Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
Is the NFL Going to Cancel the Pro Bowl? If So I am Glad Because I think that the Pro Bowl Stinks.
It is this type of justifiable sentiment that is causing the NFL to likely cancel the Pro Bowl.
Megatron = Madden CoverMike Wallace = Unwanted Free AgentKC Joyner = Wrong
That's one equation, although I have to say I was glad to see Megatron get the Madden cover.
KC, the probablility of the Vikings successfully trading down from their #3 draft pick (in your opinion) is _________________?
70 percent chance they get to trade down.
Since when does the Madden cover mean anything on a football field (other than injuries)?
Kalil is going to be a Viking right KC? They are just trying to create a buzz since the first two picks are locked in.
Sorry for the lull there - Internet connection froze up.
I'm not sold that Kalil will be a Viking. The odds look to be pretty good that Minnesota will be able to get extra value out of that pick.
Is Coby Fleener's lack of blocking ability as big of an issue as it's made out to be? How is Dwayne Allen as a blocker?
Allen is a much better blocker than Fleener, but ponder this - how much of an impediment is Jimmy Graham's or Rob Gronkowski's blocking? It can't be much because even if they were bad blockers, their flex receiving value is so great it more than nullifies that weakness. Fleener should be thought of in the same way.
Rumors of Pats trading with Seattle to move up to 12 - who would be the likely target? Brockers? Barron?
It would be hard to see them going after Barron since it would require moving Chancellor somewhere else on that D.
I have a long running debate I need the Scientist to weigh in on please. If each (yes in a hypothetical world) were Probowlers and HOF'ers which is the best player for Seattel at #12; Decastro, Coples, Keuchley, Kirpatrick?
My personal selection would be Decastro.
by 9 tonight how many Colts and Redskins fans total will be watching the draft?
Well, my dental hygienist (who is big Redskins fan and is thrilled they will drafting RG3) is having a draft party and won't be shutting that down until after the draft is over, so at least one Skins fan will be watching.
KC, probability JAX trades down from 7 to about the middle of the draft and take either C. Jones or Gilmore???
It would be great for the Jaguars to trade down. Getting Gilmore would be great but I'll throw a name out there that they should be going after - Brandon Weeden. I just ran some of the Jaguars numbers for the TFS 2012 Fantasy Football Draft Guide and was absolutely amazed at how bad their QB totals were.
Not saying they will draft Weeden but there are multiple reasons to think they need a QB upgrade.
Burfict failed the combine drug test, safe to say his career is over?
His draft status is certainly over. Some team will likely give him a FA shot in camp as long as he stays out of trouble between now and then.
Should the Falcons make a play for Osi ?
That team is still banking on a short-term Super Bowl run, so from that perspective they should.
Who does Trent Richardson remind you of?
Sorry but who is Chancellor?
Kam Chancellor, the Seahawks starting strong safety.
I've always thought you overvalued Mike Wallace, but nobody was willing to make an offer? whats up with that?
That has more to do with Wallace's reported contract demands than it did the first-round draft pick cost to get him. Wait until next year - if the Steelers don't franchise him, Wallace will have a dozen teams aiming to sign him.
Why do you think Cedric Benson is still a FA?
The 6.0 GBYPA he posted last year (which is a mediocre total in that metric) is a big part of it. He's just not a gamebreaking RB.
With all the talk about Tannerhill and Weeden...would it make more sense for a team to maybe trade a 3rd this year and a 2nd next year for a Ryan Mallette? Where would Mattet have gone if we was in this years draft?thanks
Mallett's drop last year wasn't based on his on-field performance, as he played quite well in his last collegiate season. He probably would have been picked around the same spot this year, as the QB pool in the 2012 draft is fairly deep.
Could you see the Jets trading up to get Trent Richardson?
Probably not. The cost will be too high. Plus, they don't need more power running. What they need is a vertical WR and the draft has a lot of those.
I've asked before but could you remind me what GBYPA stands for?
It stands for good blocking yards per attempt. It measures how productive a running back is when he is given good blocking.
Do you think the phins pull the trigger on Tannehill, trade down, or take the best DE available?
Tannehill. The owner wants to make some type of draft day splash and Tannehill is the only pick they can make who will do that.
Jets seem pretty high on Michael Floyd. What am I missing here?
If they get the Floyd from a couple of years ago, it would be a good move. Problem is the 2011 Floyd played quite poorly, and it wasn't all because of the ND scheme or quarterback play.
What does your analysis say about the top 4-5 WR's? Is Blackmon that much better than the rest? Are the guys expected to go in the second round that much worse?
I wrote an article about the top 10 WR prospects a couple of weeks back and Blackmon actually ranked tied for 6th in that ranking. He's a very good bell cow WR but not a Julio Jones or A.J. Green.
Bills stay at 10? Who do you think they take?
I'd bet the Bills trade up to 3 to get Kalil.
Do you think the Patriots will move Devin McCourty back to cornerback or keep him at safety?
The guess would be cornerback but he's struggled so much there that if they can find a better CB option, safety is in his future.
