??? Zing!
Actually, I alternate between mute and audio. The announcers usually have good information to pass along early in a contest but in the later stages of the game they are only commenting on what happens in the game. So I listen to maybe the first half and then go with some other form of audio.
KC, what has been the single most surprising thing you have noticed during your review of film for this past year?
At this point it would have to be just how good the Patriots O line was. Their overall run blocking metrics were better than the highly touted Jets O line. By the way, you can check these metrics out both by looking at Tim Graham's review of them from last week or by getting the Lab Notes that are available when pre-ordering Scientific Football 2009.
what metric best translates from the college game to the pro game? in basketball the old adage is if you can rebound in college you can in the pros. anything like that for football?
It would be different things for different positions. For QBs, I'm looking for vertical pass ability to go along with solid bad decision totals. For WRs, I'm partial to those who can run the tree. Those are but two and there are those who think other metrics are better indicators, but that's the beauty of this industry.
Whoever had 33 minutes into the chat before the first plug for Scientific Football 2009 please report to my office to pick up your winnings.
Hey man, I try to keep the plugs to a bare minimum!
KC, if the Bills pick up Tinoisamoa, where does that put their defense in the AFC? Could they have a top 10 D? Who would be a better FA pickup for them, Levi Jones or Tinoisamoa?
I just completed the Rams tape breakdowns last night. I've yet to do their defensive metric analysis but I can say that Tinoisamoa won his share of POA blocks and was rangy enough to get to a ton of tackles. Buffalo has rangy tackling machines already, so I'm not certain that he will fill in a need for them. He'd be a good depth pickup, give them another position where they can go 4-5 deep.
that's a 15 yard penalty on Xander from Philly for whining about people submitting questions as a fake Xander. It remains 3rd down!
Xander, I've got to say you are taking a lot of grief from the posters for that comment!
I was curious if you thought there was any hope for the Bears pass rush? The front four struggles last year led to the Bears blitzing more than any other team in the league and exposing a banged up secondary... we've got to avoid that this year
From what I've seen of Chicago's D, I would be worried about more than just the front four. That entire unit seemed to play below its talent level not only last season, but the season before that as well. I'm beginning to wonder if Lovie Smith isn't the defensive genius he is touted as being.
KC - what do you see happening offensively in Atlanta this year?
In most cases I'd predict a sophomore slump but there are multiple reasons to think this team will be even better offensively. They had a young O line to go along with that young QB and if the O line gels into an even better unit, they could pound the ball at will and give Ryan four seconds on every pass. I'm buying a better year for Atlanta in 2009.
Are you dissapointed in Peyton Manning, by not backing Marvin Harrison?
Not so much in that Harrison isn't a good fit for Indy anymore. He'd be a good fit for some team if they want a short route runner who can read defenses with the best of them, but he's not anywhere near the elite WR he used to be.
if trent edwards progresses as a qb do you think bills can possibly get into the playoffs?
That is a big if. Edwards looked great early on but after he took that hit from Adrian Wilson, he was never the same. I don't doubt the man's toughness, as he fought through many hits last year, but he did seem to have some of what Phil Simms called "pocket cabin fever" and if he doesn't find a way to solve that problem, Buffalo will again have issues at QB.
What kind of metrics did Greer have last year? Is he an upgrade for the Saints secondary or will it be another jason davidesque acquisition? ie, hole in zone
He is far from Jason David. Greer's metrics last year were in the upper half of the league and his historical metrics were even better. David at one point was the worst CB in the league metric-wise even when he played in a cover-two. Greer has played a ton of man and excelled, so I like this acquisition.
What were they thinking giving Jake Delhomme $40mm extension for 5 years??? Has there been any other QB to perform that badly in a playoff game, or any game for that matter?? And they are really hitching their wagons to this guy???
Frank Filchock performed that badly in a playoff game, but it came after it was announced he was approached by gamblers to fix the contest (which he turned down but was still eventually barred from the league for a time because he didn't report it). Getting to your point, Delhomme got extended because Carolina knows this offense responds to him. What I mean is that whenever they put anyone else under center who doesn't have Delhomme's fire (think Carr and Weinke) this O goes nowhere. They have to hitch to his wagon or completely redo their offense.
