You can't overstate the value of this chat today.
KLaw, when would you suggest kids start throwing long toss?
Around 3 pm. Maybe 3:30.
As a Yankees fan, all I can say is please let Felix win the Cy today.
We'll know in an hour. It's far from assured given what we've seen this week.
Keith, I appreciate the chats and your candor on twitter. In regards to your idea of the Royals trading for Upton, do you think both sides would go for a Greinke for Upton and Parker plus B level prospect swap?
I think that's backwards. Greinke's under control for two years, Upton for five. I don't see Arizona throwing in two additional guys to even it out.
Klaw, you have any thoughts on who should play Nick Carraway? Anyone could do a better job than Tobey Maguire, right?
There's no way that film will measure up. Fitzgerald's greatness is in his prose. That's lost on the screen.
How does it feel to have single-handedly swung a BBWAA award?
I don't know. You should ask someone who's done it.
Do you see any big names being traded in the near future?
Yes, I see some names we won't name being traded in some indefinite period of time beginning now.
KLaw, your thoughts on Theo's buy low and hope for the best moves in acquiring Miller and Buchholz?
It's the right way to build a bullpen, even though there seems to be, on its face, a lot of failure risk. But the risk of failure is high with veteran relievers, so why spend money on them when your likelihood of success is almost as high when you cobble together a bunch of good arms who haven't figured it out yet. I'm not optimistic about any of these individual guys per se, but am optimistic about a group of five or six of them producing two decent relievers for 2011.
Are you always vague and sarcastic when answering questions?
Why don't you like Farquhar? Is it lack of command, lack of stuff or you just don't like sidearmers in general?
Lack of stuff, and what's the upside for a RH sidearmer? A RH specialist, that's what. Those guys are seldom worth much in their best seasons, and their runs of success tend to be short. Nice inventory guy but zero trade value if I'm on the other end of the deal.
Your answers are cracking me up today. Just like Matt Cain's response to a reporter asking how he was going to go to sleep tonight (after his big performance): "by closing my eyes."
That's a good trick. I should try it tonight.
Are the relief prospects acquired from the Davis trade any good? Was this a good haul for the A's?
They were going to non-tender Davis anyway, so even getting a fringe relief arm like Magnuson is a fine return. I'm not a big Davis fan anyway - 4th/5th OF type.
To verify, a parent requesting hundreds of thousand of dollars from a booster in order to receive his son's commitment is cool with the NCAA but hiring an advisor/lawyer to negotiate on your behalf is not?
It's all about each sport's revenue. Money talks in Indianapolis.
Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Wil Myser all this KC kids can crack your top 10 prospects list?
Hosmer yes. Myers has a chance. No way on Moustakas.
Do you think a guy like Jorge De la Rosa could be a sleeper this offsesaon? If he gets into a good situation (pitcher's park/good pitching coach), he could blossom into a dominant 1 or 2 type pitcher.
I agree ... but I think the fact that he's the only guy like that on the market may take him from sleeper to overpriced. I bet he gets four years, and as much as I like the arm, that's crazy talk.
nobody talks about Cahil for cy young it's not like the A's scored many runs for him
Hold on. Lack of run support is not the new criterion for Cy Young voting.
One of the things that I don't get about WAR is the team context. If I put together a team that every single player has a WAR of 0.0, do that means that that team will go 0-162?
The R is for replacement (player). A team of replacement-level players would win roughly 40 games, in theory.
Why do "anti-stats" folk refer to "the complex, new fangled saber stats" when complaining about smart people supporting Felix for the CY? I thought Ks, Innings, BA against were really old stats too.
I love how "complex" is some sort of put down. Quantum physics? Complex.
And don't you have to be on your second set of dentures to use "newfangled" in any non-ironic sense?
Hey Keith, how many wins do you think Felix Hernandez would've had pitching for the Yankees this year? More than CC?
Didn't Posnanski look at that on a start by start basis?
I know this isn't strictly your bag (you seem more the 'looking forward' than 'looking back' kind of guy), but shouldn't there be a place for Cark Stotz in Cooperstown?
Since I had to look him up, I'm the wrong person to ask. Neyer would be a better target.
Most Jays fan seem delusional about Adeiny Hechavarria, how can anything be expected from someone who hit 242/272/333 in 2010?
