Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
TFS, am I really going to the Giants and come back to haunt the 'Skins? And when is your 2011 guide going to be available?
Not sure there is much tread left on Portis' tires, but if anyone can get production out of him, it would be Shanahan. Regarding the TFS guid, it should be out in early July. Am going to post some pre-order prices on www.thefootballscientist.com shortly.
KC-I know it's very early, but would Az's 2012 1st round pick for Kolb be a fair deal? That pick could easily end up being in the 20's if Kolb has as much of an impact as expected. Also, how do you see him fitting in for Arizona?
Kolb is way too much of a risk taker for a Whisenhunt offense. If Reid couldn't get Kolb to fix that issue, it's hard to see how anyone could. Arizona should look elsewhere for an upgrade at QB (Denver and Orton being the best spot).
Is your 2011 Fantasy Draft Guide available yet, or should folks pick up my novel, Anarcho Grow, for summer reading till its release? It recently drew honorable mentions in three different competitions.
A reading suggestion until the TFS Draft Guide is released.
KC..Help me settle a feud..yes, its become a feud. What kind of metrics do you have on Chris Clemmons (FS) (MIA)? Thanks Is this a position the Fins need to address?
Knish, I did track safety figures for the entire league but don't have them right at my fingertips. Shoot me an email at firstname.lastname@example.org and I'll get an answer to the question.
Random I don't want to focus on work thought of the day: Tom Dempsey's foot. Did it help him or hurt him, distance wise?
Tex Schramm certainly seemed to think so but in the end he came around to the thought that a 63-yard FG is impressive no matter how one does it. The flat surface certainly had to help in some respects.
Do you think that Henne can be a good enough game manager to take the Dolphins to the Playoffs in 2011, and what is his ceiling for the future?
Henne's got to improve but give him a better running game and an actual vertical threat and he has a shot at being a very good QB.
K.C. what it do? Have the Colts adequately addressed their O-Line? Any chance Addai, The Duck and Delone Carter are all in the backfield (not at once, we're not hokey dokey Wildcat team) next season? Any scouting report you can offer on Carter?
Hard to say this early on but the initial thought is that they will be improved on the O line. They couldn't have done much worse run blocking than they did last year. Unless/until that improves, it won't matter who is in the Colts backfield.
RB-wise, of course.
Do you think the Jets get as far as they do the past two years with Henne behind Center instead of Sanchez?
In a word, yes.
KC, assuming Christian Ponder starts at or shortly after the beginning of the regular season (I assume there WILL be a season!), how will this impact Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin?
As long as Ponder will throw enough vertical passes and run the bootleg with some efficiency, the defense won't be able to clamp down more on Peterson than they did last year. Regarding Harvin, he's got ample RAC skills, which are the kinds of routes young QBs can work with, so he should be OK as well.
whats up KC, love the initials, what do you expect out of the chiefs this year. really excited about this offense
They have everything in place for a top flight offense except for vertical passing. Cassel has had issues in that area and the lack of quality WR help outside of Bowe isn't helping. Not sure they can get this fixed in 2011, so it might more of the same on that side of the ball for the Chiefs.
I am not an insider (shame on me I know) but was wondering the general reasons you think Henne is as good as Sanchez. I dont think the world of Sanchez but i think he has the ability to react as the play breaks down around him whereas Henne looks so robotic to me. Was this visually based or statistically so?
Sir, you should definitely become an Insider. It is well worth the roughly $3 and change per month cost. The article focused mostly on stats, as Henne's figures over the past two years have been just as good, and in some cases appreciably better, than Sanchez's.
Hey KC, do you think I'm the most underrated D-Lineman (maybe player) in the NFL. I played some of those games with pretty much no talent around me.
Williams is one of the best candidates for that kind of vote. Would have to add the Raiders Shaughnessy to that list as well.
I don't know if you've studied Miami's new OC Brian Daboll's offense, but do you think it is a good fit for Henne? Seems based on giving QB more options to throw to and opening things up
Opening things up playcalling-wise will certainly help. Having said that, the key for Miami could be in keeping the status quo in one area - medium passes. Henne topped the league in YPA in that metric last year. If they can keep that up and then add a bit of extra power on stretch vertical plays, Miami's offense could make the turn.
I love the Jets, but anyone who wasn't at the '09 Rose Bowl needs to have their eyes checked if they think the Sanchize is elite. He's Joe Flacco with a little more mobility.
That's the funny thing about the reaction to the Sanchez-Henne article. Jets fans seem to be coming out of the woodwork to defend Sanchez. That wasn't the case for most of the 2010 season.
what do you think the ceiling is for Sanchez and Henne?
As long as Sanchez has a top-five Rex Ryan defense on his side, a Super Bowl is a possibility. Henne could do the same if he was paired with equal on-field and playcalling/coaching talent.
Over/under week 5 on Tom Brady wearing a hair scrunchy on the sidelines?
