Sorry, some confusion here over whether I was chatting today.
Keith, why would a theoretically intelligent front office like Boston's be serious lookers at Buck? Isn't he a disaster waiting to happen, shouldn't they know that?
Driving up the price for others? He did one thing well in 2010, and I think that's a function of a very fortunate schedule. Not the type of guy they typically go for.
Klaw, should the trade for De Jasus tell us that Billy Beane doesn?t think Carter can handle left and that Michael Taylor is a year away or even a bust?
Carter can't handle left. Taylor being a bust is way too big of a conclusion to draw. Why the rush to label him (or anyone who's had one bad year) a bust? No prospect ever had a bad year and recovered?
Freddie Freeman, Eric Hosmer or Brandon Belt?
Feel like I might have answered this last week, but I'd go Hosmer, Belt, Freeman.
What's Mazzaro's ceiling? No. 3 starter?
Below that. What's the out pitch? Why would we argue he'll improve his command or control?
Jeter is the top defensive SS in the AL. The GG award says so.
More reliable measure of greatness: Gold Gloves or Emmy Awards?
One has to think White Sox GM, Kenny Williams, is going to make a splash one way or another in the off-season. There have already been some rumors of his targets. What do you think is the most likely? Trade for Rasmus? Fielder? Sign Dunn? Crawford?
I saw Rafael Soriano's name this morning (via Rosenthal?). Because, you know, when your farm system is near the bottom of the rankings, it's a great idea to give up a first-round pick for a 65-inning reliever who gets hurt a lot.
The latest reports have indicated that Cashman told Posada that he will be spending a lot of time at DH. Has Montero's defense improved enough if he was behind the dish 3-4 times per week? Would you worry about the pressure on a guy that young to handle the pitching staff, or is that notion overrated?
I understand why they're doing that, or saying they'll do that, but I still do not see Montero as an everyday catcher, both due to receiving/mobility issues and the injury risk that comes with someone that huge playing a position that is injury-prone no matter the body type.
so jeter is the 2 and half men of the american league
I'd say "yes" but I'm proud to say that I've never seen so much as 30 seconds of that show.
I love how delusional some fans and sports writers can be. In the Rumors section a writer from Atlanta is quoted as saying they would be wise to trade for Rasmus but only if they don't have to include an elite prospect like Freeman. What exactly ARE they going to get him for? A bag of used gloves and two cases of big league chew?
Even worse - Freeman's not an elite prospect, and what exactly would St. Louis do with him?
Was the Olivo trade a terrible mistake on the Rockies' part due to the loss of a potential compensation pick, or is Olivo planning on accepting arbitration and the Rockies knew this? Also, do you see this sort of trade - arbitration eligible players who yield picks - becoming a trend? Thanks.
Given Olivo's comments at that time, I think he would have accepted, and clearly the Rockies didn't want that. They need to play Iannetta every day.
Between Mark Rogers and Jeremy Jeffress who has the better odds of being an effective starter?
Neither? Jeffress if you're forcing me to pick one.
seems a popular opinion that montero's destiny is a trade chip. who's avaiilable with ability/contract that would make them worth it? is it silly to wish the yanks had pushed harder for haren? don't see many opps on the horizon.
This makes no sense to me. Why can't he be the DH? I understand that you lose value when you move him from C to DH, but if he's not likely to be a C long-term anyway, just get him to DH, give him 600 PA next year, and enjoy.
This deal is kind of ridiculous but how about Daryl Jones, Lance Lynn, Bryan Anderson, Colby Rasmus and Kyle Lohse for Greinke? I know that is mostly quantity but Rasmus is a star and Anderson has potential, Lynn could slot in as their 3-4 starter immediately. What do you think?
That's just Rasmus for Greinke. I think the Royals can do better.
"Jeter 6 Es, .989 fielding percentage, best in the leagues combined," a friend replied on Facebook. Do I have your permission to be over-the-top condescending?
