Every time they announce Jackie Bradley Jr. here at the Team USA trials, I expect the announcer to finish it with ... "$100,000 Jackpot Wad!"
Klaw, please help settle this argument. If a player drives in 100 runs, what is the proper way to say that? Is it 100 RBI's, or 100 RBI? Thanks
The proper thing to do is to forget about RBI or runs scored entirely.
Who hangs up the phone first on a Willingham-for-Teheran offer? Also, any chance Rizzo could convince Minaya to give up Pagan for, say, Capps or Clippard?
Atlanta would slam the phone down and swear they'd never take Rizzo's calls again.
No Carlos Santana buzz in the national media. Function of poor team record or because he came up in June?
And Cleveland. No athlete who plays in Cleveland gets national press.
Seeing as the Rockies don't seem much interested in letting Iannetta play, couldn't they build a decent package for Cliff Lee around him?
Are the Reds for real?
No, they're a figment of your imagination.
Hi Keith, if the M's can get Justin Smoak in a deal for Cliff Lee, is that pretty much the best scenario they could hope for? Would a Smoak/Saltalamacchia deal trump a Hicks/Ramos deal?
Saltalamacchia's trade value right now is somewhere between zero and negative infinity. I'd take Hicks/Ramos.
Do you think Brennan Boesch is deserving of an all star selection? Even if he regresses (which he inevitably will), you can't ignore his first half numbers.
Sure I can. He'd be a regrettable All-Star Choice.
Can you think of any - ANY - logical reason why Garret Anderson is still on the Dodgers' roster? His OPS+ is in the 20's.
Veteran presents - he brings little trinkets to the park and hands them out to the other players before the games. I heard the Giants want to trade for Anderson and put him behind the plate so Posey can go work on catching right-handed screwballs in AAA.
I have read that the Mariners are looking for close to major league ready prospects for Lee. Is it possible that the Reds have brought up Travis Wood to showcase him for a possible trade? Is this something that teams have done in the past in order to show that a prospect can play in the majors to make him more attractive in a trade/
Yes, happens all the time. I was shooting the breeze with Mike Salk the other night, and I thought the Reds could offer Alonso, Mesoraco, and Wood for Lee and at least be in the running.
Any reason to feel optimistic about AZ making productive trades if the FO is looking over Jerry DiPoto's shoulder and having the ultimate say on deals?
I'd like to think they'll give Jerry the benefit of the doubt. He's a bright guy, widely seen as a potential GM, and articulate enough to make a good case to ownership if he wants to do something.
Can you think of a recent GM move more comical than Amaro kicking Lee to the curb for peanuts and then potentially trading something of value to reobtain him?
That's why it won't happen. Amaro would have less egg on his face if he lay down under a pregnant chicken.
Do you think Ranaudo is worth top 10 money? What are the chances he really goes back for his senior year at LSU if the Sox don't pony up that kind of money?
I do. And I don't think he'll go back if they make a competitive offer. As good as he is, the '11 draft is loaded with starters at or above his level.
How concerned are you about Moustakas' home/road splits? He's hitting something like .450 with most of his HRs at home and .260 on the road.
I never know how to answer these questions. (My least favorite: "How impressive..." I get that on radio a lot. I want to say, "Completely unimpressed, most ordinary thing I've ever seen in my life." But I digress.) I think it's an issue when valuing him, worth mentioning, but at the same time having seen and liked his swing I don't believe he's strictly a creation of his home park.
Would you trade Mike Minor right now? What do you think the Braves could get for him?
Yes. I think he could be the central prospect in a deal for a second-tier player - not a Lee or a Haren, I mean.
Can you hold an hour-long special to tell us when your next chat will be?
Only if I can invite musical guests.
Do you think Chisenhall is Cleveland's opening day third basemen next year? What kind of player does he project to be down the line?
No, I think he's probably a year further away than that. I'm not sure how much to discount his mediocre performance due to the shoulder issue - still love the swing - but I can't see him being ready after just two more months in the minors.
While Montero's triple slash line of .253/.328/.410 has been a bit disappointing, he's .330/.394/.580 over the past 23 games. Does he arguably remain the best hitting prospect in the minors?
There's no arguably - he is not the best hitting prospect in the minors. But he's a lot better than his cold start would indicate.
Lots of people are saying you can't blame Manuel for picking his own guy because how could he face Howard if he picked Votto? Are MLB players really so selfish that they don't recognize when someone is clearly playing better than they are?