Hey now, Mrs. Scientist thinks Tom Brady's haircut is attractive. She would not like a scrunchy, so I'll take the over on that one.
Well in Jets fans defense (and I'm not one of them), you didnt exactly compare him to Peyton Manning. You compared him to a guy who quite honestly looked like a stiff all year.
And yet that is what Sanchez looked like for a lot of 2010. The big reason for writing that article was Rex Ryan's comments about Sanchez. He takes the tack that Sanchez is going to be "extraordinary" and yet that isn't backed up by either the tape review or stats.
Whats with the dig on Flacco?? He is an elite QB! He has never had adequate vertical stretchers! Etc. Etc. (insert Raven excuse here)
Yeah, that Flacco knock seemed a bit unnecessary.
Can you see the Broncos pursuing Ronnie Brown or Pierre Thomas if they become expendable in their current locations?
Not sure they would want to pursue Brown. He posted a mediocre 5.3 good blocking YPA last year. That is quite low and wouldn't represent much (if any) upgrade over what they currently have.
KCJ- with the lockout looming one important question: you and mrs scientist been out anywhere good lately?
Not just yet, but with the kids finally out of school, the summer dinner plans should start picking up.
Did you see the Hangover 2 yet, KC?
Believe it or not, haven't even seen the first Hangover. Is it the type of movie Mrs. Scientist would like (and be honest here - she'll hold a grudge if I recommend a movie she doesn't like).
What is your SAGE prediction on the condition of the Skins' secondary? Otogwe has to help right?
He does, but the biggest issue they have to address is Hall. He went from a low 6 YPA to a 11+ YPA. If he can get back to the low 6 YPA range, that will do more than anything else to improve the Skins secondary.
It wasn't meant as a dig, but what are the metrics on Flacco? As a Jet fan stranded in the DC suburbs I am forced to watch a lot of Raven games, and I feel like all his "big plays" are dumpoffs to Ray Rice. He wins, and doesn't kill the team, but I think he's decidely average.
If memory serves correct, his overall YPA was at or near the top 10 level. He's held back by a lack of vertical threats (Boldin isn't a stretch the field WR).
I don't think many Jets fans view Sanchez as elite or extraordinary - even if Rex does. Ideally you want a great QB who's a great leader. Us Jets fans view Sanchez as a good QB who's a great leader.And I'd like to also take this opportunity to throw Shotty under the bus. Just because.
Throwing Shotty under the bus just because - you speak for many Jets fans, Steven!
KCJ, from a strictly fantasy prospect can you try and forecast the NE RB value?? It is impossible and I always get the wrong one.
The key to understanding the NE RB situation is to know that Belichick will a) go with the healthy guy and b) go with the guy whose skill set works best against that D. If the other team can't stop the pass, you won't want to go with any NE RB unless he can catch passes. Otherwise, try and keep an eye on who might be healthiest (admittedly tough duty when following a Belchick team) and go with that RB.
Umm KC, I believe you are ducking Craig's Flacco question. Flacco's YPA is skewed by all those dumpoffs to Ray Rice (almost always completed and occasionally for big gain). No more excuses for Flacco, you sound like Gorman.
Now we all know this wasn't truly Peter King weighing in here. Having said that, Flacco is being held back by a lack of vertical WRs. Playcalling can only go so far to offset a lack of talent in that area.
People with class and tact will NOT like the Hangover...I LOVED it! You can interpret that as far as Mrs. KCFS goes...
Thanks for the honest assessment. Might not be a movie for her.
As a fin follower, I'm a Sanchez hater. Metrics aside, that guy gets his team wins.
But is it Sanchez or the team? He does some things really well at times but oftentimes the team is scaling back the gameplan to keep him from self destructing (which is the main caveat as to why Schottenheimer shouldn't take as much grief as he typically takes).
Mike Vick- #1 overall fantasy pick, or let someone else roll the dice on him?
He's had trouble lasting through a full season and nearly got benched at the end of 2010. Hard to put that type of risk at the #1 spot of a fantasy draft.
He KCJ, its 5 oclock somewhere! (well almost). Grab a cold one after the chat. Anyways- better fantasy keeper: Dez Bryant as a 5th, or Matt Ryan as an 8th?
Hands down, Ryan. Julio Jones is going to do a ton towards moving the Falcons passing game into top flight territory. That will happen as early as this year, as his short pass skills will upgrade a very weak spot for Atlanta (see my article on this from a few weeks back for more detail).
Do you think Tebow can turn this offense around this season
Just ask this about Tebow - what if he isn't as good at utilizing Lloyd as Orton was last year. If that happens, it will offset whatever gains Tebow might make in other areas. Having said that, I will be watching The Daily Show tonight to see how Tebow does when going toe to toe with Jon Stewart.