Put the smack down.
Jerry Sands or Trayvon Robinson? Who's likelier to see time in 2011?
Robinson. And Robinson.
Rolen over Zimmerman is pretty bad too, right?
It's a matter of degree, but I would have taken Zimmerman. How about Dunn throwing Zimm under the bus by talking (to John Fay) about the "bruises" he received from bad throws? Really, Adam? My daughter owns all three Tinker Bell DVDs, and they named the two male tinker fairies after your fielding skills: Clank and Bobble.
Who annoys you more of the rumored coupling of Giada de Laurentis and John Mayer?
It would be great of them to pair off so I can ignore two people with half the effort.
Do you believe, as others do, that Utley, Rollins, & Howard are on the downside? I don't believe 30-34 is old.
You can't just lump those three guys together as if they're all cut from the same cloth. Howard is clearly on the downside and his body type and skill set is one that doesn't age well. Rollins and Utley are athletic enough to remain productive longer, but both are having problems staying healthy, a completely different reason why some players decline early.
How good am I?
A top 10 prospect even with the remaining questions about your position.
Alonso is being blocked by Votto and has no future with the Reds. What can the Reds expect in return for him? What would they get if they packaged one of their extra pitchers since they have 7 legit 2 or 3 starters and a couple more that would not be bad at the back end of the rotation.
Best solution for Alonso is to play him every day in AAA to start 2011 and hope his wrist is healthy enough that his output improves. It's still a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately business in a lot of ways.
Admit it- you had the Tinkerbell DVD joke squared up, just looking for the answer to use it
I nearly used it when I saw Fay's tweet yesterday, but couldn't pull it off in 140 and figured I'd save it for the chat. Of course, in the interim I think my daughter watched the 3rd movie five more times anyway.
Projection for Lavarnway?
Not a catcher. Where do you put him? Bat doesn't seem like it'll play at DH.
Do you have an opinion on Japanese Prospect Tsuyoshi Nishioka? How much will he cost a team, and have you heard any interest from the San Francisco Giants? Maybe to push Sandoval a little bit!
I've only seen what you've seen (e.g., WBC from '06). Don't like that style of swing unless a player is a plus or better runner, but he's not. Sounds like he probably moves to 2b over here. Some scouts think he'll continue to hit for average, some don't. I'm more in the latter camp, and without power or plus speed he'll have to maintain that high walk rate to be an everyday guy.
You clearly have too much Tinkerbelll knowledge... but at least you are comfortable with yourself... ;-)
When you have a four year old daughter you'd be surprised how much your cultural reference points change.
Masterson.... starter with upside or reliever?
A report out of Philly has a possible McCutchen/Dom Brown swap. Pretty good deal?
What is Amaro's plan for pulling that off? Slip Neal Huntington a mickey at the Swan and Dolphin next week?
Alex White and Drew Pomeranz...could either finally be an Indians prospect who will project better than a 4th starter?
Pomeranz > White, and much more likely to be a starter.
Klaw - You should re-name your Top 50 Free Agent Piece: "Why teams should focus on improving via the draft." Seriously, outside of Lee and Crawford, and possibly one or two others, there are no other real impact FAs. Useful pieces, yes; building blocks? Um, NO.
I couldn't agree more. Part of why I agreed to the switch to shorter capsules after the top 30 with these buyers' guides for the following week was that by the time I got to number 22 or so I wanted to stick my head in the oven.
Montgomery, Lamb, Dwyer, Duffy....all No. 2 starters or is there ace potential there?
Montgomery seems the most likely ace if he stays healthy.
Regarding Greinke, Moore's demands are kind of ridiculous, right? A young starter who can become Greinke in a couple years plus three more top of the line prospects. I mean, that's nuts. There can't be more than two or three systems that could even offer that, and then Greinke has to sign off on going there.