I would like to think that Howard - who strikes me as a pretty laid back guy, and a reasonably bright one - would not hold that "snub" against the team that just gave him a billion dollars.
Who *is* the best hitting prospect in the minors, now that Stanton's up?
Keith, why has Kansas City been SO slow at moving prospects along? Moustakous just moved to AAA this week and Hosmer, Montgomery, and Wil Myers haven't moved yet despite AWESOME starts.
Montgomery's been hurt twice. Myers is barely out of high school, and he's got work to do behind the plate. Hosmer is having great success after a lost 2009. I don't see any urgency in moving any of those three guys right now.
What a nice turn around for Bumgarner. Would you rather have him, the pitcher with decent stuff, great psyche and composure or a guy like Chapman with electric stuff who needs a lot more polishing?
Chapman. I'm not sure why you'd say Bumgarner has "great psyche and composure." I've never gotten that from him - he was more of a stuff guy himself.
Has Jerry Sands supplanted Dee Gordon as the Dodgers top hitting prospect? Sands has been a beast this year.
Most of what he's done has been against younger competition. I've talked to a few scouts about him - high end seems to be an average regular, low end has him as a 4A bat. Don't give up on Gordon - he was overpromoted to AA, and it may take him as much as a year to catch up. And he has great defensive value.
Why has the international signing period been going so slow?
It's typical. Some players still have yet to turn 16. And MLB has to clear some players who haven't already had their identities verified. It's going to take time.
Peavy goes down and the White Sox bring up.....Jeff Marquez. Are they not that high on Hudson anymore?
Hudson is coming up - he was removed from the Futures Game roster.
hi klaw - two giants questions for you: 1) what's ur take on posey's start - seems like the bat is playing pretty well so far and 2) was michael main a decent propsect worth taking a flyer on for the giants?
Not sure what to say about Posey - I only banged the drum for them to recall him for the first two months. Main was a decent flier considering that they sent a guy who shouldn't be more than a backup catcher to Texas in exchange.
Would do a Ramos/Hicks for Lee trade if you were the Twins?
Yes. Even if they got a pick in the 16-30 range + a comp pick next year, they'd be lucky to get near the value of Ramos and Hicks.
How come there are plenty of ML starters who have fastballs sitting at 90-92 mph, but almost nobody is considered a top prospect if they're under 94? At what point do location and secondary pitchers matter more on a scouting report than the radar gun?
Most amateur pitchers pitch less often than every fifth day. Therefore, we want to see guys who have more velocity because we know it's likely to back off when they're pitching more often. (Hence the whole "he was throwing 95 when we put him on the bus" joke told by scouts at player development's expense.)
I hate the All-Star game and I don't think Strasburg belongs. That being said, if the game truly counts, shouldn' they just put the best 25 players (and only 25) on the roster and play to win the game?
They don't play to win the game. They play it to just play it.
Why are the Padres not in the running for Lee. He seems perfect for them - vet /leader of a staff and playoff tested. Would a package of something like LeBlanc, Gregerson and/or 2 top minor leaguers do it or not enough for the Mariners
What is the rule on service time for a guy like Alex Gordon? If he stays in the minors for the entire season, do the Royals get an extra of control of him?
An extra year, yes.
With Peavy likely out for the season, do the White Sox make a run at Cliff Lee? If not, do you see the Sox as viable contenders in the AL Central after losing their ace (at least their ace for the past month)?
Even if they included Beckham, I'm not sure they could pull that off. And I didn't see them as viable contenders with Peavy, so it seems less likely now.
How much do you love doing these chats?
I don't know. How impressive is it that I do them?
Keith, Betances is due to struggle soon right? How surprised are you that a guy who had control problems before, comes back after TJS and now all of the sudden is pounding the zone?
It is extremely strange, but I wouldn't predict struggles just on that basis. He's always had a live arm.
Why do you hate the Rockies so much? You've always picked against them and never give them credit for being one of the best teams in baseball the last 3+ years
I'm sorry, I know some of you hate when I pick these whiners ... but this is beyond stupid, since I picked the Rockies to win the division this year.
What kind of stuff does Mike Minor have? I'm hearing rumors of a Corey Hart-Mike Minor trade, sound like a good deal to you?
