The Top 100 ranking AND a Top Chef recap. I've been busy.
Looking at the #'s last year for a guy like Martin Perez (#20) and James Paxton (#51) - Paxton's look much more dominant. Is the discrepancy between their rankings mostly the difference in age or something more?
Let's get this out of the way up top: Minor league numbers have their uses, but unadjusted stats without the associated scouting reports are too incomplete to have any value for a question like this. Perez is higher because he's younger with better stuff and command. It would be a small exaggeration to say I don't care about their stats, but I can't say I let it bother me at all.
Thanks for the top 100 KLaw great birthday present. Wanted to know if you think the broken hamate bone is going to affect Grossman's power this year?
I think it will because it always seems to affect the player's power for a full year afterwards. Fortunately for him, power isn't a huge part of his game.
Was Aaron Sanchez over Syndergaard and Nicolino a tough decision? How close was it?
Which 2 or 3 prospects do you have a gut feeling you may have ranked too low on your list? Great work, BTW.
I'd start with Austin Hedges, who is in the just missed category. Could be too low on Delgado (if he's got a better chance to start than I think), Neil Ramirez (dinged him on health), and May.
Am I dreaming or could Ravel Santana be the Yankees #1 prospect as early as some time in 2012? I saw him in game action and his bat speed looks Sheffieldesque...
Suffered a major leg injury that is likely to take him out of action for much of this year. He would have been on my Yankees top 10 had he been healthy.
Was Matt Adams close to making the cut?
No. I like him, but he's bat-only and doesn't get on base enough.
Which team's system has the best crop of guys outside of the top 100?
Padres. Could also argue Tampa or Toronto.
I was surprised to see that Vizcaino was ranked higher than Teheran. It seems the general consensus is that Vizcaino will be in the bull pen. I am assuming you disagree with this move? Also, I fear the Braves are going in the wrong direction organizationally since they refuse to pay top dollar for amateurs (even though their farm system is supposed to be their top priority). Do you see any reason for hope?
I don't consider likely organizational use or misuse of players, just pure potential in a neutral context. Vizcaino can and should start eventually. If Atlanta chooses to leave that value on the table by consigning him to the pen, that's their problem, certainly, but shouldn't affect where I place the player on the list.
Why was Robbie Erlin not considered a top 100 guy? Is it lack of ceiling? It seems like several guys who profile as future 2/3 starters made the list and Erlin seems like a safer bet than a lot of them. Do you see him as having less than a number 3 ceiling?
He has less than a number 3 ceiling. Little LHP without a big fastball and a real flyball tendency. Should fare well in Petco, though.
How close were Cole & Bundy for you? Could you have flip-flopped the two?
Any two players on this list in adjacent spots could be flipped and I wouldn't argue.
I sww Harper and Rendon made the list (#2 and #17). How close were Goodwin, Meyer, Solis, and Ray to making the list? Thanks.
Meyer is in the 'ten who just missed' column (which goes to eleven). The others were not considerations.
Thanks for the top 100! With Starling Marte expected to make his debut in 2012, do you see the Pirates shopping McCutchen, Marte, or keeping both?
Marte isn't ready to make his debut this year. He has tremendous tools, but call me when he draws 25 walks in a season.
Have you seen or heard anything about Gerardo Concepcion, the 19 year Cuban pitcher the Cubs signed for $7.5 million last week?
Athletic LHP, upper 80s fastball, avg curveball, not a great delivery, lacks present command.
You hint at it a little bit, but can you explain what separates Familia from say Betances?
Betances has a chance to start, but I project him as a reliever. Familia has effectively no chance to start.
If you were to put Darvish on this list, where would he be?
I didn't because I wouldn't. He's not a 'prospect' in any rational sense of the world. He's a major-league ready starter with experience in what I would argue is the second-best professional baseball league in the world.
Local writers here in CO love Trevor Story. You have some klaw info on him you can provide? Thanks for all the in-depth writing on each top-100 guy...great read.
Love the arm and chance for above-average defense at short. Question the bat.
How did Trey McNutt fall out of the top 100?
Injuries, trouble repeating delivery, poor results. In that order, really. I do still like him quite a bit.
Matt Davidson was a guy I didn't expect to see, can you give us some insight into what he ceiling might be at the plate?
