Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
I see espn has Jahvid Best ranked kinda low. When he was healthy last year he put up big numbers. what do u expect from him now that he is going into this season healthy?
Best had some subpar numbers last year. His 5.6 YPA with good blocking is very low and he did next to nothing on plays without good blocking. Still not sold on him being a dominant back.
KC, need to get this one in early before afternoon work. Can I count on Legarette Blount as a RB #2 this season on my fantasy team behind DMC? Thanks KC.
Blount should be a terrific #2 fantasy RB and may be worth even more than that.
KC, do you believe Kolb will be the starting QB in Arizona come week 1?
I'd lean towards no if only because the Cardinals may not overpay for a quarterback who really isn't a proven commodity. They may figure they can build on their strengths (which they actually have many of) and then wait until they can get an even better prospect at QB.
Eagles Question KC, hate to be team centric but I can't help to think the Eagles have enough talent in the DE category (or enough unknowns) to keep from breaking the bank on a free agent. Do you think Tapp, Cole, Graham (PUP), P. Hunt, Teo Neshaim, Abiarimiri, Parker, and Sapp will be enough? Will one of those flourish like Babin under Washburn? If not who do you see them targeting. Thanks for the Chat!
The Eagles have a track record of getting quality production out of a DE rotation and they have good a set of ends at the moment. Tapp is quite underrated (he's a very good pass rusher). No need to overpay for FA DE talent for Philly, although they could go for someone if the price is right (and given the slew of FA DEs, that is a very possible scenario).
Do you think the Giants will go to the playoffs this year ?
Yep. Can definitely see another double-digit win season out of that team.
TFS, would you take a chance on randy Moss on your fantasy bench?
He's got a mercenary mindset and his agent is pitching that he is very motivated to put up another great year. I'd not draft him in front of anyone who will put up surefire quality numbers but as far as his being a good potential draft day risk, sure, why not?
It's felt like the talk of the O-line in MN went from man they are beasts 3 years ago, to wow Favre got hit alot, to man they suck pretty quickly. I know that the offensive line is difficult to break down statistically, but the only connection I can see is to the loss of Matt Birk. It feels like when he left that the level of play dropped significantly. Could it all hang on the center in Minny?
The Vikings gave their ballcarriers a favorable blocking situation 54.9 percent of the time, which is one of the better percentages in the league in that category (the full list of this will be available in the TFS Fantasy Football Draft Guide, which should be published in the next week or so). They did a good job in that area and given that they are going to be a run-first team without Favre behind center, they should be in good shape there in 2011.
How did Felix Jones fare in terms of Good blocking YPA?
Not as well as in past years, only 6.8. It's still a quality total but if memory serves correct, he was in the 8+ range in the past.
I'll give you two: good blocking YPA (7.8) and the percentage of times they gave the opposition an unfavorable blocking situation (49.0). Both are quality totals and show that Whisenhunt can lean on his 1970s-style brand of football to a large extent.
How many carries do you think Shonn Greene will get this season? And, will he or LT be the primary goal line back.
They are talking about using him as the bell cow, and he is coming off of a season where he had 185 carries. Could see him getting in the neighborhood of 275-300 carries. And LT will be the goal line back if he plays in camp like he did last year (no inside info, just figure that's the role they have in mind for him).
This is just a random question and was wondering if you knew more about this. Football and Baseball to a lesser extent usually trade players for draft picks or prospects yet the nba almost always includes players for players. Any reason why the nba and mlb go that route instead of having more player for player trades? I can't even recall the last player for player trade in the NFL.
Player for player trades used to happen in the NFL a lot more than they do today. Free agency and the salary cap are big reasons why they don't happen now.
Do you think Jay Cutler can deliver?.....and will the Bears make the playoffs?
The biggest question for Cutler is how will he hold up when Bears fans turn on him again (and they will the very minute he struggles). If he can't deal with that any better than Grossman did, he won't deliver and the Bears won't make the playoffs.
When will the lockout end ?
Am getting this question a lot. It looks like neither side wants to be the last to have compromised, and that is causing the standstill (at least that was the case at last report). If that changes and one side decides to do something for the greater good, we'll have the HOF game and a full preseason.
Better facial hair.... B.Wilson, R.Fingers or the Mannings Football Cops promo?
Haven't seen the Manning football cops promo, so can't quite weigh in. Can say that it's funny Rollie Fingers was mentioned, as I was just telling my sons about his handlebar mustache a couple of weeks ago.
Hello K Sidge! We gotta get that KCJ headshot prior to our fantasy draft (Late August). Now then.... tell me the SAGE ranking of Redskins backs, of Torain, Helu, Royster, Williams, etc.
Jimmy, it's good to hear from someone as optimistic as you! Regarding the Skins, their O line as a whole gave the RBs mediocre blocking (had a 42.0 percent good blocking rate), but it didn't stop Torain from posting a 7.8 GBYPA. Helu is a very good one cut and go runner, so Washington should have a good run game if they can just improve that good blocking rate.