Why not start there? Two years of cheap control of a guy who won the Cy Young (and deserved it!) twelve months ago. Aim high and see what the market offers. He holds a unique property and there's no law saying he should only demand fair value. Let someone overpay.
Klaw,Do you expect much movement at the winter meetings this year?
We usually have one significant trade per day, plus a few random signings.
I saw your comment on the McCutchen/Brown. Why wouldn't Pitt do that if Philly added a pitching prospect (Cosart, May, or Colvin)? It's not that Pitt will be able to afford McCutchen in a couple years.
Who's to say they can't afford McCutchen "in a couple years?" When will he really be too expensive for them - 2015? Come on.
With Lincecum having such a violent delivery, should the Giants trade him NOW while value is highest and their pitching is deep? OR would their be riots in the SF streets?
I know, that violent delivery that it's caused Lincecum to spend so much time on the DL ... oh, wait, he's never been hurt. What the hell are you talking about?
KC Farm System...hands down number 1?
Yeah - who could even pose an argument? Maybe Tampa Bay?
Why are u so hesitant to answer questions about J.P going to the Mets?
Because I wrote in last week's chat that I would have no comment on it. If u can't reed its not my problem
I just finished re-reading the Harry Potter series in preparation for HP7 part 1. In this post HP haze, I need something new that'll keep my attention & isn't too heavy. Already read The Magicians. Suggestions?
Jonathan Strange & Mr. Norrell is the same genre, if you can handle its length.
Any thoughts on Niehaus? Listening to the Marniers will not be the same.
I don't think I ever heard him, and I never met him, so any thoughts would perforce be insincere. Many people whose opinions I respect are eulogizing him as an announcer as a person.
You mentioned at one point that Norris was the Nats catch of the future. What is Ramos? Is Norris not a potential trade chip for a frontline starter this offseason?
I believe in Norris more than I believe in Ramos.
In addition to Span, what would MN have to give up to get Uggla? I'd rather have Revere/Uggla than Span/Casilla. And with Cuddeyer's contract coming off next year, they should be able to afford him. Not that they would do it, he's doesn't play the "Twins' way".
The problem I see there is that Florida values power arms, and other than maybe Gutierrez (non-traditional power) I don't see the Twins having that kind of prospect. They draft plus-command college guys, even if they're small or have just average fastballs; the Marlins' scouting director, Stan Meek, goes for power arms and buys by the pound, and that philosophy seems to permeate the entire organization.
How do you feel about the Angels minor leaguer, Jean Segura
Like him quite a bit - not much power there but has a chance to hit for high averages, can run, has the tools to be a plus glove at 2b (but isn't there yet).
Hi Keith, What is your take on Charlie Blackmon? Does he crack the Rockies Top 5 prospects?
Tools not translating into performance, or even good at bats and hard contact, enough to make him a top 5 guy. Want to like him but at some point the tools have to play.
I didn't realize that Olivo indicated that he was likely to accept arb with Colorado. Doesn't that make it seem like he'd likely accept in Toronto as well?
He wanted to stay with the Rockies - at least that's how I interpreted the quotes.
How about DePo going to the Mets? I always thought he got a raw deal with the Dodgers.
I thought he did too, but the one thing he struggled with was managing the media, and in San Diego and now in NY he's not the first guy in front of the mike. (I think he'd be much better today in that regard, having learned from the experience.) He also had three or four guys in his organization stabbing him in the back in LA, which he doesn't have to worry about so much in NY. I think a lot of what went right in SD the last few years was to his credit, and I was impressed by how often he was out seeing amateur players the last couple of springs - it wasn't strictly part of his job description. So ... yeah, you could say I like that hire.
Should I be nervous about being portrayed in "Moneyball" or by being played by Royce Clayton? Also, where do I end-up next season?
I heard Clayton just ordered a year's supply of vitamin B-12 to prepare..
Your Buyer's Guide for catchers said John Buck had decent stats last year, and then cited RBI. Is this a case of something being added by someone else after you filed it?
