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July 8, 4:00 PM ET
Chat with KC Joyner

KC Joyner
  (4:01 PM)

Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!

Soner (Phoenix, AZ)

KC Joyner,As much as I think Revis deserves to be paid, isn't the contract of David Harris getting way overlooked? Revis says the Core 4 should be paid for a dynasty, but what about a happy medium to keep all 4?

KC Joyner
  (4:03 PM)

Might as well start this off with a Revis question. I don't get the impression from Revis' comments that he is much interested in the other contracts except in how they affect his deal. That defense is much more than just Revis alone, so the Jets management has to keep that in mind more than he does.

Gorman (Baltimore, MD)

Love your chat KC. Who is the best BACKUP quarterback in your opinion? I think I gotta go with my Ravens and Marc Bulger. You?

KC Joyner
  (4:03 PM)

I would if Bulger were the QB he was a couple of years ago. Now I might have to go with Pennington (assuming he's healthy) or Tyler Thigpen (or at least those are the two best I can think of off the top of my head).

Andreas (Hamburg)

Hi KC,Do you believe that there will ever be a free agent situation (hype) in the NFL like the current one in the NBA ?

KC Joyner
  (4:05 PM)

I'll put it this way - with the hype the James situation is getting, the NFL is seeing the potential upside of allowing more free agency. The players did win full free agency on two different occasions over the years and gave it back to the league, so that offers proof the league isn't interested in full free agency. In sum, I can't see this happening in the NFL.

BSB (The Birthday Boy- Swampy Philadelphia)

Hey KC, Who do you think are the most creative play callers in the NFL?

KC Joyner
  (4:06 PM)

Happy Birthday, BSB! Always glad to give that kind of a shout out to a chat regular. Regarding playcallers, I did mention in last week's Insider article that Mike Heimerdinger might be the most creative run playcaller in the league.

Sean (Annapolis, MD)

Dallas Clark; great fantasy tight end or greatest fantasy tight end of all time?

KC Joyner
  (4:08 PM)

Great but not greatest. His value drops off whenever Indy has to flex him out as a WR (his metrics there have always been mediocre). That makes him less of a threat than Gates and keeps him from the best of all time title.

Kenny Mac (DC)

I can't make my fantasy draft this year, and I suck at fantasy football anyway... any chance you'll be in the DC Metro area on 8/13 and want to draft my team? The guys would love it!

KC Joyner
  (4:09 PM)

I'd love to help but I'll be in Florida for the rest of the summer. Can't you call into the draft? I've done that before and it worked out well.

BSB (Philly)

Is Brick worth the cash for the J-E-T-S?

KC Joyner
  (4:10 PM)

In a word, N-O. As noted in a recent Insider article, left tackles are not being valued as highly by many teams. New York has a good one in Ferguson but he shouldn't have been the highest payment priority on their roster.

LeBron James [via mobile]

I am quitting basketball to concentrate on becoming the 2nd greatest football scientist of all-time.

KC Joyner
  (4:11 PM)

LeBron, being a scientist doesn't pay anywhere near the money you are getting. Don't do it!

Hayden (Logan, Utah)

who is mike heimeburgerden?

KC Joyner
  (4:12 PM)

It's Heimerdinger. He is the offensive coordinator for the Titans and is one of the most creative minds in the NFL.

Texans Fans (Yes, there are some)

We just read your article and are ready to perform Hari Kari. Thanks.

KC Joyner
  (4:13 PM)

Now I'm causing fans to commit ritual suicide? Let me throw out another don't do it warning! Kubiak may very well not be like Shanahan in the player management area. At least wait until he shows which side of that fence he is on (and even then don't do it!).

Robert (Huntsville, Al)

The Redskins try and do what the Heat are doing every year. It brings back painful memories of Bruce Smith, Deion Sanders and...wow, I can't even think of the safety that they paid a ton for. Wait...there were two of them! I'm going to go cry now...

KC Joyner
  (4:14 PM)

LeBron getting compared to a Redskins safety - ouch!

Robert (Huntsville, Al)

How is Vincent Jackson trying to get Marshall money? When was the last time Jackson had 100+ catches? I like Jackson, but I think he is crawling up the wrong tree...

