Hey, quick predraft chat - I'll have to jet a little before three so let's get after it. I'll be back tomorrow for a 2pm recap chat.
Also, I'll be on TV today at 3 pm on ESPN, then on ESPNEWS at 4:20, 5:35, 6:15, 6:40, 7:05, and 7:50. ESPN 9-10. All times Eastern.
If the Padres think Tate may be worthy of the #3 pick, why is it that most/all other teams wouldn't be expected to pick him in the first round if the Padres don't.
Cost. He's expected to demand a huge bonus and many teams either don't want to give that to any player or don't want to give it to him. The Padres feel that at
Is Hobgood at 5 a terrible reach (if Wheeler is gone)? Or would he be a solid choice for the O's?
Slight reach. Not a terrible one, but he is not in the top tier of starters with Wheeler, Matzek, Miller. He's in that next tier with Chad James.
What are your thoughts on the HS Davidson? I like to think he has an approach at the plate similar to David Wright. Your thoughts.
Love the swing and the power. Was okay at third for me last summer, but the industry consensus is that he's less than 50% likely to stay there.
KLAW: Thanks for being a voice of reason on the coming Strasburg negotiations. I'm sick of all the carping about Boras and the money. If the players and the owners think this is so terrible they'll negotiate a rookie cap in the next CBA. Until then everyone getting high blood presurre over this needs to realize it's ridiculous to get upset over someone else's contract.
I agree. It's more moralizing, and members of the sports media are particularly bad at that sort of thing. Well, they're good at churning out ill-informed articles full of fury and sanctimony, but they're bad at things like economics.
I saw you had Giant taking LHP obviously nothing wrong having more pitching but doesnt a team desperate for hitting have to strongly look at a bat here or is this draft just that weak in the hitting department?
It's a really weak hitting draft. You have to take what's there. Matzek's a great call - he's
Do you like the idea of Pittsburgh taking Tony Sanchez at 4 even though it could be a reach?
No, not really. Great kid and I'm happy for him, but I think there are many players who'll be available there and will take slot who would be better choices.
I have heard something about a team needing a player's permission to draft him twice. 1) Can you explain how this works? 2) Did the Pirates get permission from Scheppers?
1) Just what you heard. If a team drafts a player and he doesn't sign, they must get his consent to re-select him in a later draft. 2) No. And the Nats didn't on Crow, unless something happened in either case in the last day or two.
Where do you see Max Walla being picked? Do you think he's sure to sign?
Sandwich round by the Angels or M's. No idea on his signability.
So the Padres aren't taking Minor right? Can Padres fans exhale now?
I've heard no indication they're taking Minor.
You have Bobby Borchering going 4th to the pirates, everyone else has him going 17th to the D-Backs, why do you slot him so much higher?
You're looking at an old projection. I have him going 11th to Colorado now.
I have a feeling Seattle is going to pass on Ackley due to Boras's demands. What do you think the odds of this happening are?
Zero. Your feelings need a tune-up.
Keith - sounds like the rumors now have the Cardinals considering Purke. Do you see them as a team that would be willing to go that far over slot for a player like Purke?
That'll be ownership's decision. I've also heard them on Miller and maybe Turner. If they pass on the local kid, they're going to catch hell from the fans and maybe even the media out there. Not saying it's the wrong move, but they had better have flak jackets.
any chance wheeler or jackson are available when the giants pick in the 2nd???
Sure, there's a chance. But neither is likely.
Word has it that quite a few high schoolers have come in with unexpectidely high bonus demands. Is this purely a tactic by their agents to attempt to "steer" them towards the teams more willing to bust slot - ie a higher payday?
There are more than 90 players in this draft saying that they need first-round money to sign. Since there are 32 picks in the first round, I predict with great confidence that the majority of these players will fall. Some of it is steering, but I had an agent tell me today that a lot of it is that their clients (or their parents) are reading online that so-and-so wants $5 million, so they want that kind of money too.
what's better value at 23, Brothers or Trout?
Different types of players. Brothers is, at worst, an impact reliever, and has a chance to start with two plus-plus pitches. I believe he'd sign for slot. Trout wants well over that, is raw, would take time to develop, but has a chance to be an impact bat in the middle of the diamond. I think they'll hew to slot, though, and take Brothers or maybe Everett Williams or Reymond Fuentes (if Fuentes gets there).