Yes. I'd never quote RBI to demonstrate anything at all.
Is there any reason why some trick plays aren't tried more often? For instance, faking an intentional walk call and firing it down the middle to try to catch a guy off balance?
Well, the more you use it, the less effective it becomes.
Seeing as Werth is as good as gone, what's the solution in Philadelphia if Raul Ibanez moves past his current state of "cratering" and into "creating a megacaldera"?
Depends on their willingness to accept that cost as sunk. It wouldn't hurt them to at the very least acquire a lefty-masher to caddy for him, but I think he's best cast as a bench bat for '11 if they want to maximize their chances to get to the playoffs again.
Klaw, any advice for young college grads looking to break into baseball opps?
Yes. Have a backup plan. It seems like the supply of candidates is soaring while the number of jobs is stable.
Simon Castro > or < Latos in 2012
Latos, and not even close.
Klaw, I was watching a scouting video of you and Jason Gray the other day. Are you really short, or is Gray really big? He towered over you.
I'm 5'6". Jason is 7'9".
Just logged in, but glad to see you're also on the anti- Two and a Half Men bandwagon. I don't understand the accolades AT ALL. Easily one of the most boring shows on TV. How I Met Your Mother is underrated, IMO.
Made it through 1.5 episodes of HIMYM. Not my record, though - I got to 0:09 of one Bored to Death episode and gave up.
Ever use a pressure cooker? Best meal you've cooked in one?Also, do you think the Rockies could pry Billy Butler from the Royals with Gomez, Friedrich and Brothers?
Feels a little like second-tier guys ... Friedrich didn't have a great year and had elbow soreness in April; Brothers is almost certainly just a pen guy - Jason has seen him more than I have and the velocity has been very up and down; and while I like Gomez' tools a ton, he's played just 111 games in the last three years and drew only 19 UIBB. I do own a pressure cooker and use it often, especially for meats that would otherwise require longer braises like pork shoulder or short ribs.
re: Lincecum's violent delivery, I think Tony was referring to McCarver's WS pitcher analysis. He also kept listing Sanchez's small hands as to why he has trouble throwing offspeed...
You know what it means when a guy has small hands, right? NOTHING.
Whats up with the A's making all these moves?
Yeah, how dare they.
Are you enjoying Boardwalk Empire?
So far, yes. A little uneven, maybe not up to the high expectations I set for it.
Travis Snider still a stud in your mind? What can we expect from him?
Yes, impact guy, power and patience providing value even when he's only hitting .250.
As an Astro fan, can I still be excited about Brett Wallace's future?
I'd be more concerned that they'll play Carcass Lee at first and bury Wallace or trade him (that would be, what, five times in 20 months?) for a middle reliever.
I know in the past you said you didn't like writers like Dan Brown but do you ever read guys like James Patterson or Dean Koontz?
I keep seeing Thomas Neal listed as one of the Giants top prospects, but after watching him in Richmond I don't think he projects much past a 4th OF. What are your thoughts?
I'm with you.
Are the Giants going to sign any FA's outside of the ones they currently have? Who do you think it will be?
I don't know if the rumors of their interest in Crawford are real or wishful thinking, but I love that fit.
Forget salary caps, do you think MLB should institute salary floors?
No. Why force bad teams to spend more money on crappy veterans when the right move for the long term is to play rookies so they can continue to develop.
More likely to be at 1st for the Rangers next year, Davis or Moreland?
If you had an MVP vote, what statistic(s) would be the most important for you to consider when choosing?
I'd look at total-value measurements like WAR, but with the caveat that the accuracy of the defensive components is not as high as that of the offensive ones.
Thoughts on the Stieg Larsson trilogy? Have you read? Predictions on where Cliff Lee ends up?
I've only read part one (review: http://bit.ly/14Q5vu), was not blown away. I still say NY most likely, Texas second, not that you really needed me to say that.
