Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
KC - I absolutely loved your Wed article "Patriots win in face of formula." The Pats offense is centered around the short pass. If Brady gets rid of the ball quickly, do you think this strategy neutralizes the Giant's main defensive strength?
Many thanks for that. The odd thing about NE's offense is that the key to stopping them really isn't keeping the short pass in check, but rather stopping their long pass success (see the recent TFS article about how to beat NE). That's the key to the Giants chances of winning.
KC, hoping you'll answer this question since none of the other football people have. It seems to me that the lee evans play this past weekend was very similar to the greg jennings "touchdown" against the Giants in the reg season. For the record I think both were non-scores, but how is one a TD and the other not?
I can only say that the Evans TD evidently did not count because his didn't have control and both feet down. I thought he might have had the second foot down.
KC you think coples, upshaw, and ingram all become top 10 picks? heard they been lights out at the senior bowl practices
Thing that might prevent them from being top 10 picks is the positional needs of top 10 teams. LBs and RBs often don't go that early in a draft.
Shouldn't the Giants be favored in the Super Bowl???
The betting public evidently does not think so, and that's what drives the line. They have been playing better than NE of late and the thought here, at the moment, is that NYG should be the favorite.
KC, with the Vikings' main weaknesses (in my opinion) being offensive line, defensive backs, and wide receivers, which of these 3 areas do you think would be best targeted in free agency rather than through the draft?
There are plenty of good WRs both in the draft and in FA, so that might be a place to aim for help in FA rather than the draft. Or maybe get some help via both avenues.
It seems that people are constantly questioning the Giants talent in the secondary. To me, they are loaded with talent (they have 3 former first round picks and one second rounder). The issue is more that they have faced the best QB competition in the league this year by far. What do you think?
Patrick, I've been backing NY's underrated talent level all year long. The injuries they suffered have been significant but still have been overrated in regards to how they impact this team's overall performance. NE has a great offense and will move the ball but the Giants are their equal in the WR/TE vs. CB/S comparison.
Give me a quick synopsis of what the redskins should do this offseason to be a contender in the nfc east?
Settling on a quarterback would be the first place to start. Can't win a title with revolving passers. Upgrading the WR corps would help.
What Same two NFL Teams Have Played in Multiple Super Bowls?
Could be wrong, but I believe the answer is Redskins-Dolphins, Bills-Cowboys, Steelers-Cowboys and Giants-Patriots (as of a week from Sunday).
Is this draft class deep enough to benefit StL or Min in an instant impact way if they choose to trade down, or is the instant impact potential of the top 5 picks too valuable to lose for rebuilding programs that need starters right now?
Both of those teams need so much help. If they can get a good package of picks in exchange for trading down, it is almost certainly a good percentage play for them to make (assuming the deal in return is a good one).
Is Keuchely from BC all that much better than Burficit and Hightower? (IE would the Eagles be better served taking Keuchely at 15 or trading down for Burficit/Hightower?)
Kuechly is a tackling machine. Eagles D could use that kind of help at the second level. Like Kuechly more than Burfict.
Will Miami be the frontrunner for Matt Flynn, or is it just as likely he'll go to a different team?
Would think they would be the front runner since their HC knows him better than any of the other teams.
How does the Schiano hire impact the Bucs draft day decisions?
It will give them a lot of insight into the draft picks of the next 2-3 years. Don't underestimate the potential value of that, as that is part of what helped Jimmy Johnson put together those great drafts in Dallas.
whats the highest u think weeden could go in the draft and if he was 23yrs old with everything we're hearing out of the senior bowl would he be a top 5 pick?
If Weeden were 23 years old, he would be a top 5 pick. And he can still be a quality QB for some team that is willing to realize his 4-6 year window might be just as good as most of the other college QBs in this year's draft (upper end of the draft obviously excluded from that).
When can we open up this whose the best WR in the NFL debate again? I'll take Fitz dont see one better yet
That argument will be revisited some time this offseason. Probably a topic after the draft (most every article from now to then will center on SB, FA and the draft).
