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May 11, 11:00 AM ET
Fantasy Baseball with AJ Mass

AJ Mass
  (11:00 AM)

Good morning gang... I have three envelopes, one of them with a second cup of coffee inside... let's get to the chat!

Steve (CT)

I picked up Buster Posey in my 16 team league to stash. What's his value for trade at this point?

AJ Mass
  (11:02 AM)

Name value might get you something, but I don't think he's coming up any time soon. If your leaguemates agree, you'll get very little in return.

Greg (Boston)

Do you think Aramis turns it around? Sooner or Later?

AJ Mass
  (11:03 AM)

I am not in the Aramis camp. He's hit safely in something like 14 of 16 and still cant get the batting average to .200. Plus no extra base hits in eons... Not boding well

Chris (Boston)

Mr. Mass, yesterday's article is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

AJ Mass
  (11:03 AM)

So, you liked it?

Charles (NJ)

Wade LeBlanc, is he a legit fantasy starter?

AJ Mass
  (11:04 AM)

Not quite yet... right now, I'd only use him for spot starts

Jeff (WV)

AJ, I have an interesting one for you...In a h2h league, how do you feel about minimizing save fluctuation by choosing closers in the same division? I have done it for the last couple of years and it seems like almost every night one of my closers has at least a chance for the save...your thoughts?

AJ Mass
  (11:06 AM)

With the unbalanced schedule, I see where you're going with this. Certainly at the end of the year, when most teams are squaring off with each other, you're hedging to the middle, but you're also capping your upper end as well.

Gary (Simi Valley)

Can you discuss Mike Leake vs. Jhoulys Chacin vs. Edwin Jackson in terms of who you like best for this year?

AJ Mass
  (11:07 AM)

I think Chacin would be my pick due to the high K rate. Leake a close second. I didn't like Jackson in Detroit, and I certainly have no love for him in Az.

dan (chicago)

aaron hill: how do you think his season goes after his disappointing start?

AJ Mass
  (11:09 AM)

Not quite as bottom of the barrel as he has been, but I think we're looking at close to the real Aaron Hill for 2010.

Jim (Pomona)

Can Jon Garland keep this up?

AJ Mass
  (11:10 AM)

Can he keep up walking as many as he strikes out? Yes. Can he keep the ERA down and the wins coming in the process? No.

Ken Griffey (Seattle)

Will you guys keep it down out there! I'm trying to sleep!

pat (nj)

who are some starting pitchers I can try and deal Konerko for?

AJ Mass
  (11:12 AM)

You can TRY to trade him for Adam Wainwright. That doesn't mean anyone else is going to pull the trigger. When you're the one with the hot hand, it's always best to simply see what the others will give you and take the best offer if you like it. Otherwise, enjoy what you have.

Oliver Perez (Queens)

Just for the record, I am really really bad

AJ Mass
  (11:12 AM)

Yes. Yes you are.

Javier Vasquez (NY)

You rolling the dice on me today? And if i pitch well are you buying a turnaround?

AJ Mass
  (11:13 AM)

Considering right now I have you ranked 164 of 166 starting pitchers, that would be a firm negatory.

Jacob (The Island)

Lost a tough H2H matchup against MIB last week so need some waiver wire help. Do I pickup Jack or Sawyer? This is the last choice I can make for the rest of eternity btw.

AJ Mass
  (11:15 AM)

I think you go with Jack. I hear Sawyer is a negative influence in the clubhouse, what with all the unwanted nicknames.

Mitch (Chicago)

How safe is Brian Fuentes job? Should I go rush to pick Rodney off of waivers?

AJ Mass
  (11:16 AM)

Not a chance. Rodney is equally as full of the yuck.

brian (nyc)

isn't the odds 1 in 2 that you'll get the million and not 2/3 since there are only 2 envelopes left?

AJ Mass
  (11:18 AM)

Let's try this with 100 envelopes and 1 prize. You have 1 in 100 chance of winning. Now I open 998 of the envelopes -- not at random -- but ones I know are empty. Now, do you stick with your 1 in 100 envelope, or do you grab the only remaining envelope of the group that had a collective 99 percent chance of winning?

Evan Meek (Pittsburgh)

When am I gonna be closing games?

AJ Mass
  (11:19 AM)

As soon as the Pirates decide to trade Dotel - so, late July.

James (IND)

Is Andre Ethier a sell-high at this point?

AJ Mass
  (11:20 AM)

No, I think he's legit. I doubt you'd get equal value in return.

Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh)

How good am I? What do you see me finishing this year?

AJ Mass
  (11:22 AM)

Glad to see the Pirates are all fans of the chat. Read Hit Parade today to find out the answer -- hint, it's not good, Andy.

Matt (Baton Rouge)

Hey AJ, what's the deal with David Wright? He might as well be waving a toothpick around at the plate.

AJ Mass
  (11:23 AM)

Relax. If he had flied out to deep right nine times, the results would have been the same and you'd shrug it off. He's fine. He'll be fine.

Steve (SF)

Your statistics are seriously flawed. It's a wonder how you keep your job. Seriously I don't care how many envelopes you open if there are 2 left you have a 50% chance of winning....end of story!

AJ Mass
  (11:25 AM)

No, if I opened the other envelopes at random, you'd be correct. Because I know which envelope has the prize, and only will open the ones that don't, you still had only a 1 in X envelopes chance of winning, while the other has a much higher probability.

Nick (Madison)

What is the deal with Adam Jones?! Any idea if/when he will turn his season around?

AJ Mass
  (11:27 AM)

I don't. I've been down on him since the preseason. Until he shows me he can do a better job at choosing what pitches to swing at, he's just not going to hit.

