What's up my friends? Big card this weekend, or big main event with filler? Lots going on. Diaz/Condit. Nelson/Werdum. Brady/Manning. What's on your minds this Friday?
People are sleeping on Condit. BJ outboxing Diaz in the 1st round till his cardio failed him (again), and I know Diaz pressure has a lot to do with it, but Condit has more power and better cardio then BJ, and his striking is great to. 26 finishes in 27 fights is incredible, Condit stoppage rd 3.
There are definitely more people picking Diaz than Condit, but I'm certainly not sleeping on him. That guy is good wherever the fight goes, and he's got a very accommodating opponent in Diaz who will stand in front of him. Remember that Daley almost put Diaz away last year...Condit can definitely do it.
Who do you have tomorrow and why?
Having said that, I am taking Diaz. Just like him to use that jab into combos, and work him the way he did Penn. I'm taking Diaz by decision.
What does Condit have to do to beat Diaz?
Landing that big shot would help. But otherwise just wearing Diaz down and outdogging him. We know he can take punches to land, and he'll have to.
Not a Rashad fan, but I thought he was masterful. Dominant on the ground against a great wrestler, and he stayed healthy for a quick turn around title fight. I don't think he has a chance, but he always proves me wrong when I underestimate him.
That's a good point Mike. Actually, the Rashad of new is more like the Rashad of old, back when he was an underdog in most of his fights. I thought it said something that he outwrestled Davis, and if he can that kind of control on Jones...you never know.
Is this thing on?
Up and running, Jay. What you got?
Absolutely stoked for Diaz-Condit, can Condit handle Diaz' volume? Can Diaz handle Condit's length. Just see this one as an absolute war.
Those are good questions. I think that Diaz gives the illusion of length with that lead jab, and he's very clever in how he mixes up that volume striking. While he takes a cumulative toll, Condit will have to look to lower the boom. He has the power. That makes for a compelling fight. I'm with you.
Where do you get all those fancy hats from? I met you in Chicago, I must say stylish!
At the newspaper boy shop.
What did you think about how Nelson looked yesterday? Do you think he is ready to go 3 rounds if needed?
I thought Nelson looked like a full moon was coming up over the crests. It's hard to say with Nelson in the late rounds. I like Werdum in this one...
How does Big Boy Roy Nelson look this week? Does it look as though he has continued to lose weight?
It did to me, but I guess we'll find out in a few hours when he hits the scale.
Which prospect has the biggest chance of stealing the show and making an impact (escluding Pierce-Koscheck, Werdum-Nelson, Conduit-Diaz)
Out of all the names you mention, only Pierce can be considered a prospect (though he has been around a long time). This could be a breakout fight for Pierce if he can beat Kos. That's a huge leap towards contention.
Hendo really going to wait until after Rashad/Jones?
From what I'm hearing, that's his plan. The toughest thing for a 41-year-old fighter who gets antsy is limbo. Yet it's a precious position to be in, to be next in line for a title shot (and maybe two). Can't blame him for waiting to "see what happens."
Are the weigh in's going to be on Fuel today or just online?
They will be on Fuel, as far as I know.
Since Werdum easily handled Overeem standing up, do you see him and Nelson in a stand-up affair, or are we finally going to see Nelson's Jitz game?
What's up, my friend? I think we'll see a little bit of both. Werdum will get it to the ground at some point. Remember when he was begging Overeem to follow him down there? So unbecoming.
Barao get a title shot with a win?
Hey Chuck, what do you think is Dillashaws ceiling? He got roughed up by Dodson in the TUF finale but he's only 25, whats your take on him?
I think that Dillashaw could make a lot of noise. Team Alpha Male teammates talk about him and his work ethic all the time.
what are your picks for this week? and how did you score the sonnen-bisping fight?
I am taking Diaz, Werdum, Koscheck, Herman and Barao. I had the Sonnen/Bisping fight 29-28 for Sonnen, but I can see the complaints. That first round was close.
Will someone exciting be taking my place in the Bellator Lightweight tourney?
I think somebody will have to, unless you were dreaming the whole thing about going back to jail.
No questions from women? Sonnen is a joke, right? He should have lost. After Silva smashes him, is that the end of him in UFC.
It'll be real interesting to see what happens with Sonnen/Silva. I am very interested in that fight down in Sao Paulo (presuming it happens). If Sonnen were to lose, I don't think he'd hang it up yet but his time as a middleweight might end. He would be that weight classes version of a Koscheck.
