Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
should I play M. Tolbert or F. Jackson... week 3ty
Jackson, but the real reason I took this question is to note that there will be a TFS fantasy football chat every Friday at 3 PM starting tomorrow. Want to keep this chat centered around topics other than fantasy.
Adam Schefter wrote that the coach who gets to draft Andrew Luck could get to keep his job for 10 years. Really? Obviously there's more that goes into a coach keeping his job but how much of what Schefter (and countless others) say about luck is just pure overstatement? There's so much over-the-top talk about Luck that I get a little hesitant to buy in. What is it about Luck, really? Is he *really* a franchise savior in your eyes? And haven't we heard similar talk about other draft choices? You seem pretty level-headed. What's your take?
The thing about Luck is that he is just like Sam Bradford in that he looks pro ready right now. That kind of hype is huge but everything about Luck's game says he'll be a very good pro.
http://bloggingthebeast.com/2011/09/21/seriously-kc-joyner/In that above link, a NFC east writer made the point that Nnamdi Asomugha has only given up about 14 yards per game over the past four seasons in a rubuttal to you calling him the most overrated player in the game. How can a corner who gives up basically nothing be considered overrated at all, much less the most overrated player in the game?
All that stat shows is what we already know, which is that Asomugha was not thrown at that often in Oakland. In the TFS Asomugha article, it is pointed out that he has a 7.0 YPA in 300 pass attempts over the past seven years. That shows he is not Revis-like in coverage (Revis has a career YPA of 5.3).
Can you commen ton AJ Green. Is he a future stud?
Based on last week, absolutely. His issue was never a lack of talent; it was whether or not his skills would come to the fore in a Bengals offense being piloted by a rookie QB.
So if this chat isn't to include fantasy questions I shouldn't ask about the Vikings prospects for playing in the Super Bowl, correct?
Yeah, that's probably a fantasy world as well.
Two picks for you: Texans/Saints and Carolin/Jags what say you Mr. Scientist?
Hey, Zach, good to hear from you! Would take the Texans over the Saints and the Panthers over the Jaguars.
How does Pitt's make shift o-line match-up with Indy? More power running or short timing routes ala 2006? Any chance for Indy springs an upset? Say 5%? #SuckForLuck
It is amazing that is a hashtag on Twitter. It's reminiscent of the O.J. Simpson bowl back in the day when Buffalo faced off against some other team (NE?) and the loser would get a chance at drafting Simpson. Buffalo lost and many of their fans were actually happy. Pittsburgh's run blocking has actually been pretty good this year, so look for them to pound the ball on the ground against the Colts.
Forget Timberlake, I brought SEXY back!
My dental hygienist is a big Redskins fan and she was telling me how excited she is about Washington's prospects this year, but when the subject of Rex Grossman came up, her mood changed. She cannot stand him and wants Washington to start Beck. That's the way a lot of Washington fans feel, so Rex better keep winning if he wants to keep that job.
What do you think it will take for R.Moss to back to a team this year AND be productive?
Turning the clock back to 2007 wouldn't hurt.
If the Lions stay healthy what do u think their record will be at the end of the season?
Broncos/Titans this week might be an interesting matchup. Do you think CJ breaks out against a weak run D or do the Broncos get enough players back from dings and dents to put up a good fight?
That rib injury could be a concern for CJ2K. That run offense isn't quite the same as the one the Titans used under Jeff Fisher, either. He'll have a good game soon, probably in this contest, but his long-term prospects this season might be less than they have been in the past.
I'd tell your hygienist to be careful what she wishes for because she might get it, KC.
Will do. Have to say that when I am in that chair, I always have good things to say about the Skins. It's that old rule - Never get on the bad side of someone who has dental instruments in your mouth.
What do say the chances are that A.Luck is NOT the #1 pick next year? IE...somehow Car gets #1 pick again
That would be about the only scenario where Luck would not be picked. Even then, Carolina probably picks Luck and then trades him to another team.