Well, it's his first year in the U.S., he's young, and he's pretty loose and athletic. That said, I think his fielding doesn't match his hype - Iglesias is a better glove right now - and I worry about guys with that much style and panache in everything they do. You don't get extra runs for artistic merit. Just throw the ball straight.
Dusty Baker lost by 1 point and you didn't have him on your ballot at all. I'm not saying he deserved to be on your ballot one way or the other, but even a third place vote gets him a tie. A second place vote wins it for him. You swung the vote for Black.
Except I wasn't the only writer to omit Baker. I actually asked Mike Leake to fill out my ballot for me but he couldn't lift his arm to pick up the pen.
Jason Smith talked about how he knew how you voted for the NL Cy Young because it was unanimous. You had an NL manager of the year vote this year, not an NL Cy Young vote, right?
With all the Justin Upton rumors floating around, what would they have to get back to get fair value? Do the Yankees have enough pieces, and if so, who would they have to include?
What I've heard is that Upton isn't THAT available - the price is enormous, and would require multiple major-league ready players. I guess I wouldn't be shocked if he was still here on Opening Day. Hard to see the Yanks putting that together - Montero plus Banuelos is a heck of a prospect package, but if the Diamondbacks want now talent the Yanks don't have an arm for them and Montero still has some small short-term performance risk.
Is Montero is an A+ bat, how high do you rate Romine's fielding ability?
Romine can't catch - as in, he struggles very badly to receive the ball. Plus arm, but I'm not sure how you get from where he is now to acceptable major-league receiver.
Is there any chance that Brandon Wood becomes a major league regular? If so, is it with a team other than the Angels?Were you pleased with the Top Chef Just Desserts results?
Highly unlikely. Seems to be zero shot for him in Anaheim. Can't hit the breaking ball ... I would give him a shot if I was GM of a bad NL team, but realistically I can't tell you I believe he'll pull it off.
Top Chef: Sure, seemed like one of the two best candidates won. But that final episode consisted mostly of clips of the three of them ripping each other, with very little focus on the cooking and virtually nothing from the three superstar chefs working as sous-chefs. Plus, how about the two runners-up killing the winner all episode ... and then praising him/her after the announcement? Skewed editing? Producers baiting them to insult each other? I don't get it.
Keith, what prospects made the largest jump this past year? Could we get one pitcher and one hitter from you?
Top of my head? Belt and Archer. But those may not be the ideal names.
Have you seen Kozma any in the AFL? It seems every year he is voted best defensive SS in his league by the managers but what about your view?
what awful team in 2010 has the best chance to turn things around in 2011?
There is no way you're in Uganda right now.
Klaw- i CANNOT beat my girlfriend at lost cities. i've now spent about an hour beginning to try to figure out if my 2-10 record is statistically significant. thanks.
You clearly just don't know how to win.
Keith, What is up with Yu Darvish, why does he not want to come to MLB in 2011? Talk about a perfect pitcher for the Yankees.
Unless I read it wrong, it sounds like he's coming for 2012.
Hi KLaw, The Yankees just got Scott Allen from the Diamondbacks for Juan Miranda. Quick thoughts? Thanks
If we went to compete with the yankees next yr should i open the pocketbook i mean we about to lose all of our power we need to get younger and with that shouldnt we go get prince fielder move youk to third and trade scutaro for some backend relievers
I am going out on a limb here, but I don't think that's actually Theo Epstein.
What do you think of Anthopolous's off-season moves so far? I don't understand the strategy.
I don't think you can evaluate a GM's offseason after two weeks any more than you could crown a World Series champion on May 1st.
What are your observations about Myers sticking at catcher? The bat is obviously ahead of the glove, but is sticking at C long-term a pipe dream?
It sounds like a conversion is already in progress, or at least on KC's minds. It is an unusual body type for a catcher, and given how he hit this year you have to start thinking about whether leaving him behind the plate robs you of offensive performance (fewer G and AB per year) and exposes him to too much injury risk.
i AM in uganda, eagerly awaiting the Felix decision (mariners fan). I am trying to catch a grasshopper as we speak...
I want a photo from Entebbe airport, then.
Yu Darvish is in the middle of a divorce in Japan. If he were to sign the largest contract of his career here in the USA before his divorce is finalized, his soon-to-be ex-wife would get a large portion of it. Pretty simple, really.
That's a good reason.
What kind of package would it take to get J. Upton to the Jays?