Average glove at third, chance to hit .300 with 20-25 HR and some walks.
I saw you moved Michael Taylor into your Nats top ten. Do you think he's a potential top 100 next year?
Yes, I do.
You are one of the only prospect evaluators that is this high on Hutchison. Why is it that you think other evaluators aren't so high on him?
You should ask them.
I was surprised to see Tyler Austin ranked 5th in your NYY top 10. I had previously heard he might not have a position down the line. Do you believe he can stick at 3rd and/or can hit with enough power to play 1B or corner OF?
Improved his defense significantly this year. Real chance to stay at third now. Also should throw a plug in for Ben Gamel as a deep sleeper on the Yankees' list.
Why do you have eleven guys on a "Ten Who Just Missed" list?
Because this one goes to eleven.
The top three prospects in the NL West are all Diamondbacks, yet you have the Padres system ranked higher. How much value are you assigning to borderline major-leaguers?
Very little. How eager are you to call players who project as average or better in the big leagues 'borderline major-leaguers?'
Never saw any reaction from you on the E Jackson signing in Wash. I know you aren't his biggest fan, but this seems like a great deal for the Nats, right?
Did you consider dropping Hicks off the list altogether?
No. Upside is still too high to ignore. Tools are there. Approach was just much more crude than I though.
Of the guys in your top 10, who is the most likely to fulfill their potential? Least likely?
Most: Trout. Least: Cole.
I was a little surprised to see Jesus Montero ranked as high as he was. He didn?t have a great year at AAA, and obviously, as a DH, brings no defensive value to the table. I must be missing it, is his bat really that special?
Yes, it is, or I wouldn't have ranked him where I did.
If Tyrell Jenkins has a solid season, could he break the Top 25 next year?
I was kinda shocked to see Travis D'Arnaud that high. I know he is a legit prospect, but would you say you have a more aggressive ranking of him than most, or will we see other lists with him being a top 10 player?
Again, I don't look at other lists or particularly care about them. This list is mine, my opinions, my evaluations blended with opinions of a small number of trusted sources around the game.
How close was Drew Smyly to making the list?
Back-end starter. No consideration.
If Bundy were 6'4 would he be top 5? I know, if if were a skiff we'd all be sailing...
Best line I heard on him was from a senior FO guy who said something close to this: "If Dylan Bundy was 6'4" he'd be in an Opening Day rotation."
In hindsight, should the pirates regret choosing Taillon over Machado
That seems awfully strong, and awfully quick. Even if they get the lesser player, Taillon's not a stiff.
Meo as 10th in Dbacks system.Is that more about you thinking he has a long shot of reaching his upside or not believing his upside is all that high?
I loved him in the draft, but he's really had problems with LHB and his velo was only so-so in instructs.
im awed by the amount of work you put into this and wish something like this had existed when i was growing up. you have truly changed the way i read about baseball. im wondering what kept bryce brentz off the list and what you think of him as a prospect in terms of ceiling and probability in making the majors.
Thanks, Brandon. Age and contact concerns are the issues on Brentz. He's RF only and has to hit/get on base/have power to profile as a potential above-average regular or better. I do like him, but with him spending half the year at a level for which he was too old, I didn't feel comfortable ranking him higher than I did.
How close were Brewers farmhands Bradley and Thornburg to making the cut and could we see them in next years rankings?
Bradley is on the 'guys who just missed' list. Thornburg's a straight reliever for me, and I think I only had one pure reliever on the top 100 this year.
Is Andrelton Simmons a candidate to jump up the list next year, if he can maintain his OBP while jumping up to Double A this year or is his ceiling just not high enough?
He really needs to prove he's more than just an empty stick. If you don't walk or hit for power, it's hard to maintain a high average, because pitchers will just challenge you in the zone.
Couldn't help but notice how bad the farm systems in the NL East were. Atlanta led the pack at #16 but is falling quickly. Is it safe to say long term the Nats will be in the best shape, with the Marlins in the worst??
Long term the Nats are in better shape than any other team in that division. They have young talent in the majors, they have two impact guys coming, and they have money.
Does Tim Beckham have a chance to make it back on the top 100? For being the 2008 first overall, he has been a little disappointing.
I don't see him having that kind of impact, but he could develop into an average regular at SS, which would be a valuable asset, just not 1-1 valuable.