KC Joyner
  (4:15 PM)

They are really two different types of receivers. Marshall is a dink and dunk type and Jackson is a vertical threat. That being the case, Jackson could make an argument that he actually deserves more money.

BSB (Philly)

When Chris McCallister was in his prime on the Ravens, didn't he post metrics similar to Revis? Isn't any talented corner going to thrive in a Rex Ryan system that allows so little time for the QB to sling it?

KC Joyner
  (4:17 PM)

McAllister had good metrics under Ryan but they weren't as good as Revis'. The thing is that the only other CB in the league last year to post a YPA under four yards was Dwight Lowery. Jets fans just can't get his subpar playoff performance out of their heads but they need to understand Lowery could be a very good starter. He's that good.

Phil K (Silver Spring, MD)

What does the football scientist drink on Sunday afternoons while watching the games? For this (amateur) football scientist the answer is bud light bottles.

KC Joyner
  (4:18 PM)

Alcoholic brews and football science don't mix in my lab. I'll partake now and again but it takes a clear mind to break down tape.

Tim (El Cajon, CA)

KC, who would you say is the NFL's biggest bust now. Leaf or Russel?

KC Joyner
  (4:20 PM)

I'd still have to go with Leaf. Russell could still potentially land a job somewhere (after this latest issue cools off) and if he does that and has success, he'd be ahead of Leaf. Russell also at least posted some accomplishments like beating Denver at Mile High, something Oakland hadn't been doing much of late.

Madscientist (Venasque, France)

On a little family vacation and I thought I would drop you a line from the south of France. Are the Broncos really as bad as everyone is saying? They did win 8 games and seemed to improve thier D-line.

KC Joyner
  (4:22 PM)

There may be some who are down on Denver but don't count me in that group. They did make needed improvements to their defense and their offense was actually very solid for much of last year. My only concern is that McDaniels may try to force the Tebow issue and if that happens, I could see Denver having a subpar year.

Steven (Kingsport, TN)

Dinger is also a heck of a QB friendly playcaller as well.

KC Joyner
  (4:23 PM)

It's been a long time since I talked to someone from Kingsport! I used to live in Johnson City, so I have at least a bit of Tennessee roots. You are spot on with Dinger - he crafts his gameplan around his players quite well.

Zach (Bronx, Ny)

I was intrigued by your discussion of strong side 4-3 LB's in a previous chat. Who in the NFL do you like at that position and do you think the fact that it's harder to find these guys is why some teams are moving to 3-4?

KC Joyner
  (4:25 PM)

I think the choice of 3-4 vs. 4-3 for teams boils down to if they have top notch pass rushers. It is much easier to playcall a pass rush in a 3-4 front than it is a 4-3 front. If a team has quality pass rushing defensive end types, they go with a 4-3. If not, they go with a 3-4.

Bears Den(Montreal, Canada) [via mobile]

Does Jay Cutler have the skill set to put up Kurt Warner type numbers in Mike Martz' offense this year?

Eric (Sun Diego)

Who will have the (total) better numbers this year under Martz, Forte or Taylor?

KC Joyner
  (4:26 PM)

Cutler does have the vertical passing skills and aggressive mindset to succeed under Martz. Forte will have a much better stat year this season and will be another player who benefits from Mad Mike's playcalling.

Hayden (Logan, Utah)

desert island: hot chick, or a TV that works and gets sports?

KC Joyner
  (4:27 PM)

Football is my life but if push came to shove, I'd have to choose Mrs. Scientist's company on a desert island.

Dean L (Arlington, VA)

How does the tape and your metrics project Matt Leinart this year? Will he dramatically hurt Larry Fitz's numbers?

KC Joyner
  (4:29 PM)

Mixed mindset here. Leinart isn't Warner in many ways, but Warner had issues with downfield passing last year. It may be a case where the upside of the vertical improvement at least partially offsets the drop in overall talent. To put it another way, Fitz's production may increase a bit and Leinart will be 85% of Warner stat-wise.

BD (DC)

Re:4-3 vs 3-4 I generally agree with you abotu why teams choose to run a 3-4 (increase the pass rush). Why are the Redskins switching then? We had a good pass rush with Orakpo/Carter last season.

KC Joyner
  (4:29 PM)

You got me. That move has all the looks of a coach making a change for the sake of making a change.