PLEASE dont be mad KC, but I have a fantasy question and will not be around to ask you tomorrow. Am I crazy to start OchoCinco over Boldin since AH is out for the Pats?
Not going to be mad, as there will be the occasional fantasy football question in this chat. Don't start Ocho over Boldin.
Do you agree that they should GIVE ME THE BALL!!!
Not necessarily. Getting Ingram more involved in this offense is probably the better move.
Despite Harbaugh's general lack of focus on a TE in his offense, shouldn't there be some emphasis on getting the ball to arguably your most talented offensive player?
One would think so, but Martz had Greg Olsen and didn't use him and still had a productive offense.
Your cheat sheet has really been screwing me so far. CJ2K, Manningham, Foster, Gates have all killed me. Thought I had a good draft.
Are you kidding me? That's a great draft. Just because injuries have crushed Foster and Manningham's value (he nearly had two TDs in the MNF game and could have had more chances were it not for the injury) doesn't make the draft bad. And Gates will have a fantastic game this week against Jon McGraw. Don't give up after only two weeks is what I'm saying!
If a team ended up with the #1 pick in the draft and decided to trade the pick, what kind of haul would Luck bring? It would have to be more than the massive haul Cleveland got for Julio Jones. For teams like Carolina, Indy, NYG, Rams, it seems like the value of their existing QB plus the value of the picks and talent received in a trade would have to be more than the value of Luck.
Luck will be like Elway in that any team that has him and is willing to trade him will be able to get a huge price in return. He's only worth trading if the team has a young franchise QB already in place. Heck, the Panthers might not be off-base if they traded away Newton and were to keep Luck if they ended up with the first pick again next year.
Thoughts on Julio Jones the rest of the season?
He's getting ample targets, so that's not an issue. The entire Falcons passing game looks a bit out of synch, so it isn't entirely him either. He'll pan out as the season progresses.
Do you think Romo will play on Monday? And will he play well?
The guess is he will play. Whether or not he plays well may be a function of who his targets are.
Time to bail on Shonn Greene? Think he can turn it around, or is he too dependent on the Jets having a lead?
He's only on pace to get around 200 rushes so far, which is a very low number. That pace is bound to pick up, so don't bail on him yet.
Am I being used enough in Indy? Should I step aside and let Delone get a real shot? Or is my team so far gone right now that it really doesn't matter either way?
It probably doesn't even matter, but the Colts will want to see if Delone is the real deal. Addai's PT may be dependent on the answer to that question.
Which 1 NFL player are you worried about the most after 2 weeks?
Chris Johnson. That offense is not the same one that was used last year, or at least it doesn't look to be the same one after the first two weeks.
Do you think LeRon McClain eventually gets carries in KC? I can't think TJ has any explosiveness left, and McCluster can't carry the rock more than 6-8 times being too little.
McCluster will serve as a pseudo-Charles in that he'll be the knockout punch that is used after Thomas Jones & McClain wear the opponent down. McCluster probably won't see 300 carries/targets like Charles did, but the 250-mark is certainly possible.
Btw, regarding Nnamdi I remember Miles Austin beating him for two deep balls in 2009. He is nowhere near Revis as a shutdown. Agree with your take.
Aggie, it might be just you and me on that one. Asomugha is highly talented and is a great ballhawk, but he's not as good as Revis in coverage.
Bare with me, but can you envision: 11 games in, the Bills are 7-4 or 6-5 with nothing to lose, need a #2 WR... TO is healthy and looking for a contender to be on... didn't burn any bridges when he left in '09... should be cheap enough for a 1/3 season rental for even Ralph Wilson... Can it work?
It can, but what if Jones and Nelson are developing well at that point? Does one take away their targets to give them to a one-year and gone player? Bills would probably be better served to think long-term in that case.
Who will be more productive? Thomas Jones or Dexter McCluster?
Jones will see the ball more often, but McCluster will be more productive.
IND will place Peyton on IR, go 1-15, draft Luck, and sit him behind Peyton for a couple years. Every other team in the league can forgeting about #SuckforLuck!