I would think that Towers would start with one of the major league arms - Marcum or Romero, most likely. If I'm Towers I aim high and ask for Snider too, plus two good prospects. Why not? You're trading an insanely valuable guy.
If he was anyone other than THE Derek Jeter, what would be the going rate of a .270/.340/.370 37-year-old subpar defensive shortstop? Minor league contract? One year at the minimum packed with incentives (in case he gets back to his 2009 performance level)?
If you're giving him the same history, but not the mystique and aura, then I think two years and $16-20 million total. Because there is a chance he gets back to 2009, or close, but the odds are under 50%.
Thoughts on the Westbrook signing? Would you give a full no-trade in exchange for a third year on a guy like that?
Love the deal. Perfect fit, not overpriced, good chance to stay healthy the next few years.
Why do some of the prospect gurus still select Casey Kelly over Manuel Banuelos?
Better fastball command, more athletic, still has some projection. I don't think there's a wrong answer between the two.
Can you clarify something for me? I've never watched a reality cooking show such as "Top Chef." How can a viewer decide who deserves to win? Isn't the whole point whose food tastes the best, most interesting, etc.? I really don't mean to play dumb here, but is sounds a little absurd to debate who is the most talented chef based upon watching them on tv. And please feel free to be sarcastic and dismissive in your response...
It's a reasonable question - but the viewer can evalaute presentation and creativity, and if you know your food you can at least imagine how certain flavor combinations would work. We're definitely at a disadvantage, and the editing of the judges' comments is maddening, but we're not at zero.
Whats Jerry Sands ceiling?
Can you please remind everyone that Bochy's magical month of Oct. doesn't mean he's the best manager in the world!
No, but he deserves credit for his role in taking a not-that-great roster to the title. And he outmanaged Washington eight ways to Sunday.
Matt Carpenter in the Cards system. What kind of big leaguer will he be?
Not a regular.
Are you down on Moustakas?
His first half looks like a ballpark-induced boost, not a real change in skill set. He still struggles vs LHP and I don't like his glove at 3b. He's a big leaguer, no doubt, but I don't think he's a star.
Is Upton still the can't miss, 5-tool player that he was labeled as coming out? Has his inconsistency diminished his value in your opinion?
He's at an age where most players are just getting out of the minors or college. I cut him a lot of slack.
Can we get a scouting report on the recently posted japanese middle infielder Nishioka? Is there a posting deadline, or is there still a chance guys like CF Aoki, and SS Nakajima could be next?
It's in my middle infielder buyers' guide from the other day.
Ok, I'm a longtime Yankee fan, that's out of the way, but even though Garcia had some incredible numbers let's remember he pitched in a no pressure place. CC must win the award based on win-loss, pressure everytime he took the mound, and his other numbers.
And Ron wins the chat. BTW, is "Garcia" suppposed to be Hernandez? Or did you use Garcia as a generic term for a Latino player?
KLaw, What is your stance on changing the mechanics of a successful based on assumptions certain things wont work in the majors. The Sox changed around Tyler Flowers approach in May and he ended up with a horrible season. I know you want to save a guy from failing, but doesn't the guy have to fail a bit before he buys into changing an approach that has been good for him at every level of his career?
I believe you don't change mechanics until there's an injury or performance failure. Some guys succeed with bad mechanics. And we don't really know what bad mechanics are, exactly.
Why are some people down on Justin Upton? He has the same OBP (.352) from age 19-22 as Jim Rice had for his career!
But he's not feared, Jonathan. That's all that matters. Some crazy old man told me that before he yelled at me to get off his lawn.
I am calling Tower's bluff. Why in the world would he trade a guy like Upton at 23 years old, with 5 years left on a very reasonable deal?
First of all, not his guy - didn't draft him, didn't sign him. Second, he might dislike the makeup, or question the health (or know something about his health we don't know). Third, he might figure that with Upton the team will stink in 2011, but he could flip Upton for two or more players who will help in 2011 and end up better in the short term. Or, fourth, he might be nuts.
Simple Question: Justin Upton or Matt Kemp? Who would you rather have?
Upton. By the way, I'm not entirely sure Upton couldn't play centerfield. He was moved out of it early because they had Chris Young. He's not physically unable to handle it - it's a question of reads and routes.
Isn't Towers just verbalizing what all GMs think about their players? "Sure, anyone is available if you want to vastly overpay for them."