Keith, In the past you've had Jaff Decker ranked pretty high on your top 100, is the lack of batting average the reason that he dropped off the list? Thanks
It's an approach issue. It's fabulous that he can get into 2-0 and 3-1 counts. What he needs to do then is SWING THE FREAKING BAT.
Question on guys like Montero, Wilmer Flores, and others - why do teams keep a player *everyone* knows can't play a position there so long? I get giving them a shot, but if the whole industry knows someone can't play C, doesn't it make sense to see if they can handle 1B or LF as early as possible?
There is so much more value in having a guy catch than having him at 1b/dh, and those latter positions are relatively easy to learn (well, 1b is, or lf), that it makes sense to keep a guy behind the plate (or at shortstop or in CF) as long as possible. My only real concern would be a catcher getting plowed into by Reggie Golden or the likes of him.
In a year, could you see Taijuan Walker as the top pitching prosepect in baseball?
It's not impossible, but he'd probably have to pass at least Bundy and Bradley, and I don't see that.
Would you agree that Casey Kelly's pure stuff, i.e. velocity, has improved in the last couple of years even though his numbers have not been overwhelming?
That is absolutely true.
Would you expect to see D'Arnaud take the catchers job in Toronto this year?
That's up to the front office. He's going to knock over small buildings in Las Vegas, so the callup decision isn't going to be about offensive performance. He's better than JPA long-term, maybe better by the start of 2013.
Any consideration for Leonys Martin?
No. Don't like the swing.
Love the article! I've read a lot about Javier Baez outgrowing shortstop. How long to you give him at short before you think he'll stick? And if he moves, do you see him more likely at 2nd or 3rd? Thanks!
He has a nonzero chance to stay at short. I'd give him at least a full year at the position before making any kind of decision.
How close to the Cubs top 10 was Ronald Torreyes? Judging by his extremely low strikeout rate and high batting average, he seems to have a pretty good hit tool...is he a good candidate to jump up the list if he can prove his size won't hold him back at a higher level this year?
I don't think he has a star ceiling, but he could be a top ten guy in a year depending on trades/promotions. He's not just short, but he's slight. If I was about two inches taller, I'd look just like him, and I do not have a big-leaguer's physique.
Harper and Davey are confident he can break camp. Do you concur?
No. And I'm an unabashed Bryce Harper fan. He needs the AA reps to keep working on recognition of offspeed. I'm sure he's aware of this, too.
How much of a red flag should it be that Rhymer Liriano had to be sent down and repeat a level in order to produce?
He'd been overpromoted in the first place.
Do you credit Luhnow for the improvement in the Cards system, and should the Astros expect to be in the top 5 in 5 years?
Luhnow and his staff in St. Louis, yes. They'll have a lot of high picks in Houston to restock that system.
Please turn on "auto update". I am also the one who tweeted you a correction about prospect #8. Good day KLaw.
I'm asked this just about every week, but I have no control over it. The only thing I can set to 'auto-update' is the appearance of questions in my queue, which I always turn on when I start the chat. Sorry.
Hi Keith, thanks for taking our questions. I was surprised to see Perci Garner make your Phils' top ten. Is his stuff that good?
Stuff is good, athleticism is really good, and I always cut two-sport guys a little more slack on age. I will spoil tomorrow's sleepers column just this once by saying he's my Phillies candidate.
Why Pederson over Silverio on the Dodgers top 10 list? I know Silverio has some issues, but I thought you liked him OK when you saw him at the futures game last year?
Silverio's probably a 4th OF, chance to be a regular. Pederson's further away, chance to be an above-average regular or better.
Do you consider Cespedes like Darvish, not a prospect?
I didn't rank him or Soler because they're unsigned. Cespedes is borderline - he'll probably go to the minors, but at 27 (at least) he would be two or three years older than anyone else on the list (I think).
Austin Hedges: best defensive catching prospect since ______?
Since before I started doing this. I am already second-guessing myself for omitting him from the top 100.
Thoughts on the Braves starting Pastornicky over Simmons? Just more major league ready? Do you think Simmons could take the spot away down the road?
Simmons spent last year in the Carolina League and didn't walk or hit for any power. You want to promote him to the majors?
