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February 13, 4:00 PM ET
Chat with Joe Lunardi

Joe Lunardi
  (4:10 PM)

Better late than never, sorry. It's a hectic day and I only have about 20 minutes. So let's go "rapid fire" the whole time...

joseph mackenwood (olive branch )

how far can florida make it.

Joe Lunardi
  (4:11 PM)

Felt a lot better about the Gators before their beat-down at Rupp. Should be at least a Sweet 16 team regardless.

jr (Vegas)

Joe,Please offer me your personal guarantee that UNLV will play its first two tournament games in either Albuquerque, NM (MWC turf) or Portland, OR (Mike Moser's home town).Thanks!!!

Joe Lunardi
  (4:12 PM)

Likely.

Mike (Columbus)

Joe,How do you predict the First Four seedings? How do you know if they should be an 11,12 or 13 seed?

Joe Lunardi
  (4:12 PM)

Depends on where the at-large pool ends and the one-bid conference winners begin. Also an issue of avoiding conference rematches wherever possible.

Shawn Bradley Guy (Minneapolis, MN)

With how weak the current bubble status is right now, do you see a B1G team sneaking into the tournament with a 8-10 conference record being more than realistic now?

Joe Lunardi
  (4:13 PM)

Very realistic.

Scott (Baltimore, MD)

Joe,For bracket purposes, the auto-bid tiebreakers appear to be head-to-head, followed by RPI. At the end of the regular season do you subscribe to conference tournament seedings at all? So with Iona/Loyola having split the series, if Loyola earns the MAAC's #1 seed will they grace bracketology for at least a few hours? Say it be so!Thank you.

Joe Lunardi
  (4:13 PM)

Yes...

Matt (Dallas)

I feel like NC State and Northwestern are pretty similar resume-wise, can you explain your choice of State over NW?

Joe Lunardi
  (4:14 PM)

Came down to conference records (7-3 vs. 5-7), plus NC State being better on the road to date.

Proud Mercer Bear (Macon, GA)

Joe, I love you. I am SO HAPPY you finally picked Mercer over Belmont for your bracket. However, what finally made you think that the Bears will win the automatic berth into the tourney over the Bruins?

Joe Lunardi
  (4:15 PM)

I don't think that. Mercer is leading the conference by a half-game, hence the Bears get today's auto-bid.

Marko Zubac (Long Beach, California )

What do you think of Long Beach St. chances of making the NCAA tournament if they don't win the Big West conference tournament?

Joe Lunardi
  (4:15 PM)

Depends on when (and to whom) they lose, but their chances are in the 50/50 range. A win at Creighton would go a LONG way...

Dan (Tucson)

If the Arizona Wildcats can win out the rest of the season including the Pac-12 tourney, hypothetically, what is the highest seed the Wildcats could attain in the real tourney?

Joe Lunardi
  (4:16 PM)

They would be a single-digit seed, that's for sure (maybe 6-7??).

j (michigan)

what does michigan need to do to get a 2 seed

Joe Lunardi
  (4:16 PM)

Highly unlikely.

peejay (North Carolina)

What big east team would get into the tournament with a 8-10 record and assume they win at least 2 games in the Big East Tournament?

Joe Lunardi
  (4:16 PM)

UConn.

Jeff (Chicago)

Hey Joe, Bracket Buster question here. The Bracket Buster series no doubt provides good games, but some of the games are high risk/no reward. Wichita State's game this weekend against Davidson is a perfect example. A win does nothing, a loss will hurt them. It seems Bracket Busters does a good job of hurting half of the mid-major contenders.Wouldn't it closer to a true bracket buster if these games pitted mid-majors against the middling power conference teams? For example, Creighton vs. North Carolina St., St. Mary's vs Cincinnati or Long Beach St. vs Arizona? I know that the power conferences would never agree to this though.

Joe Lunardi
  (4:17 PM)

Never gonna' happen, you're right!

Chris L (Westfield New Jersey)

I am a die hard Uconn fan, its been a disappointing year. My eyes bulged out of my head when I saw you had them in the tournament and as a 9 seed!!!! Please Explain.

Joe Lunardi
  (4:17 PM)

Bulging good or bulging bad?!?

Chris B (Newtown, PA)

Hey Joe, I was wondering if Temple wins out and the A-10 title I was thinking they good get as high as a 4 seed what do you think?

Joe Lunardi
  (4:18 PM)

Not inconceivable, but the Committee wasn't kind in terms of A-10 seeding last year.

Brian (Oak Creek)

If GM, VCU, and/or Drexel tie for the conf title and meet in the tourney championship is the CAA a two bid league?

Joe Lunardi
  (4:18 PM)

Doubtful. Who did anyone beat outside of the CAA??

Micalchi (Michigan)

Who has a better chance at the tourney--Iowa or Northwestern?

Joe Lunardi
  (4:19 PM)

Northwestern.

Dusty (St. Louis)

You have now had KU as a #1 seed two different times. Never thought that would happen before the year started. Bill Self for COY.

Joe Lunardi
  (4:19 PM)

Hard to argue, Dusty.