Mariano (New York)

What is fair starting pitcher value for me?

AJ Mass
  (11:29 AM)

A No. 3 starter.

Casey McGehee (Mil)

How long can I keep this up? What will I have at end of year?

AJ Mass
  (11:31 AM)

Yeah, I think Casey is performing exactly at the level he should be. .300 average, decent power, no speed.

Ryan (PA)

AJ, what are your thoughts on Austin Jackson? Should I try to sell high or will he continue to hit? It is a dynasty league.

AJ Mass
  (11:33 AM)

I'd definitely keep him in a dynasty. I do see him slipping back a bit over the next few months, but his start is not a total mirage.

Henry (Chicago, IL)

What do you project for Marlon Byrd for the rest of the year?

AJ Mass
  (11:34 AM)

You guys are definitely picking out a lot of the Hit Parade names today. I like Byrd. Borderline top 10 right now. The average will slide back to .300 a bit, but he should be able to keep it there.

Tom (West Palm Beach)

You worried about Tulo's injury?

AJ Mass
  (11:36 AM)

Worried a bit. The MRI was clean, but this could linger all season. I'd expect a few more off days than usual, and I'd bench him until he plays two in a row.

Behind the Plate (Los Angeles)

Which LA catcher will be more useful the rest of the year: Martin or Napoli?

AJ Mass
  (11:38 AM)

Martin. I'd say Napoli, but every time I think he's in, they pull him back out!

Will (The OC)

Which speed guy projects the best stats the rest of the way: Bourn or Gardner?

AJ Mass
  (11:39 AM)

Gardner. I felt as long as he hit above .270 while Curtis is out, he'll have a job the rest of the way.

Bobby Jenks (Bullpen)

did i lose my job? whos gonna replace me?

AJ Mass
  (11:41 AM)

I don't begin to guess what goes on in the mind of Mr. Guillen. But I'd be sure to have Matt Thornton on my roster...

Bob (Boston)

HOLDS question...Contreras or Saito? Thanks

AJ Mass
  (11:43 AM)

Saito. I think we may see Jose in some save situations pretty soon.

Gary (Simi Valley)

Tom Gorzelanny or Ian Kennedy?

AJ Mass
  (11:43 AM)

Gorzo... now if only the Cubs could get him a few wins.

Kim (Brooklyn)

Forgive me for asking what might be an obvious question, but is there any real downside to starting three position players from the same team?

AJ Mass
  (11:46 AM)

Not in a rotisserie league, but if you're in a weekly H2H style league, then the problem is if you face a week of tough pitchers. (Or for one day, say three Rays vs. Dallas Braden was a bad idea.) Always better to spread the wealth, given equal talent. But to say it's "bad" to regularly start Utley, Werth and Howard would be a lie.

Sean (Kansas City)

How is Marlon Byrd a borderline top 10 when he wasn't even in the top 100 in last weeks Hit Parade? With your big focus on randomness, it almost seems useless to play fantasy since no one can gain an edge.

AJ Mass
  (11:47 AM)

The rankings in Hit Parade -- which are Tristan's and not mine -- are FROM THIS POINT FORWARD -- and not value to date. Byrd's value to date is huge, but going forward... he's nowhere near a top 10.

Webb (Nashville)

so last week ethier is top 5 NL bat and capps was top 3 RP overall. Now Byrd is a top 10 bat or OF? Captain of the small sample size squad, eh?

AJ Mass
  (11:51 AM)

Again Webb, you need to look at the question being asked. If I talk about value so far, obviously the only sample size available is a small one. It's May. Usually when I give rankings it's RIGHT NOW. When I am asked "for the rest of the season" I don't use rankings, but rather explain whether I think a player will sustain a hot start or rebound from a slow one. Ethier IS a top 5 bat and to argue he isn't means you don't understand stats. Now you want to argue if he WILL BE a top 5 bat in September... that's a different discussion. Pay attention, Webb.

Pete (NJ)

Pick ONE for the rest of 2010: Carlos Lee, Pence, Rasmus, Rowand

AJ Mass
  (11:52 AM)

Rasmus has done proved me wrong about him.

Josh (Seattle)

Thoughts on using Quality Starts instead of Wins?

AJ Mass
  (11:53 AM)

I don't like that category either, but it is better than the complete crapshoot that is Wins. If I had my druthers, I'd use BAA as the extra category.

Jared (New York)

Derek Holland?

AJ Mass
  (11:56 AM)

Got to be better than Harrison, no?

webb (nashville)

Oh and just FYI, the original Byrd question asked what you project for Byrd. Pay attention there champ.

AJ Mass
  (11:59 AM)

I do, challenger. And my answer was "the average will slide back to .300 a bit, but he should be able to keep it there." I used the top-10 line to show where it's sliding from, in case not everyone knew he was doing so well. Thanks for playing.

John (Denver)

buzzer beater: Wiggey, over/under 30hmrs?

AJ Mass
  (11:59 AM)

Under.

Jennifer (St. Pete)

Rank please for the rest of the season Sandra, Rupert, Colby, Russell, Parvati or Jerri? and Garza or Liriano?

AJ Mass
  (12:00 PM)

Rupert, Sandra, Parvati, Russell, Colby, Jerri.Garza, Liriano.

Marlon Byrd (Chicago)

seriously, quit talking about me so much

AJ Mass
  (12:02 PM)

Oh well, if Marlon needs a nap, I guess we have to go. Thanks to all for the spirited debate. Always welcome. We'll be back next Tuesday at this same time for another hour. Be sure to check out Hit Parade, and remember you can follow me on Twitter.Be seeing you!