When does the special pricing on your Fantasy Draft Guide end? As far as football questions, what do you expect this year out of Ray Rice and Lesean McCoy?
The special pricing will be in place until the draft guide is released (more info can be found at www.thefootballscientist.com - only site plug of the chat). The initial release date was set on/around July 15 but the extra run blocking metrics (got a ton of them) have pushed that date back about a week.
Are you a fan of the office
My older brother tells me that the British version of that show was great and I hear the early American ones are terrific. Having said that, Mrs. Scientist isn't really a big Steve Carell fan so it hasn't been a show we've sat down with yet.
Tom Brady isn't as good as Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers played better with a worse O Line, he's much faster than Brady and is a better decision maker. Why did espn put him 4th overall when there's no doubt he's the best player at the game of football?
Rodgers did have superb numbers last year (highest vertical YPA in the league) but Brady had to post his numbers while making a huge change in the offensive philosophy in mid-stream (after Moss left). That's one justification for putting him slightly ahead of Rodgers.
What is your estimated round where I would have to tab MD's own Torrey Smith in a fantasy draft? I was thinking around 6, 7?
The Ravens had a very good vertical passing game last year (something that was reviewed in a TFS story on Joe Flacco a few weeks back), so Smith is going to a team that will know how to utilize his skills. Having said that, vertical rookie wideouts are often a high risk fantasy situation, so waiting until 6 or 7 makes sense.
Been a while KC! So I have a bone to pick with ESPN rankings and I think you may agree with me here. How are people ranking Manning the #2 player when over the last 3 years his numbers across the board are WORSE than Brady, Brees, Rivers and Rodgers. I'm talking about Td/Int ratio, YPA, QB rating. Their metrics have to say the same thing right? It's blind Manning love
Good to have you back in the chat! Regarding Peyton, the most likely idea there is that he did more with less last season. Having said that, he did have a three-game stretch where he threw 11 interceptions and seemed to try to put the team on his back more than he should have (Indy had a solid GBYPA as a team). That might be enough in my book to lower his ranking but that doesn't seem to be the consensus view.
Are you an Andrew Luck fan? If so, what makes him a great QB for the NFL?
When breaking down Luck on tape, he already looks like a NFL QB. He's a pure pocket passer, reads defenses well, knows how and when to dink/dunk and when to take chances downfield.
Everyone buy the scientist's draft guide so he can upgrade to HD this season!! Vince Young to arizona make any sense?
It wouldn't be a chat without Dansby mentioning HD! Young to Arizona makes sense as long as Young is willing to work in the Whisenhunt system (which is to say a run-first team).
In honor of Jim Valvano's speech, and the ESPY's, I got to thinking of NC State. Many chatters may not know that NC State's own, Philip Rivers was 0-4 against the University of Maryland. Worth noting.
I took a lot of grief from NC State fans after the recent article about Russell Wilson. Am figuring this might make up for it a bit.
Who is the infamous sleeper RB you were talking about KCJ? Dont mess with us! (Tenn was a HUGE run first team btw, so easy transition for Vinsanity)
That article is a moving target right now depending on how the lockout situation progresses. It could be released as early as next Tuesday. I'll post a note on it on Twitter (@kcjoynertfs) as soon as the date is solidified.
Not trying to avoid the question, as I really want to pitch this player's skills!
Plus, momma needs a new pair of shoes!!KCJ...you say the metric show AZ a quality running team? Why did Beanie look so bad last...injuries? What do you know about the rookie RB they drafted? Again...thanks for all the insight!!
Injuries are one thought, but the presence of Tim Hightower is another. Arizona will almost certainly go with a RBBC approach, so any back in their backfield should post solid numbers (solid being a relative term based on how many carries the Cardinals offense gets this year).
What is the fair price to pay for Fat Albert Haynesworth? In Philly he would be reunited with his old Tenn line coach...
Any price short of a high first round pick is probably reasonable. It won't happen because the Redskins know if Haynesworth goes to Philly, he will make a personal goal to destroy their O line twice a year (and he's still got more than enough skills to do just that).
If you were Jerry Jones, what moves do you make to get back to the big game? FS is a must but what else?
Signing Free is a necessity. Getting a young CB in FA would help (and there are a number of quality FAs available). Not a lot of moves are necessary for this team, because if they have a healthy Romo, they are a Super Bowl contender.
YOU CANT HANDLE THE TRUTH KCJ!!! TELL US THE RUNNING BACK!!!
Are you saying this is a code red situation?
Who has most fantasy upside? R. Moss, T Owens or P Burress?
Completely depends on where they end up. Put Moss on a run-first team like Tennessee and his value is diminished. Put him on a pass-first team and he could see 100+ targets. Ask again when that variable is worked out.
