Aloha everyone. Thanks for coming to the chat today. Sorry we are starting a few minutes late. We had a few tech issues. Should be good now. Going to do NBA Draft the full hour today. So let's roll ...
If the Bobcats slip to the second or third pick in the draft who is their pick? Is there another franchise changer in this draft?
That's a nightmare scenario for them. They desperately need star power and there's a pretty large drop off after Davis. Don't get me wrong the next batch of players -- MKG, Brad Beal, Andre Drummond and Thomas Robinson -- are all very good. But not sure any of them turn around a team singlehandedly.
Beal or MKG? Who's going to be better?
I think that's a question teams like the Wizards, for example, are going to be looking very hard at. Beal is the better offensive player. MKG the better defensive player. MKG also seems to have some coveted intangibles that give him the slight edge. They are No. 2 (MKG) and No. 3 (Beal) on our Big Board and it's very, very close.
What's the highest Austin Rivers could go? Who might surprise and take him earlier than expected?
Highest? Some GMs LOVE him. Like Top 5 to 7 love him. Potential teams in the mid to late lottery to look at are: Blazers, Cavs, Jazz and Suns.
Who in this draft, besides "The Brow", matches best with Kyrie?
Cavs need help on the wings. I think they'd be thrilled if they landed MKG, Beal or even Harrison Barnes. Last year they were praying Barnes stayed in the draft and would've likely selected him with the No. 4 pick had he declared.
Where will Fab Melo go? How much did being suspended (twice) hurt his draft stock?
Size always rises as we get closer to the draft and the Fab Melo bandwagon is already starting to fill up. He jumped up to No. 21 in our last Mock Draft and could go as high as No. 14 to Utah.
Any teams willing to gamble on Jared Cunningham in the late first round, early second?
Maybe. He's a terrific athlete ... just wish he could shoot it.
Why is scott machado ranked so low when he arguably posseses similar abilities as kendall marshall?
For most scouts North Carolina > Iona.
Which teams could you see selecting Perry Jones before Sullinger?
Tough one. Jones has way more upside. Sullinger should be a solid as a rebounder. Jones is the sort of player that can make you GM of the Year or get you fired. But at a certain point, the reward outweighs the risk for him. Personally, after the Top 5 guys were off the board, I'd grab him.
Why are there so few international prospects in this year's draft?
Just a down year. Though next year isn't much better. These things are fairly cyclical. HS class of 2012 isn't particularly great either. I foresee a shaky draft coming in 2013. After the Top 5 or 6 it get's very risky.
What is keeping Tyshawn Taylor so low on draft boards? Am I the only one who sees a potential starter in the NBA with length, athleticism and one of the quickest first steps in the draft?
Turnovers. Really nasty ones. Incredibly bad shot selection. Inconsistency. Streaky shooter. He projects as a back-up PG in the NBA and usually coaches want players who are just steady and can hold down the fort in the rotation. Tyshawn is always feast or famine. Sometimes from minute to minute.
With the North Carolina > Iona argument.....isnt North Carolina > Weber State also true?
Yes. But Damian Lillard was one of the five best players in the country this year. Ranked No. 2 in college PER. Teams scouted him pretty heavily this year. Most are comfortable that he's got a more complete game ... but not everyone. Some teams have Marshall ranked ahead of him. Really depends on what you want.
Obviously Anthony Davis is the top player in this draft, but is he really a franchise changer?
Im finally reading that some GM's are saying what I've been saying about Perry Jones III he's a 3 and been playing out of position for 2 yrs my question is him on the Cavs how's he fit? I think PJ3 n Kyrie on the break is dangerous!
I think the Cavs would take Harrison Barnes over PJIII right now. But would love to see those two workout. PJ III is bigger and a better athlete. Barnes is a much better shooter. That may tip the scales Barnes' direction.
Q. Miller, is he staying or going? Where might he be frafted at?
He's staying in school and I think it's a great decision. He was ranked No. 16 in our 2012 Big Board. But he's No. 6 in our 2013 Big Board and could move up with a great sophomore season.
So coming back to the Lillard Marshall debate, Would Portland most likely prefer Lillard due to his abilities to score better than Marshall?
I think it's a debate. Very different players. Depends on your system and the personnel you have around them. I think Lillard would have the slight edge in Portland. But most teams really have them as 1a and 1b. I've had Lillard projected to the Jazz for a while, but starting to get the feeling Jazz may feel Marshall a better fit for their system.
What's up with the lack of love for Tyler Zeller?? As a true 7-footer, he seems like an underrated prospect.... Senior bias?
He's a Top 10 pick. Not sure that qualifies as a lack of love.
Thoughts on CJ Leslie... Does he leave? And if so, how does he project in the NBA?
Not sure. He's a bubble first rounder but I bet he'd squeak in based on his athletic profile. Lots and lots of upside there and he improved as a sophomore. Would love to see him go back and be special next year, however.
you speak so highly of what PJ3 could be. what will put him over the top? it can't just be motor...
A coach who understands how the kid sees himself. He thinks he's a wing -- not a big. A coach that's willing to play him that way (someone like Mike D'Antoni) might really get rewarded.
You've got Miller at 6 on the 2013 big board who are the top 5?
1. Nerlens Noel 2. Shabazz Muhammad 3. Cody Zeller 4. James Michael McAdoo 5. Steven Adams. Order might change depending on where Noel and Muhammad decide to go today. They're announcing their decisions on ESPNU at 7:30. If they go to Kentucky, they're staying right there. However if Noel ends up at Georgetown or Muhammad at UCLA, might have to rethink it a bit. Those teams typically don't showcase young players quite as well.