Interested that Dante Bichette Jr. is now ahead of Austin Romine of your Yankees prospect list. Is this a reassessment of Bichette since his signing, or is it more a sign that Romine is dropping?
Bichette made some changes to his swing and approach after signing that have me more optimistic. He's more balanced now, with a more solid base, and uses the whole field more, especially with two strikes. He used to be all clean-and-jerk all the time, and you can't hit like that in pro ball. I'm still not fully sold, but he's got a chance now that he didn't have with his pre-draft approach.
Great work Keith, thanks! What are your thoughts on NYY's Ravel Santana and how far off the list was he? Any recommendations for can't-miss restaurants in Chicago?
Serious leg injury threatens to wipe out some of his 2012, maybe much of it. Would have been on their top 10 had he been healthy.
Did Kolten Wong finish anywhere close?
No, lacks the upside for this list. Best case scenario is a 50, solid-average big leaguer.
Surprised to not see Gorski in your Mets Top 10, as I thought you had some nice things to say about him in the past. Did your opinion on him change or am I just mistaken?
Probably wasn't me. Fifth starter type, control, good changeup, fringe-average fastball.
Keith, the top 100 is a great read as always. Where would Buxton and Giolito fit into this list if eligible?
Somewhere in the 21-50 range. Would also see Appel and Marrero there, maybe Zunino (need to see him more) or a wild-card like Fried or Weickel (I really like Weickel).
I'll take that for Wong but I would have rather seen the Cards take Mahtook in that spot.
I agree wholeheartedly. Love Mahtook. Never should have fallen that far.
I see that Billy Beane signed an extension thru 2019. Maybe it's just me, but during his tenure his A's have won only one playoff series and now he's signed on until 2019? Is it because of Brad Pitt, or that he's a minority owner in the team?
It's because he hired Peter Brand, who figured out the formula for the baseball.
Surprised to hear Sammy Solis wasn't considerd at all given his improved velo in the AFL. Is his ceiling just not enough to crack the Top 100?
Ceiling probably isn't high enough anyway, but the question over his elbow sealed his fate.
Rank their likely career's Smoak, Alonoso and Singleton
Smoak (I still think there's more here, once he's healthy for a full season), Singleton, Alonso.
Fast forward one year, is Appel the #1 pick overall considering Houston's lack of pitching depth?
Fast forward four months, you mean? Right now, he's the #1 pick because he's the best player on the board. But this isn't Strasburg or Harper where we knew on February 9th they were the top guys.
KLaw - You are the man (side note). So you really prefer Bradley to Bauer?
I do. More upside to Bradley. Two risks with Bauer: Injury from overuse, and reliance on throwing that breaking ball in the dirt to get swings and misses.
The Orioles Guthrie to Colorado trade is... strange at best. What were they thinking in your opinion? Oh- and they are likely to sign Manny Ramirez too!!
At best, it's a lateral move. And it's probably a small step back.
how is "Rougned" Odor pronounced? what kind of upside does he have offensively
Doubles-power guy with chance to hit for a good average. Don't see big power there.
How often do you actually get to see these guys that you can actually rank the top 100 without completely talking out of your behind?
I've seen the majority of the guys on the list. I haven't counted this year's, but in past years I've been around 70/100, counting looks at guys before the draft. Living in Arizona helps.
Adams over Dillon Howard? A reliever over a starter? What is this world coming to?
Is Adams absolutely a reliever? He hits 98 every time out and holds his velocity. I don't think it's a given he's a reliever. It's just the most likely outcome, and putting a major-league ready reliever over a raw, promising 18-yo pitcher feels fine to me.
Hey Keith. I imagine this is a make-or-break year for Tyler Matzek. I heard he went back to his old mecahnics towards the end of last year. What do you expect from him moving forward, and does he still have #1 starter potential?
Looked terrible in instructs. Velo wasn't back. I really don't know what to tell you other than that I didn't give omitting him from my Rockies top ten a second thought.
Fantastic stuff Keith, always a great read. Why did Donovan Tate not make the Padres top 10?
Between injuries and suspensions, he's barely played, and I was never THAT crazy about him before it all.
You say in Vizcaion's case that you don't consider org handling of players, just talent. However, you dinged Dom Brown off of your under 25 list because you factored in org handling of him. Why the difference in views?
Past mishandling that has already affected a player's future development is a completely different variable.