I wouldn't trade anything of value for Hart. His first half is way over his head, and hitters who can be beaten that easily would scare me if I was looking to acquire them for a playoff run.
KLaw: I need to mow the lawn before I go into work. Can you give me a good reason to stick around.
At 1:59 I'm going to leak LeBron's destination.
He wasn't in your blog, but isn't Ryan Zimmerman one of the biggest snubs of the all star selections? Or is not a snub because Rolen and Wright are deserving (which they are)?
That's why I didn't include him, but Joe Sheehan made a point in his newsletter I didn't consider - Zimmerman could be that "utility" guy on the bench, since he could easily slide over and play short for an inning or two. Better to use him out of position in an emergency than burn a spot on Infante.
At what age/level do you being to take a prospect seriously? For example, Gary Sanchez has had a great start in the GCL, but that league is so far away and he is so young. When do players like him get first start getting recognition on prospect lists?
At that age/level, it's more about tools than performance, as long as the performance is at least acceptable.
Keith, I don't know if you heard about this, but I'm a free agent. That is all.
I heard you'll sign with whoever names their arena for you and gives you the key to City Hall.
Would you have considered Miguel Olivo a poor choice for the All Star game because, despite being perhaps the most valuable catcher in the first half of the season, his first half performance was most certainly a huge fluke?
The catching crop is so thin that it's more palatable to take a fluky guy there - and he's a good defender who has shown power in the past. Wouldn't have been worth a rant, at least.
So would I guy like Migual Sano, who destroyed the DSL got promoted to the GCL and is still destroying pitching, at 17 years of age(or so were told) ever be considered for your top 100 prospect list?
He was on it last year.
Do you ever ignore stupid questions??
If I didn't, this chat would be flooded with them.
Should I not lean over the rail and go for foul balls when I'm in the upper deck?
If it's that important to you, I'll send you a freaking baseball. They're about $10. The hospital bill might be a little more than that.
It is absolutely painful to read your answers regarding Brennan Boesch. It's like you won't concede that a player can be a late bloomer. Headine: early returns on a player don't always equal later returns.
Wrong. I've seen plenty of late bloomers. I don't believe he is one of them.
Last place team just offered Alcides Escobar for Pedoia, since I'm challenging for 1st place. His minor league numbers look great but his MLB number look awful. Forecast for rest of 2010?
Escobar? I've never been a big fan. He can run, poor plate discipline, short swing should make contact but not produce power, questionable makeup.
Late Bloomer: See Denard Span
Good example - guy acquired a new skill several years into his pro career.
You watching Top Chef this season? Is it just me, or does Angelo get on your last nerve?
I'm one episode behind (no Bravo in the hotel room - but I get the Golf Channel and the "Cortoon Network," FTL) but yes, he's annoying. It's not the arrogance - he's obviously very talented - but the delivery. The Voltaggios were arrogant but so much more matter-of-fact about it that it never bothered me.
You ready for the new season of Psych to start already?
Will Colby Rasmus' swing always warrant a high K-rate?
I don't see him ever being a low-K guy, but he's not going to be a 150-K guy forever.
Regarding Garret Anderson, it's presence, not presents like you receive for X-Mas or Birthday, KLAW you are the worst, get off ESPN.
Priceless. I'm sure those of you with two functioning neurons will forgive me sharing this one.
Have you seen Lars Anderson this year? Is he ever going to be the player the Sox front office thought he would be?
I haven't seen him this year at all. Everyone I've talked to about him over the past year and a half say it's in his head, not his bat.
Re: Eric (Chicago): http://darwinanity.org/im/thatsthejoke.jpg
Wil Wil Myers can ba a all star even if he goes RF?
I'll stop short of All-Star and say above-average player.
I keep hearing David Ardsma is on the market, but I don't see the value. Are contenders really looking at him?
Why not? Could be a 7th/8th inning guy for some clubs, and no one ever shies away from that velocity.
KLaw, where do you keep your Top 100 Books? Any Vonnegut on that list?
Most of them are in boxes in storage. Unless you meant the list - just google "klaw 100." One Vonnegut.
What kind of power potential does Domonic Brown have? I know there were some who questioned his power entering the season.
Thirty HR potential. Needs to keep his weight back to maximize it - could be even more than 30 in there.
What is Scheppers' ceiling?
If he starts, number one or two starter. Higher probability that he's a reliever, in which case top-10 closer.
