Hi, everyone. We have the trade deadline behind us, and now the Cape Cod League and the signing deadline are occupying most of my time. Fire away!
Did the Padres get enough in return for Jake Peavy? How comparable were the prospects the Padres got from the White Sox to those in the rumored deals with Chicago and Atlanta?
I think the Padres did the best they could. This wasn't a Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee deal where the team would be on the hook for just one more year of salary. The Padres were trying to get $52 million off their books. The Braves' reported offer--I believe it was Charlie Morton, Gorkys Hernandez, Jeff Locke and a big league infielder (Kelly Johnson?)--looked better at the time. The Cubs reportedly would have given up Josh Vitters, Kevin Hart and some other prospects. I like that more than Aaron Poreda and Co., but the Cubs can't take on big money before they're sold. Kevin Towers did the best he could have.
Does the Reds trade make any sense at all in acquiring Scott Rolen? He is 34 years old, plagued with injuries, and is owed $11 million next year for a mid to low market team that already has a $74 million payroll. Not to mention they gave away two very big young arms with good upside in Roenkie and Stewart, who can pitch in big leagues right now! Wayne Krivsky finally gave the Bowden-esque Reds pitching and a farm system, and now Jockekety gives away young talent for a player who wanted to be traded to the midwest anyhow. What gives?
I have yet to speak to anyone who likes that trade. Rolen is an upgrade over Encarnacion, but the Reds aren't contenders and paid too much in terms of talent and 2010 salary obligations. Rolen is having a good season, but it's only his second good and healthy season in the last five.
How are the Tyler Matzek talks going? If he doesn't sign, how will it affect Colorado?
With virtually all the players looking to sign for well above MLB's slot recommendations, negotiations are only in the preliminary stages. Teams don't want to tick off MLB any sooner than their going to have to, so all those deals will be finalized in the days before the draft. That said, Matzek is probably the biggest risk not to sign among the first-rounders. He told teams he wanted "unprecedented" money, which is believed to be greater than the high school draft record ($7 million by Josh Beckett and Rick Porcello). The Rockies also had picks 32 and 34 in the draft and got two great values in Tim Wheeler and Rex Brothers. Signing Matzek at No. 11 would be a coup, but not signing him won't kill their draft. They aggressively took the best player on the board rather than letting him fall to a rich team, which more clubs need to do.
FYI, I posted a first round update on Baseball America's draft blog at <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=1352">http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=1352</a>.
Josh Fellhauer has been very impressive since being drafted back in June showing power, speed, and good OF defense as well. Was he a gem in from the 7th rd, and is his apparent power for real despite a slight 5'11" 175 lb frame?
That was a great value in the seventh round. (I'm a little biased, because I also took him in my annual pretend draft for BA.). I wouldn't read a lot into his stats, because I'd expect a Cal State Fullerton player to tear up low Class A, but he's a legit prospect. More of a gap-power guy than a true home run threat.
Jim, do you see Ryan Berry drafted by the Orioles actually signing? Any news one way or another? Thanks a lot!
The Baltimore Sun reported that he's flying to Baltimore for a physical and to finalize a deal. He wanted top two-rounds money to sign, and a lot of teams were worried about his shoulder. Peter Angelos usually worries more about health than any owner, but it looks like this deal is close to done.
Do you see the Pirates signing any more of their top 10 draft choices, especially considering the money that they've saved in their trades? And if so, any of the unsigned intriguing to you?
I do think they have more signings up their sleeve. There have been only three known signings for more than $100,000 over MLB's bonus recommendations, so there will be a LOT of them in the next 12 days. As for the Pirates, I think there's a good chance they'll sign high school pitchers Zack Dodson (fourth round), Zack Von Rosenberg (sixth) and Colton Cain (eighth), as well as a couple of other later picks. I really like Von Rosenberg--he was a late first-rounder/sandwich-rounder for me.
Thanks for the chat Jim! I loved your write up on the lack of value the Indians got for Lee and V-mart, could not agree more... what's the story with Matz? Please tell me the mets are going to sign him.. also.. what will it take to get Jim Callis on twitter?? Thanks!
I believe the Mets will sign Matz. They still need to be more aggressive in the draft, but I think they'll treat Matz as if he were the first-round pick they lost as free-agent compensation. For me to get on Twitter, some of my kids will have to go to college and create some free time. But that's a few years away.
Do you think the Sox will sign Younginer? Volz?
Kendal Volz hasn't pitched well in the Cape Cod League, so he won't get big money. If he wants to sign just for the sake of signing, sure. Haven't heard how Madison Younginer has thrown this summer, but he's the more likely of the two.
Do you think the Tigers will sign Turner, Oliver and Daniel Fields by the deadline? Which of that group do you think is most likely to not sign?
I think the Tigers will sign Jacob Turner, not for Porcello money but for a well-over-slot deal. I guess Andrew Oliver could go the indy route, but I bet the Tigers get that one done, too. Fields will probably be the toughest, as it will probably cost seven figures and his dad may want him to stick at shortstop.
Does Renfroe end up signing with Boston? How about Kline and Younginer?
Two more Red Sox: David Renfroe, yes. Branden Kline, probably not.
Pedro Alvarez, a Jim Callis personal favorite, is raking in AA. Batting .307, with obscene numbers in the last month. Has he turned the corner now that he has some pro experience, and is showing why he was considered by many to be the best bat in last year's draft?
That's fair to say. He's still striking more than expected, and I'm not sold he's going to be a long-term third baseman, but you can see why that bat earned him $6 million.