The same was you downplay Sanchez's YPA on long passes for having vertical receivers you have to do the same for Henne on his Short passes having Bess and Marshall. You're article clearly had a bias. You really think Henne throws 5TDs in the postseason against NE and PIT? REALLY?!
Jay, Sanchez had Santonio Holmes for his short passes. Holmes led the league in short pass YPA a couple of years ago. He has every bit as good of short pass skills as Marshall.
KC, what teams do you think will struggle the most to win games in 2011? My picks are Washington, Carolina, and Buffalo. Your thoughts?
Hate to say it, but the Bills would be tops on that list. The AFC is quickly improving and the out of division schedule is very tough.
The Lions have alot of depth on their defensive line. Should they use some of that depth for trade bait or keep it and use it to wear offensive lines down with that rotation?
Bill Walsh used to say that the key to winning NFL games was a good pass rush in the 4th quarter. Detroit has the weapons to do that and should not trade them away for improvements elsewhere.
Terrelle Pryor = poor man's version of Tim Tebow = poor man's version of Cam Newton...agree?
Check out my article from last season on Pryor. It details how he did great against bad defenses and did very little against good defenses. Not the type of player a team will want to put behind center in the NFL.
Do you think Holmes or S. Moss would be good fits in Martz's system? Both seem like the quick speedy guys that would.
The key to a Martz receiver is to read defenses and be exactly where you are supposed to be when you are supposed to be there. Moss would seem to be the better of those two in those areas.
Ponder is a __% upgrade over Tarvaris Jackson?
Tough call, as Jackson had a lot of positives in his favor. For 2011, maybe 5-10% at best.
People saying "Really?" constantly is so over!
Imagine Rex Ryan going overboard with some of his comments.
Who would have thought that would happen?
Jets fans forget to consider that Sanchez had arguably the best roster around the QB position in the NFL the last two years. Henne? Not so much.
It's probably as much of a matter that Jets fans don't like to think of a hated division rival's QB being better than their QB. They wouldn't want to admit that the rest of the roster is largely responsible for Sanchez's W/L success.
Do you know of any LB's could potentially be on the market worth it for the Giants to take a look at?
It's hard to say simply because we don't know if there will be a 4 or 6 year requirement for FAs. If it is 4 years, the prospect pool is a lot larger and more talented than the 6 year pool.
Baseball has the Mendoza line, Football should have the Sanchez line. That said, you must be watching the games in standard def if you think Hennie is any good.
This could start a trend if Sanchez doesn't improve in the near future. As far as Henne not being any good, he's every bit as consistent as Sanchez.
Is this how journalism works? A writer joining in with fans to bash a teams' fans and head coach. Very professional.
Jay, the article idea started as a a response to Rex Ryan's over the top quotes about Sanchez. I've written plenty of pro-Jets articles over the past year (check out my ESPNNewYork blog archive from last year), so my professionalism here should not be in question.
Would Shaq have been a good O-lineman?
Maybe, but he's such an attacking force that putting him on the D line would have been more apt. Too Tall Jones would have nothing on Shaq.
are there any non-dolphin/jets fans in the chat today? what do you think a fair price for orton would be if zona persues him?
What would 3-4 years of solid QB play be worth? A low first round pick seems like a fair price.
What do you think happens, if Carolina ends up with the #1 pick again next year, do they roll the dice on Luck, trade the pick?
If Carolina ended up with the #1 pick last year, and Luck didn't suffer an injury or see a drop-off in play without Harbaugh, taking him
Jay, this is how discourse works? You take in none of the available information, jump to conclusions and question someone's professionalism? Very courteous.
I don't mind taking the heat for an article, but the heat on this one has almost nothing to do with the facts at hand. Other than his playoff performances (which have been alternately really good and really poor), Sanchez hasn't shown that much more than Henne.
The use of "Really?" by SNL's Weekend Update crew was funny when they introduced it... 4 years ago.
Hey, I'm just as ready for the next funny catchphrase as you are. Until then, however, "really" will have to do.
People are testy today. Relax folks, tomorrow is Friday. Deep breath.
Ain't that the truth! Lockout blues may have something to do with it.
Really Jonathon? Really? That SNL skit is from 2006. That's 5 years ago, not 4. Really?
Where is Ed Hochuli when you need him?
If the Jets and Dolphins actually were Jets and Dolphins, who would win? I can't imagine either would be able to hold on to the football.
Kind of related comment - Henne is 3-1 against Sanchez and yet Sanchez's backers don't mention that when saying he has better "intangibles" than Henne.
HEY! Chat police, stop steppin on my toes. 15 yds for impersonation!
Glad you could make it, Ed! Well, on that note, I've got to cut out a few minutes early today. Before going, should mention that the TFS material can be followed on Twitter @kcjoynertfs. I also answer as many Twitter questions as I can, so feel free to send comments over there (but be sure to save the best questions for this chat!). Hope to see you all here next week!