Assuming Vick passes whatever "tests" Goodell makes him undergo and gets back into the league, where do you see him going? Not only in terms of willingness to sign, but also where would Vick's skill set fit best? Or do you think Vick will be largely w/o a skill set at this point?
I think the best case scenario for him would be a team that wanted to do more of the Wildcat. Vick would be a great fit for that offense (well, at least the Vick from a few years ago would be). He'll also sell tickets and don't underestimate the value teams put on that.
haha, is Carolina's run heavy offense that unique and complex that they could not find another undrafted free agent to run it? one that does make so many poor decisions? How does he stack up with the other starting QB's metric wise?
The one thing that troubles me about last year's Delhomme versus the one in year's past is the lack of vertical passing that you speak of. Delhomme used to be one of the best and most prolific vertical throwers around but he wasn't that last year and that makes me wonder if he has lost something.
I see Vick in a Bills uniform, I'm not sold on Edwards nor Losman. Plus Vick + T.O. = Playoffs
I'd write Vick plus TO is not equal to playoffs but I can't find a way to get this keyboard to do the "does not equal" sign.
KC, what do you think of the Iggles pick up of Ellis "Sorriest Corner in The League" Hobbs? I think two 5th rounders is worth it...your thoughts?
Hobbs once again had subpar metrics last year but Philly seems to do a really good job with CBs that other teams struggle with (think Joselio Hanson). They also helped improve Samuel's coverage skills, so maybe they've got a plan for improving Hobbs as well.
Vick + T.O. = a terrible reality tv show!!
Just do: Vick + T.O. = Home for Playoffs
That's the way to write it!
Vick in Buffalo? He'd probably be the only guy out there that could manage to keep TO out of the limelight. I think ESPN would temporarily move their HQ to Buffalo if that happened.
I think every news organization in the country would park a broadcast van in Buffalo if Vick went that way.
C'mon math guy! not equals is "!=". Take it from an engineer
I stand corrected! Billy, you are my new formula double checker.
Imagine " Sportcenter Buffalo"
Hey, why not?!
If you were looking at DE coming out in the draft, how would you evaluate the player? Moves, speed, motor etc?
If I'm grading pass rushers, I'm looking for the effective use of a wide variety of pass rush moves. I want to see him use at least four moves and I'd like to see him use them both on inside and outside pass rushes.
Wow, I never seen so much backlash from you KC...lol Don't get me wrong I'm thankful for Matty Ice...but I do want to see Vick succeed and is Pacman got 40 chances, Vick deserves a second
Vick certainly deserves a second chance, but my issue is that he could be graded by ticket sales as opposed to on-field performance. If he lost steps while out of the game, the football purist in me says that he should not see the field, period. I'll bet some teams sees dollar signs in ticket sales and goes ahead with putting him out there regardless of his physical condition. If that happens and he's not up to par, it would be a shame.
Would we have to give them one of those stupid couples names like Brangelina? It would have to be what, TerreMike or TerreVick, right?
See what you guys started? Now we not only have SportsCenter moving to Buffalo, we also have some TMZ.com ready nicknames.
how bad are the Jet WR's right now? Do you see anything from Stuckey or Clowney?
I have concerns on Stuckey because a good amount of his production came when he wasn't covered by a CB. NY needs more out of him than that but I'm not sure he's up to it. I'm still up in the air on Clowney.
So... Does any team besides the Raiders make Vick run a 40?
I'm guessing no. What if he ran it in over 5 seconds? There goes the marketing advantage out the window.
Well fun as this has been, the clock on the wall says time for me to head out of here. Thanks for the time, KC. Same time next week?
I am with on that one J.B. Mrs. Scientist is cooking up some tacos, so I'm hitting the dinner trail. On a final note, please visit the Dr. Z/Nothing Is Impossible website to donate to Z's physical therapy efforts. You can find a link to it on the front page of my site, www.thefootballscientist.com. Hope to see you all next week!