Follow up to Mallete question...after a year playing along side Brady, would he be worth a 1st round trade offer? Much less risk than most QB's coming out this year and I assume just as talentedThanks Again
I had Mallett rated quite high last year, so from one sense he is worth that type of pick. Having said that, a team is probably not likely to pay that kind of price for another team's backup QB.
what are you evaluations of prospects based on? Metrics? Eyeballs? both?
That particular review was based on metrics, speed, size, and age. Having said that, I did personally break down every play for all of those wideouts and the metric eye also thought there were question marks surrounding Blackmon.
Give me a day 2 or 3 reciever that is way underrated.
Jeff Fuller. He torched Patrick Peterson in the 2011 Cotton Bowl. He had a bad 2011 season but the physical talent is there and if he gets with the right coaching staff, Fuller could be a very productive pro.
Read today on the Boston Globe - McCourty is going to play Safety next year
It makes sense in that he played so poorly at CB. Can't keep a double-digit YPA CB in the lineup for very long.
Bruce Irvin for the Raiders? Should they try to take Burfict in the 7th?
Let's hope the Raiders are through taking longshot chances on talented players with huge intangibles issues. They should skip both of those guys.
Any chance that we could see another running back go in the first round?
Probably not, but the RB to watch out for is LaMichael James. He has his share of intangibles/durability issues but there are many reasons to think he could be another Darren Sproles.
My apologies if you did an Insider piece on this but after Fleener, who would be your next top four TEs in this draft?
I covered the top three tight ends in the Insider articles. Fleener was tops, Charles second and Allen a distant third.
Browns take Richardson, Hill or Wright, and then trade a couple of their several draft picks to move into the late 1st or early 2nd to grab Weeden, mission accomplished?
It would be fantastic if the Browns could get Richardson and Weeden. Add another good WR to that bunch and the Cleveland offense would be ready to take off.
KC, have you ever seen a draft prospect fall so far, so quickly as Vontaze Burfict?
No one comes to mind. He had 1st round potential at one point and now the odds are he won't even be drafted. That drop cost him millions of dollars.
Kc, kinda a negative question but who do you think might be the biggest NFL bust that will be taken tonight?
Not knocking Tannehill, but if he is selected with the No. 8 pick, the expectations for him will be through the roof. I think he can be a good QB but not as good as those expectations, so therefore he has a good chance of being labeled a bust.
Who does Stephen Hill remind you of? Any shot that he is a big star?
He was ranked No. 1 on that WR article. Someone on Twitter yesterday said he would be a good pick for the Jets and that made me think he could be another Wesley Walker.
Here's a link to that top 10 WR article - http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2012/story/_/page/insiderJoynerDraftWRRanking/ranking-2012-nfl-draft-top-10-receivers-nfl
Mike Floyd played quite poorly this year? based on what? his awesome stats despite a noodle armed QB, or the fact that he is the best blocking WR in the country? (sarcasm)
It's amazing how angry people got that I pointed out how bad Floyd's stats were last year. They made excuses left and right as to how the ND offense held him back, but Rueben Randle posted great numbers in an LSU offense that was just as limited playcalling and QB-wise as ND's offense.
Would KC really take Barron at #11 with other more pressing needs such as ILB, NT, OG and WR??
The thing about WR is this draft is chock full of quality WR targets. The Chiefs also have some WR talent on their roster. I could see aiming for Barron but would probably think they should go the defensive front seven before going for a secondary player.
yeah, the biggest relief about trading for Griffin is I don't have to worry about Washington taking Tannehill 6th... Im sure they would have if Cleveland had beaten them to the #2 pick
Tannehill to Washington - that would have the makings of a nightmare.
The Browns are a mess. Who's looking smarter and smarter by the minute?
The Browns were bad in many of Modell's seasons, but they really didn't have a run like the one they have had since their return to the NFL. Hard to believe Cleveland fans would be pining for Modell's tenure, but from an on-field perspective, it would make sense.
Long shot, but is there any way Weeden has just as good of a career as Luck or RG3?
If Weeden was put into the right offense and ran off a Kurt Warner like run of seasons in his 30s, it could happen that his career would be just as good. Not likely, but possible.
KC, I don't think I've seen one player be more all over the mock draft boards this year then Luke Kuechly. Where do you think he will go?
It's hard to believe he isn't valued more. The NFL has some of the worst tackling in its history and he is a tackling machine. Someone will take him in the top 15.
If you're looking for a DB in the late first round, would you rather take Harrison Smith or Janoris Jenkins?
Bills are rumored to be interested in the 3 pick, would the Vikings really want to move that far down? Who would they want at 10, Floyd? Reiff?
If the Vikings received enough trade value in return, why not trade down? They have a ton of holes on that roster and need quantity as much as quality from this draft.
What are the chances Coby Fleener goes to San Francisco?
Hey, New England had a great offense with two flex tight ends, so why not? Only problem is Harbaugh's offense usually only spends about 20-25 percent of its targets/completions on throws to the tight end, and that didn't change even when Harbaugh had Fleener and Luck (or it didn't change by much). Can't see the Niners making this move.