The Orioles at #5 why Wheeler over Matzek ?
I'm sure cost is one consideration.
Any chance USC'S Green falls? He could replace Jeter. No?
No. Right now I have Leake going 12 to KC and Green 13 to Oakland.
What kind of pro pitcher do you see A.J. Morris being? He put up those great numbers in college.
Big win totals, but that tells us nothing about him. He's maybe a 5th starter type, but didn't make my top 100.
I am not a first rounder to you?
where does aaron crow go? any chance the nationals take him again?
No. As far as I know he hasn't even consented.
where do you see Kyle Gibson going now? does he fall out of the first round?
Doctor's decision for a number of clubs. I wouldn't be shocked to see someone like the Red Sox bang him at 28 if he's there.
Might the Jays stay in Canada in the 1st with Paxton? The Jays don't have a lot of history of taking Canadian talent which is a little disappointing, but at the 20th pick wouldn't this be about right for him?
I know they're willing to consider Boras guys for the first time in years, but they cancelled their trip to see Paxton's last outing and I don't think they had enough looks to take him at 20. Maybe if he falls out of the first. That's just my guess, though. By the way, the idea that the Jays should take Canadian players just because they're Canadian is, well, a good way to have some really lousy draft picks.
You say Chad James is in the second tier of the high school arms. He has 2 plus pitches in his fastball and curve, and a decent changeup. What makes Purke and Matzek and Wheeler so much better then him? They all sound similar to me
Matzek touched 99 the other night and has four pitches and great command. Wheeler hits 96 just about every time out with a much better breaking ball than James has. It's kind of funny, but there's this analyst on ESPN.com - really handsome guy, short English name - who wrote 100-200 word capsules on each of the top 100 players in this draft. You should check him out. He's awesome.
If Bryce Harper was eligible where he be picked in today's draft?
First or second. Probably second.
Keith, speaking of Harper, have you heard anything confirming what last week's SI article hinted at? That Harper will be getting his GED and going to JUCO next year to be eligible for the 2010 draft? How big (and expensive) would that be for the Nationals to get both Strasburg and Harper?
Nothing against SI, but come on. That idea was floated at least as far back as last August. It's not new, and yes it's a possibility for Harper. The 2010 draft lacks a clear
Flattery will get you everywhere
That's not him. Name is too long.
Where do you think Steve Matz will end up and to what team?
I've heard Angels on him (or Garrett Gould) in the sandwich round. I doubt Matz gets out of the second.
The Braves seem to be in a bad spot at #7 since Wheeler and and Matzek will likely be gone. Is Alex White their best bet? I'm not liking that.
He's the next guy on their list - him or Minor. Rumor, unconfirmed by anyone in ATL, has Roy Clark asking for the cash to take Purke, and someone above him (possibly Wren) saying 'No.' The same problem would apply to Miller, whom they're also on.
Some of my answers are being cut off in the HTML version of the chat, but it looks like they're fine in the flash version.
Who do you take out of Matzek, Miller, Turner, Purke if all of them are seeking $5-6 million?
Any chance the Royals get lucky and Strasburg falls to them with the 12th pick?
$5. Just for asking the most ridiculous question of the day.
Minnesota has a knack for taking guys nobody expected them to and proving everyone wrong (Revere and Gutierrez.) Can they do it again? Any sleepers?
Well, it's a little early to put those guys in the win column ... but I've heard the Twins on Mier, Fuentes, and the college relievers, including Bullock. Which means they'll take someone else.
Who's your sleeper player in the 2nd-3rd round range who you really like a lot more than other people?
Guys I like more than the industry: Matt Davidson, Geno Escalante, Jordan Cooper, AJ Griffin, David McCallum.
Working off of Kevin's question: who are some players that you dont like as much as the consensus?
Hey Keith,You've had Garrett Richards rising your boards the last few months, and I was wondering if you heard anything on where he might fall. Last I checked he was end of the first round, and although his stats didn't show it, he sat consistent 95 on the radar gun and even hit 100 this year. Feel like a club would love his potential somewhere, maybe even as a closer.