Do you think the A's go way over slot to sign Max Stassi, the catcher from Yuba City? I read Eric Kubota say that Stassi was the best prep catcher he has ever scouted and right after the draft the A's sounded like they want to get a deal done. Thanks!
They were very aggressive in both the draft and the international market last year, and they haven't spent internationally this year, so why not? I would sign Stassi for the low seven figures. I love him too.
what is your report on tim alderson? KLAW's report was pretty negative.
I asked a couple of scouts about him after the trade, and they both mentioned concerns about his velocity and delivery. I think fans believe in him a lot more than scouts do.
Jim i want to preface this by saying Im not going off his first 3 games with the Sox but his great minor league numbers. Do you think Josh Reddick will be the starting left fielder for Boston next year? I think they have shown an unwillingness to hand out another longer term/high money deal to Bay by how they have been burned by Lugo, Drew, Lowell
I've been wondering the same. The ball really jumps off Reddick's bat and it's hard to argue with his performance in the minors. The Red Sox have money to spend and I don't think they're precluding signing Bay, but I've liked what I've briefly seen of Reddick so far.
Brooks Raley received a bonus equivalent to slot of the 46th pick in the draft. Is he worth that much? Thank you.
I don't think Raley was the 46th-best player in the draft (though I'm not sure in the end that $750,000 will be the 46th-highest bonus in the draft). Scouts love how he competes, but he lacks an out pitch and doesn't have an overly strong build. That said, teams have money and they want talent. If the Cubs like Raley a lot, giving him $750,000 is a minimal investment for what he can be worth.
What do you think about the Jays current double play combo in Auburn in Scimpf and Goins? Also what do you think the chances are that the Jays sign their top 3 picks?
I really like Schimpf. He has a lot of pop in his bat and reminds me a little of (not saying he's this good) of Pedroia. I like Goins, too, not sure he's a long-term shortstop though. I expect the Jays will sign Chad Jenkins, James Paxton and Jake Eliopoulos, though I'm not sure if Scott Boras has a huge number in mind for Paxton.
What has gone wrong with the Mychal Givens signing? What has changed since Mychal was drafted? Does he not want to play SS for a team starved of SS depth in their system?
Sounds like Givens' asking price may have changed after the draft.
Do you see the Yankees coming to terms with their 1st and 2nd rounders (Heathcott and Murphy) even if it's for more than expected since if they don't sign them they lose the picks?
Yes. I think they'll sign both players.
Will the O's regret rushing Matusz?
I don't see why they would. He dominated Double-A and already was on the 40-man roster, so what was he going to really gain from making 4-5 Triple-A starts. He certainly looked big league-ready last night. I don't think he'll be fazed by making it this quick, and it prepares him to make a full contribution in Baltimore in 2010.
Who's your pick for the NL central now that the Cardinals are slumping and the Cubs are hot?
I keep going back and forth. I'll take the Cubs right now.
Any news on Nick Franklin? I read your BA article, but are there doubts he might actually not sign? I would hope not, thanks!
I think he'll sign in the end. In MLB's eyes, none of the signed first-rounder has exceeded their bonus recommendations, and no club wants to step out of line and be the first.
Vitters is clearly the best prospect in the Cubs system... Who is the 2nd best?
Let's kick off the lightning round with this . . . Andrew Cashner.
Julio Teheran or Michael Ynoa?
Will we be seeing Kentrail Davis in a Brewers' uniform, or is he going to slip through the cracks?
The two sides are far apart, and the Brewers thought they had a deal done in the low seven figures. That deal might not happen.
Brad Lincoln or Alderson
Does Strasburg sign, or wait till next year in hopes that San Diego drops past DC for the first pick next season?
I still think he signs in the end.
Yes or No. The Red Sox will regret trading Nick Hagadone?
No. They valued Hagadone highly but needed Victor Martinez.
Snider Lind or Markakis Jones ?
Saw a few Cape Cod games; what are your thoughts on Jedd Gyorko (Brewster) and Chris Sale (Y-D)? Thanks!
Gyorko is one of the best hitters in the Cape, an advanced bat. Not the prettiest body but he can play second or third base. Sale is arguably the best pitching prospect in the league, a big lefty who combines quality stuff and good command.
McCutchen or Maybin?
Holt or Drabeck?
Dominic Brown or Michael Taylor?
Kershaw and Kemp or Matusz and Jones?
Latos/Blanks or Hanson/Heyward
Hanson/Heyward. I like the Padres combo, but this is an easy one.
More likely: Josh Roenicke, Jays closer for the next 5 years or Zach Stewart, #3 starter for the next 5 years ??
Roenicke as closer.
C. Richard is a # ____ type starter through his prime.
4 or 5, at best. I'm not a big fan.
True or false, San Fran realllllly regrets Alderson for Freddy Sanchez?
Neftali Feliz, future closer or starter?
My gut says closer.
Knapp or Drabek?
Flores or Dee Gordon?
Drabek. And Dee Gordon.
Desmond Jennings or McCutchen
1st to the padres, Forsythe or Darnell?
McCutchen. Darnell. Not sure why the chat system is swallowing my answers.
Justin Upton or Heyward?
#1 pick next year; Washington, KC, or San Diego?
Evan Anundsen or Cody Scarpetta?
Do you think Pedro Alvarez is going to get the call up this season?
Probably in September. He's already on the 40-man roster.
Tabata or maybin?
Is it true that the Royals and Rangers have an extended time period to sign Crow and Scheppers?
Yes. They're treated like college seniors with no remaining eligibility.
Hosmer or Smoak?
I've got to run. See you next Wednesday . . . five days before the signing deadline.