On College Baseball Live tonight (ESPNU, 7 pm EDT) I'll project the top 10 picks in this year's Rule 4 draft. So watch.
Since you dogged Geroge Springer's swing he's been outstanding. He's at .376-10-64, with 22 steals in 28 attempts. He has 24 walks against 28 ks. How bout some love? I believe you are incorrect in believing he will not be picked in the top 10. Thoughts?
You believe this based on what? Your sources? He's facing Big East pitching - not the sternest test going - and I have seen recent video that shows he's still collapsing his back side. He'll go high, top 20 at worst, maybe as high as the back of the top 10, but that's a legitimate mechanical concern and the performance only tells us it's not affecting him against pitching well below what he'll see in high-A next year.
What's your take on 1B C.J. Cron?
Can hit, and hit for power. No position currently and dealing with an injured shoulder. Could go sandwich round; late first would surprise me.
How high do you see Osich going? Late first? Supp Round?
Late first - have heard Texas at 33. Definitely supplemental round.
Who did you have going in the first round at the beginning of the spring that will now fall out of the first round of the draft?
I didn't project the first round before the spring - that would be insane - but I figured Purke and Jackie Bradley Jr would be first-rounders, but with both hurt that seems unlikely.
Can Nick Burdi sneak into the sandwich round?
No. I believe he missed some time this spring and have heard his velo was off.
What are your thoughts on Trevor Story and his potential injuries? Still 1st round or dropping to 2nd?
Trevor Story was never a first rounder. Good defender who can't hit.
Top Chef Masters: can we all agree that Curtis Stone and a few bloggers have zero credibility/personality when compared to Tom & Co.?
Agreed. The only reason I'm still watching is for recipes/ideas. Mary Sue's quinoa fritters were outstanding, as was Naomi's panzanella with shaved asparagus.
Keith, what's up with Scott Lyman? Was really glad to see a player from UC Davis in your initial top 50, but then he seems to have dropped off the list. What are his current draft prospects? Thanks!
He couldn't hold his preseason velocity, and the curveball hasn't been as sharp. I know some scouts who think this is partly because he plays the outfield regularly, but he'll be a guy for after the 3rd round after the mediocre spring.
I know he is not draft eligible, but what do you think of DJ Baxendale?
Not a prospect unless he adds some velo.
Was wondering if there was a college program or manager that you admired most as far as turning out high level prospects. Also, do you have any idea how many prospects, high school, college, out-of-country, & minors, that you are keeping tabs on?
Vanderbilt comes to mind. UNC's done a very nice job as well. Churchill and I keep a master list of names; it's just over 300 but I think only about 120-150 are active.
Any sense that G.Cole falls out of the top 3?
Possible. If the Pirates don't take him at 1 - I know Huntington has seen him more than once, but they're looking at other options including Rendon and Hultzen - I think Cole goes 5 to KC.
What are your thoughts on Daniel Vogelbach?
Big raw power, has lost some weight but there's a dispute on whether he's lost enough weight to be a top couple of rounds guy. If we're going on power alone he'd be a first or second rounder.
I understand worrying about a pitcher with any sort of arm injury, but what's the logic of dropping Bradley Jr. on draft boards if a team is confident the wrist injury won't linger? Indication (1) any lost development time is a major issue, (2) the gap between 1st round talent and 2nd round talent isn't that huge or (3) teams are short-sighted when drafting?
He also was terrible before he got hurt.
My house just got foreclosed.
Last 28 games - yes, completely arbitrary endpoint - 119 PA, .269/.328/.435. And it's worse over the last week or so. I'm not slagging the guy, but he's being buoyed by his crazy first week.
Fisher in the late first round. Too early?
I think so.
There is not enough Gale Simmons in my life right now. What am I to do?
Couldn't agree more. Although my wife pointed out last night that Gail is funnier when she's knocked back a drink or two. She should get that in her next contract.
Gold or Silver? long term
Are you high on Giants prospect Gary Brown? I know the cal-league is a hitters league, but he is just killing it right now!
I like him for what he is - plus run, plus glove, high contact, below-average power. Good player & a nice fit in SF. But a college player doing well in A-ball is doing what he's supposed to be doing.
Keith, love your work, appreciate your work ethic. Matusz, Britton, Arrieta, Tillman. In that order?
I give 110%. In that order, yes.
What is the ceiling for Cubs prospects Chris Carpenter and Jay Jackson? Elite reliever and fourth starter respectively?
Carpenter = elite reliever. Jackson was 85-87 when I saw him this spring and looked hurt. He's been bad since he got back, too.