Giants prospect Eric Surkamp struck out 14 yesterday? What's his ceiling, and could he be a useful trade chip?
Too old and experienced for his level. Fringe value in trade, at best.
Do the Indians have the prospects to be contenders in 2012?
I don't see how they're going to assemble a contending rotation given what's in the system. Am I missing some big arms there?
Chris Heisey a career 4th OF? Seems like he has the tools to play everyday.
Everyday guy for me.
By the way, there's a "late bloomer" I buy.
Buster Olney reports the Phils are taking call regarding Jayson Werth? Does that mean the Dom Brown era may start sooner than we all thought?
I guess so. But wouldn't keeping Werth and playing Brown over Ibanez make more sense? Unless you can really clean up in a Werth trade - and I don't think Ruben's trade track record is very good - there seems to be a good chance you end up with less value through two deals.
I was looking at Asher Wojciechowski's numbers in rookie ball, and they're pretty dominant. For college players like him at those low levels, should that type of performance be expected or is it something to get excited about?
It's to be expected. I'd say be glad if it's there, be very worried if it's not.
Just tweeted this, but I've learned that Dickie Thon Jr is going to sign with Toronto before the August deadline.
Could Uconn have two players selected in the top 10 next year?
Yes. Springer is making a real case for himself as a 1-1 candidate.
Do you think that Eric Goeddel will be an actual prospect and did the Mets actually go over slot for once for the right player?
An area scout I trust saw him 94-97 in relief at the end of the spring. Not only was it a good pick, it was good value.
What have you heard about Ariel Ovando?
Shock at the dollar figure. All bat, limited defensive value. Some concerns on his swing, especially how his lower half works, but good feel with some power even to the opposite field.
Read anything from Russo other than Empire Falls? I really liked Straight Man and Nobody's Fool.
Loved all three as well as the Risk Pool, and enjoyed Mohawk. Whore's Child was up and down, but I did really like the title story.
I saw you're following the corn sweetner lobby's twitter page. Thoughts on HFCS?
Lobby is right. I avoid HFCS wherever possible. It's bad nutrition and bad economics. Lift the sugar quotas, end corn subsidies, and let's see how the market sweetens its packaged goods.
Klaw, I've seen from several of your articles and twitter posts that you are not a fan of Evan Meek, All-Star. I know McCutchen is the more exciting player and every baseball fan would rather see him, but why is Meek not deserving of the all star bid?
He hasn't even been one of the top 10 relievers in the NL, once you adjust for BABIP luck. Is there ever an argument for putting, say, the 12th-best ANYTHING in the All-Star Game?
Any food recommendations in Vancouver?
If Takis (Greek place) is still there on Davie, that's a must. Everything was amazing, but the hummus in particular was out of sight.
Klaw, are you a proponent of the "boatload-of-prospects for a star" trading deadline trade if it's almost a certainty that the star is going to test the free agent market and that the Yankees are prepared to throw major dollars at him?
Prospects in the hand will nearly always beat the possible draft picks, which could always turn into one instead of two, or a second- or third-rounder instead of a low first.
Where can I find the adjusted BABIP stat? I couldn't find it on Fangraphs.
FIP and xFIP take it into account.
1) Any question about will X ever be an all-star should be answered by "Yes, if Charlie Manuel is managing" or "Yes, he can be as good a pro as Infante"...2) What's a guilty food pleasure for you, i.e. a fast food or junk food that you know is really slumming it?
1) I love that. 2) Five Guys. Oreos. Krispy Kreme glazed donuts (never cake). Carvel - but that's not slumming it, that's just good ....
You promised: Where is Lebron going?
To the gym.
I'm noticing a distinct lack of Omar Infante questions. I assume you're ignoring them rather than light the fires of people who have nothing better to do than write long diatribes that attempt to justify his name being mentioned with Pujols and Halladay.
Whats your take on Josh Thole....backup catcher, league average catcher, solid regular?
Solid regular with defensive improvement.
KLaw, i cant afford to be an insider. Can you grade the Yankee draft of 2010.
It's $15 a year if you buy ESPN the Magazine (http://bit.ly/OOUmP). You can't afford that? I bet you spent that on beer this weekend. The Yanks' draft is going to depend heavily on how many late picks they sign.