Thoughts on one of the most debated guys from the 2011 draft: Dan Vogelbach?
Heavy D? Maybe if he gets to AA and is still productive and conditioned enough to play, we can talk.
I know it's still early but is there still hope for Stetson Allie or does he need to pick up a bat?
Hope as a reliever.
You have cooled on Teheran from last year, and you are sighting his curveball as the main reason. Maybe you can explain this to me, then...Johan Santana dominated a 5 year stretch with a good FB, great change-up and so-so slider that he didn't use much.So, why was Santana so successful with similar stuff as Teheran, yet Teheran seems to be falling? Is it that much different scouting for lefties than righties?Thanks!
Teheran doesn't have Santana's changeup. If he did, I'd feel differently.
If I remember correctly, you were pretty harsh on Michael Choice last year. Your writeup now speaks to some improvement and adjustment, but doesn't seem like every A's batting prospect suffers when they get there?
Still not crazy about him, but he did improve a little mechanically.
Keith, I was wondering if you could give me some insight as to what kept Daniel Norris off of your Jays top 10 list. I know that the Jays have incredible depth in their system, and especially in their young pitching prospects. Did the combination of the relatively high floor of a guy like McGuire and the lack of pro data on Norris as compared to Syndergaard/Nicollino keep him off? Or is Norris' upside just not that of a No. 2 starter?
Norris' velocity fluctuated from start to start more than you'd expect; he'll touch 95 one start, then top out at 90 or 91 the next. He needs a consistent breaking ball, and the Jays are working to get him to land online consistently - he had a bad habit of landing on the side of his foot.
If you are buying a lotto ticket - for ceiling only but considering positional value, who do you take, Bell or Lindor? Does it matter to you that Lindor is more than a full year younger than Bell?
Much easier to see Lindor becoming a star at SS than Bell becoming one in LF.
KLaw...what can you tell us about Pat Corbin from the DBacks? Prospects?
Potential #4 starter. Deception guy who has some feel and can move the ball around, locating to both sides. Doesn't have an out pitch.
When you write lottery ticket in a trade review what does it mean?
High-risk, high-reward. Might be an unfair term, because only morons play the lottery.
Is there not an option for us to be able to see the list of questions that are asked? WOuld make this a lot more fun!
I have over 950 already. It would be unreadable.
So does Taveras of the Cardinals get your vote for the oddest swing in the top 100? Remind you of anyone?
Yes on oddest swing. Only Harper has that kind of leverage/uphill thing going on.
What did you think of Tyler Greene out of the draft or early in his minor league career?
Extra infielder. Never thought much of his bat.
Love your stuff. As a Padres fan, wasn't keen on the Rizzo for Cashner trade. Do you think Cashner has a chance to be a starter?
Zero chance. Won't hold up.
Could Destin Hood be an average everyday LFer, or not enough bat?
I think so, maybe a little better. He's suffering from the high offensive standard in the corners. But I respect how much he's improved since high school.
Junior Lake good enough to be in Cubs top 10 within a year?
Only if someone teaches him how to play baseball.
Reason for drop in your opinion of Luis Heredia? Wasn't he top 50 in some type of preliminary list for you. Thanks.
Ian Kennedy, CJ Wilson, or Steven Strasburg, for 2012 alone.
Ignoring innings limits? Strasburg.
Admit it, I outperformed your assessment of me, by a lot.
Nope, you were pretty much what I said you'd be, both in the top 100 and when I predicted you'd win ROY last spring.
Thanks Klaw for the Top 100. If Rubby was still considered a prospect where would he have landed in the top 100?
He barely missed on innings. Top 40, at least. Tough to say given that he's hurt.
just saw the indians purchased canzler from the rays he was triple a mvp. my question is why would the rays give this guy to us for money? is he mlb ready?
Because he's not very good. No position. Bat off the bench, maybe.
Would Ben Revere be a good comparison for Anthony Gose?
No, Gose has more power.
Do all three of the Braves pitchers in your top 10, surpass me in the rotation?
I'd take you over Delgado.
What separates Daniel Corcino from a guy like Yordano Ventura.?
Secondary stuff, command, and feel. Other than that they're identical.
Wait, what prospect summary contains the Archer reference? The suspense is killing me!
Wait, I had something for this...