Hello Klaw-Kirk Nieuwenhuis if off to a great start small sample understood though. Still just a good 4th OF'er, or is he looking more like a solid regular if he can handle CF?
Still just a good 4th OF.
KLaw, Is Harold Martinez from the University of Miami a guy that goes in the first five rounds and is he a legit prospect? Thanks in advance.
Miserable spring, hasn't hit well at all. Weather permitting I'll see him tomorrow, but he's not a top 100 guy right now, for me or for any scout I've talked to.
Any Div II guys high on draft boards?
Carter Capps at Mount Olive. 94-96 but secondary stuff is below average.
Klaw - great to see you chatting again. *man hug*
Watch those hands.
Performance enhancing stem cells now?
I'd like to know where the line is drawn - and who draws it - between performance enhancement and legitimate medical treatment. Do players have to get a referral from Dr. Selig before seeing a specialist?
On the scouts grading scale, is Harper's power an 80? In terms of potential, what other past prospects would you compare him to? J. Upton? Hamilton?
Yes, that's 80 raw. No clear comparison (although I'm not crazy about player comps anyway).
You are one of the last hold outs on believing that the Indians will contend deep into the season. I'm wondering if you are softening at all. I know Carrasco stunk up the joint last night. But Masterson and Carmona seem for real. And this White kid has real promise.
No, no change.
Man you are slow...do you type with your two index fingers? (waiting for the middle finger response) Love your work...
Elephant in the room: your predicted slash line for Hosmer this season?
I generally don't like doing this for rookies - I don't know of any way to predict how fast a player will adjust to major league pitching - but since I've been asked many times, I'll say .275/.350/.475.
Ken, we haven't even hit the quarter mark on the schedule. Do you know how many 40-game Standings leaders have ended up under .500 at season's end? I do, 187 since 1969 and that's a significant % too.
I didn't know that. That's good info.
Have you ever been to the real home of baseball - Pittsfield, MA. Look it up....The first known American reference to baseball appears in a 1791 Pittsfield, Massachusetts, town bylaw prohibiting the playing of the game near the town's new meeting house.
I've been there once. That was enough.
Keith what to make of Bryce Brentz? Struggled in short season last year and now is crushing it in Greenville. I know he is a little old for the level, but was this what was expected when he was drafted?
He's a lot old for the level. I had him very high on my board, but I don't think we know anything useful about him from his performance this year. He needs to move up at high-A at the very least.
Have you ever seen a non story like Albert Pujols hugging the Cubs GM get more pub in your life. I like when the media reports the news, not tries to create it. Your take?
Yes, it's ridiculous. But it's funny to joke about it, at least.
Keith, Slade Heathcott is off to a good start this season in Charleston. What is his ultimate upside and the likelihood he reaches it? Thanks.
He is off to a good start, but striking out a bit - at the time of the draft I had him as a great athlete but pretty crude. Upside is big, productive bat with power and plus defense, but he's got a long way to go to get there. Funny story about him - the Brewers wanted to take him and offered over slot, but he turned it down, probably figuring he had a shot at more from the Yankees. The Brewers took the overworked Eric Arnett, "fixed" his delivery, and now he's a non-prospect.
The biggest high school name around the CA central valley is JD Davis of Elk Grove. Does he have a chance to go on the first day? How high could he possibly go?
Third or fourth round if signable. Plus raw power, hit tool is a question.
Wow, Cole potentially slipping to KC at 5 eh? If so, could Starling make it to the Cubs at #9?
I think those two may be mutually exclusive.
What is wrong with Matzek? Another 7 walks last night. He's putting up Jason Neighborgall type numbers. Does he still make the top 10 Rockies list the way his season is going?
Has to be hurt. Another "fixed" delivery.
Do you agree or disagree with JoePo that steroids are mostly out of baseball, or do you just not care?
Agree, and yes, I don't care.
Jacob Turner dominating at AA, think the Tigers call him up this year to replace Penny?
I would never rule out Detroit calling up a young arm.
How did you manage the 4 day weekend only doing the podcast 3 times a week? At the pool on Monday and Friday?
That's what they asked me to do. I'm traveling Th-Fri this week and next so I'm on the podcast M-T-W.
Ranking Carlos Martinez just outside of your top 50 (when very few had him inside their top 100) took some guts, but after his latest outing do you expect everyone to jump on the bandwagon? The "Pedro" comparisons seem to be getting thrown around quite freely, and no one is calling it crazy. Keep up the good sarcasm.
Very high on him, obviously, but now we just wait and see what he does over the course of a season, facing lineups twice, trying to maintain his velocity, etc.
Who will be this years Hayden Simpson?