KC, need some math help...I figure you are a scientist, you should know. Did the CBA re-write the draft value chart? It seems like a, now cheaper, high pick is more valuable than in years past. If Bradford (number one in 2010) equaled 3000 then, than Newton last year was definitely greater than. Is there a new draft value chart making its rounds?
Excellent question. Can't say I have a hard and fast answer to it but the reduced draft day cost would almost certainly have to alter their value.
KC, If you were charged with fixing the Eagles D, you would draft ___________ to help at a position of need and hire __________ As a special assistant to help sometimes in over his head Juan Castillio
Believe it or not, the Eagles ranked first in the league in sack/int percentage (the number of plays where they posted either a sack or int). Their big issue was giving up long gains through the air, so getting help in that area is really all they need to do to go from being a hit/miss D to a hit D.
KC, I hope you appreciate the obscure "Tombstone" reference to answer my question. What does the future hold for Victor Cruz? Is he the real deal? Miles Austin exploded onto the scene in similar fashion, and hasn't dominated since.
Hate to say it, but the reference is a bit lost on me. If it isn't kid's fare (I have two sons in elementary school) or football related, it's going to have a hard time finding its way to a screen in this house. Re: Cruz, he looks to be the real deal in the same way Austin was (Austin's issue hasn't been a regression in performance but rather an inability to stay healthy).
When the Pats have had bad games, they lost squeakers to decent teams. When the Giants have had bad games, they get blown out by the Redskins. That is why they are favored.
Excellent point from a hamster in Fresno.
Would it be smart cap-wise for the Vikings to pursue a top FA WR like Colston, V-Jax, etc?
The answer is a qualified yes (qualified based on how much the FA contract would be). The draft has some good WRs but none of them are day one ready like Jones or Green was this past season. The Vikings need immediate help, so getting a WR who will be ready from day 1 would be a good move.
If this game is decided by 20+, who do you suspect will have won?
Patriots. They were 10-3 in games where they gave up 20 or more points, so any game that has a lot of scoring (which a score of that nature probably would) would tend to favor them.
For the Super Bowl, since the Giants were able to run the ball against the Falcons and against the Packers, they'll beat the Patriots because they'll control the clock.
One vote for the Giants run game, which has most certainly been performing a lot better over the past month and change than it did for most of the rest of the season.
I'd say that the Pats are favored because of "Brand Recognition". You've got the Brady/Belicek Pats who have 3 SB titles. You're paying a premium to bet on them.
And that is a comment from someone in NYC.
Some analysts predict Peyton to the Skins, but does he want to play Eli twice and be the worst team in that division for years?Wouldn't Miami be a better fit- better skill players and their 2012 schedule is a cakewalk.
Completely agree on Peyton to Washington as a no go - he won't want to play for Shanahan. Going to Miami would be a much better move.
In all the mock drafts I've seen, Alshon Jeffery is falling to the mid-20s, behind other WRs like Kendall Wright and Malcolm Floyd. Am I crazy if I see a little Calvin Johnson in him? I think he's the second best WR in this class behind Blackmon
Jeffrey has a lot of skill but he also posted a mediocre 8.0 YPA last year. Teams realize he did not have a very good season and are probably downgrading him accordingly.
When was the last time the Patriots won? 2004? Brand name and recognition is all about "What have you done for me lately" in the No Fun League!
And it isn't as if a team from NYC gets overlooked, especially with a Manning at QB.
Bengals-49ers also met in multiple Super Bowls.
Thanks for that! I had a feeling at least one matchup was missing.
Whos does Balckmon compare to ? Fitz?
Wouldn't go that far.
Hey KC, here is one you probably don't get too often. Do you think Drew Stanton could every become a viable NFL starter? I've always liked his upside and thought he caught some tough breaks with injuries and Mike Martz. Thanks.