Nothing wrong with that attitude. And he does like to trade.
I know it's a long shot, and probably wouldn't happen but would a deal around Dom Brown and Cosart come close to landing JUpton?
No, not close.
Have you ever read, "Dune"? And if so, did you enjoy it?
Really enjoyed the first one. Then I made the mistake of reading the sequels. That went downhill faster than Dale Murphy.
An age appropriate player hitting well in AA will usually hit in the majors. True or false?
Usually, yes. Always, no.
People theink Felix never pitched in high presure situautions? What would you call knowing if you gave up more than one run you will lose. What do you think?
I think that's much more pressure than pitching in a pennant race - especially when it's pretty clear you're headed for the postseason and you're mostly fighting for seeding. But either way, I don't like relying on context to evaluate performance. We now have better ways.
Tower's is playing the old bait and switch. You walk in thinking Upton you leave with a strike out machine 3rd baseman.
"Is Upton guts! Is same as Upton! You buy now?"
What is the upside on Chris Sale, middle of the rotation or closer?
Plus reliever. Could be a closer, could be a setup guy. Love that the White Sox got him right to the majors since I'm afraid his window is short.
Keith. I noticed earlier in the chat you didn't feel Moustakas would be a top 10 prospect. Is he that bad defensively?
Just to clarify - not top ten in all of baseball. He's top ten for KC, of course.
Klaw, can you recommend any nonfiction economics-related books for the lay person that wants to expand their knowledge base?
Common Sense Economics, Sowell's Basic Economics, and Economics in One Lesson.
Freakanomics and Superfreakanomics.
Absolutely. Loved both.
Keith- My friend thinks you are funnier than Bill Simmons. I respectfully disagree. What's your take on that?
I think your friend is smarter than you.
Eduardo Escobar, future major league shortstop or Arizona Fall League hype?
Might be more of a very good utility guy. I'm puzzled by the AFL hype - didn't dislike anything about him, but there's no star potential.
What is taken into account when voting for manager of the year awards? It seems that sometimes managers win the award because of their team, not how they managed the team.
There really are no clear criteria. I talked to NL execs whose opinions I respect and asked who they thought deserved it. The consensus was Black. No support for Baker, although I've articulated why I wouldn't have voted for him anyway.
How bout a little Klaw overtime today when the Cy Young is announced? I need me some Klaw insta-reaction!
I'm yours until the phone rings for my hit on the SVP show on ESPN Radio.
want to buy my wife a great non fiction book something contemporary. thanks.
Depends on her interests. Ballad of the Whiskey Robber was fun. Mauve was informative with a fair amount of history of science built in.
I saw that video of you and Jason Grey, and now I'm convinced your gay.
Would that be a problem for you?
What signing is more confusing: Benoit or Buck?
Buck. At least Benoit is coming off a tremendous (if short) year. Buck wasn't even that good.
Ray from LA is a loser!!!
As is anyone else who thinks "gay" is an insult.
Just keep that gay stuff to yourself.
I knew I shouldn't have planted one on Grey at the end of the clip.
KLaw: Please settle this ... "The Chronic" or "Enter the Wu-Tang: 36 Chambers"?
What's the baseball analogue to Greg Oden? Mike Hampton? Brien Taylor?
Huge (in spirit not size--i'm 5'5") A's fan here that is not at all jelous of the Giants. I still can't get behind dealing Mazzaro. Do I overrate Mazzaro-- assuming of course I rate him as a future number 2 guy??peace.out.werd.
I think you're overrating him.
Hey Keith! Heading to Florence, Italy for my honeymoon. Any Northern Italy restaurant suggestions for me??? Thanks in advance.
Il Gallo Nero in Siena. And L'Orso Bianco for gelato in Pisa.
So am I to take anything from the fact that the media are celebrating a guy that drowned dogs for his comeback but guys that took steroids(and hit homeruns) are still roundly ostracized?
It's a double standard - the NFL gets treated with kid gloves.
Has there ever been a "New Stat" that was eventually proven to be bunk? Seems to me that any sabrmetrist who comes up with an equation is consider to have found an infallible tool which is beyond question. To me it seems like Group Think is going wild
I think stats that were in vogue a few years ago have fallen down the ladder a bit. VORP would be one example.
Wow, Felix takes 3/4 of the first place votes. That surprises me.
Gotta run - radio time. Thanks for all the questions. Have a Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.