Keith is flying from Atlanta to Boston today, but he will still be chatting, as long as his flight has wireless access. I'll let you know as soon as I hear something from him.
I'm on a plane - everybody look at me, cause I'm chatting on a plane...
Minor Minor rocks. That is all!
Maybe someday he'll be as good as Major Major Major Major.
Snark from 30,000 feet in the air? Just make sure not to tell anyone the door is on the left, because the door on the left only goes down.
If the guy next to me starts that open-mouthed 110-db snore again, all bets are off.
Keith, you are the Cleveland Indians drafting #5. Harper, Tailon, Pomeranz, and Machado are all off the board. Who do you take?
I'd take Whitson or Cox. I think Cleveland would take Choice.
You blogged that the Red Sox are "big" on Kolbrin Vitek. Do you think he profiles as a 2B, 3B, and OF in the big leagues? With the level swing, can he add more power going forward?
Outfielder. I don't project plus power but I do think he's got a chance to be a plus defender in center, although it's a significant risk since he hasn't played it. His risk/reward profile is more like that of a prep player, between the position change, lack of quality wood-bat experience, and iffy competition this spring.
What are the chances Whitson will be there at 9 for the Pads? Is that best-case scenario for San Diego?
Pretty good, and probably.
Please tell me that the Phillies aren't going to draft yet another raw toolsy HS OF in the first round. Any idea who they are keen on?
I wrote yesterday that they're strongly interested in Philly-area prep LHP Jesse Biddle - 6'3", up to 93, decent curveball that's a little slow, started throwing more strikes in the last few weeks.
The Giants can't be taken serious as contenders when they bat Freddy Sanchez third in the lineup.
Who took them seriously in the first place?
Who took them seriously in the first place?
Klaw, what adjustements do Matusz and Smoak need to make? I suppose that Smoak gets a pass due since he only has 100ABs...but Matusz has struggled more than last year.
Smoak is still having quality at bats. The results will come. Matusz is still inside of a year's worth of major league experience and he faces some pretty tough lineups. I'm not worried about either guy.
Should teams ever look to "Organizational Need" when drafting or should "Best Player Available" always trump it?
BPA for me.
Any thoughts on "Cowboy" Joe West taking the spotlight again Wednesday? At what point does MLB do the right thing and jettison this guy?
When was the last time MLB fired an umpire for just being bad at his job? I'm pretty sure the answer is "never." It would be nice if they'd stand up to the umps and remind them who's actually running the show, but it hasn't happened in the past and I don't know why we should expect it to happen now.
Where do you see Ryan Bolden going in this years draft? he seems like he has the potential to have 5 tools, but is still very raw.
Way beyond raw. Like, the FDA shows up at your house raw. I could see him going in the third-fifth rounds, but I wouldn't take him there. It's a 30 hit tool right now.
Any new recommendations for good vacation reading?
Just finished Jasper Fforde's Shades of Grey this morning. I'll be spending the afternoon chasing the frog if I can get a hold of some good Lincoln.
Do you think we'll see a string of call-ups over the next week or two now that the Super-2 deadline has passed?
There's no fixed deadline, so I'm not sure what has "passed." I do think that between June 1st and 15th you'll see a bunch of these guys come up.
I'd like to add that a Major League team isn't winning anything when they've wasted 84 PAs on a guy named John Bowker.
Yeah, but he was great with Sha Na Na.
Klaw, where would Bryce Harper rank on your recent top 25 prospect ranking?
Top ten, at least. I don't have the list in front of me but I wouldn't put him ahead of Strasburg, Santana, or Posey - guys who have high ceilings but can also step in tomorrow and contribute.
Anthony Renaudo, talk to me Keith. Tell me what you think of his Wed Performance and how it affected his draft stock.
It threw him right back in the first round mix for me, but I don't know that he'll get back into the top ten between the medicals, the likely price tag (I doubt there will be a significant discount for his injury), and the tendencies of the teams in the top 10 to hew to slot.
Keith, How good is A.Rendon at Rice? Should we be hoping the Astros finish with the worst record? Is he a lock at #1 next year?
He's tremendous. I wouldn't call him a lock with about 54 weeks to go till that draft, but he's the best guy there right now and if someone is going to pass him, I'd love to see that guy. Nearly all of the other top college names for 2011 right now are pitchers.
Most intriguing player who is destined to fall because of signability issues?
Ranaudo or Zach Lee. Lee's issue isn't dollars but LSU football. He's told plenty of scouts he just wants to go to school, although I chatted with a cross-checker yesterday who swears he'll sign if someone pays him.