In a perfect world, a perfect franchise wants to hire you as either Scouting Director or GM. Which job would you choose?
GM. Greater authority and autonomy, much higher salary. More stress, more responsibility, but I'll take that tradeoff.
Do you watch baseball in your free time? By that I mean if you were at home on a random week night in July would you put on a game or would you be tempted to do something else?
If I'm home alone I'd probably flip on a baseball game. If my family's here, I'll spend time with them.
I see your not that high on Freeman which is fine. I have asked around and cant get a answer on what type of major leaguer he will be. Who does FF best compare to? thanks
I've heard Lyle Overbay, but that's a bit unfair to Freeman (as all comparisons are unfair to one of the players) because you might think of Overbay post-wrist-injury. Good OBP, doubles power, solid defense, nothing spectacular. Nice player, not elite.
Should the Yankees trade Gardner for Butler?
You imply that KC has no say in the matter. #chatquestionsfromthe1950s ?
Knocking Derek Jeter... Typical Liberal Media
Why, is he in the Tea Party?
I'm going to New Orleans, and I need restaurant recommendations from the almighty Klaw!!!!
I'm such a tourist down there - I go to Acme Oyster House, Remoulade, CDM, Pascal's Manale ... Never done Commander's Palace or Galatoire's. Mostly I just want real gumbo and a shrimp po'boy and I'm happy.
Poz just posted another work of art during your chat. Have you ever met him? Is he as genuinely wonderful as he seems?
Many times. And yes.
Big things out of Mike Stanton this year?
Big things from him in 2010, no? I'd expect more of the same: Big power, good D, lot of Ks, decent OBP.
Judging by the show's growing emphasis on drama, I'm expecting the Just Dessert's finale to be decided by a fight that includes slapping and pulling hair. And why couldn't I see anything other than FAILBoat and Train Wreck memes looking at Zac's cake last night?
How about Zac's comments on Danielle "look[ing] like Marilyn Manson?" Wow. Sorry, Zac, your character just didn't measure up. Please take your binky and go.
Is Trout still in your top 3 prospects?
Trout is still in my top 1 prospects.
How would you rate the Twins CF prospects? Hicks, Revere, Benson. Who is the long term answer at CF?
Hicks is the potential superstar. Revere could play it defensively right now and help the team even if he just hit .260/.330/.350. Benson is the Twins' Blackmon.
Regarding your vote for NL MOY: how did you try to bake in statistical analysis or quantify "great" managing?
Not really - I don't know of a really reliable method for doing so. I talked to a number of FO guys I respect around the NL and every single one gave the same answer for the top spot.
What kind of stat line do you think we'll see out of Jon Jay next year?
That's the guy who hit .244/.309/.314 for the last two months, right? Yeah. If they give him a starting job in their OF, they'll be taking it back by the All-Star Break. Very solid fourth OF, not a starter.
Slash-stats, defense, position equal - would you rather have a 50 homer, no speed guy - or 30-30 guy?
De La Rosa isn't an "ace" right? I'm seeing folks projecting De La Rosa signing away from the Rockies. Would somebody pay him as their top starter? I have to think CO would match most (non-Yankee) contracts for him, assuming folks are expecting middle-of-the-rotation output.
He's not an ace, but I think he's the one guy on this market (among FA) who has a chance to be an ace if something clicks. You can dream on him a little, whereas everyone else is what he is.
Which is either a recipe for someone getting a huge bargain, or for de la Rosa spending the next four years with the "disappointment" tag on him.
I'm updating my amazon wishlist, and was poking around The Dish for game recs. I have Carcassonne and Dominion. Already have Settlers on the wishlist. Any other recs (particularly games that you've played since your last Top 10 last from last Nov)?
Stone Age & Small World. I am hoping to update that ranking next week.
Do you have a Kindle? Would you recommend that for a gift for the holidays or something else?