I decided that I am going to vegas for the weekend what is best way to get tickets to show without paying an arm and leg for them?
Follow Dana White's twitter feed. Or, if that seems like too much on a long shot, check with Mandalay Bay's concierge.
You are crazy to think Diaz wins by DECISION! if it goes to decision it will be because Condit wins... no way Condit can lose the majority of the rounds and not get stopped by Diaz... Diaz is RELENTLESS chuck.
I know he is, and so is Condit. That's what makes it fun. I could see it ending via TKO either way, but when pressed, I say decision for Diaz.
One for the ladies. What did you think of Sonnen? I thought his post fight schtick was a big turnoff after Bisbing out fought him.
It definitely seemed like he jumped the shark a little bit with the straight-up pro-wrestling shtick. He is so fast off the cuff and such an articulate guy, not sure why he's now playing at those antics.
Was there ever any talk of Henderson skipping ahead of Sonnen after that blah performance against Bisping? Do you think Hendo would rather fight Silva or Jones if given the choice of only one?
I don't think there was ever talk of skipping Henderson in front of Sonnen (or Evans, for that matter). It was contingent on injuries. Sonnen didn't look great, but that's a huge money fight against Silva. I think if given the choice, Henderson would take Silva. He has long said that loss stuck in his craw after a bad weight cut in Columbus at UFC 82.
Am I wrong to think that Miesha Tate is going to beat Ronda Rousey? I see Ronda doing more PR than ever and Miesha has face great submission artists in Marloes Coenen.
Tate is tough. And we've only seen scant few fights from Rousey (all of them violent). I wouldn't be surprised if Tate gets it done...and how about that card? Not bad top to bottom for March 3.
Jon Anik said that if you don't talk about Gronk soon, he won't let you ride in his Maserati anymore. Who you got on Sunday?
I am pretty sure Anik rolls around in a Honda, but I am catching your drift. I'm taking the Patriots. Revenge.
do you know when cain is going to be back. I read possibly bigfoot in april?
That's the last I heard, too. I think that'd make for an interesting fight. With the influx of heavyweights coming over from Strikeforce, there should be no shortage of intriguing match-ups for Joe Silva to look at.
You posted my question, but didnt answer!
What was it again?
What's the deal with Fabricio Werdum "potentially" entering the mix for a heavyweight contender with a win over Big Country? Last I checked, big Country wasn't near contention, after beating only Cro Cop in his last three?
I don't think either guy will be close to contention, but in a division with such a dearth of elite fighters, the winner may be closer than you'd think.
Can we get back to what's important? Namely, me?
Of course. Of course we can. Always.
Chuck, seems like the last few UFC shows were pretty low on sales and ppv. With the injury of GSP and retirement of Lesnar, do you think UFC is desparate to make a big card aka potential Diaz vs. GSP fight?
I don't know about desperate, but definitely hopeful. Diaz/Condit is a sick fight. But overall it's not the strongest card. I do like the Barao/Jorgensen fight though. Could be a title eliminator (and maybe should be).
do you know if gsp will be there this weekend?
I think he's in Vegas, yes.
What do the other fights think of Chael and his act of late?
It's such a range of opinions there. A lot of fighters think he's funny and entertaining, and that's part of the business. Some of turned off by his approach. And Brazilians (except for maybe Demina Maia) don't care for him much.
Chuck, if Diaz/Condit winner isnt hurting, who would they face next, assuming GSP isnt ready until late in '12?
My pick would be Johny Hendricks. He just beat the perennial (if perennially unrecognized) No. 2 in the division via knockout. First time Fitch had been KO'd in like eight years (Wilson Gouveia was the last). And he's healthy and ready to roll. If not him, then Ellenberger if he gets by Diego Sanchez.
You giving Jorgensen and kind of a chance against Barao?
I give him a chance, but Barao is a dynamic fighter. He has a lot of weapons. Can't see Jorgensen having all the answers for what'll be coming at him.
Do you see Matt Hughes fighting again... For a last Hoorah he certainly deserves? I would love to see him go out in victory!
I do see him fighting again, and it will likely be his last fight. Dan Hardy has been calling him out, and so did Royce Gracie. A lot of guys want to be his swansong.
Next for Weidman? I'm not terribly excited about a Palhares matchup, and Munoz will be on the shelf for a while.
I think it will be Palhares. You have two guys in about the same position in the weight class, both coming off of wins. Makes sense for timing, too.
What's going on with Demian Maia?! The submission magician has disappeared!