The issue with Stanton is where is his ceiling? Will a team think that his upside is limited to maybe a 10-6 season with a WC playoff win? If that's the case, he'll have a hard time landing a starting gig.
Who should an Eagles fan who's best friend is from Boston root for in this game? Besides, of course, the meteor hitting the stadium
Patriots. After all, they are playing the season in memory of Myra Kraft.
Remind me, why wouldn't I want to play for Shanahan?
Shanahan is a coach who can't help but try to push the motivational buttons of every player on the roster. Peyton doesn't need to be pushed to work hard but Shananan's history suggests he would push anyways. Manning doesn't need that at this point of his career.
KC, how do you think Justin Blackmon compares to Anquan Boldin?
It's a good comparison in some ways, but Blackmon probably has more matchup buster capability than Boldin (who has a long history of disappearing against decent CBs).
As a Steelers fan, I'm interested in the happenings of signing Mike Wallace to a long term contract or the franchise tag. With that being said, if by some chance someone matches and they get a 1st round pick, isn't their wr corps strong enough with Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders and possibly resigning Cotchery, if it went that way?
They need to lock Wallace up to a long-term deal. Brown is a very good medium pass WR but he's not as good on vertical/stretch vertical passes. Sanders is still a question mark and Cotchery is old.
How do you feel about the Sparano hiring and do you think Sanchez can improve under his system?
Can't say I'm sold on it, but have to say that he did help Henne develop into having stats that were in Sanchez's league (Jets fans hate it when that is pointed out). He won't make the situation any worse, but that's not exactly what NY needed.
Where should I play next year? Whose offense is simplistic enought for me to grasp it?
It may be more of a matter of finding an offense that lets Ochocinco freelance. That isn't the NE style but there are teams out there with offenses that he could still perform well with.
With the possible hiring of Mike Sherman what do you think the chances are of the Dolphins taking a good look at Ryan Tannehill? Would drafting him at #9 be an enormous reach?
It wouldn't be much different from the Vikings drafting Ponder last year, and that move seemed to work out fairly well (at least as far as we can judge it at this point).
I'll have to disagree. I have a hard time believing that Shanahan is pushing London Fletcher's motivational buttons.
So wait, did Elway need to be pushed by Shanahan then?
For all of those asking about Shanahan, go back and read some of the TFS material about him. There are many instances where Shanahan pushed players so hard that he ended up taking good talents and ruining them (at least in the short term).
KC - as disappointing as the Jets played this year are these 2 items more about bad luck than the ability oif the team - one was the amount of turnovers returned for TD's and the other was only 1 missed FG (from 50+) by opponents?
Good points, Harry. A big part of why NY's season was considered so disappointing is that Ryan said it would be a Super Bowl year. Had he not placed those unrealistic expectations on the season, it might not have been perceived as being the train wreck it seems to be now.
I've see differing opinions on the strength of the Pats' o-line. How do you think they'll hold up against the Giants' pass rush?
It'll all boil down to Waters. He's had a horrible season and if he can't hold his own against the Giants, Brady will be in for a long day.
Does the NT in the 3-4 get overrated, or is there reason for concern if the Steelers aren't able to restructure Hampton's contract? While Ziggy Hood has improved as a DE, I can't seem him handled the NT effectively.
Hard to overrate the NT in a 3-4, as that type of defense falls apart if they can't hold their own in the middle. Agree on Hood being questionable as a NT, so Pittsburgh needs to be looking for another (and probably long-term) solution here.
What is the tougher match up this Super Bowl - Giants secondary against Gronk, Welker & Hernandez or Pats secondary against Cruz, Nicks
Pats have the tougher matchup because Cruz and Nicks can threaten defenses in more ways than Gronk and Hernandez.
With passing tendancies in the NFL, would the Bears be wise to package Forte and a #1 to move up and draft Blackmon?
Way, way too much to pay for Blackmon.
is it just me, or would the Redskins actually have been pretty good if every single one of their decent players didnt get hurt or suspended for half the season? Their list of injuries was just... baffling.