BSB (Philly)

Will Matt Forte and Ryan Grant have similar fantasy years? Your crystal ball says....

KC Joyner
  (4:31 PM)

Grant did a much better job on good blocking YPA (i.e. plays where he received good blocking) last year, so he does have a lead in that important category. Forte will end up catching more passes but all in all I'd give a slight edge to Grant.

Robert (Huntsville, Al)

But the Cardinals will revert to the 06(?) Steelers offense. They will be more run heavy with Leinart....

KC Joyner
  (4:33 PM)

In a word, yes. Their RBs did a great job when they received good run blocking last year. Whisenhunt has been wanting to go to more of a run-oriented offense and this will give him that opportunity. One caveat is that the his Steeler offenses were based on pass to get a lead and run to win the game gameplans. Look for Arizona to adopt a similar philosophy.

B (NC)

Eli has improved every year since he was drafted, culminating in last year's 4000 yard season. Is the arrow still pointing up and do you expect Eli to continue to improve, or is he approaching his ceiling?

KC Joyner
  (4:34 PM)

I'm on the arrow pointing up side of that ledger. Manning has the best receiving corps he's had in NY this year. He'll top 4,000 yards again (barring injury, of course).

Brock (Green Bay)

Who has the edge in the NFC North race this year? Brent and the Vikings or the best young QB in the NFL A-Rodg and the Packers

KC Joyner
  (4:36 PM)

I'm leaning on Green Bay. The big concern there is whether they can get their O line to pass block better, but they did quite well in that area down the stretch. Pro-rate that out over a full year and add in everything else and I think the Packers are a true Super Bowl contender.

Brock (Green Bay)

What is your Superbowl pick for this year? Mine is Packers v. Jets

KC Joyner
  (4:36 PM)

I could buy that. I could also buy Ravens-Cowboys.

Hayden (Logan, Utah)

what NFL player could beat up brock lesnar?

KC Joyner
  (4:38 PM)

Who would want to try? Lesnar is a beast. Coming back to post a big win like that after going through that diverculitis (sic?) is simply awe inspiring.

Robert (Huntsville, Al)

Jets this year = Redskins every other year. The words that come out of LT's mouth make me laugh so hard. I'll be placing a "under" bet on wins this year for the Jets...

KC Joyner
  (4:39 PM)

The issue I have with the Jets is that all of the upside talk for them assumes Sanchez is going to improve. They made it as far as they did in spite of his play last year, not because of it. If he has a sophomore slump, NY will be very hard pressed to make the playoffs.

glenn W. (houma, louisiana)

Greetings KC. How are you?What are your thoughts about the Giants? Are they a playoff team? And will Jason Paul-Pierre make an impact this year?

KC Joyner
  (4:41 PM)

Greetings to you as well! The Giants should have an improved pass defense and, as stated a couple of questions ago, they have tons of offensive talent. If they can get their pass rush to perform anywhere near like it did when Spagnuolo was their coach, I could see them winning the NFC East.

Kate (The U)

Do you think last year was a fluke year for Cedric Benson or do you think he could maintain the numbers he had last season? ...This is all assuming that he would even play this year of course!!!

KC Joyner
  (4:43 PM)

It wasn't a fluke. Benson simply kept up the pace he was on late the previous season. Marvin Lewis did his due diligence before signing Benson and once he got the word that Benson had turned things around, he gave him a well deserved second chance.

BSB (Philly)

Bob Probert would have taken Brock Lesnar apart. True tough guy.

KC Joyner
  (4:45 PM)

As a long time Red Wings fan, I'd have to concur at some level but Probert wasn't anywhere near as big as Lesnar. To put it another way, I think he had the toughness to last an entire match with Lesnar without getting knocked out, but I have trouble seeing him beating down the monster that is Lesnar.

Jimmy N (DC)

I would be remiss if I did not say "ALL HAIL SAGE ROSENFELS". Now that thats out of the way, what do you think of MJ Drew this year? Still have something left in the tank?

KC Joyner
  (4:46 PM)

There's another quality backup QB that didn't come to mind earlier! Regarding MJD, I was quite shocked when I ran his good blocking YPA numbers for my draft guide (which, incidentally, will be out next week and is available for a special pre-order price at www.thefootballscientist.com). I figured he would be well above the six-yard mark that signifies excellence but that wasn't the case.