Can you explain your term high floor as it differs from high ceiling?
Floor = worst-case scenario.
Since you believe that Lavarnway has the bat but not the defense and Middlebrooks has the D but not the consistent bat, which would you rather have in you org?
Can we merge them? Middlebrooks.
Garrett Richards had a tough time when he was called up this year. Given the fact that the Angel's staff is for the most part set, would he be a bullpen candidate this year?
I'd say yes, since it's a good way to break a guy in, and sending him to the PCL isn't such a great idea ... but he needs to work on a third pitch and in short relief that's hard to do.
For the laymen, what does it take to lose ROY eligibility? Certain number of at bats or appearance for a pitcher?
130 AB, 50 IP, or 45 days on the active 25-man roster in the majors (so September days don't count).
Is using pre-prepared food a death sentence on Top Chef? More so than too much/too little seasoning, this seems to be the one thing that chefs just shouldn't do.
Yep. And they keep doing it. If I were a chef trying out for the show, I'd go back and watch every past season and take notes on what got contestants whacked.
how can a basic 3 point shot be the number 1 play.Auston didnt do anything special. It may have won the game but was still very basic shot.
I agree completely.
I agree with your point about keeping Rendon away from 2B to avoid injury, but what is your best-guess for where the two end up if the Nats extend Zimmerman?
Seems more likely they either deal Rendon or move Zimmerman to first down the road to keep him healthy. But I really don't know their plans.
Your very high on Hak Ju Lee, how would you compare his defense to current Rays SS Reid Brignac.
Better all around.
Did you ever read The Hunger Games? Any chance to do so before the movies?
No, no interest.
That was totally ninja
I don't know how I'm going to type my answers with this giant ... uh, never mind.
You never had Neil Walker in your top 100 but he seems to be a sold major leaguer with some upside. What didn't you like in the past?
What upside? Poor defender at 2b without much power or OBP skills.
Alex White also just over the innings limit ... would he make the Top 100 and if so, where?
In the final 20 or so. Fastball/splitter guy, no real breaking ball, not sure if he can stay a starter.
Thoughts on Brandon Nimmo outside the top 100.. ?
Way too raw for that list.
Does Chris Reed crack the top 100 next year? He's an intriguing project, especially as a starter. I'm wondering what you'd like to see from him.
If he works out as a starter - and I think he will, although it's a risk - then yes, good chance he does. I really like his arm and the fact that he wasn't overused in college.
dont wanna answer my question.
You realize this is a baseball (and food) chat, I have no idea what you're talking about, right?
How long will it take for the Chicago White Sox to re-build their system?
Looks like a three-year project, at least, if they're willing to deal more major league assets for prospects (and ask for more than they got for Santos).
Thoughts on Jason Kipnis this year? You had him ranked 56 a year ago, btw.
League-average 2b this year, chance to be more in the next 2-3 years, makes an All-Star team or two.
Can you post a link to a comprehensive list of your favorite Phoenix/Tempe restaurants?
All the reviews are here: http://meadowparty.com/blog/?tag=phoenix
How can you rank Starling so high when he hasn't faced any kind of advanced pitching yet? He's as much of an athlete as Marisnick to me.
Sounds like you've never seen him, then.
Who was the most impressive pitching prospect you ever evaluated?
How deep will your sleeper list go tomorrow? Is it all guys that didn't make their team's top 10, or do they just have to have missed the top 111?
One per team, occasionally two. No names from the top 100 or the 11 who missed.
When do you expect to see Arenado break into the bigs? Before or after Sept 1?
I see him as a 2013 regular.
What's worse - the White Sox farm system or Top Chef this year? The Pee Wee Herman challenge was the worst episode of television I have ever watched. Here's a great idea, let's judge some of the best chefs in the country by which ones don't fall of a ridiculous looking bike while carrying food!
I think that analogy is more insulting to Top Chef.
Do see yourself working for a team someday as a GM or Scout?
I would never say never, but I have no expectations of returning to a front office. I suppose that became clearer last month.
Wasn't Neil Walker originally a catcher...and not a very good one at that?
Then he was a third baseman, and not very good at that either.
Any chance the Astros don't draft Mark Appel #1 overall in June (barring injury)?
Substantial chance, IMO.
What is Eric Hosmer's ceiling?
