That time of year again. Looking like it could be another crazy season. Let's get into it!
if oklahoma wins out, with missouri, ok state, and big 12 title game still on their schedule, how do they possibly get jumped?
OU will probably be the top team in the nation in the computers if it wins out, unless LSU also goes undefeated. Either way, the computer numbers will be plenty good enough for a top-2 BCS finish. But the polls are two-thirds of the BCS equation, and Oklahoma must look impressive enough that voters aren't tempted to move an undefeated SEC team in front of them. That's the one scenario by which I can see an unbeaten OU team out of the top two.
Assuming TCU and Utah are both undefeated heading into their game in SLC, does a convincing win by TCU help them pass Boise St. in the rankings? The computers already favor TCU over Boise, but I guess the real question is if a big win over a top 10 team can convince the coaches/harris poll voters.
If TCU runs the table, I think it should have a solid lead on Boise in the computers. I'm not sure, however, that the voters will drop BSU behind TCU in the polls, as long as the Broncos keep winning every game by 40+ points. Of course, if the gap in the computers is big enough, it might not matter.
How big of a blow was it for Boise St. in that Nevada won't be undefeated heading into their match up in Novemeber?
It was a bad day for Boise State on Saturday, not only did Nevada's loss eliminate the possibility for a high-profile November game (which TCU is likely to have against Utah), but the loss by Oregon State cause Boise (and TCU) to take a slide in the computers. You need all the help you can get when you play a WAC schedule, and the Broncos didn't get much help on Saturday.
What teams do you think can control their destiny into the title game?
I honestly don't think any team controls its destiny right now. As long as there are several major undefeated teams, I can see any of them getting leaped in the polls by putting together a couple of squeakers against middle-of-the-pack conference competition. Style points definitely matter right now! That said, the team in the best spot is Oregon, because the Ducks have most of the first-place votes in the polls and will move up in the computers by default, since some teams ahead of them in the computers still play each other. I like Oregon's position best, but I sure don't think UO controls its destiny.
Is there really any chance of Michigan State making it into the NCG?
I think it depends on how crazy things get. Because of not playing Ohio State, I can't see MSU finishing ahead of an unbeaten champ from the Big 12, Pac-10 or SEC, and I think it would be interesting to see how they'd stack up with undefeated Boise State and TCU/Utah. But that's really in the hands of the voters, and MSU can help itself by looking impressive each week.
A week ago you suggested Boise State would be # 1 in the initial BCS rankings. What happened? Love your work!
For the record, I never predicted Boise State (or anyone else) would be No. 1 this week. I only stated that Boise State would've been No. 1 if the BCS had been out last week. Unfortunately, some people don't understand the difference between the two and assumed my mock standings were a projection. Anyway, Boise would've been second this week if Oregon State hadn't lost in double-OT at Washington. And, as strange as this sounds, Boise would've had a better chance to be No. 1 in the BCS this week if Ohio State hadn't lost. Big picture, however, the Broncos needed the Buckeyes to lose, so they sure aren't complaining.
What surprised you the most about the first BCS rankings?
I wouldn't say it surprised me on Sunday, but if you had told me a week or two earlier that a team not ranked in the top two of either poll could be No. 1 in the BCS Standings at this stage of the season, I would've said you were crazy. It's really unlikely for the top two teams in both polls to be ranked so low by the computers.
If the 6 computer polls use similar criteria why would a 6-0 Missouri be unranked in the Billingsly poll but be in the top 10 in all the other computer polls with 3 of the polls having Mizzou in the top 5 ?
I'm going to talk to Billingsley about it later today, but if I remember correctly from the last time he and I discussed his formula, one of the things it does is look at the last 10 or so games. In other words, Mizzou is being penalized right now for not being very good at the end of last year, and I'm sure this season's schedule plays into it, as well. Don't worry, though. By the time this season's rankings matter, Missouri will be judged only on what it's done in 2010.
If Auburn, Oregon, and Oklahoma win out, does AU get the short end once again? I'm feeling deja vu again.
It's possible, although I'd think some voters would move Auburn up because of what happened in 2004. I'm not saying they should be making decisions based on that, but I'd be surprised if some don't. Ultimately, I think the top two teams in this scenario will be the two that look the best in the final five weeks of the season.
Sorry for the short chat today, but I have to make this the final question due to time constraints.
Any way Ohio State can get back into the BCS top 2 by season's end?
I don't like OSU's chances as much as Alabama's because of the remaining schedules for both teams, meaning that Alabama has more big games, but that also means OSU has a better chance of winning out. Crazy things happen in college football. OSU figured to be done after losing to Illinois in November of 2007 and ended up as th No. 1 team by the end of the regular season.
Thanks, everyone. Same time next week.