Andrew (Chicago)

Are indices looked at when the selection committee is seeding the teams? Are new indices like the BMI being used? Which index is most impactful on their decisions?

Joe Lunardi
  (4:19 PM)

Every voter is different, but RPI is the leader.

Don (Louisville)

If Louisville upsets Syracuse tonight what will that do to their seeding? What do you believe the ceiling to be for Louisville on Selection Sunday?

Joe Lunardi
  (4:20 PM)

I think Louisville WILL win tonight. I'll Tweet a new seed if and when...

Bryce (Nashville)

After Kentucky's preformance on from last week do you think they are starting to seperate themselves from most everyone excpet Cuse. THe truly do look near unbeatble at the moment..

Joe Lunardi
  (4:20 PM)

Pretty mighty, that's for sure. I expect UK to be the No. 1 overall seed a month from now.

Matt [via mobile]

How,uh would Memphis have to fall apart to not get an at-large bid (assuming they don't win CUSA tourney)?

Joe Lunardi
  (4:21 PM)

At least 2-3 "bad" losses from this point...

Alex (Austin)

Can't believe we went from arguing if the ACC could get 3 teams to now they've got 6. How did we get here?

Joe Lunardi
  (4:21 PM)

Thank Miami-FL.

Frank (Baudette, MN)

Joe, I'm suprised that you still have my Gophers in the tournament! What is the reasoning behind that?

Joe Lunardi
  (4:21 PM)

Look at the teams "behind" them and you'll have an answer!

Dan (Tampa)

If Syracuse loses one or two games against Louisville does it stand a chance of not ending up in the Boston bracket?

Joe Lunardi
  (4:22 PM)

Syracuse will be in Boston almost certainly.

Louie (Albuquerque)

Hi Joe, Are the next 2 games (SDSU, UNLV) both must win games for the Lobos, or can they lose 1 or both games and still be on your bracket next week?? Thanks

Joe Lunardi
  (4:22 PM)

A split is fine...

Eric (Los Angeles)

Joe, I know it's hard to pull the 'no respect' card for the Pac-12, but it looks like 14 of 15 non-conference losses suffered by the top 4 (Cal-UW-Oregon-Arizona) were to teams in your bracket. Could it be that it's not as terrible of a conference as everyone believes?

Joe Lunardi
  (4:23 PM)

I don't think the Pac-10 is terrible, just average. On the level of A-10 or Missouri Valley.

Michael (Evansville, IN)

Hey Joe,Using all of the other routinely discueesd metrics besides the RPI (Pomeroy, LMRC, Sagarin, and ESPN's new BPI) Belmont is a virtual lock for the NCAA tourney. Their avg. of the 4 metrics is 27 (for example Pomeroy ranks them 24) meaning they'd be about a 7 seed. In your own mind (not what you think the selection committe WILL do), do you think that these ratings SHOULD matter. Do you think that some of the individual committee members look beyond just the RPI and the "eye test" and actually take some of these other metrics into consideration?

Joe Lunardi
  (4:24 PM)

Again, every voter is on his/her own priorities. Mine is closer to your approach.

Tom (Troy, MI)

Is Mizzou good enough to win it all? We'll more than likely be out-rebounded and "out-talented" by some of the Big Boys...but I don't think anybody in the country plays better as a "team."Your thoughts.

Joe Lunardi
  (4:24 PM)

Wouldn't bet my house on Mizzou, sorry.

Jay (Parkland)

if miami loses to UNC and FSU, but beats MD, NCST, WF, and BC do they get in? would be 10-6 in coference

Joe Lunardi
  (4:25 PM)

Would need another "scalp" in ACC tourney to be safe.

Chris (Virgina)

Kansas a 1 seed over Duke? Explain. Duke beat Kansas and has a better record and RPI

Joe Lunardi
  (4:26 PM)

I could have gone either way.

Lance (Chicago)

Would a win at Duke on March 3 put North Carolina back on the #1 seed line?

Joe Lunardi
  (4:26 PM)

Not necessarily. Too many other teams in play to guarantee that.

Tommy (St. Louis)

Hey Joe, you do an awesome job. At what point does Creighton become a bubble team?

Joe Lunardi
  (4:27 PM)

Not another three-game losing streak.

Matt (Winston Salem)

How can you possibly have 9 Big East team? You live in that region?

Joe Lunardi
  (4:28 PM)

The league starts with 16 teams, remember. Proportionally, they are far weaker than Big Ten, etc.

Joe Lunardi
  (4:28 PM)

Three more and a quick "out" for me...

Andrew (Chicago)

Does Michigan State need to win both the Big10 tournament and the Big10 conference for a 1 seed?

Joe Lunardi
  (4:28 PM)

Probably.

SUCH (K)

What does Xavier have to do to make it in?

Joe Lunardi
  (4:29 PM)

Might be the biggest question in college basketball right now. Reach the A-10 final would be my first response...

Kyle (Dallas)

If Murray St wins out, what seed do you see them as?

Joe Lunardi
  (4:30 PM)

A five or six.

Joe Lunardi
  (4:30 PM)

Sorry gang, for today's short chat. Will go for the full hour next week.