Did a blog about that very thing. He wins his first five UFC fights via submission then his next eight go to decisions. I think he needs to get back to his roots a little bit, and use his improved striking to that end. He was winging some seriously sloppy lefts in that last fight. Not his game.
Can't believe FOX3 main event is Diaz/Miller. Rolling two fighters that the general public probably haven't heard of as the main event on national TV doesn't make a lot sense to me. Maybe the UFC's hoping people will think it's Nick Diaz...
It's funny you say that, Jeff. I know that Jim Miller has been dying for some exposure. He doesn't have a nickname, he's been on the main card like ten times and yet he's still somewhat anonymous, and he's nearing contention again...a big win over Diaz jumps his stock considerably.
Do you think Mighty Mouse could beat up Superman?
I presume you mean Demetrious Johnson against Dennis Hallman? (Will take Hallman)
any news on ken-flo? I hope we get to see him again in lightweight. I think he is one of the best fighters to have never won a belt
I know he is strongly considering retirement after ongoing back issues. He may be the greatest penultimate fighter there ever was. But he'll always been on your television as an analyst on FOX/FX/FUEL.
Think Evan Dunham is getting back on track with winning his last 2.
Definitely looked good. Another win like that and he's right back in the discussion.
Assuming Gustaffson wins his next fight in Sweden, how many wins is he from a shot? Surely he will have to beat at least one top 10 guy (maybe 2) before he gets Bones right?
If Gustafsson beats Lil Nog (and I think he will), that will jump him into a top five top of fight. At that point, depending on where the division is at, it could be for a title eliminator.
Diaz/Miller is going to be an awesome scrap! Speaking of nicknames, where are we on a nickname for you, Chuck? Anik had "Chost". Brett has "Hello 'Moto"...
You tell me...I am like Jim Miller. No nickname.
Did you get a chance to see the new UFC opening that Dana showed the media yesterday?
I didn't get a chance to see it yet, but the media who did seem pretty excited about it. I mean, change the intro all you want, but, you know, an intro's an intro to me.
What's the vibe in Vegas compared to other locations you've been to? It must be just as much fun to watch the action outside the ring in that town.
In some cities the UFC sort of takes over (like Toronto) for a few days. In Vegas, it's part of a complete circus. Especially during Super Bowl weekend.
Has a fighter ever used a Misfits song to enter the ring?
I think guys have walked out to Danzig before, but not sure about Misfits. How great would "Queen Wasp" be for a walkout song?
Royce gets koed by hughes.
Yeah, Royce kind of trumpeted that up a little bit at UFC 134 in Rio. Not sure the UFC took any of it too seriously.
Don't like any of the lines this weekend. Maybe Big Country at +120 if he looks good later today at the scale. You laying anything down this weekend?
Mike Pierce has good value, and he's somewhere in the range of a 2-to-1 underdog. Check out Brett Okamoto's "Red Ink" feature. I think that's the way he's leaning, too.
What do you think of Lavar Johnson-Pat Barry/Nate Diaz-Jim Miller being on UFC on Fox 3? Better fights or bigger risk for UFC?
As far as excitement aimed at that anonymous "casual" fan, those fights are pretty good looking to me. Johnson/Barry? Somebody will get knocked out. Any fight with Nate Diaz is alluring, and Jim Miller has been waiting for that spotlight a long time. This looks safe than Fox 2 for entertainment value alone.
Is Mir waiting on the SF Grand Prix winner for a contenders bout (if that Final ever happens)? Any word on his next fight?
Good question. I think that Mir is just waiting to find out what's next either way, but the winner of Cormier/Barnett would make for a great title eliminator for Mir.
New intro? They're getting rid of that gladiator? That was getting old circa UFC 50.
Gladiator is dead. Kaput.
Who's on your MMA Mt. Rushmore?
Would have to go Liddell, GSP, Anderson Silva and Nik Lentz.
I kid about Lentz. Would maybe go Couture? That's a tough one. Don Frye's mustache would look good on the side of a mountain.
Question was, will Barao get a title shot if he gets past Jorgensen? Thanks Chuck
I think he will get a title shot if he wins. And ditto Jorgensen, though I don't think this has been stated yet.
Cormier/Barnett is in April, right?
Is it in April? I hadn't heard the exact month. It was supposed to be the first quarter of 2012...and April is close enough.
Is Hioki next if he wins, or will the Korean Zombie be next regardless since hes the only other "name" at FW besides Aldo?