No. I like paper. There's no satisfaction in turning the final electron of a 600-page novel.
What do you think of Salvador Perez? Is he good enough to be a part of the decision regarding whether Myers stays behind the plate? Thanks.
No, he's not. But that decision should be about Myers, not about what else is around.
Kenny Williams listening to offers on Gordon Beckham...wh-wh-what? Why sell low? That being said, which team(s) should look into acquiring him if it's true?
That rumor felt very unlikely to me - all I've heard from CWS and people plugged in there is that they love him. And they should. Given how they stuck with him this year when he was struggling, I have to think that what I've heard is true.
Any favorite short stories? I'm reading Cheever for my Amer. Lit survey and I really love that era.
Fitzgerald for classics. Lahiri for contemporary. I am far, far from an expert in that genre, though. I think I've read maybe 20 collections.
For Kyle in Minneapolis, Mother's is a tourist spot and the line is usually out the door, but the po boys are well worth it.
I'll have to check that out next time Tulane or UNO has a prospect.
Just double-checking to see if you noticed "slash-stats equal" in Ron (Boston)'s question. Is there really much of a difference in value?
Thanks, I didn't notice it. That's an interesting question, then, and the issue isn't so much the speed but the tradeoffs - the guy with 30 HR has more doubles/triples and perhaps fewer walks?
Best po'boys in New Orleans is Domilise's (locals are cursing me now)
Why is Trout ranked ahead of Wil Myers? Both were drafted out of HS in 2009 and Myers put up better a stat line in A+ (in a tougher park, form my understanding).
Among other things, Trout is 8 months younger, is an 80 runner, and projects as a plus defender up the middle, while Myers seems somewhat likely to end up in an outfield corner.
Any prospects in the Pacific Northwest that you will be coming to see this spring?
Churchill will see most of the guys up there. Oregon comes down here to ASU, so I'll see them then. If Dylan Davis or Blake Snell looks like a definite first-rounder, I'll head up there.
What's the story with the teenage CF the A's signed, Vicmal de la Cruz? Granted he's damned young, but is he a prospect worth following?
Plus speed, plus arm, undersized and not much projection, but can turn on a good fastball. I've never seen him, but that's what I've gathered from scouts who have.
Is there a reality show that you'd like to see that hasn't been done yet? Something with baseball perhaps?
Top Sportswriter. "Please pack your notepad and go ... back to your mother's basement!"
Kyle in MN: Go to Cochon. Amazing NO restaurant.
Then are all SLG percentages equal? Since HRs automatically score at least one run every single time, if two players have .450 SLG, but one has twice as many HRs to get that percentage, what does that say about relative value?
All SLG are not equal, because all bases are not equal. Reaching first base also means not making an out.
Would Holland, Profar, and Engle Beltre be a decent haul for the Royals for Greinke?
Not enough. Profar's so far away, Beltre's still pretty crude at the plate, and I think Holland's value is a little down at the moment. All good prospects, but I think the market offers more for ZG.
Any word on LaVon Washington this fall? More ways than one, have the Indians found their next Milton Bradley?
Makeup reports remain sketchy. And he still can't throw.
klaw,you mentioned "The Magician" last week. while I enjoyed the sly takes on the genre (Narnia, Potter, etc.), and the concept of magic school grads as the equivalent of trust fund babies, I found the passivity of his "hero" a bit off-putting. Your thoughts? (Or is this more a meadowparty conversation?)
Here, there, wherever. A reasonable criticism - you could view the protagonist as more observer than participant. You could say the same of Nick Jenkins, though, and that trick worked extremely well for Powell.
Thanks. Love your blog on music and books and games as much as your baseball work. My family actually plays Carcasonne (sp?), thanks to you.
You're welcome. Carcassonne is outstanding and gets bonus points for being so portable.
Banuelos or Zach Stewart?
Gotta run - thanks for the questions, I'll be back next week.