How does Tannehill at the #8 spot compare to Jake Locker at the #8 spot last year?
He's better in the sense that Locker had a long history of subpar play. Tannehill has played well for a reasonable portion of his short career as a starting college QB.
Better chance of 2 Stanford or 2 Alabama players going in the Top 10?
What are your thoughts on the Colts pretty much coming out and telling everyone their pick? Fans love to wait and see if they get a suprise
They pretty much gave up that info a long time ago. Might as well make it official so that people can concentrate on the No. 3 pick.
is it possible for the HOUSTON TEXANS to get M.FLOYD wr in the draft tonight without trading down
The WR corps in this draft is so deep that even if Floyd doesn't make it down that far (and the odds are he won't), Houston could still get a great WR add to their roster.
RG3 IN FANTASY ?? CAM NEWTON TYPE NUMBERS ??
Watch ESPN.com after the first two picks are made. I've got an article that will be posted then that details the fantasy value of both Luck and RG3.
Unless, of course, some crazy trade happens and Luck or RG3 end up going somewhere other than Indy and Washington.
KC, how deep is the CB corps in this draft, relative to the WR corps?
Not very. I saw as many as four current college football players who would be rated higher than every CB except Claiborne and some of them would rate higher than him.
So if the WR position is so deep this year, why is Blackmon so prized, KC? Is he really worthy of a top six pick?
He's a bell cow WR, someone a team can throw 150 passes to and not have to be concerned about his productivity dropping off because of the pass volume. There is a lot of value in that type of pick but in my estimation it doesn't make him a great top 10 pick.
Hi KC - Is YPA the only metric you use for CBs? I was wondering if yards per play would be a better metric - the yards that the corner's assignment gives up per team passing play (to account for coverage that makes the QB look elsewhere)
It's the primary metric but definitely not the only one. Having said that, I'm in the planning stages of making some changes to the CB metric system that will parse some of the metrics in even greater detail.
Who would be your top 5 second round steals?
Well, if Fleener makes it to round two, he's tops on the list. Same goes for Randle. Brandon Boykin had fantastic numbers last year.
If Barkley came out early, Would we be seeing him #1?
Barkley is a top-notch QB prospect but let's not forget that he has Robert Woods and Marquise Lee. No other QB in college football had a WR combo of that caliber and yet other QBs had better stats than Barkley (although some of that has to do with the USC system).
In a nutshell, he'd be one of the top 3, but my guess is he would be No. 3.
Who do you think is the best fit if the Chargers go 3-4 OLB at 18: Upshaw, Mercilus, Jones, or Perry?
Not sold on Perry, as he had only 3.5 one-on-one sacks last year. Would take Upshaw first out of that group.
Where will Jared Crick land? What a slide for him!
There was a time he was seen as being close to Suh's caliber.
I'd love to see the Ravens scoop up Hightower, do you really think he'll fall all the way to 29?
Can't see that happening.
Barkley barring a letdown he'll be the #1 QB for sure in 2013, so unless he turns out like Leinart he made the right decision going back
He'll have some competition for that spot but with Woods, Lee and the rest of the completely loaded USC offense, it would be a shock if he didn't land that No. 1 spot in 2013 by season's end.
How do you best measure the quality of a team's pass rush? Seattle is said to need one but they only play 1 Leo and had a top 10 DEF and a probowl secondary, do they really 'need' a pass rush that bad?
There are a number of ways but I concentrate on two - their ability to get one-on-one sacks (sacks that occur in the pocket within 3 seconds of the snap) and bad decision rate (how often they force a QB into errors, many of which happen because of a pass rush).
What's the downside of the Rams taking Kuechly and moving him to OLB?
They need tacklers on that defense but he's the type of player a team wants as close to the middle of the field as possible.
Do you see the 49ers picking offense or defense in the 1st round? and which position?
Offense. The Niners have to know they can't expect a repeat of the 2011 season where they had a combination of good play and extremely good luck on offense. They have to get more talent to offset when the luck starts going bad.
What do you think of David Wilson out of Virginia Tech
Like him a lot but teams aren't valuing RBs very highly right now (see the RB FA pool), so he might not go as high in the draft as he would if that were not the case. I'd look for him to be a starter in the near future wherever he lands up.
More important for the Packers: OLB, DE, S, or CB?
Safety. They have to shore up that pass D.
2 questions. If the Vikings move to 10, what do they gain in picks? And if it was up to you who do they take at 10?
Not sure what they would gain in picks. Getting Reiff at No. 10 makes sense and then following that up with a vertical WR.
By the end of this season, will the Eagles look smarter for signign Demeco Ryans and not taking Luke Kuechly?
Keuchly is great at making tackles 5 yards past the LOS, what about impact plays?? TFL, Sacks, etc.
Linda hit it on the head. Kuechly is great in many respects but the Eagles got Ryans because of what he does outside of tackling.
Well, the hour has flown by today. Quick notes before closing out. I will be taking part in an ESPN.com draft chat starting at 7 PM (along with many other ESPN.com writers). The TFS material is always posted on Twitter @KCJoynerTFS. Hope to see you all in tonight's chat!