Sorry, going back one question - guys I like less than the industry would include Tate, Minor, Heckathorn, Levon Washington, Justin Marks, Brett Jackson.
I had a scouting director tell me Richards had the second-best arm in this draft, but he wouldn't take him because of performance. I think there's a place for a guy like that in any draft, probably second round. You can't teach a kid to have a good arm, after all, but you might be able to improve his command.
Keith, do you think Miller's bonus demands are that firm? Do you think he would settle for less if Atlanta took him? Big gamble, I know, but don't you have to think about taking that risk if the other options are Minor or White?
He's pretty firm at $4 million. Personally, I would just take him, offer him a half-million over slot, and tell him to take it or go to school and roll the dice with some idiot college coach throwing him 169 pitches the day after he threw an inning of relief.
You have to love it when Willie Bloomquist can fetch around $3 million, but a guy like Matzek can fall a little cause some teams don't want to give him an extra $1 million or so.
Brian wins the chat.
You don't like Dominguez OR Marks? Now you can add anti-Louisville to your long list of biases, along with pro-Yankees, pr-Sox, anti-Sox, anti-Yankees, anti-West Coast, anti-East Coast, anti-Midwest, pro-owners, and pro-players. Hater!
I like Lynn's Paradise Cafe. Does that redeem me? You could throw a plutoid through the hole in Dominguez' swing.
I realize I am probably risking $5 and a ban, but is your Stassi pick for the Red Sox a rare incident of best player available and need meeting or a dumb move by Sox management?
The former. He'd be a completely sound pick at 28. They might be confronted with a better guy who falls for money reasons, though.
I know you dont probably care, but Baseball America has now come into agrfeement with you on the Pittsburgh taking Sanches pick in their draft update. Your top 4 now matches. Again, not that you care but I think its worth noting that you had that first about a weke and ahalf ago when everyone said there's no way they take him there.
I am posting this because I know the guy who fed me the original tip is reading and I'm reminding him that dinner is on me.
Keith: We're getting ahead of ourselves here, but how does next year's draft compare to this one?
A little better for bats, pretty deep in college arms, not clear on the HS arms yet. 2011 is the Epiphany Draft, though - Harper, Cole, Meyer, Hultzen, Gray...
I guess not all questions are worthy of your opinion. I appologize for taking up your time by sending in my question earlier. I won't waste your time or mine in the future.
I apologize for my inability to answer all 900 questions submitted in the last 46 minutes.
Top pick in the 2010 draft?
I'll do a piece on that (with Jason's help) later this week.
Who do you think the Indians will take at 15
Leake if he's there. Eric Arnett, or maybe Rex Brothers.
Do you see validity in the argument in drafting Sanchez at 4 so the Pirates can spend a larger amount of money on later picks?
No. I wouldn't run my draft that way. Yes, I recognize that there is lots of talent in later rounds, but the reality is that at
Slade Heathcott sounds pretty similar to AJAX in your draft description. How does he compare to AJAX?
Stronger. A lot stronger, actually. Football build, whereas Jackson was a basketball guy and still looks it.
Do you think Storen can make the transition back to being a starter?
Has the plus fastball, the command, and a good enough delivery. I never saw him in HS, though, so I'm not sure - I just think it's a reasonable thing to do. I don't believe that's the Nats' plan, though.
Any reason you have Kyle Gibson out of the 1st round? I'm sure the Yankees will take him in 2 seconds if he is there at 29...
Stress fracture in his forearm.
Keith, your answers are constantly being cut off. Is it the new look?
Yes, I've reported it. Try the Flash version under SportsNation.
Where would Dustin Ackley have been drafted last year?
I don't know who would have taken him, but I'd probably have had him third on my board after T-Becks and Posey.
Heathcott or Renfroe?
Heathcott. But I think the Yanks could grab him in the first and still get Renfroe in the 2nd if that's what they want.
OK, I understand we're having problems on the flash side too so I'm going to wrap early. Sorry about that but I'm not going to keep typing brilliant and witty answers only to have them disappear into the ether. Quick note - I won't be on OTL today after all, so first TV hit is at 4:20 EDT on ESPNEWS. Also, Jason and I are going to liveblog at least the first round here starting right around 6. Thanks!