Eric (Chicago)

Alright then Scientist, which of the 3 would you rather take for $1million...a punch to the face from Tyson, tackling Jerome Bettis as he's trying to get to the buffet, um end zone or fighting Probert on the ice? I'm going with tackling Bettis because all I have to do is say I'm a safety and he'll go down easy. You?

KC Joyner
  (4:48 PM)

I'll take the one that doesn't involved getting punched. Bettis would run me over in no time but at least it wouldn't involve getting hit in the face!

Gorman (Baltimore, MD)

Whats with that Jimmy N guy and Sage Rosenfels every week? Geez. KCJ- do you have a staff or do you work alone? How do you get all your game film?

KC Joyner
  (4:49 PM)

Sage obviously has a fan club, even if it may consist of only one person (or two, as I am on his bandwagon somewhat). I work alone and use TV game footage.

Ted (Madison)

Clay Matthews more than 10 sacks this year?

KC Joyner
  (4:49 PM)

I'd take the over on that.

lowk (IA)

How do you see big bruce campbell playing right guard for oakland. Do you think he can start and be any good this year.

KC Joyner
  (4:50 PM)

If memory serves me correct, Campbell graded out well in the Draft Lab I did on him. His pass blocking was quite good and his run blocking was superb. I could see him having success at any O line position.

Chris (St. Paul, MN)

Afternoon, KC! What does your ideal 3-4 nose tackle bring to the table, who's currently the gold standard and why? Thank you!

KC Joyner
  (4:52 PM)

The ability to not only draw a double team block, but to also beat it. The best NTs will only win POA blocks around 15% of the time but that is often enough to make an offense have to consistently dedicate two blockers to them. When healthy, Kris Jenkins is the gold standard right now.

Brock (Green Bay)

Who are you pre-season picks for Offensive and Defensive POYs? Im thinking Eric Berry and Golden Tate

KC Joyner
  (4:53 PM)

I could concur with both of those. Tate ran the route tree quite well at ND and it is said that he will be used quite heavily this year.

Brennan (Mich)

Do you think Suh will boost the lions defence?

KC Joyner
  (4:54 PM)

Big time. He doesn't strike me as one of those players who gets the money and then disappears. He's a full effort guy and that means he will have a positive domino effect on a defense that badly needs players like that.

Mark (NJ)

Do you think Romo is overrated?

KC Joyner
  (4:55 PM)

His metrics have improved to the level that he's not overrated stat-wise. I don't think he can be considered among the best in the league until he has more playoff success, however. Peyton didn't get his due until that happened and Romo should have to live under those same rules.

James Brown

Hunh!!! Good God!! Does Kurt Warner make it to the HOF?

KC Joyner
  (4:57 PM)

He should. Make it to three Super Bowls, post the types of numbers he did and win MVP awards - what more would voters want from a candidate?

lowk (IA)

I think Lamarr Houston is going to be a beast on oaklands D Line did you test him in the Lab

KC Joyner
  (4:59 PM)

He didn't make it to the lab but I'm with you on Oakland. They played quite well late last year and have much more talent on their roster than they are given credit for. If Cable is connecting with his team like it looked like he was last year, and if Campbell moves their offense up a couple of notches (something he is absolutely capable of), the Raiders should be considered an 8-8 candidate at the least.

Brennan (Mi)

Wow the lions got dre bly back i wonder how that would work out

KC Joyner
  (5:00 PM)

Let's just hope he doesn't try to celebrate early on another interception return this year. That was one of the worst plays of the 2009 season.

TJ (IA)

Top five pass blocking OTs...J.Thomas, J.Long, Clady, D'Brick, and Gaither?

KC Joyner
  (5:02 PM)

I could see that as a good top five, although I'm not totally sold on Ferguson as a great pass blocking LT. Well, the hour has flown by as usual because of some really great questions. Before I go, I should mention my Twitter feed, which is kcjoynertfs. I should also note that I am in the last stages of completing the TFS 2010 Draft Guide. You can find out more about it and order it at a special pre-order price at www.thefootballscientist.com. Hope to see you all here next week!