Since you mentioned your 2013 Big board I have a question about Isaiah Austin. If he were an international player with the exact same skill set, wouldn't he be a lock top 3 pick?
Probably. He's No. 7 on our Big Board by the way. I think scouts have a lot of issues with the way Baylor develops their young players right now. I think that's part of the issue for both Austin and Miller.
Chad what's your gut feeling on where Noel and Muhammad end up?
I have NO knowledge so this is a total guess: I think they both end up at Kentucky. I know there's a feeling that they don't want to be directly compared to Anthony Davis and MKG. But no coach in college basketball puts their kids in a better position to showcase their NBA potential than Coach Cal. If the NBA is their goal (and a national championship as freshmen) he gives them their best shot.
I did some research MKG wont be 19 until September does that means that he cant be eligible for this year draft?
No. Rule is you have turn 19 by 12/31/2012. You don't have to be 19 when you are drafted, just by the end of your draft year.
Who do you see being a sleeper in this draft?
Probably Dion Waiters. We have him ranked No. 21 on our Big Board but I get the feeling that scouts like him more than they let on. If he does OK in interviews, I wouldn't be surprised to see him land in the lottery.
Could Alex Young jump into first round with good showing at Portsmith, kinda like George Hill did at the Orlando camp back in 08'?
I do. I actually think he's the highest ranked prospect at the draft camp. He'll have to play well, but teams want to like him. All he needs to do is play well enough to get to the Chicago pre-draft camp. He's capable of that.
Who in the draft is most high risk/high reward?
Andre Drummond and Perry Jones.
What's your thoughts on Arnett Moultrie?
I watched him play in Vegas last summer and was really impressed. I didn't love how Mississippi State played this year, but I've been watching some tape on him the last few weeks and I'm starting to think we may have him underrated. Great size, terrific athlete, has a little perimeter game. Really rebounded this year. Typically guys like that are lottery picks. A few scouts agree with me and I've moved him up into our Top 20. But as workouts begin, I could see him making another big leap up the board.
How do you see Sullinger panning out in the NBA? Which team(s) can he potentially land with?
I know people have strong feelings on him one way or the other. I'm sort of agnostic. I think he could, for sure, be a Glen Davis sort of player in the NBA. But he could be better than that if he stays in shape and rebounds the way he's been doing in college. I don't think he's Kevin Love or anything close to that. But after the first five picks, what you're looking for are starters/rotation players. He can do that.
Knowing what you know now, where would Valanciunas rank in this draft?
Do you see A. Davis playing SF in nba?
I don't. But I do know a few scouts who do. Most likely he's a four.
What team is the best fit for Anthony Davis?
Bobcats for sure. Would love to see him on Detroit. Would make them a playoff team in year one. He's the perfect compliment for Greg Monroe.
Who do you see falling in this year's draft like MarShon Brooks? Could any of the top 15 guys drop to around 25-30 and be there for a contender?
Hindsight isn't always 20-20. Marshon Brooks didn't fall. When I went to watch him workout in Chicago last year, he was in the 30s on our Big Board and many other services didn't have him ranked at all. He worked his way up in the draft. Yes, we had him at No. 15 on our Big Board, but we had him much higher than most.
Do you see any similarities between derrick favors and davis?
No. More like Derrick Favors = Andre Drummond. I think it's better comp.
Chad, I still havent hired a GM....do you want to run the draft for us?
Yes, please. But I think it might be awkward to have two Chads.
If Nickola Mirotic were in this draft and was committed to coming over next year, where would he fall?
Top 10 for sure. Maybe higher.
Do you see wroten rising as the draft approaches? Thin crop of PGs, and you cant deny his talent. Id wager he'll shine in workouts too.
Tough one. He's personally my favorite PG of the group, but he comes with significant risks. He can't shoot. Shot is totally broken. He's wild. Not sure he'll lead. If he gets it together, the sky is the limit for him. But a big if.
Watched the Hoop Summit and the lack of US talent was startling!!!Next years draft is the weakest since....
Yeah it was a bit startling when the best kid on the floor was a high sophomore from Canada. Noel and Muhammad both have the chance to be really good. But after that the talent is much iffier. I've heard scouts say there may be only 2 or 3 NBA players in this high school class. I disagree. I think there might be closer to 10. But great NBA players? 2 to 4 sounds about right. I think we have to give the 2013 draft time before we declare it anything. Every year, a few players rise.
Which player, in your opinion, is making the biggest mistake by declaring for this year's draft?
Marquis Teague if he declares. When I started putting together my 2013 Big Board, I ran out of players I really liked after No. 7. I think I'd probably slot Teague at No. 8 in 2013. If he declares this year, he's somewhere in the 20s. That's a big enough gap that I'd go back to school.
Thomas Robinson didn't seem to play great defense this season. Do you think that was by design to keep him on the court? And if so, do you think he's capable of playing solid defense in the NBA?
I do. KU had no depth. They couldn't afford to lose him to foul trouble. But defense is the area of the game where Robinson needs the most work and might be why Andre Drummond goes ahead of him. Drummond was actually a pretty effective defensive player as a freshman and his size and athleticism should help him translate that at the next level.
Who does UCLA signee Kyle Anderson remind you of in the NBA and where will he go in next years draft?
One of the most unique players I've ever seen. Will be tough for NBA scouts because there's not perfect comp for him. Shaun Livingston was a 6-7 PG ... Anderson is bigger than that but really plays like a point. If he were a better athlete, he'd be No. 3 on our Big Board. But his slo mo game, and the fact that he's going to UCLA, which always makes evaluating guys a little more difficult, keep him lower on our Big Board. He's No. 14 in 2013 right now.
Gotta run everyone. We'll do this again next week. Enjoy our updated Mock Draft 3.0 and Top 100 ...