I think that Hioki will get the next title shot if he wins in Japan. The sticking point might be Frankie Edgar. Should he lose and go down to featherweight, there's a great match-up.
Chuck, what have you heard about the Silva/Sonnen rematch in Brazil? It seems like the UFC is having difficulty securing a stadium.
I did see they were having some trouble securing the stadium due to noise restrictions at the ungodly hour that the fight would play out. However, the UFC seems to think it'll happen in June, in Brazil, one way or another.
Haha. Speaking of Sonnen. How much do you think his life insurance is after booking his next flight to Brazil? I mean his Ego is HUGE, but 100,000 naysayers in one place booing you? Thats gotta hurt Chael!
It just makes for such a crazy event. One man against a country, in a way. All of them hoping for Sonnen's comeuppance. The craziest scenario is imagining Sonnen winning. What would happen then?
Haven't heard much from Kharitonov. Will he be joining the UFC with the rest of the strikeforce heavies?
I haven't heard too much about Kharitonov, but I'd suspect he'd be among the imports from Strikeforce. He's a heavy-handed hitter, which is sometimes good enough.
Hello sir Charles. I heard BAMMA already rid themselves of Nate Marquardt. Have you heard anything about where he is heading? Thank you kind gent.
Well, I am not 100% sure where he's headed, but my guess is right back to the UFC. Dana White left the door open a little bit about his return last week, saying he doesn't dislike Marquardt. If not UFC, he should fight Anthony Johnson somewhere else.
Hows it going chuck?? gsp vs diaz, who do got winning? I would have to give a slight edge to gsp.
What's up, Shane? It's funny how many people have slotted Diaz into that fight. I'd give the nod to St. Pierre, too, but there will be some question marks. His knee chief among them. It helps that he's so motivated for that fight.
Have to think the odds of GSP/Spider is close to 0 at this point, right? Its really a shame. That fight should have happened at some point.
I think the UFC missed the boat on that superfight. For one thing, nobody cleans out a division. It's almost impossible because there's always a new crop of challengers nipping at the champ's heels. For another, both guys are injured, Silva is 37 and has only a handful of fights left, and St. Pierre waffles on going up to 185.
Thank you for the chat today. Awesome way to kill an hour on Friday afternoon.
Glad to do it, Scott. It's fun to chat up the fights closer to the action.
Why weren't the title holders in Chicago to get a word in after they seen who the next challenger would be?
Jon Jones was there, but he was in the booth doing analysis on FOX. And Silva...not sure on that, but I doubt it seemed to inviting to come all the way to Chicago to be badmouthed again by Sonnen in front of millions.
Since Eddie Alverez isn't into the whole "tourney" thing anymore since hes already "climbed the ladder", do you think he bolts Bellator after his fight with Aoki?
I'm not exactly sure of his contract status, but I believe he has more than one fight left. I know that in talking to him he's not opposed to going to the UFC, but it'd be up to the UFC to pay him what he wants/deserves.
We having chat every Friday or just before fight weekend?
That's the plan, Andy.
People are very short-sighted. Yes you put a big name on a Fox card to attract some eyes, but you also put guys you want to build on the card.
That's right. Big names are great, but crazy fights are also great. I think that that's the idea for the FOX 3 card in New Jersey.
When will the UFC come back to Chicago?
I don't know of immediate plans, but I am assuming they won't be back in 2012. I feel bad for Chicago. Not only did they get UFC 90 and the Patrick Cote/Silva thud, but they got a card that didn't quite live up to expectations this last time through. Chicago's luck is the opposite of Toronto's, which got two amazing cards.
What tips would you give Jon Jones after his pretty mediocre job analyzing in Chicago? He seems like a smart kid. You'd think he would be a natural for commentary after a (hopefully) long and storied career.
Repetition. Once he gets the hang of it and gets some confidence, he'll be alright. Having spoken to him in a person a few times, he's pretty amazing at analyzing fights.
The time for the GSP/Spider fight was after GSP had beaten Hardy and Spider had beaten Sonnen. GSP's next fight was against Kos and Spider's next fight was against Belfort. Neither of those fights had to happen. You are right, the UFC missed the boat on this one.
I think you're right, Chuck...but there's at least a remote chance for Jones/Silva in there. Pending Silva's health/longevity.
Okay, guys and gal, time for me to bounce. Weigh-ins will be streaming live on ESPN.com/MMA, so check it out. Always interesting to see a Nick Diaz weigh in. If I didn't get to your question, hit me up on my Twitter feed @ChuckMindenhall. Cheers!