Shouldn't Org Need play some role if it's close between two prospects? Especially if, say, your org's best prospect is a 20 years old SS or C and in the 1st round you're considering a college player at the same position - wouldn't they potentially hinder one or the other's development by blocking one? For example, Balt needn't consider Posey after taking Wieters the year before.
Devil's advocate: Catchers get hurt often, and it never hurts to have multiple top catching prospects in the system. If one pans out, you put the other one on the trade market.
Ten years ago, the talk was that high school pitchers were extraordinarily dangerous to draft in the first round, given the high flameout rate, injuries, etc. Is that still the case?
I am also flying Atl-Bos right now! Same flight? Can I get a question answered (don't want to come bother you and risk being shown the door)? Any insight on the Reds' Neftali Soto to catcher project?
Delta? That would be pretty funny. I'm in 35D. I haven't seen Soto but I admire the creativity. Teams are way too conservative about converting players to catching - some very good big league catchers have been converted guys, and if you have a guy with that combination of skills (good arm, footwork, strong build but not too tall), you should try it, often.
Are there any college relievers who can come up and make a difference quickly like a Drew Storen?
Not for me. Best bet would probably be Kevin Munson at JMU but he doesn't have Storen's ridiculous command.
What is Micah Gibbs' ceiling as a pro catcher?
Above-average everyday guy, fringe All-Star. Saw him again this week, I think concerns I heard about his glove and arm were overblown. He can catch and throw fine. It's a question of how much he's going to hit.
If you were drafting for the chi sox, in order to fix the terrible farm system would you draft more high ceiling hs players or would you draft college players who might be less of a risk? Also, who would you be looking at with the 13th pick in the draft?
The biggest difference between what they're likely to do and what I would do is slot. They're a slot team, likely to take a college pitcher at 13. I'd have to be open to an overpay at least once in the draft to try to get some ceiling back in that system.
PLEASE. Talk me off the ledge with Theo rumored to be targeting Vitek. Also I know prospect trades are rare but what would be a good one involving Casey Kelly that would help both teams. Thanks.
Why would you be on the ledge? What's the argument against him? Besides, it's not clear that he's their sole target, just a guy they really like. He might even be gone by their pick.
klaw... please give me one legit reason why posey is still in fresno? thanks.
Money. If that doesn't count, I got nothin'.
Regarding Renaudo, will he make it to the Yankees at 32? If yes, will the Yanks take him and is he more Joba or Brackman? Thanks!
I don't think that's out of the question. Seems like there's an excellent chance he falls to the Red Sox at 20, which is the start of a run (through 32) of teams that would probably pay well over slot to roll the dice on him.
Keith - any chance, maybe, that Dom Brown gets called up this year considering Ibanez's struggles?
A chance, sure. I wouldn't call it likely. Ibanez is struggling, but he's performing just enough that I can't see them benching him for a prospect right out of AA.
KLaw - any chance a guy like Brentz falls to the Phils? If so, think they would be interested?
No, and no.
So Grandal or McGuire for the Mets?
No, and no.
No, and no.
Klaw, how does Kevin Chapman project as a pro?
Doug: No, and no.
Ryan: Middle reliever. One pitch guy, and it's not that great a fastball.
So if Ranaudo is "right back in the first round mix" do you think the Twins could snag him up like they did with Gibson last year?
Different advisers = totally different price tags. So I'd say "not bloody likely."
First, awesome Catch-22 reference. One of my favorite books of all time. Second, I am really high on Stetson Allie. I know he has control issues, but what guy that is that young who can throw that hard doesn't? His upside is tremendous. What's your take?
He's not the typical loose-armed high school flamethrower - he's huge, strong, thick, a little stiff, which has a lot of scouts thinking he's a pen guy long term. I think you have to try him as a starter for a good three or four years, minimum, to see how the slider develops (he'll show a plus slider already) and to see how the arm holds up under increasing workloads. He's interesting but I don't see him as a top ten talent, even in this draft, between the history of questionable command and his lack of flexibility.
Oh, gee, they're showing The Office on the plane. That's so unusual.
How about Yasmani Grandal's arm? BA don't love his arm and defense.
I've gotten pop times under 1.9 seconds. He can catch, he can really throw, and he can already call his own game.
so who then to the mets?
I projected Zack Cox in my first mock, and also mentioned Workman as a candidate. They'd love Machado if he gets there, but I think there's still a reasonable chance the Pirates take him at 2.
Is Ozzie Guillen the league's best source of revenue?
He's certainly the best source of quotes. And there's usually a lot of truth in what he says, even if ... um ... I might not phrase it the same way.
Any way Christian Colon falls to the Twins at 21? Would they take him if he was available?
Unlikely but not impossible. I have heard the guy they really want at 21 is Alex Wimmers.