Bogaerts ranking a little low I think...I thought this was based mostly on upside?
Probability counts too. It's not strictly upside.
After really digging into this did any farm systems surprise you in a good or bad way??
Rockies came out better than I expected. Dodgers too. I love that collection of arms, and now it's close enough to potentially impact the ML club this year.
Not a basketball chat and I know you don't follow basketball, but how proud are you of fellow alum Jeremy Lin? Also - Who projects better? Alex Presley or JD Martinez?
I don't know who that is. Presley and Martinez are both extra OFs for me.
IS Devin Marrero ranked so high because he's likely to stay at SS? Seems less intriguing to me than any SS that went in the first round the past few years.
True SS who can hit. Lacks power, not a runner. Best college position player in a terrible crop of college position players.
Bryce Harper's an every day player by...
Opening Day, 2013.
What is the ceiling for Mason Williams. You seem high on him. Is Curtis Granderson the best case scenario or could he be better?
I think you're in the ballpark.
O's fan here. Talk me off my ledge and give me hope for the future Keith! Anything to look forward to other than Bundy or Machado?
Schoop, Bridwell, Delmonico. It's not Houston, where there's just very little talent. But you've got the worst owner in the game, and a GM operating out of a playbook so old it's written on papyrus.
What is your view of Terdoslavich with Atlanta? Do you think he can play 3B?
He can't. Bench guy. It's funny - Atlanta's lack of solid position-player prospects is causing (some) fans to overrate the position-player prospects they do have, including him and Simmons.
Thoughts regarding KBA banning Baltimore because of Kim Seong-min? Did Baltimore really mess up or is this not a big deal?
They messed up. MLB values its relationships with KBO and NPB, so I imagine they're really unhappy. All this for a non-prospect, too.
Does starling have Matt Kemp or Josh Hamilton ceiling?
Ackely or Kipnis, this year and over their careers?
Promotions (Santana, Kipnis, Chisenhall), poor returns (Lee and Sabathia deals) and weak drafts have crushed the Indians system. What players could really help this system with bounceback years? Knapp, Weglarz, Aviles?
I'd be looking more toward Howard, Ronny Rodriguez, and the guy I tabbed as their sleeper prospect for 2013.
You mentioned Simmons being overrated; do you think he can't play shortstop for the Braves in particular, or that he can't play shortstop for anybody?
Oh, he can play shortstop. I don't buy that bat yet.
Saw Cardona in your top 10 for the Jays. Can you give a scouting report on him? Love that the Jays have been going heavy in Latin America the last couple of years.
Sits 90-94 already, breaking ball has the shape but not the consistency, really projectable. Wouldn't be surprised if he hit 100 at some point.
Do expect Gilmartin to have a ceiling higher, equal, or lower than Minor? When can he expect to make an impact? 2013? By next season what do you expect their rotation to be?
Molina seems like an ace, that splitter is nasty, why so low?
Nestor? More like a 4-5, or even a reliever. Lacks a breaking ball, has control but not command.
Couple more 2011 draft questions: Do you like Matt Dean who the Jays nabbed? And which college bat do you like more: Alex Dickerson or Aaron Westlake?
I liked Dean as an underclassman, but he disappointed his senior summer/spring. Good pick but low probability. Dickerson over Westlake.
Thanks for the rankings. I was surprised the Nats were 20 +/-, which is fine. I respect your opinion. That being said wouldn't you rather have the Nats farm right now over San Diego just based on Harper and Rendon (high ceilings). The seem like they could have a bigger impact for the Nats based on San Diego's top 10 combined, which of course I know nothing about...
No, I wouldn't. The dropoff after the Nats' first two is substantial, and it continues sliding after that.
The Astros got Jarred Cosart last year in the Pence trade, I saw his K rate was about 6.6 per start which is pretty odd considering is stuff. What's going on? Does that affect his future?
I explained the issue in the capsule on him today.
Great job on the list. How long did it take you to write it? You include an impressive amount of material on each prospect.
It's about three weeks of full-time researching (calling) and writing, but that doesn't include what I do each season seeing players.
Is there any hope for Matt Purke?
Sure, if he can get healthy and find an arm slot that works for him.
Thanks for all the questions and the kind words on this year's top 100. Sleepers piece tomorrow, top prospects just for 2012 impact on Monday.