That seems to be a commonly wished scenario. Only thing is it assumes Peyton will be back and ready to go in 2011. After three neck surgeries in 18 months and the reported stem cell infusion (which counts as another surgery), it should not be automatically assumed that he will return to football.
Why is P.Harvin on the field for less than 50% of the Vikings plays!?!?! Makes no sense! Berrian & M.Jenkins are nothing compared to Percy.
The issue is that Harvin is a running back playing wide receiver. They don't want to use him as a pure RB very often (why would they want to when Peterson is in the backfield?), so they have to come up with RB-style plays to use for him at WR. That's a bit limiting playbook-wise.
Are you not answering my questions about the Redskins because you are going back to your dentist for a root canal soon?
Sir, I never avoid questions, even if they mean having to take a root canal to answer them!
Speaking of Manningham, do you still think he has a good season?
Yes, but it is more dependent on Eli than it is on Manningham. Manningham could have had a huge MNF game were it not for Eli's inaccurate passes.
What do you make of Daniel Thomas in Miami? Bush is his usual injury prone self, an if Miami wasn't so convinced of Thomas' talent, wouldn't they have tried to keep Ronnie or Ricky, or at least signed someone else?
Thomas had a 6.1 GBYPA (good blocking YPA) total in the three games against tough Big 12 rush D competition last year. That's a solid number and he might be able to replicate it in Miami. Having said that, if the number drops (and collegiate numbers often do drop when the player moves to the next level), it will be subpar (6.0 is the acceptable number there) and Miami will need to look elsewhere for running production.
What do you think of Spiller lining up at receiver?
Kind of like Harvin - it will work for a few play types but unless he learns to run the full route tree, it will be a rather limited benefit.
Hi KC, What are your thoughts on Russell Wilson's play so far? I know you were not as optimistic as most prior to the season, but he's looked great, even if the competition has been pretty weak. Do you think Wisconsin will win the Big Ten?
Have to say that he looks better in this offense than he did with NC State. Still want to see how he plays against better competition but this may be one where I have to eat some crow.
So will Eli put up the near-elite numbers you say he would at the beginning of the season. He is bringing down my team and looks horrible out there
Well, let's not completely give up after two weeks. Having said that, Eli looks a bit flustered by not having either Boss or Smith to throw check down passes to. If NY can get that issue resolved with Stokely or Cruz and can keep their starting WRs healthy, Eli should turn things around.
Von Miller +/- 10 sacks this season?
Book the over on that one. He's looked great so far.
I'm a huge bucs fan and pumped about their offense showing up in the second half last week. Can they put it together this week against Atlanta or is their soft run D just not going to cut it?
That second half was more like it, wasn't it! Tampa's offense will keep improving as that O line gels and acclimates itself to Pat Morris' blocking system.
How do you like the new QBR statistic?
It may be the most innovative statistic in the world of sports analytics. Put it this way - it is a stat I look at every week and I strongly suggest everyone else do the same.
So your suggestion that its not off base for CAR to trade Newton if they can draft Luck implies Cam still hasn't impressed you yet after 2 games?
People keep pointing out that Cam Newton is on pace to throw for over 6,000 yards, but they seem to forget that he is also on pace to throw for 32 interceptions. He's doing some things very well but he's got a lot of room for improvement.
Bill Williamson said early that the rebuilding process for the Broncos has only just begun. I think that their defense is advanced enough that they really only need to rebuild the offense. Do you think that with some better players at skill positions (QB and RB) this could be a contender in a weak division in a couple of years?
They still need some secondary help, as they have some very old players back there. Denver would do well to concentrate their efforts there first and foremost as well as deciding what they want to do at QB.
Your thoughts on Lesean McCoy?
He's finally turning into the Brian Westbrook-type of player Philadelphia wants him to be. He's been very good in his career up to now but this looks like it could be his signature season.
Hakeem Nicks against the Eagles secondary - who comes out ahead?
Nicks has shown a consistent ability to beat any level of CB coverage. As long as he isn't too slowed by the knee and Eli can throw an accurate pass (neither of which is a given), he'll do fine in that matchup.