Look I agree with your reasoning for using these advanced metrics, but you can't tell me we should be using BABIP and other nerd tools to pick All-Stars. You have to go by concrete stats because the average fan doesn't care that his xFIP is low if his ERA is high. And you can't say you should only bring stars to help promote the game then say Votto over Howard, Howard is a bigger name Charlie should have left off Adrian and brought Bell or Latos to begin with.
"Nerd tools" - nice way of saying "tools I don't understand." I have no issue with Howard going, since as you said, he is a star, and he does give you a good chance for a "wow" moment. My objection is to Howard over Votto, not to Howard as an All-Star.
Don't forget about the BBQ popped potato chips from Trader Joe's. They aren't THAT bad for you, but when you eat the whole bag (which is hard not to do), it becomes a lot less healthy.
Absolutely. And now they have these chocolate-covered ice cream cubes ... unreal.
re: FIP and xFIP, wouldn't it be more accurate to say they do NOT take BABIP into account? Or at least that they correct for fluke BABIP by leaving it out of the equation?
Yes, that would be more accurate. Thanks.
Keith, you rock! What's your opinion of Robinson, the OF in the Dodgers system? He is putting up good numbers at AA.
Trayvon? I like him. Could be a top 100 guy by January, although I'd be projecting some on the power.
What's the basic difference between FIP and xFIP?
The latter normalizes the pitcher's HR/FB rate. It's not clear, to me at least, whether that is smoothing out ability as it eliminates noise.
I meant the average fan ! I actually understand (most) nerd tools. Still enjoy the chats Klaw keep up the good work!
Ah, you didn't bust out the scare quotes for that.
"chocolate-covered ice cream cubes"??? In my day, they called these "Bon-Bon's"
That's it. Couldn't find the word in my head.
Of course, now I have Soul Coughing playing on my internal soundtrack. Not that that's a bad thing. Move aside...
Why do you worry about BABIP and the like in retrospect? I get it for forecasting and even for analyze inputs versus outputs, but the ASG is a reward for contributions. The hits (or lack of) carry value even if we have solid reason to assume it won't happen going forward. Flipping the argument, I think Bonderman would have 2 or 3 ASG selections if we just followed predictive stats. And Javy Vazquez would ...
Putting Meek on the All-Star team gives him credit for benefits that came from either his defense or luck. How does that make sense?
Not being sarcastic, they should just let you pick the all star teams.
I'd still get some parts wrong. I admit it's not as easy to pick them as it is to pick them apart.
Who do you have in the World Cup Final?
I'm disappointed I won't get to watch it - it's during the pregame practice for the Futures Game. No rooting interest, although I expect the space cakes will be half price in Amsterdam if the Dutch win.
Great job on being ahead of the curve on Mike Trout. What is his power upside?
20-25 home runs, conservatively.
Have you ever seen a league more under represented to what their roster should look like than the NL this year? If you were given free reign to pick a team to beat the AL, how much different would it look?
Wildly. Whereas the AL roster wasn't all that bad outside of a few starting pitchers.
Hagadone on the DL with "shoulder discomfort"..... are his days as a starter numbered?Is he a top 100 guy as a reliever?
Yes. I had him at 100 last year (I think) as a reliever.
How do you have Brown rated higher than Trout?
Among other reasons, Brown could play in the majors tonight, while Trout is at least a year away.
On FIP and xFIP, xFIP is better usually for smaller sample sizes due to the relative rarity of HR/IP (for relievers and split-season stats per se). Unless you believe everyone has the same hr/fb rate (unlikely), FIP is a better indicator over a greater sample size.
It also looks dumb in retrospect to put guys like Meek when they come back down to earth later in the year or next year and you say "That guy was an All-Star"? Rewarding average players for lucky performance is not good. Franklin last year is a good example too and you were right about that.
Klaw, question about BABIP, I see alot of writers say that so and so has a high BABIP so they will regress, but high BABIP in relation to what? What should we be comparing BABIP to? The hitters current BA? Previous BABIP numbers over their career? The league average for BABIP? If a guy has a .400 BABIP but he's batting .380 is it right to claim that he will regress?
For hitters? Career average is a better indicator. But I've seen some people criticize prospects in the minors by arguing their BABIPs are going to regress - I don't see that argument at all. If a great hitting prospect has a .400+ BABIP, that's not a sign it's going to regress, it's a sign that he's outclassing his league.
OK, that's all for this week. Not sure when I'll chat next week around my travel but I'll post something on Twitter when we fix a chat time. Thanks for all the questions!