The 2011 class is supposed to be much better than this year. As a comparison, where would someone like Hultzen, maybe a mid-first round pick next year go in this year's draft?
I haven't seen him, so take this with a grain of salt, but it sounds like he'd be a top 5 guy in this draft - certainly over McGuire, for example.
Kieth-thanks for the chat. Any insight as to who the Dodgers are targeting in the draft. Also, are you concerned with Jaff Decker at this point?
I've heard them on Dan Klein and Stetson Allie, and they had all their top guys at the SEC yesterday. Decker has had FORTY FIVE AT BATS.
Would you be open to allow MLB teams to trade draft picks? How much would this affect the draft?
I wrote a whole piece last year arguing that it was a good move for MLB. Anything that gives GMs more flexibility is a good move. You'd see a few players use it to raise their price tags, but fewer than ten per draft, in my opinion. Mostly you'd see teams in contention trade picks for major league help, or teams trade up or down to get specific players.
Did you make it to The Varsity in Atlanta? Ummm, that's good eatin'!!
I only connected in Atlanta, and I respect myself way too much to eat there.
Expectations about Tillman's start Saturday? Also thought on my all-time favorite band- Creed?
I'm sorry, I can't even have you in the chat room. Please leave.
Keith, great chat as usual...3 quick questions....Any chance Yas Grandal falls to the Marlins...Would they take him...and should Eric Erickson come back as a senior to deal with his arm issues?
No, not sure (since it's so unlikely), and probably. I've heard the Marlins on Barret Loux and Aaron Sanchez in the first round and Marcus Knecht in the second.
who, if any, among the 2010 draftees has the potential to be in your top 100 prospects outside of harper? around what range would they be? thank you.
Taillon, Machado, Cox, Whitson, Pomeranz, maybe Ranaudo, Grandal, for starters. Impossible to say where they'd be since that's affected by what they do over the summer/fall.
Keith, Thanks for the chat ! Is there any logic as to why the Cubs would take their best starting pitching prospect, who had previously thrown 3 dominant performances in AAA - Andrew Cashner, and move him into the bullpen? Aw heck, I guess I just answered my own question.....logic and the Cubs never seem to go together.
Three "dominant" performances = insufficient sample. I don't have a problem with breaking starters into the majors as relievers, but I'd prefer that to be a longer role than the one-innnig job I think they have in mind for Cashner.
You may have answered this sometime, but where does major conference college baseball translate to an A-AA-AAA system? Around AA?
The best conferences - SEC, ACC - might be around high-A. It's all downhill from there. The big difference between college ball and the minors is all the midweek starters you get in D1 that are so far below the caliber of anything you'd see even in short-season ball.
What is the point of the Super-Two rule? All it does is give teams a reason to delay promoting top talent to the big-league team where it can, you know, help the team in the name of saving money? Shouldn't this rule be abolished in order to get the best product on the field?
It was a compromise in a CBA negotiation, and, like most regulations, had unintended consequences for both sides.
"tweeted" you about this earlier, but could 3B from Pitt Joe Leonard go in the top 5 rounds?
Could, yes, but not for me.
Klaw, what are the chances that Garin Cecchini ends up at LSU?
50/50 at best. I've heard the kid really wants to sign and he's recovering quickly enough that he'll be able to practice in front of scouts before the signing deadline.
If next year's draft is supposed to be much better, would a team be wise to not sign their first rounder this year in order to get a much better prospect with their compensation pick next year?
Couple of problems with that. One, you as scouting director or GM might not be around in a year to take that comp pick. Two, there's a significant loss of value in getting a player a year later - it's the baseball equivalent to the time value of money. Three, we think next year's draft is a lot better, but that could change. And four, a compensatory pick next year would be unprotected, meaning there's no compensatory pick if the team doesn't sign the player the second time around. Lot of risk.
What are your thoughts on Tyrell Jenkins? Too raw for the first round or is the upside/projection worth the risk?
I don't see him as that raw. I know the Yanks like him, not sure if he's their top guy at 32 but I'd be on board with that pick.
This is off topic with all these draft questions, but, have you heard anything about Adeiny Hechavarria since he started playing in Dunedin?
Draft is ten days away so that's what I'm focusing on here. I haven't even asked anyone about Hechevarria - too soon to draw any conclusions.
Which HS player will not get drafted this year, but have a shot at being a first-rounder in three years?
I assume you mean players who might not sign. Zach Lee, Austin Wilson, AJ Vanegas, maybe Sean Coyle.
Whats a good follow up to Settlers that is for two players ?
Carcassonne is our go-to two-player game right now.
OK, we have started our descent. Thanks for all the questions!