And you of all people, isn't YPA your go to stat for QB's???
I take the Bill James approach to stats. James was always open to a new stat because he realized its existence did not eliminate earlier stats, but rather added more information to the discussion. Total QBR has its plusses and minuses but all in all it is the most ambitious stat the world of pro football analysis has seen thus far. That type of progress has to be applauded.
What do you think of PFR's Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt?
I'm a big Pro Football Reference fan, use their site all the time.
S. Jackson teases us all with his first carry of the season...will he return this week?
It's very likely but be concerned if you are considering starting him in FF.
Is your dentist Anderson Silva? you avoid my questions like I avoid getting on a teeter totter with Albert Haynseworth
Hey, understand that I answer as many questions as possible. Avoiding questions is not my modus operandi, especially if those questions are funny and/or controversial.
That was a hint, by the way. The comedic posts just aren't as prevalent as they used to be.
Do you see Roy Helu being the starting tailback by season end?
Nope. He got carries last week because Hightower had 46 carries in the first two games. That's a 368-carry pace for the season and Shanahan almost certainly wanted to keep that number from going higher.
Is this the beginning of the end for Tim Hightower, or are you "Keeping the Faith"?
Completely keeping the faith. He's done a very good job this year.
Plus, let's not automatically assume Helu can handle a 20-25 carries per game workload.
Who is one player you can see bursting onto the scene as the season progresses?
Wrote about that in this week's Pass Plays article - Ryan Mathews. His GBYPA has been fantastic and Norv Turner will soon have no choice but to get him the ball more and more often as the season progresses.
Does someone break Marino's passing yards record, or do does all the passin come to a halting "Screech"?
Read the Player X article from this week. He talks about how defenses are very limited in the blitz calls they can make. That will change as the season moves along and will bring these ridiculously high early season numbers back down to more normal levels.
your thoughts on Jordy Nelson?
He takes over Donald Driver's starting WR role by season's end.
If i'm going to miss Nicks on his always open deep routes would u rather me over throw him or keep under throwing him like i have been doing?
Overthrow. The underthrows get picked off (see the MNF game).
This is the first time I have ever seen, heard, or thought of the phrase, "My dental hygienist is a big Redskins fan." Thank you.
We always try to break new ground in the TFS Thursday chats!
Should I be encouraged with the Niners performance vs Dallas? Or is a loss still a loss.
A loss is still a loss but there were encouraging signs. Don't even think of giving up on Harbaugh. He's going to be a great NFL head coach, but it might take a year or two to get this team turned in the direction he has in mind for it.
TFS, How do you think Helu's production on Sunday could have been due to Shanny punishing Hightower for his scuffle with his old team?
That could be part of it, but 46 carries in two games is the more likely reason. Plus, Shanahan knows a thing or two about not liking former employers (i.e. the Raiders), so he'd somewhat understand that line of thinking.
Cam's numbers are better than Bradfords last year against superior teams. What makes everyone question Cam Newtons ability to great, but call Bradford the next great QB after 2 okay games as well?
It's hard to call the Arizona Cardinals week one defense superior, especially with their weaknesses in the secondary. Newton is doing some things very well but as far as his QB play goes, consider this. His Total QBR and passer rating marks after two games are both only slightly above average. That's where he is right now but people see the yardage totals and make it seem like he should be inducted into Canton right now.
Thanks for the chat KC! Much more entertaining without all the FF comments for the majority.
Time for me to wrap up for the day but another fine chat, KC. I like this whole 'two chats, one Joyner' thing. Fantasy Football really should have its own hour. Have a good evening and see you (and everyone else) at 3:00 PM tomorrow for FFL help.
Hey, thanks to all of you for the great questions! Apologies I could not get to them all. Three quick items. The fantasy FB chat is tomorrow at 3 PM (as J.B. noted). The TFS material is always posted on Twitter @kcjoynertfs. More info about the TFS fantasy FB start-sit service can be found at www.thefootballscientist.com. Hope to see you all in tomorrow's chat!