I'll predict that there won't be one. Last year we had surprise picks in the first round because the draft class was so weak. This year the class is deep and strong enough that we know most of the names and teams won't be as tempted to go rogue and just take a favorite guy.
BTW, Martinez is supposed to start the QC game May 26th at Busch. Great chance for Cards fans in the Lou to catch him.
Nice, that should get a good crowd.
Hey Keith, I'm about to begin a music therapy internship at a children's hospital and was wondering what sorts of music your daughter listens to/enjoys.
Right now it's mostly Disney music, Celtic Woman, and "Hey Soul Sister."
How soon should Bryce Harper be promoted? I know that he "needs" to learn how to be a pro, but he could do that at high A against better pitchers right? What is he gaining by destroying never-will-be pitchers for whom the best outcome of the at bat, is a good story for the grandkids?
I think he'll move up by the end of the month. It's too easy to overreact to a small sample when we're not seeing him every day. I doubt it, but there might still be developmental goals for Harper at that level.
So 187 40-game leaders out of 196 total 40-game leaders have ended up under .500? That doesn't seem right.
I checked nothing - feel free to try to verify (or blow up) what the earlier reader wrote.
I have 30 minutes left to bang out 2 more pages of BS regarding character development as it pertains to Faulkner's A Rose for Emily. Got anything good I can throw in here to take up some space that will look witty and well thought out? Thought about comparing her change spurred by tragedy to the change in the characters in No Country for Old Men. Good? Do you do homework? :-)
Sorry, never read it. Would be happy to help otherwise.
Huge fan of the Podcast when you are on it. I get a sense that you get slightly annoyed with Karabell (respectfully annoyed) and it really makes for an entertaining bit of uncomfortableness. Keep up the good work.
Nah, that's just a joke. Eric and I get along great, have for years. But we like to disagree.
Thoughts on the Machado injury?
He's just out a few weeks, right? So I think ... he'll be back in a few weeks.
For an elimination challenge, are the contestants on Top Chef Masters ever going to cook a dish of their own choosing in an actual legitimate kitchen? I'm semi-expecting the next Elimination Challenge to require the contestants to cook a 3 course meal while bungee jumping.
Between that and the annoying judges - I wonder if Traci des Jardins, a JBA winner, looks at that table and thinks "really? you're fit to judge my food?" - it's been hard to watch. We fast forward through a lot of the judges' comments, especially when Hipster Glasses guy is talking. (Speaking of which, two weeks ago, he was wearing a cheap Italian-restaurant tablecloth as a shirt. Someone should have served his food on his shoulder.)
I'm a little confused... I sent in many MLB questions, but for some reason you haven't answered any of them, is it because the questions are the right subject, or they're bad questions or what? Just wondering is all.
I've got just under 1000 questions already. I can't answer them all.
When Jackie Bradley Jr. negotiates his deal, will he insist that his signing bonus is a 100 Thousand Dollar Jackpot Wad?
I am home sick from work so I am finally able to see your chat live! (espn is blocked) Any thoughts on the O's at 4? I am really hoping Trevor Baeur is our man if he is there.
I believe he's in their mix, and don't see him going ahead of that.
What are your thoughts generally on this season of Top Chef Masters? I think it either needs to be young, hungrier chefs, or uber famous/top rung chefs. This in between cast of established but not super top level chefs isn't working for me.
Agreed. But if they're making the chefs run an obstacle course in shackles, they're not going to get the elite to participate.
Have you ever had your snarky side offend a player face to face? I can imagine your level of honesty isn't always well received.
No, but I'll talk to any player who wants to talk about my evaluation of him. You have to stand behind what you write in this job.
Does it frustrate you as a scout if the GM takes a guy over the guy you recommend?
Can't take it personally. Your job as an area scout is to rank them and write them up, but you're not making the final decisions.
Keith, what is a most likely outcome of the McCourt vs MLB situation? Does McCourt really believe he can hold on to the team?
I hear you're asking MLB to institute a no-fly zone over Chavez Ravine.
How much can scouts' evaluations of players change in the last month before the draft? Shouldn't their reports be pretty consistent by now? Sounds like reports on Rendon are always changing.
Aside from cold-weather kids, the last month is about confirmation, plus checking in on health and gathering medicals/signability/psych info.
Keith, you are presented with the MLB magic wand from Bud Selig. What change do you make? Level of difficulty: one wave only.
DH in both leagues.
Looks like no Bay Area visits for you this year? Perhaps next year when Deik is in the top pick mix?
Would have been there for a few days if the ESPNU show hadn't come up. I'll be able to catch Stanford in Arizona at some point next year.
OK, have to cut this short to finish that top 10 projection for tonight. Thanks for all the questions - make sure you watch at 7 pm!