Bringing up Haynesworth, how does a Haynesworth for Kolb trade sound? Or Haynesworth for Orton?
Kolb would probably be too high of a price for Philly (although it would be worth it to see the look on Kolb's face if this happened - "Oh, man, Haynesworth is going to set his mind on knocking me senseless!) Haynesworth for Orton would be a more likely move in that they are in different conferences and thus the backlash of the move wouldn't be quite as bad if it didn't work out.
"McNabb was scheduled for the first flight out of DC..." (where is his likely landing spot?)
Just got that movie on DVD and have been thinking about watching it again. Will have to do so after the draft guide is completed. That flight would probably go west, maybe to Arizona or Seattle.
Does Darnell Docket do well year to year in your metrics? He is the most ferocious DT/DE i've seen outside of 2008 Albert Haynesworth.
Don't have full metrics on Dockett (changed the system up a bit this year) but can say that the tape review completely agrees with this assessment. Most impressive part may have been how he was moved around the D line and dominated regardless of where they put him.
I read where nandi is asking for 18 million a year,, so the CBA is really a joke owners are still having to over pay for these guys, then provide for them later after already paying him 18 million, does he really need help after his career.
The veteran portion of the CBA really isn't for players like Asomugha but rather for the rank and file players who didn't become millionaires. There should be some obligation on the part of both the players and owners to do something for players whose health was permanently affected by the physical nature of their job. For instance, look at Earl Campbell. The man can't even walk anymore and it is almost certainly due to the beating he took as a bell cow RB. The game brings in enough money so that guys like Campbell shouldn't have to pay for their medical help.
Not saying that is the case with Campbell, as I have no idea what his medical insurance situation is like, but rather to note that in a case of that nature, the league and its players should chip in to take care of him.
Hi, KC, thanks for the chat. The buzz about Carolina's D-line is that Derek Landri is eminently dispensable -- but I thought I saw some metrics showing him surprisingly adept. Do you have any insight? Thanks!
Dispensable? He was probably their best defensive lineman, or at least he was the best against the run. If Carolina wants to let him go, there should be a long line of teams that want to sign him (at least they will if they broke down the tape).
Jahvid Best had good blocking last year??
More than what might be generally thought. Detroit had a 51.8 percent good blocking rate, which is a very good total.
You said that Atlanta's D can become elite with the aquisition of another pass rusher, but will that and julio jones be enough to put hem over the top?
If they can keep the O line together, pick up a FA DE who can pass rush and re-sign Grimes, Atlanta should once again be a favorite to make the Super Bowl.
DVD...i figured you were a Beta man!
Don't knock Beta! It had a much better picture than VHS.
Which RB would it make sense for Miami to target when free agency starts or would they be wise to bring back Williams or Brown?
Bring back Williams (6.4 GBYPA) and pair him up with Daniel Thomas and all should be good in that backfield.
How much good blocking (percentage wise) did the Dallas OLine give their backs?
They measured in at 44.2 percent, which is really not that good. Some of that probably had to do with Kitna. He did a superb job in many areas (he had the lowest bad decision rate in the NFL) but he had absolutely no verticality to his game. That helped teams stack up against the run. Get Romo to threaten deep passes in 2011 and that number should improve.
Just got on but had to respond to Justin from Wisconsin- draft picks CANNOT be traded in baseball, all trades involve players/prospects. Keep up the great work KC!!!
Can't say for certain if this is true (just don't follow baseball very much anymore) but if that is the case, it would explain the baseball side of the player for player trade question.
I agree totally, but the sham of a union should be helping alot more,, its kinda like church and giving 10%, I bet theses players are not giving 10% to there brothers of the past, i mean 10 percent of mannings contract would help out Campbell and maybe 2 other old timers
I can agree to a certain extent that the players should pitch in some of their salaries for this, but the owners should also pitch in. One recent report said the owners wanted the financial onus for the retired players to come completely out of the players' dollars and that just doesn't seem right. They both have a responsibility to assist.
John in England, it's also to help the already retired players that weren't around for when salries exploded..I remember a story, I belive on Mike Webster, a HOF that could not afford insurance...don't think asking for insurance is too much.
Great way to put it, Scott. It's an embarrassment for the NFL when one of its all time greats like Webster had to face a situation like the one he did. The NFL is going to double its revenue over the next decade and they can't spare a penny for someone like that?
Reggie Bush a good pick up for Miami? Yay or Nay?
If was willing to accept a third down back role, it would be a yay. If not, it's a nay. Well, it's been a very fast hour. Want to thank everyone for the overflow of great questions. Before going, want to mention that the TFS material is always posted on Twitter @kcjoynertfs. Also look for an update on the TFS Draft Guide very soon on www.thefootballscientist.com. Hope to see you all next week!