It's not bitter at all. Washington does have a division contender caliber set of talent when healthy.
KC with all the talk of Peyton going to Miami, Seattle, New York, etc... have you done a breakdown of he well he plays in open air dome, say during the snowy winter, or hot/humid August heat? If so, assuming he is healthy, can he still play at a high leve in those environments?
All of those factors could be worth looking at, but the reality is that Manning will be 36 years old next season. He's had three neck surgeries in the past 18 months or so and will not have played for 18 months by the time the season starts. None of those factors lean towards his being a good QB solution for any team, or at least a good solution for more than maybe a season or two.
Waters "had a horrible season"? Um, he made the Pro Bowl and was the Pats best lineman during the season. Are you confused?
Please don't judge players by a popularity contest (which the Pro Bowl is). Waters had an awful season. He got overpowered in both the run and pass games.
Waters has had a horrible season??? What? I don't recall seeing him get beat in pass-blocking once this season. In the run game maybe.
He was abysmal in the run game and needed double team help in the pass game. He doesn't have the strength to handle top-line bull rushers any longer.
No, instead go by your opinion. What total nonsense.
Yep. I just pulled all of that out of nowhere. It had nothing to do with spending dozens of hours breaking down New England games this year. Instead of going by that, I'll go by Dan of DC's opinion.
haha, since when did getting elected to the Pro Bowl mean anything?
He absolutely did not need double team help. Tell me, what other lineman helped? BS.
Tell all you what I'm going to do. I'll pitch this as a potential article for next week. Can't promise it will be a go (that's an editor's call) but I'll pitch it. Believe me, this wasn't a case of just not liking Waters. He did play poorly this year, much worse than any other NE lineman.
Apparently DeAngelo Hall is one of the greatest Cbs of our era...
That's right. I mean, he made the Pro Bowl last year. Dan of DC must be remembering that. Hall's 2010 Pro Bowl nomination was an abomination.
That's a personal foul against Dan (DC) for unsportsmanlike bereating of the chat moderator. That's a 15-yard penalty and it remains third down.
The same for Larry (NH). That's also a 15-yard penalty. Third down.
Yes, let's argue with TFS, who studies football religiously. Inexplicable.
I don't mind having an argument, but at least come to the discussion with something more than "your opinion is ridiculous." I respect strong opposing opinions, but that doesn't qualify.
Do you think Bill Belichick can come up with a great game plan for NE to beat the NYG? He really seems to be at his best in a rematch when his NE played and LOST to a team in the same season? I can almost never recall BB/Brady ever losing twice in one season to the same team. Your thought"s...
Agree in many ways about this, but the Patriots did lose to the Jets in the postseason recently. Not saying they will lose to the Giants, just pointing out that they have proven to be beatable in rematches.
TFS on football = me on Simpsons triviaman, I really wasted my 20's....
The 20s are overrated. Spend your time on Simpsons trivia then, as you probably won't be able to do so later in life.
Good to see the chat ref back. It gets unruly without him
Yeah, it's been a while since he made an appearance.
In 1983 John Stallworth made the Pro Bowl - he was awesome that year with a whopping 8 receptions for 100 yards.
Can't remember if this is the case, but if so, it would be another notch in the "Pro Bowl is overrated" argument.
Any tips on how a fan can get his/her hands on enough tape to learn to break down and intelligently evaluate his/her favorite sports? Is a cable/satellite package enough?
The real key is spending a volume of hours breaking down tape. I've now spent well over 10,000 hours breaking down games and still find new things every year. There is no substitute for time in training a scouting eye.
Do you think the Eagles are going to make a hard push to sign Tulloch in the offseason?
That's a possibility. Bigger concern for Philly is shoring up their safety play, however. Well, it's been an interesting chat but it's time to run. Quick note - the TFS material is always posted on Twitter @KCJoynerTFS. Hope to see you all here next week!